基于人口流动模型的“民工荒”问题研究
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摘要
2004年以后,我国沿海地区首次出现了“民工荒”的现象。近几年来,这一现象开始向我国内陆地区蔓延,成为我国劳动力市场供给方面一个十分突出的问题。2010年春,“民工荒”现象在我国愈演愈烈,特别是那些经历了金融海啸的冲击后,在全球经济的逐渐复苏,用工企业重新恢复生产之时,招工难又成为他们面临的一项难题。根据统计,2010年东部沿海地区出现大规模的用工荒,仅珠三角地区的缺口就超过200万。“民工荒”现象主要存在于劳动密集型企业之中,这些企业的用工对象主要就是进城务工的农村剩余劳动力,由于用工企业不能及时找到足够的劳动力进行生产,从而使这些企业无法有效的组织生产,这样不但对企业的生产和信誉造成不良影响,同时也在一定程度上影响了我国经济的健康发展。
本文以人口流动模型为工具,以“民工荒”为主线,研究我国在大量剩余劳动力存在的情况下发生“民工荒”问题的原因及其解决思路。文章首先对我国“民工荒”的背景、特征进行相关的描述;其次通过对刘易斯模型、费景汉-拉尼斯模型和托达罗模型等西方经典的人口流动模型的分析,来解释我国“民工荒”现象产生的原因,提出我国“民工荒”产生的原因主要是产业结构的调整﹑预期收入差距的变化﹑城市失业率的提高以及打工红利的下降;然后将托达罗模型扩展,把心理荣誉感和幸福感指数两个因素加入到托达罗模型之中,进而从心理状态来解释我国“民工荒”现象的成因;最终在此基础上,论证了破解我国“民工荒”问题的策略:加快产业结构升级与产业梯度转移﹑完善农村剩余劳动力的流动机制﹑建立灵活的劳动力供给机制﹑加强农村基础教育和农民工技能培训﹑提高农民工整体素质和大力发展农村经济。
Coastal areas in China since 2004 firstly appeared a phenomenon called“shortage of off-farm workers”.In recent years, this phenomenon began to spread inland areas of China, as a Serious problem in the labor market.“Shortage of off-farm workers”intensified in spring 2010,especially some factories who experienced the impact of financial crisis were going to resume production. Labor shortages also became a prominent issue.According to the statistics in 2010, the eastern coastal areas of large-scale labor shortage, only the gap in the Pearl River Delta region reach to more than 200 millions, of which have the existence of the business employment gap.“Shortage of off-farm workers”is primarily in labor-intensive enterprises.Among the main targets of these enterprises is the employment of migrant rural surplus labor. However, labor companies can not find enough workers who have both time and labor ability.The results not only impacts the production and the reputation but also impacts China's economic development.
In this paper, which makes the population floating model as a tool and“Shortage of off-farm workers”as the main line to research the cause of the problem of“shortage of off-farm workers”and solutions to the problem.Firstly the article introduced the background and the characteristics of the labor shortage. Secondly, this article analyzes the reasons for“Shortage of off-farm workers”through the Lewis model, Fei-Ranis model and the Todaro model. The main cause of“shortage of off-farm workers”are the adjustment of industrial structure,expected income gap between the urban unemployment rate increased and the lower profits to work in the city.And then added two factors into Todaro model--honor and happiness.Finally,the article demonstrated to resolve“shortage of off-farm workers”problem strategy: to accelerate industrial upgrading and improve industrial gradient transfer,to establish a flexible mechanism for frural surplus labors,strengthen rural basic education and skills training for migrant workers,to improve the overall quality of farmers and to develop the rural economy.
本文以人口流动模型为工具,以“民工荒”为主线,研究我国在大量剩余劳动力存在的情况下发生“民工荒”问题的原因及其解决思路。文章首先对我国“民工荒”的背景、特征进行相关的描述;其次通过对刘易斯模型、费景汉-拉尼斯模型和托达罗模型等西方经典的人口流动模型的分析,来解释我国“民工荒”现象产生的原因,提出我国“民工荒”产生的原因主要是产业结构的调整﹑预期收入差距的变化﹑城市失业率的提高以及打工红利的下降;然后将托达罗模型扩展,把心理荣誉感和幸福感指数两个因素加入到托达罗模型之中,进而从心理状态来解释我国“民工荒”现象的成因;最终在此基础上,论证了破解我国“民工荒”问题的策略:加快产业结构升级与产业梯度转移﹑完善农村剩余劳动力的流动机制﹑建立灵活的劳动力供给机制﹑加强农村基础教育和农民工技能培训﹑提高农民工整体素质和大力发展农村经济。
Coastal areas in China since 2004 firstly appeared a phenomenon called“shortage of off-farm workers”.In recent years, this phenomenon began to spread inland areas of China, as a Serious problem in the labor market.“Shortage of off-farm workers”intensified in spring 2010,especially some factories who experienced the impact of financial crisis were going to resume production. Labor shortages also became a prominent issue.According to the statistics in 2010, the eastern coastal areas of large-scale labor shortage, only the gap in the Pearl River Delta region reach to more than 200 millions, of which have the existence of the business employment gap.“Shortage of off-farm workers”is primarily in labor-intensive enterprises.Among the main targets of these enterprises is the employment of migrant rural surplus labor. However, labor companies can not find enough workers who have both time and labor ability.The results not only impacts the production and the reputation but also impacts China's economic development.
In this paper, which makes the population floating model as a tool and“Shortage of off-farm workers”as the main line to research the cause of the problem of“shortage of off-farm workers”and solutions to the problem.Firstly the article introduced the background and the characteristics of the labor shortage. Secondly, this article analyzes the reasons for“Shortage of off-farm workers”through the Lewis model, Fei-Ranis model and the Todaro model. The main cause of“shortage of off-farm workers”are the adjustment of industrial structure,expected income gap between the urban unemployment rate increased and the lower profits to work in the city.And then added two factors into Todaro model--honor and happiness.Finally,the article demonstrated to resolve“shortage of off-farm workers”problem strategy: to accelerate industrial upgrading and improve industrial gradient transfer,to establish a flexible mechanism for frural surplus labors,strengthen rural basic education and skills training for migrant workers,to improve the overall quality of farmers and to develop the rural economy.
引文
[1]郭熙保.发展经济学经典论著选[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1998.
[2]黄卫平.经济发展[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1999.
[3]谭崇台.发展经济学[M].太原:山西经济出版社,1999.
[4]刘国平,褚玉静.“民工荒”现象的经济学分析[J].经济研究导刊,2008(29):162-163.
[5]方慧.“民工荒”现象的经济学解释[J].山东财政学院学报,2006(03):8-12.
[6]张杰飞.基于二元结构人口流动模型的“民工荒”现象分析[J].理论探讨,2008(03):42-43.
[7]杨薇,张宏.基于刘易斯模型的“民工荒”问题研究[J].现代商贸工业,2010(23):177-178.
[8]周健.劳动力梯度转移模型探讨及其应用[J].兰州学刊,2008(01):88-90.
[9]章剑卫.用工短缺与政府责任[D].杭州:浙江大学,2005.
[10]吴红宇.农村劳动力迁移动机与制度冲突研究[D].广州:暨南大学,2007.
[11]蔡昉.劳动力无限供给时代结束[J].金融经济,2008(03):33-36.
[12]侯东民.民工荒并不预示着劳动力短缺[J].金融博览,2010(04):25-26.
[13]姚先国,来君.二元社会结构中的工资决定模型与人口流动——当前“民工荒”现象分析[J].经济研究, 2005(08):13-15.
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[15]蔡昉,王美艳.“民工荒”现象的经济学分析[J].广东社会科学,2005(02):55-57.
[16]孙立梅,潘璠,张艳妮.民工荒与中国“刘易斯拐点”的关系研究[J].中国集体经济,2008(13):76-79.
[17]周涵.基于公共政策视野的珠三角“民工荒”问题及其对策研究[J].特区经济, 2007(02):34-38
[18]牟宇峰,高向东.人口红利与劳动力短缺[J].经济师,2009(03):46-48.
[19]胡道明.浅析劳动力无限供给与“民工荒”的现实悖论[J].当代经济,2008,12(04):17-19.
[20]王树坤.“民工荒”现象并非偶然[J].北方经济,2005(14):15-17.
[21]周生军.促进循环经济发展的财税政策研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2007.
[22]辛宝海.改革开放以来中国二元经济理论研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2008.
[23]杨靳,廖少廉.美国农村人口迁移与启示[J].人口学刊,2001(04):23-28.
[24]杨殿闯.“民工荒”-基于劳动力市场分割框架下的解释[J].经济研究导刊, 2007(19):59-61.
[25]张宗坪.“刘易斯拐点在我国已经出现”证伪[J].山东经济,2008(02):61-65.
[26]魏下海.技术劳动力短缺的影响因素及其对生产率的影响[J].经济科学,2010(06):90-98.
[27]李丽纯,李灿.关于当前我国二元经济结构转型困境的几个理论问题分析[J].湖南省社会主义学院学报,2004(03):52-54.
[28]魏下海.技术劳动力短缺的影响因素及其对生产率的影响[J].经济科学,2010(06):90-98.
[29]杨靳.“民工潮”与“民工荒”的经济学分析[J].集美大学学报,2009(02):36-38.
[30]李帅,徐广军.开放经济下的中国城市化二元经济模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2006(05):78-81.
[31]寇凤超.解决我国劳动用工短缺问题的对策探讨[J].北方经济,2009(11):14-16.
[32]胡道明.浅析劳动力无限供给与“民工荒”的现实悖论[J].管理世界,2008(04):44-45.
[33]任爱飞,田雯.浅析“民工荒”的原因及对策[J].党史博采,2009(02):20-21.
[34]蔡昉,都阳.迁移的双重动因及其政策含义[J].中国人口科学,2002(04):1-5.
[35]李培林.中国进城农民工的经济社会分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[36]王卓超.企业用工短缺现象浅析[J].山东纺织经济,2010(09):37-38.
[37]胡伟清,张宗益.农民工劳动供给行为的理论分析[J].理论与改革,2007(04):77-79.
[38]胡艳霞.民工荒的时代意蕴[J].经济研究导刊,2009(04):122-125.
[39]罗永泰.技术工人短缺与技能人才激励机制设计[J].经济经纬,2005(06):81-84.
[40]杨海军,张河水,侯晓琪.劳动力短缺与区域经济发展[J].南昌航空大学学报,2008(04):82-84.
[41]许军,周芬.我国区域差异的现状原因和对策[J].当代经理人,2006(21):57-58.
[42] Lewis,W.A. Economic Development with Unlimited Supply of Labour [M].Chicago:The Manchester School,1954.
[43] Todaro,M.P. A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. [M].New York:American Economic Reviews,1963.
[44] Jorgenson,D.W. The Development of a Ddual Economy [M].Chicago:Economic Journal,1961.
[2]黄卫平.经济发展[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1999.
[3]谭崇台.发展经济学[M].太原:山西经济出版社,1999.
[4]刘国平,褚玉静.“民工荒”现象的经济学分析[J].经济研究导刊,2008(29):162-163.
[5]方慧.“民工荒”现象的经济学解释[J].山东财政学院学报,2006(03):8-12.
[6]张杰飞.基于二元结构人口流动模型的“民工荒”现象分析[J].理论探讨,2008(03):42-43.
[7]杨薇,张宏.基于刘易斯模型的“民工荒”问题研究[J].现代商贸工业,2010(23):177-178.
[8]周健.劳动力梯度转移模型探讨及其应用[J].兰州学刊,2008(01):88-90.
[9]章剑卫.用工短缺与政府责任[D].杭州:浙江大学,2005.
[10]吴红宇.农村劳动力迁移动机与制度冲突研究[D].广州:暨南大学,2007.
[11]蔡昉.劳动力无限供给时代结束[J].金融经济,2008(03):33-36.
[12]侯东民.民工荒并不预示着劳动力短缺[J].金融博览,2010(04):25-26.
[13]姚先国,来君.二元社会结构中的工资决定模型与人口流动——当前“民工荒”现象分析[J].经济研究, 2005(08):13-15.
[14]高琳娜.对我国民工短缺现象的理论分析与政策建议[D].厦门:厦门大学,2006.
[15]蔡昉,王美艳.“民工荒”现象的经济学分析[J].广东社会科学,2005(02):55-57.
[16]孙立梅,潘璠,张艳妮.民工荒与中国“刘易斯拐点”的关系研究[J].中国集体经济,2008(13):76-79.
[17]周涵.基于公共政策视野的珠三角“民工荒”问题及其对策研究[J].特区经济, 2007(02):34-38
[18]牟宇峰,高向东.人口红利与劳动力短缺[J].经济师,2009(03):46-48.
[19]胡道明.浅析劳动力无限供给与“民工荒”的现实悖论[J].当代经济,2008,12(04):17-19.
[20]王树坤.“民工荒”现象并非偶然[J].北方经济,2005(14):15-17.
[21]周生军.促进循环经济发展的财税政策研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2007.
[22]辛宝海.改革开放以来中国二元经济理论研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2008.
[23]杨靳,廖少廉.美国农村人口迁移与启示[J].人口学刊,2001(04):23-28.
[24]杨殿闯.“民工荒”-基于劳动力市场分割框架下的解释[J].经济研究导刊, 2007(19):59-61.
[25]张宗坪.“刘易斯拐点在我国已经出现”证伪[J].山东经济,2008(02):61-65.
[26]魏下海.技术劳动力短缺的影响因素及其对生产率的影响[J].经济科学,2010(06):90-98.
[27]李丽纯,李灿.关于当前我国二元经济结构转型困境的几个理论问题分析[J].湖南省社会主义学院学报,2004(03):52-54.
[28]魏下海.技术劳动力短缺的影响因素及其对生产率的影响[J].经济科学,2010(06):90-98.
[29]杨靳.“民工潮”与“民工荒”的经济学分析[J].集美大学学报,2009(02):36-38.
[30]李帅,徐广军.开放经济下的中国城市化二元经济模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2006(05):78-81.
[31]寇凤超.解决我国劳动用工短缺问题的对策探讨[J].北方经济,2009(11):14-16.
[32]胡道明.浅析劳动力无限供给与“民工荒”的现实悖论[J].管理世界,2008(04):44-45.
[33]任爱飞,田雯.浅析“民工荒”的原因及对策[J].党史博采,2009(02):20-21.
[34]蔡昉,都阳.迁移的双重动因及其政策含义[J].中国人口科学,2002(04):1-5.
[35]李培林.中国进城农民工的经济社会分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[36]王卓超.企业用工短缺现象浅析[J].山东纺织经济,2010(09):37-38.
[37]胡伟清,张宗益.农民工劳动供给行为的理论分析[J].理论与改革,2007(04):77-79.
[38]胡艳霞.民工荒的时代意蕴[J].经济研究导刊,2009(04):122-125.
[39]罗永泰.技术工人短缺与技能人才激励机制设计[J].经济经纬,2005(06):81-84.
[40]杨海军,张河水,侯晓琪.劳动力短缺与区域经济发展[J].南昌航空大学学报,2008(04):82-84.
[41]许军,周芬.我国区域差异的现状原因和对策[J].当代经理人,2006(21):57-58.
[42] Lewis,W.A. Economic Development with Unlimited Supply of Labour [M].Chicago:The Manchester School,1954.
[43] Todaro,M.P. A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. [M].New York:American Economic Reviews,1963.
[44] Jorgenson,D.W. The Development of a Ddual Economy [M].Chicago:Economic Journal,1961.
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