贸易开放与我国经济增长的绿色效率：1986-2010
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国经济经历了持续的高速增长。经济增长的源泉,一方面来自要素投入的增加,另一方面来自经济效率的提高。学界热衷于使用不同方法测算我国全要素生产率,试图解释我国经济效率的变化和演进。经济效率的测算方法不断进步,已经从参数法转为非参数法、从宏观深入中观和微观,并开始考虑经济增长过程中非期望产出的影响。在测算过程中引入非期望产出,已经成为效率测算的主流做法。能够处理非期望产出的DEA模型多种多样,本文将采用DEA-SBM模型测算我国历年经济增长的“绿色效率”,并对测算结果进行分析。
另一方而,目前仍少有文献对我国经济效率变化的原因进行系统研究,即对经济增长“源泉的源泉”研究不足。改革开放以来,中国经济结构发生了巨大变化：一是从计划经济体制向市场经济体制转变；二是从自给自足的封闭经济向开放经济转变。对内市场化改革与对外经济开放相结合,通过提高资源配置效率、推动技术进步、促进入力资本积累以及发挥规模效应等大大改善了我国的经济效率。本文将研究重点集中于贸易开放对我国经济增长绿色效率的影响,并利用省际面板数据对该影响进行实证检验。学界着重于研究贸易开放的经济增长效应,但对贸易开放与绿色效率之间的关系研究相对不足。本文研究将为看待贸易开放和我国经济增长的关系提供新的视角。
本文研究表明,我国许多省份绿色效率值较低,经济增长质量不高。各省经济增长的绿色效率值并没有明显的统一变化趋势。东部地区效率值最高,并呈现波动上升趋势。西部地区效率值变动呈现波浪形特征,但上升趋势不明显。与东部相比,中部上升速度和绝对值稍低。动态演进分析表明,1986-2002年间,我国各省绿色效率值呈现上升趋势,许多省份通过提升绿色效率努力实现赶超。1994-2002年,右侧波峰逐渐平滑,显现单峰特征。东部地区效率提升最为明显,但有些东部省份绿色效率值仍然较低,东部内部出现分化。中部核密度图呈现双峰特征,说明中部各省差距较大。与东、中部地区相比,西部地区效率值出现相反变动趋势,整体绿色效率值不断恶化。收敛性检验表明,自1986年至上世纪90年代中期,我国经济增长绿色效率呈现出δ收敛的趋势,但2002年以后显现出发散趋势。无论是全国还是东、中、西部,都不存在绝对β收敛。其次，采用基于面板数据的单位根检验、协整检验和误差修正模型对国际贸易对经济增长绿色效率的影响进行实证检验。国际贸易通过规模效应、技术溢出以及制度变革等对经济效率具有正面效应；但是如果存在“环境污染避难所”效应，国际贸易对绿色效率可能产生负面效应。结果表明,全国以及各地区绿色生产率与贸易开放程度之间都存在协整关系。就全国而言,贸易开放对我国经济增长的绿色效率具有正向影响,贸易开放对经济增长绿色效率的弹性约为0.0135。但是,对外贸易一期滞后项对经济增长的绿色效率具有显著的负面影响。东部和中部的豪斯曼检验结果与全国相似,贸易开放都有利于提高经济增长的绿色效率。贸易开放对西部地区绿色效率具有长期负面影响。最后,本文就我国如何转变经济增长方式提出对策建议。
China's economy has been experieneing rapid growth since the reform and opening up policy. The sources of economic growth come from the increase of factor inputs on the one hand and the improvement of economic efficiency on the other. Economists are passionately devoted to the estimate of China's total factor productivity, trying to figure out the trend of the economic efficiency. The methods for the measurement of economic efficiency, including parametric and nonparametric methods, have been striding forward in recent years. The subjects investigated have become deeper, from macro level to medium and even micro level. The method concerning about the influence of undesirable outputs have been studied as well, and have become the mainstream method. This study adopts DEA-SBM model to measure and analyze China's green efficiency of economic growth.
On the other hand, study on the reasons of the changes of China's economic efficiency is not relatively rare. China's economic structure has changed dramatically after the reform and opening up, transiting from planned and close economy to market and open economy. The combination of inner reform and opening up promotes the improvement of economic efficiency through facilitating the resource allocation efficiency, stimulating technology progresses and human resource capital accommodation and achieving economies of scale. This paper focuses on the impact of trade openness and analyzes its influence on economic efficiency by empirical study through panel data. The correlation between economic growth and international trade has been sufficiently studied, while the research on the relationship between trade and green efficiency is to be further researched. This study tries to provide a new angle for analyzing the relationship between trade and economic growth.
The results show that China's green efficiency is relatively low, demonstrating the poor quality of China's economic growth. The trend of green efficiency greatly differentiates among provinces. The efficiency in eastern region is highest and increases steadily, while that of western area fluctuates in the studied period, and shows no evidence of dramatic improvement. The efficiency of central region shows an upward trend, but the rate and absolute value is lower than the eastern region. Dynamic evolution analysis indicates that green efficiency in overall China is experiencing a stage of consecutive increase. During1994-2002, the peak of the right side is smoothing gradually and the characteristic of single peak is gradually manifested. The green efficiency in eastern region improved dramatically, while the differentiation among this region is becoming bigger. Kernel density estimate of central region was characterized by double-peak, revealing the significant difference among the central provinces. The result of western region was greatly different with that of central and eastern region, which shows that green efficiency in western region as a whole is becoming lower. We can see a trend of δ convergence of China's green efficiency before the middle of1990s through the result of convergence test, while it becomes divergent since2002. No evidence is found for the absolute β convergence, no matter in china as a whole or in the three different regions. This paper also analyzes the correlation between trade and China's green efficiency by adopting panel data-based unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model. International trade can cause positive effect on green efficiency through economies of scale, technology spill-over and institutional reformation, while may cause negative effect as well if the pollution haven hypothesis exists. The empirical result shows that China's green efficiency of economic growth is co-integrated with trade openness. In China as a whole, trade openness has positive influence on the green efficiency, and the long-run elasticity coefficient is0.0135. However, the first order lag of trade openness has dramatic negative effect. The test results of eastern and central region are quite the same with the whole country, indicating that trade openness is beneficial for the improvement of green efficiency in these regions. The result of western region shows that trade openness has negative effect on green efficiency in the long term. Lastly, the paper provides some suggestions for China's economic growth mode transformation
另一方而,目前仍少有文献对我国经济效率变化的原因进行系统研究,即对经济增长“源泉的源泉”研究不足。改革开放以来,中国经济结构发生了巨大变化：一是从计划经济体制向市场经济体制转变；二是从自给自足的封闭经济向开放经济转变。对内市场化改革与对外经济开放相结合,通过提高资源配置效率、推动技术进步、促进入力资本积累以及发挥规模效应等大大改善了我国的经济效率。本文将研究重点集中于贸易开放对我国经济增长绿色效率的影响,并利用省际面板数据对该影响进行实证检验。学界着重于研究贸易开放的经济增长效应,但对贸易开放与绿色效率之间的关系研究相对不足。本文研究将为看待贸易开放和我国经济增长的关系提供新的视角。
本文研究表明,我国许多省份绿色效率值较低,经济增长质量不高。各省经济增长的绿色效率值并没有明显的统一变化趋势。东部地区效率值最高,并呈现波动上升趋势。西部地区效率值变动呈现波浪形特征,但上升趋势不明显。与东部相比,中部上升速度和绝对值稍低。动态演进分析表明,1986-2002年间,我国各省绿色效率值呈现上升趋势,许多省份通过提升绿色效率努力实现赶超。1994-2002年,右侧波峰逐渐平滑,显现单峰特征。东部地区效率提升最为明显,但有些东部省份绿色效率值仍然较低,东部内部出现分化。中部核密度图呈现双峰特征,说明中部各省差距较大。与东、中部地区相比,西部地区效率值出现相反变动趋势,整体绿色效率值不断恶化。收敛性检验表明,自1986年至上世纪90年代中期,我国经济增长绿色效率呈现出δ收敛的趋势,但2002年以后显现出发散趋势。无论是全国还是东、中、西部,都不存在绝对β收敛。其次，采用基于面板数据的单位根检验、协整检验和误差修正模型对国际贸易对经济增长绿色效率的影响进行实证检验。国际贸易通过规模效应、技术溢出以及制度变革等对经济效率具有正面效应；但是如果存在“环境污染避难所”效应，国际贸易对绿色效率可能产生负面效应。结果表明,全国以及各地区绿色生产率与贸易开放程度之间都存在协整关系。就全国而言,贸易开放对我国经济增长的绿色效率具有正向影响,贸易开放对经济增长绿色效率的弹性约为0.0135。但是,对外贸易一期滞后项对经济增长的绿色效率具有显著的负面影响。东部和中部的豪斯曼检验结果与全国相似,贸易开放都有利于提高经济增长的绿色效率。贸易开放对西部地区绿色效率具有长期负面影响。最后,本文就我国如何转变经济增长方式提出对策建议。
China's economy has been experieneing rapid growth since the reform and opening up policy. The sources of economic growth come from the increase of factor inputs on the one hand and the improvement of economic efficiency on the other. Economists are passionately devoted to the estimate of China's total factor productivity, trying to figure out the trend of the economic efficiency. The methods for the measurement of economic efficiency, including parametric and nonparametric methods, have been striding forward in recent years. The subjects investigated have become deeper, from macro level to medium and even micro level. The method concerning about the influence of undesirable outputs have been studied as well, and have become the mainstream method. This study adopts DEA-SBM model to measure and analyze China's green efficiency of economic growth.
On the other hand, study on the reasons of the changes of China's economic efficiency is not relatively rare. China's economic structure has changed dramatically after the reform and opening up, transiting from planned and close economy to market and open economy. The combination of inner reform and opening up promotes the improvement of economic efficiency through facilitating the resource allocation efficiency, stimulating technology progresses and human resource capital accommodation and achieving economies of scale. This paper focuses on the impact of trade openness and analyzes its influence on economic efficiency by empirical study through panel data. The correlation between economic growth and international trade has been sufficiently studied, while the research on the relationship between trade and green efficiency is to be further researched. This study tries to provide a new angle for analyzing the relationship between trade and economic growth.
The results show that China's green efficiency is relatively low, demonstrating the poor quality of China's economic growth. The trend of green efficiency greatly differentiates among provinces. The efficiency in eastern region is highest and increases steadily, while that of western area fluctuates in the studied period, and shows no evidence of dramatic improvement. The efficiency of central region shows an upward trend, but the rate and absolute value is lower than the eastern region. Dynamic evolution analysis indicates that green efficiency in overall China is experiencing a stage of consecutive increase. During1994-2002, the peak of the right side is smoothing gradually and the characteristic of single peak is gradually manifested. The green efficiency in eastern region improved dramatically, while the differentiation among this region is becoming bigger. Kernel density estimate of central region was characterized by double-peak, revealing the significant difference among the central provinces. The result of western region was greatly different with that of central and eastern region, which shows that green efficiency in western region as a whole is becoming lower. We can see a trend of δ convergence of China's green efficiency before the middle of1990s through the result of convergence test, while it becomes divergent since2002. No evidence is found for the absolute β convergence, no matter in china as a whole or in the three different regions. This paper also analyzes the correlation between trade and China's green efficiency by adopting panel data-based unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model. International trade can cause positive effect on green efficiency through economies of scale, technology spill-over and institutional reformation, while may cause negative effect as well if the pollution haven hypothesis exists. The empirical result shows that China's green efficiency of economic growth is co-integrated with trade openness. In China as a whole, trade openness has positive influence on the green efficiency, and the long-run elasticity coefficient is0.0135. However, the first order lag of trade openness has dramatic negative effect. The test results of eastern and central region are quite the same with the whole country, indicating that trade openness is beneficial for the improvement of green efficiency in these regions. The result of western region shows that trade openness has negative effect on green efficiency in the long term. Lastly, the paper provides some suggestions for China's economic growth mode transformation
引文
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