中国农业全要素生产率增长及影响因素研究
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摘要
本文是关于中国农业增长进程中的农业全要素生产率(TFP)的实证研究。农业TFP的提高既是农业增长方式转变的迫切需要,又是农业大国迈向农业强国的关键所在。现有研究比较一致地认为中国农业TFP水平较低,但对农业TFP增长缓慢成因作深入研究的文献很少。本研究的关键问题是究竟是什么原因阻滞了中国农业TFP的增长?研究目标有三：一是把握农业TFP增长的变动规律和演进趋势；二是弄清农业TFP的增长源泉及其内在机理；三是揭示农业TFP增长的决定性影响因素。论文研究思路是：在回顾经济增长理论和TFP理论的基础上,以农业TFP为研究对象,以其在中国农业增长中的重要地位为研究起点。在确定农业TFP增长是中国农业增长的重要源泉的基础上,运用随机前沿分析和数据包络分析相结合的实证方法,对1978～2008年全国、东中西三大区域和29个省区市的农业TFP增长进行系统测度,并深入分析农业TFP增长的变化规律和波动趋势。然后,采用改进的DEA经济增长分析框架考察农业TFP增长在全国、三大区域和29个省区市的农业增长中的贡献效应及其变化规律。最后,采用面板数据模型揭示中国农业TFP增长的决定性影响因素及其影响,并提出提高农业TFP的政策建议。
一、研究内容
研究主要内容包括：(1)确立研究的逻辑起点和分析框架。通过回顾经济增长理论和TFP理论,明确农业TFP的概念内涵、决定因素和测度方法,确立研究的逻辑起点和分析框架。(2)中国农业TFP增长的变化规律和波动趋势分析。运用随机前沿分析和数据包络分析相结合的实证方法,对1978～2008年全国、三大区域和29个省区市农业TFP增长的状态水平进行系统测度,并深入分析农业TFP增长的变化规律、波动趋势和区域差异。(3)农业TFP增长对中国农业增长的贡献效应考察。在回顾农业增长历程和明确农业TFP在中国农业增长中重要地位的基础上,采用改进的DEA经济增长分析框架,考察农业TFP增长在全国、三大地区和29个省区市农业增长中的贡献效应。(4)农业TFP增长的内生因子影响分析。在对内生因子与TFP增长之间内在关系作理论分析的基础上,运用面板数据模型实证检验并揭示出农业TFP增长的内生性决定因素,并讨论内生性决定因素对农业TFP增长的影响。(5)农业TFP增长的外生因子影响分析。在对外生因子与农业TFP增长之间内在关系作理论分析的基础上,采用面板数据模型检验并揭示出农业TFP增长的外生性决定因素,并讨论外生性决定因素对农业TFP增长的影响。
二、主要结论
(1)坚持向以提高农业TFP贡献为目标的集约型增长方式转变,是样本期中国农业取得成功的重要原因,也是未来中国农业发展的基本方向通过对1978～2008年的样本实证,结果表明,无论是在全国层面还是在区域或省际层面上,无论是从样本期还是从样本各阶段来看,农业TFP增长对农业增长的贡献基本上是顺周期的,即当农业TFP的增长较快时,农业产出增长率较高,而当农业TFP增长水平下降时,农业产出增长率则较低。农业增长方式转变可能途径的论证结果表明,在保持现有物质要素投入增长速度不变的前提下,农业TFP的提高是实现中国农业增长方式转变的现实而可能的选择。可见,坚持向以提高农业TFP贡献为目标的集约型增长方式转变,是过去中国农业取得成功的重要原因,也是未来中国农业发展的基本方向。
(2)农业技术进步是当前中国农业TFP增长的核心动力从农业TFP变动的总体分解来看,1978～2008年全国农业TFP在波动中增长了2.5%,其增长的160%源于农业技术进步,而农业技术效率改善贡献度为-60%。从农业TFP变动的时序特征来看,1979～1984年、1985～1991年、1992～1997年、1998～2002年和2003～2008年等阶段,农业技术进步对农业TFP增长贡献度分别为110%、228%、232%、153%和96%,而农业技术效率改善贡献度分别为-10%、-128%、-132%、-53%和7%。从农业TFP变动的空间分布特征来看,东部地区农业TFP增长明显高于中西部地区,尽管东部地区相对中西部地区表现出明显农业技术效率优势,但农业技术进步是其农业TFP增长的主要动力。这些数据表明农业技术进步是当前中国农业TFP增长的核心动力。
(3)中国农业TFP增长的主要障碍是农业技术效率的严重损失,其损失是纯技术效率损失和规模效率损失交织的结果1978～2008年全国农业技术效率均值下降了29.2个百分点,并导致农业TFP增长率下降了1.4个百分点。农业技术效率分解结果表明,1978～2008年纯技术效率和规模效率分别降低了10.4个百分点和20个百分点,且分别导致农业技术效率增长率下降了0.7个百分点。研究结果还表明,在中国现有的农业技术水平下,各省份现有的农业技术发挥程度较低,且各省份农业生产与技术有效生产前沿面的距离逐步扩大。这表明中国现有的农业技术效率还有很大潜力可挖。把这一潜在动力转变为现实动力的突破口在于：一要重视对现有农业技术的推广和扩散,缩小地区效率差距,提高纯技术效率；二要深化市场化改革,促进资本、劳动力等要素有效流动,提高农业生产的规模效率与要素配置效率。
(4)农业TFP的消长与农村经济发展环境、宏观政策走向和制度安排密切相关研究发现,1980～1984年、1985～1991年、1992～1997年、1998～2002年和2003～2008年等阶段的农业TFP增长率分别为5.0%、0.7%、3.4%、3.1%和3.2%。1980～1984年、1992～1996年、2003～2008年农业TFP较高增长的重要原因在于包括家庭联产承包责任制推广、市场化改革推进、统筹城乡发展战略实施等在内的各项利农制度安排,而其上升的特点还体现在中西部对东部地区的追赶效应；而1985～1991年、1997～2002年农业TFP下降的重要原因则在于改革效益的递减和改革的停滞不前,同时前期存在的追赶效应也在消失。
(5)农业技术进步与农业技术效率增进并存的TFP增长是未来中国农业实现可持续发展的理想模式,但具体实现路径要采取差异化政策措施从农业TFP变动的时序增长分解来看,较高的TFP增速是农业技术进步和农业技术效率增进的共同结果,而农业技术进步和农业技术效率增进的不同步是农业TFP增速下滑的内在根源；从农业TFP变动的空间分布特征来看,东部农业TFP增长明显高于中西部,尽管东部相对于中西部表现出明显技术效率优势,但农业技术进步是其农业TFP增长的主要动力。然而,29个省市区农业TFP增长的分解结果显示,省际间农业TFP的增长模式和增长路径存在显著差异,且省际间农业发展所处阶段及经济社会环境差异显著。因此,尽管农业技术进步与农业技术效率增进并存的TFP增长模式是中国农业实现可持续发展的理想模式,但这一理想增长模式需要通过不同路径来实现,也需要采取差异化政策措施来推动。
(6)物质资本深化、人力资本提高对中国农业TFP的增长具有显著的积极作用农业TFP增长的内生因子影响实证结果表明,就农业TFP而言,物质资本、人力资本、研发支出、专业化、外商直接投资与农业TFP均存在显著的正向关系,但进口对农业TFP没有促进作用；就农业TFP增长而言,外商直接投资的增加与农业TFP增长存在负相关关系,研发支出和专业化对农业TFP增长没有显著的影响,而物质资本深化、人力资本提高能够显著地促进农业TFP的增长。所以,加大农业和农村投资力度对中国农业TFP的持续增长是十分必要的。
(7)“工业偏向”和“城市偏向”发展战略及其刚性制度是农业TFP增速不够高和增长不稳定的深层次原因农业TFP增长的外生因子影响实证结果表明,农户经营规模偏小阻碍了农业TFP的增长,工业化率的提高对农业TFP增长带来了明显的负影响,财政农业支出比重对农业TFP增长也产生了明显的负影响,工农产品价格“剪刀差”与农业TFP增长呈现出显著的负相关关系,此外,大量高素质的农村劳动力非农化间接地制约了农业TFP的增长。可见,“工业偏向”和“城市偏向”发展战略及其刚性制度是农业TFP增速不够高和增长不稳定的深层次原因。所以,农业TFP的持续增长需要制度创新和体制完善来推动。
三、政策建议
基于全文研究分析,结合中国农业发展中存在的主要问题以及相关文献的研究结论,提高中国农业TFP的政策建议包括：(1)健全技术创新机制,促进农业技术进步。一要转变政府职能为农业技术进步创造良好环境；二要完善农业科研资金筹集机制；三要激活农业科技工作者积极性；四要提高农业自主创新能力。(2)全面完善制度建设,消除各种非效率因素。一是深化土地制度改革,健全农村土地流转机制；二是创新农业经营体制,提高农民的组织化程度；三是深化社会保障制度改革,构建农民均等享受发展成果的体制保障；四是深化财政制度改革,加大公共财政向农村倾斜；五是深化农村金融体制改革,推进金融服务“三农”。(3)健全投资保障机制,优化农业投资方向。一要优化资金来源结构,加大农业投资力度；二要优化农业投资方向,加强对基础设施建设、农村人力资本开发等投资；三要制定合理的区域投资政策,加大中西部农业公共投资；四要加强支农资金管理,提高支农资金使用效率。(4)完善农技推广体系,促进科技成果转化。一要建立健全以农民或农户为导向的农业技术推广服务体系；二要创新资金投入渠道,增加农技推广资金投入。(5)强化强农支农政策,构建对农反哺机制。一方面必须统筹城乡协调发展、构建和谐的城乡关系,这包括从制度供给上消除各种歧视性制度安排,给予农业和农民平等的发展地位；另一方面要继续强化各种强农支农惠农政策,构建对农业的“反哺”机制,促进资源向农业的回流。(6)重视农民能力建设,提高人力资本存量。一是继续加大对农民、农业和农村教育投资力度；二是加快农业教育改革步伐,积极发展职业技术教育；三是重视农民技术技能培训。
四、创新之处
(1)全方位透视了中国农业TFP增长及构成的变化规律和波动趋势。论文运用随机前沿分析和数据包络分析相结合的实证方法,从静态和动态两个视角,对1978-2008年全国、三大区域和29个省区市农业TFP增长及构成进行了系统测度,并对中国农业TFP增长及构成的变化规律和波动趋势进行了系统地评价。
(2)弄清了中国农业TFP的增长源泉及其内在机理。论文在把TFP增长分解为农业技术进步和农业技术效率改进的基础上,将农业技术效率分解为纯技术效率和规模效率,进而对中国农业TFP增长及构成进行了考察。研究发现,农业技术进步是当前中国农业TFP增长的核心动力,而农业技术进步和农业技术效率增进的不同步是农业TFP增速下滑的内在根源。
(3)揭示了中国农业TFP增长的内生性决定因素。论文考察了干中学、研究开发、人力资本、专业化和技术溢出等变量对中国农业TFP增长的影响。研究发现,物质资本深化、人力资本提高会显著地促进农业TFP的增长。
(4)拓展了外生因子对中国农业TFP增长的影响分析。论文将现有文献研究中尚未考虑但对中国农业TFP增长有重要的影响因素,如制度变迁、市场化程度、产业政策等变量纳入模型并予以量化分析。研究发现,“工业偏向”和“城市偏向”发展战略及其刚性制度是农业TFP增速不够高和增长不稳定的深层次原因。
This dissertation is focus on the positive research on the agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in the growing process of agriculture in China. The enhancement of agricultural TFP is not only the urgent requirement of the transform of agricultural increasing mode, but also the key of development from a giant country of agriculture to a strong one. The present studies agree that the level of agricultural TFP in China is relatively low, but it is rare that the dissertations in which the researcher does a deeply study on the slow growth of agricultural TFP. The core of this research is to study what are reasons for decelerate the China's agricultural TFP growth, even it is so important to the society. The goals of this research consist of three aspects, one of which is to grasp the law of enhancement of China's agricultural TFP and its tendency of evolution, and then try to understand the growth source and the intrinsic motivation of agriculture in China, and reveal the decisive factors and their implications of the enhancement of China's agricultural TFP.The research is conducted along this process:after reviewing the economic growth theory and TFP theory, performing the systematic measurement and analysis on the enhancement and component of China's agricultural TFP between 1978 and 2008, started from the important position of TFP in China's agricultural growth, with the subject of agricultural TFP, added by the positive frame that is composed by the stochastic frontier analysis and data envelope analysis (DEA), and analysing the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of the growth of China's agricultural TFP; on the previous basis, the improved DEA economic growth analysing frame is conducted to study the contribution effects and laws of variation of agricultural TFP growth in the three levels of state, three regions and 29 provinces. In the following, the decisive factors and mechanism of implications are able to be revealed by the panel data model, and the policy suggestions to agricultural TFP enhancement in China are capable to be proposed ultimately.
1.Research contents
The main contents of this study are composed by the following items:
(1) Establishing a logical starting point and analysing frame of this study. By reviewing and using the economic growth theories and TFP theories for reference, the conception of agricultural TFP, decisive factors and methods of measurement are all clarified, which act as the logical starting point and analysing frame of this study.
(2) Analysing the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of agricultural TFP growth in China. In this section, a combined measurement of stochastic frontier analysis and DEA is going to be performed to identify the state levels of agricultural TFP growth and its components between 1978 and 2008, on the three ranks of state level, three regions (eastern China, middle China and western China), and 29 provinces. In the following, the laws of variation, the tendency of fluctuation and the regional differences have all been analysed thoroughly.
(3) Exploring the contribution effect made by agricultural TFP growth to the growth of agriculture in China. On the base of reviewing the developing process of agriculture in China and clarifying the main factors to agriculture growth, an improved DEA economic growth analysing frame is applied to explore the contribution effect and laws of variation of agricultural TFP in agricultural growth on the levels of state, three regions and 29 provinces.
(4) Analysing the intrinsic factors of the enhancement of agricultural TFP.On the base of theoretical analysis on the intrinsic factors of China's agricultural TFP growth, the panel data model is applied to test and reveal the intrinsic decisive factors of China's agricultural TFP growth, followed by the discussion on the implications caused by these intrinsic decisive factors.
(5) Analysing the extrinsic factors of the enhancement of agricultural TFP. The panel data model is used to test and reveal the extrinsic decisive factors of agricultural TFP growth on the basis of theoretical research of relations between the extrinsic factors and agricultural TFP growth, followed by the discussion on the implications caused by these extrinsic decisive factors.
2. Important conclusions
(1) Insisting on the transformation to the intensive growth mode aiming at the enhancement of TFP contribution is the crucial reason for the success of agriculture in the sample duration, and the fundamental direction of development in the future. The positive research on the samples between 1978 and 2008 shows that no matter on the level of state, region or province, and no matter on the sample period or the different sub-durations of the samples, the contribution of agricultural TFP growth to the output of agriculture is simultaneous, i.e., the rate of increment of output of agriculture is relatively high when the TFP grows fast, and vice versa. The analysis on the possible growth modes for transformation reveals that the real and applicable alternative for transformation of agricultural growth mode is to make progress on agricultural TFP, with the premise that the increasing velocity of current investment of entity factors keeps constant, on which this conclusion can be deduced and verified. It is clear that the consistent transformation to the intensive growth mode of which the goal is to enhance the contribution of agricultural TFP is the crucial reason for the success of China's agriculture, and the fundamental direction in the future development.
(2) The progress of agricultural technologies is the core power of agricultural TFP enhancement. By separating and analysing the factors of agricultural TFP variation, it can be safely concluded that China's agricultural TFP has increased by 2.5% with fluctuation between 1978 and 2008, within which 160% is due to the progress of agricultural technology, but the contribution to the efficiency improvement is-60%. Examining the characteristics of time serial progress of agricultural TFP variation, the contributions of agricultural technology to the agricultural TFP enhancement are 110% from 1979 to 1984,228% from 1985 to 1991,232% from 1992 to 1997,153% from 1998 to 2002 and 96% from 2003 to 2008, with the contributions to the technological efficiency improvement are-10%,-128%,-132%,-53% and 7% respectively. Examining the characteristics of position distribution of agricultural TFP variation, the enhancement in east is significantly higher than the middle and west. Although the advantage of technological efficiency in east is significantly better than middle and west, the progress of agricultural technology has acted as the main source of agricultural TFP enhancement. All those data verifies that the progress of agricultural technology is the core power of China's agricultural TFP growth.
(3) The hindrance that China's agricultural TFP growth is encountering is the serious loss of technical efficiency, which is the cross consequence of pure technology and scale efficiency insufficiency. The mean value of China's agricultural technical efficiency of the whole country decreased by 29.2 percentage points from 1978 to 2008,which caused the growth rate of agricultural TFP decreased by 1.4 percentage points. According to the analysis on separated agricultural technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency decreased 10.4 percentage points and scale efficiency 20 percentage points from 1978 to 2008, which leaded to the reduction of growth rate of agricultural technical efficiency with 0.7 percentage points. The research reveals that the degrees of technology application in the provinces are relatively low, and the gap between agricultural production and technical effective frontier is enlarged gradually, which means that the current agricultural technology is able to be improved. The advancement of agricultural technical efficiency is the potential power of China's agricultural TFP,which the breakthrough point to make real is to accelerate the spreading of current agricultural technologies, reduce the regional differences and enhance the pure technical efficiency, moreover, to strengthen the marketisation reform, boost the effective flow of factors(including capital, labour force etc.) and make progress on the scale and allocative efficiencies of agricultural production.
(4) The fluctuation of agricultural TFP is tightly related to the rural economic environment of development, the direction of macroeconomic policies and regulation assignment. This research discovered that the growth rate of agricultural TFP is 5.0% from 1980 to 1984,0.7% from 1985 to 1991,3.4% from 1992 to 1997,3.1% from 1998 to 2002, and 3.2% from 2003 to 2008, among which the important reason for the increment from 1980 to 1984, from 1992 to 1996 and from 2003 to 2008 was the beneficial regulation assignment to the rural area, including the extension of household contract responsibility system, the progress on marketisation reform, performance of the coordination of urban and rural development strategy etc., which encouraged the producers' initiative significantly, and the feature of enhancement is shown by the catch-up effect of middle and western regions to the east. However, the crucial reason for the reduction of agricultural TFP from 1985 to 1991 and from 1997 to 2002 is the decline of reform benefits and its stagnation, with the disappearance of the catch-up effect in the previous durations.
(5) The TFP growth with coexistence of progress on agricultural technology and agricultural technical efficiency improvement is the ideal mode for the sustainable progress of future agriculture in China, but the distinguished policies are required to make it real. Examining the agricultural TFP variation by separating the durations, the relatively high velocity of TFP growth is always the result of the synchronising progress on advanced technology and its efficiency, but the out-sync progress is the intrinsic reason for the growth velocity of TFP sliding downwards. Examining the agricultural TFP variation on the features of position distribution, the eastern agricultural TFP growth is significantly higher than the middle and west. Although the advantage of technical efficiency in east is more obvious than the middle and west, the progress on agricultural technology acts as the main source of agricultural TFP growth. However, according to the results of exploring the TFP growth variation and the separating consequences of 29 provinces, the inter-provincial TFP growth mode and route are significantly different, and the levels of agriculture and social economy distinguish significantly among different provinces. Therefore, the distinguished policies are required to be applied in order to lead and boost the realisation of the new TFP growth mode with coexistence of progress on advanced technology and technical efficiency improvement.
(6) The deepening of material capital and the increment of human capital will promote the progress of China's agricultural TFP significantly. The positive research on the intrinsic factors of agricultural TFP shows that the agricultural TFP is positively related to material capital, human capital, research and development (R&D) expense, division of labour on the base of specialisation and foreign direct investment (FDI) respectively, except the import to the agricultural TFP. The analysis reveals that the implications to agricultural TFP of different kinds of intrinsic factors are various, within which the growth of TFP is negatively related to the continual progress on FDI, insignificantly influenced by the R&D expense and division of specialisation, and positively related by the continual deepening of capital, advancement of human capital significantly.
(7) The "industry-favoured" and "city-favoured" strategies of development and the rigid regulations are the deep reason for the low-speed increment and instability of agricultural TFP. The positive research on the exogenous implications on agricultural TFP reveals that the growth of agricultural TFP is impeded by the relatively small-size operation by peasants'houses, and obviously hindered by the enhancement of industrialisation rate, ratio of financial expenses for agriculture and the "scissors differential" of prices of industrial and agricultural products, additionally, the agricultural TFP growth is indirectly blocked by the deagriculturalisation of agricultural labourers with high quality. Therefore, the "industry-favoured" and "city-favoured" strategies and their rigid regulations are the deeply reason for the low level and instability of TFP growth velocity, so that the continual progress on TFP needs the promotion of innovated regulation and perfected mechanism.
3.Suggestions on policies
On the base of the analysis in this entire dissertation, the suggestions on policies to enhance the agricultural TFP are able to be concluded with the combination of the main problems in agricultural development and the conclusions of some relevant literatures. They are listed as follows.
(1) Establishing and perfecting the mechanism of technical innovation, promoting the progress of advanced technologies. The first measure is to transfer the function of government in order to create a suitable environment for the agricultural technical advancement; the second one is to reform and perfect the raise mechanism of agricultural science fund; the third one is to perfect the system of agricultural science research, active the agricultural scientists'initiative, and the last one is to raise the storage of agricultural science, make progress on the capacity for independent innovation of agriculture.
(2) Building up a comprehensive perfect system, eliminating all the inefficient factors. The first measure is to deepen the land reform, perfect the land circulation mechanism in the whole rural area; the second one is to create a new mechanism of agricultural operations, enhance the peasants'degree of organisation; the third one is to deepen the reform of social security system, construct a guarantee for the system of equal sharing of development achievements by peasants; the fourth one is to deepen the reform of financial regulations, allocate more fund from the public finance to rural area, and the last one is to deepen the reform of finance system in rural area, promote the services to agriculture.
(3) Perfecting the guarantee mechanism of investment, optimising the agricultural investment. The first measure is to optimise the structure of fund source, allocate more fund to agriculture; the second one is to optimise the direction of investment to agriculture, strengthen the investment to infrastructure construction and human resource development in rural area; the third one is to establish reasonable policy of regional investment, distribute more public investment to the agriculture in middle and western China; and the last one is to strengthen the management of support funds, improve its service efficiency.
(4) Perfecting the system of agricultural technical extension, promoting the transference of technological achievements into reality. The first measure is to establish and perfect a service system of agricultural technologies extension oriented to the peasants or peasants' houses; the second one is to discover the new channel of investment, enhance the investment to agricultural technologies extension.
(5) Strengthening the policies of agricultural support, constructing the financing mechanism to agriculture. On one hand, it is to promote the harmonious development in urban and rural areas, building up the harmonious relationship between them, eliminating all kinds of discriminative regulations, distributing the equal chances for development to agriculture and peasants; on the other hand, it is to continue strengthening the policies of agricultural support, perfect the financing mechanism, and encourage the resources to flow backwards to the agriculture.
(6) Paying attention on the development of peasants'abilities, increase the storage of human capital. The first measure is to keep on investment to education on agriculture; the second one is to accelerate the reform of agricultural education, develop vocational and technical education; and the last one is to grasp the training on technologies, help peasants apply new technologies.
4. Innovations
(1) Performing a panoramic perspective to the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of China's agricultural TFP growth. This dissertation carried out the research on the agricultural TFP growth and its components on levels of state, three regions and 29 provinces between 1978 and 2008 from the stable and dynamic viewpoints respectively, with the positive analysis frame composed by stochastic frontier analysis and data envelope analysis (DEA), and clarified the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of China's agricultural TFP growth.
(2) Revealing the growth source and intrinsic mechanism of China's agricultural TFP.On the base of separation on the TFP growth into agricultural technology progress and technical efficiency improvement, the research divided the agricultural technology efficiency into pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency, and examine the reasons and components of China's agricultural TFP growth. The study discovers that the agricultural technology is the core power of agricultural TFP growth, and the asynchronism between the progress of agricultural technology and technological efficiency is the intrinsic factor of TFP decline.
(3) Revealing the endogenous decisive factor of China's agricultural TFP growth. The implications to China's agricultural TFP growth by some endogenous factors such as "learning by doing", research and development, human capital, specialisation and technical overflow are analysed in this dissertation, from which it can be concluded that the deepening of substantial capital and increment of human resource will put forward the progress of agricultural TFP significantly.
(4) Extending the analysis on the implications of exogenous factors to China's agricultural TFP The dissertation enrols the variables such as regulation assignment, degree of marketisation, production policies and so on, which are important to the agricultural TFP growth but ignored in the previous researches, into the model and perform a quantitative analysis. The research reveals that the "industry-favoured" and "city-favoured" strategies and the rigid regulations are the deeply reasons for the low-speed increment and instability of agricultural TFP.
一、研究内容
研究主要内容包括：(1)确立研究的逻辑起点和分析框架。通过回顾经济增长理论和TFP理论,明确农业TFP的概念内涵、决定因素和测度方法,确立研究的逻辑起点和分析框架。(2)中国农业TFP增长的变化规律和波动趋势分析。运用随机前沿分析和数据包络分析相结合的实证方法,对1978～2008年全国、三大区域和29个省区市农业TFP增长的状态水平进行系统测度,并深入分析农业TFP增长的变化规律、波动趋势和区域差异。(3)农业TFP增长对中国农业增长的贡献效应考察。在回顾农业增长历程和明确农业TFP在中国农业增长中重要地位的基础上,采用改进的DEA经济增长分析框架,考察农业TFP增长在全国、三大地区和29个省区市农业增长中的贡献效应。(4)农业TFP增长的内生因子影响分析。在对内生因子与TFP增长之间内在关系作理论分析的基础上,运用面板数据模型实证检验并揭示出农业TFP增长的内生性决定因素,并讨论内生性决定因素对农业TFP增长的影响。(5)农业TFP增长的外生因子影响分析。在对外生因子与农业TFP增长之间内在关系作理论分析的基础上,采用面板数据模型检验并揭示出农业TFP增长的外生性决定因素,并讨论外生性决定因素对农业TFP增长的影响。
二、主要结论
(1)坚持向以提高农业TFP贡献为目标的集约型增长方式转变,是样本期中国农业取得成功的重要原因,也是未来中国农业发展的基本方向通过对1978～2008年的样本实证,结果表明,无论是在全国层面还是在区域或省际层面上,无论是从样本期还是从样本各阶段来看,农业TFP增长对农业增长的贡献基本上是顺周期的,即当农业TFP的增长较快时,农业产出增长率较高,而当农业TFP增长水平下降时,农业产出增长率则较低。农业增长方式转变可能途径的论证结果表明,在保持现有物质要素投入增长速度不变的前提下,农业TFP的提高是实现中国农业增长方式转变的现实而可能的选择。可见,坚持向以提高农业TFP贡献为目标的集约型增长方式转变,是过去中国农业取得成功的重要原因,也是未来中国农业发展的基本方向。
(2)农业技术进步是当前中国农业TFP增长的核心动力从农业TFP变动的总体分解来看,1978～2008年全国农业TFP在波动中增长了2.5%,其增长的160%源于农业技术进步,而农业技术效率改善贡献度为-60%。从农业TFP变动的时序特征来看,1979～1984年、1985～1991年、1992～1997年、1998～2002年和2003～2008年等阶段,农业技术进步对农业TFP增长贡献度分别为110%、228%、232%、153%和96%,而农业技术效率改善贡献度分别为-10%、-128%、-132%、-53%和7%。从农业TFP变动的空间分布特征来看,东部地区农业TFP增长明显高于中西部地区,尽管东部地区相对中西部地区表现出明显农业技术效率优势,但农业技术进步是其农业TFP增长的主要动力。这些数据表明农业技术进步是当前中国农业TFP增长的核心动力。
(3)中国农业TFP增长的主要障碍是农业技术效率的严重损失,其损失是纯技术效率损失和规模效率损失交织的结果1978～2008年全国农业技术效率均值下降了29.2个百分点,并导致农业TFP增长率下降了1.4个百分点。农业技术效率分解结果表明,1978～2008年纯技术效率和规模效率分别降低了10.4个百分点和20个百分点,且分别导致农业技术效率增长率下降了0.7个百分点。研究结果还表明,在中国现有的农业技术水平下,各省份现有的农业技术发挥程度较低,且各省份农业生产与技术有效生产前沿面的距离逐步扩大。这表明中国现有的农业技术效率还有很大潜力可挖。把这一潜在动力转变为现实动力的突破口在于：一要重视对现有农业技术的推广和扩散,缩小地区效率差距,提高纯技术效率；二要深化市场化改革,促进资本、劳动力等要素有效流动,提高农业生产的规模效率与要素配置效率。
(4)农业TFP的消长与农村经济发展环境、宏观政策走向和制度安排密切相关研究发现,1980～1984年、1985～1991年、1992～1997年、1998～2002年和2003～2008年等阶段的农业TFP增长率分别为5.0%、0.7%、3.4%、3.1%和3.2%。1980～1984年、1992～1996年、2003～2008年农业TFP较高增长的重要原因在于包括家庭联产承包责任制推广、市场化改革推进、统筹城乡发展战略实施等在内的各项利农制度安排,而其上升的特点还体现在中西部对东部地区的追赶效应；而1985～1991年、1997～2002年农业TFP下降的重要原因则在于改革效益的递减和改革的停滞不前,同时前期存在的追赶效应也在消失。
(5)农业技术进步与农业技术效率增进并存的TFP增长是未来中国农业实现可持续发展的理想模式,但具体实现路径要采取差异化政策措施从农业TFP变动的时序增长分解来看,较高的TFP增速是农业技术进步和农业技术效率增进的共同结果,而农业技术进步和农业技术效率增进的不同步是农业TFP增速下滑的内在根源；从农业TFP变动的空间分布特征来看,东部农业TFP增长明显高于中西部,尽管东部相对于中西部表现出明显技术效率优势,但农业技术进步是其农业TFP增长的主要动力。然而,29个省市区农业TFP增长的分解结果显示,省际间农业TFP的增长模式和增长路径存在显著差异,且省际间农业发展所处阶段及经济社会环境差异显著。因此,尽管农业技术进步与农业技术效率增进并存的TFP增长模式是中国农业实现可持续发展的理想模式,但这一理想增长模式需要通过不同路径来实现,也需要采取差异化政策措施来推动。
(6)物质资本深化、人力资本提高对中国农业TFP的增长具有显著的积极作用农业TFP增长的内生因子影响实证结果表明,就农业TFP而言,物质资本、人力资本、研发支出、专业化、外商直接投资与农业TFP均存在显著的正向关系,但进口对农业TFP没有促进作用；就农业TFP增长而言,外商直接投资的增加与农业TFP增长存在负相关关系,研发支出和专业化对农业TFP增长没有显著的影响,而物质资本深化、人力资本提高能够显著地促进农业TFP的增长。所以,加大农业和农村投资力度对中国农业TFP的持续增长是十分必要的。
(7)“工业偏向”和“城市偏向”发展战略及其刚性制度是农业TFP增速不够高和增长不稳定的深层次原因农业TFP增长的外生因子影响实证结果表明,农户经营规模偏小阻碍了农业TFP的增长,工业化率的提高对农业TFP增长带来了明显的负影响,财政农业支出比重对农业TFP增长也产生了明显的负影响,工农产品价格“剪刀差”与农业TFP增长呈现出显著的负相关关系,此外,大量高素质的农村劳动力非农化间接地制约了农业TFP的增长。可见,“工业偏向”和“城市偏向”发展战略及其刚性制度是农业TFP增速不够高和增长不稳定的深层次原因。所以,农业TFP的持续增长需要制度创新和体制完善来推动。
三、政策建议
基于全文研究分析,结合中国农业发展中存在的主要问题以及相关文献的研究结论,提高中国农业TFP的政策建议包括：(1)健全技术创新机制,促进农业技术进步。一要转变政府职能为农业技术进步创造良好环境；二要完善农业科研资金筹集机制；三要激活农业科技工作者积极性；四要提高农业自主创新能力。(2)全面完善制度建设,消除各种非效率因素。一是深化土地制度改革,健全农村土地流转机制；二是创新农业经营体制,提高农民的组织化程度；三是深化社会保障制度改革,构建农民均等享受发展成果的体制保障；四是深化财政制度改革,加大公共财政向农村倾斜；五是深化农村金融体制改革,推进金融服务“三农”。(3)健全投资保障机制,优化农业投资方向。一要优化资金来源结构,加大农业投资力度；二要优化农业投资方向,加强对基础设施建设、农村人力资本开发等投资；三要制定合理的区域投资政策,加大中西部农业公共投资；四要加强支农资金管理,提高支农资金使用效率。(4)完善农技推广体系,促进科技成果转化。一要建立健全以农民或农户为导向的农业技术推广服务体系；二要创新资金投入渠道,增加农技推广资金投入。(5)强化强农支农政策,构建对农反哺机制。一方面必须统筹城乡协调发展、构建和谐的城乡关系,这包括从制度供给上消除各种歧视性制度安排,给予农业和农民平等的发展地位；另一方面要继续强化各种强农支农惠农政策,构建对农业的“反哺”机制,促进资源向农业的回流。(6)重视农民能力建设,提高人力资本存量。一是继续加大对农民、农业和农村教育投资力度；二是加快农业教育改革步伐,积极发展职业技术教育；三是重视农民技术技能培训。
四、创新之处
(1)全方位透视了中国农业TFP增长及构成的变化规律和波动趋势。论文运用随机前沿分析和数据包络分析相结合的实证方法,从静态和动态两个视角,对1978-2008年全国、三大区域和29个省区市农业TFP增长及构成进行了系统测度,并对中国农业TFP增长及构成的变化规律和波动趋势进行了系统地评价。
(2)弄清了中国农业TFP的增长源泉及其内在机理。论文在把TFP增长分解为农业技术进步和农业技术效率改进的基础上,将农业技术效率分解为纯技术效率和规模效率,进而对中国农业TFP增长及构成进行了考察。研究发现,农业技术进步是当前中国农业TFP增长的核心动力,而农业技术进步和农业技术效率增进的不同步是农业TFP增速下滑的内在根源。
(3)揭示了中国农业TFP增长的内生性决定因素。论文考察了干中学、研究开发、人力资本、专业化和技术溢出等变量对中国农业TFP增长的影响。研究发现,物质资本深化、人力资本提高会显著地促进农业TFP的增长。
(4)拓展了外生因子对中国农业TFP增长的影响分析。论文将现有文献研究中尚未考虑但对中国农业TFP增长有重要的影响因素,如制度变迁、市场化程度、产业政策等变量纳入模型并予以量化分析。研究发现,“工业偏向”和“城市偏向”发展战略及其刚性制度是农业TFP增速不够高和增长不稳定的深层次原因。
This dissertation is focus on the positive research on the agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in the growing process of agriculture in China. The enhancement of agricultural TFP is not only the urgent requirement of the transform of agricultural increasing mode, but also the key of development from a giant country of agriculture to a strong one. The present studies agree that the level of agricultural TFP in China is relatively low, but it is rare that the dissertations in which the researcher does a deeply study on the slow growth of agricultural TFP. The core of this research is to study what are reasons for decelerate the China's agricultural TFP growth, even it is so important to the society. The goals of this research consist of three aspects, one of which is to grasp the law of enhancement of China's agricultural TFP and its tendency of evolution, and then try to understand the growth source and the intrinsic motivation of agriculture in China, and reveal the decisive factors and their implications of the enhancement of China's agricultural TFP.The research is conducted along this process:after reviewing the economic growth theory and TFP theory, performing the systematic measurement and analysis on the enhancement and component of China's agricultural TFP between 1978 and 2008, started from the important position of TFP in China's agricultural growth, with the subject of agricultural TFP, added by the positive frame that is composed by the stochastic frontier analysis and data envelope analysis (DEA), and analysing the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of the growth of China's agricultural TFP; on the previous basis, the improved DEA economic growth analysing frame is conducted to study the contribution effects and laws of variation of agricultural TFP growth in the three levels of state, three regions and 29 provinces. In the following, the decisive factors and mechanism of implications are able to be revealed by the panel data model, and the policy suggestions to agricultural TFP enhancement in China are capable to be proposed ultimately.
1.Research contents
The main contents of this study are composed by the following items:
(1) Establishing a logical starting point and analysing frame of this study. By reviewing and using the economic growth theories and TFP theories for reference, the conception of agricultural TFP, decisive factors and methods of measurement are all clarified, which act as the logical starting point and analysing frame of this study.
(2) Analysing the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of agricultural TFP growth in China. In this section, a combined measurement of stochastic frontier analysis and DEA is going to be performed to identify the state levels of agricultural TFP growth and its components between 1978 and 2008, on the three ranks of state level, three regions (eastern China, middle China and western China), and 29 provinces. In the following, the laws of variation, the tendency of fluctuation and the regional differences have all been analysed thoroughly.
(3) Exploring the contribution effect made by agricultural TFP growth to the growth of agriculture in China. On the base of reviewing the developing process of agriculture in China and clarifying the main factors to agriculture growth, an improved DEA economic growth analysing frame is applied to explore the contribution effect and laws of variation of agricultural TFP in agricultural growth on the levels of state, three regions and 29 provinces.
(4) Analysing the intrinsic factors of the enhancement of agricultural TFP.On the base of theoretical analysis on the intrinsic factors of China's agricultural TFP growth, the panel data model is applied to test and reveal the intrinsic decisive factors of China's agricultural TFP growth, followed by the discussion on the implications caused by these intrinsic decisive factors.
(5) Analysing the extrinsic factors of the enhancement of agricultural TFP. The panel data model is used to test and reveal the extrinsic decisive factors of agricultural TFP growth on the basis of theoretical research of relations between the extrinsic factors and agricultural TFP growth, followed by the discussion on the implications caused by these extrinsic decisive factors.
2. Important conclusions
(1) Insisting on the transformation to the intensive growth mode aiming at the enhancement of TFP contribution is the crucial reason for the success of agriculture in the sample duration, and the fundamental direction of development in the future. The positive research on the samples between 1978 and 2008 shows that no matter on the level of state, region or province, and no matter on the sample period or the different sub-durations of the samples, the contribution of agricultural TFP growth to the output of agriculture is simultaneous, i.e., the rate of increment of output of agriculture is relatively high when the TFP grows fast, and vice versa. The analysis on the possible growth modes for transformation reveals that the real and applicable alternative for transformation of agricultural growth mode is to make progress on agricultural TFP, with the premise that the increasing velocity of current investment of entity factors keeps constant, on which this conclusion can be deduced and verified. It is clear that the consistent transformation to the intensive growth mode of which the goal is to enhance the contribution of agricultural TFP is the crucial reason for the success of China's agriculture, and the fundamental direction in the future development.
(2) The progress of agricultural technologies is the core power of agricultural TFP enhancement. By separating and analysing the factors of agricultural TFP variation, it can be safely concluded that China's agricultural TFP has increased by 2.5% with fluctuation between 1978 and 2008, within which 160% is due to the progress of agricultural technology, but the contribution to the efficiency improvement is-60%. Examining the characteristics of time serial progress of agricultural TFP variation, the contributions of agricultural technology to the agricultural TFP enhancement are 110% from 1979 to 1984,228% from 1985 to 1991,232% from 1992 to 1997,153% from 1998 to 2002 and 96% from 2003 to 2008, with the contributions to the technological efficiency improvement are-10%,-128%,-132%,-53% and 7% respectively. Examining the characteristics of position distribution of agricultural TFP variation, the enhancement in east is significantly higher than the middle and west. Although the advantage of technological efficiency in east is significantly better than middle and west, the progress of agricultural technology has acted as the main source of agricultural TFP enhancement. All those data verifies that the progress of agricultural technology is the core power of China's agricultural TFP growth.
(3) The hindrance that China's agricultural TFP growth is encountering is the serious loss of technical efficiency, which is the cross consequence of pure technology and scale efficiency insufficiency. The mean value of China's agricultural technical efficiency of the whole country decreased by 29.2 percentage points from 1978 to 2008,which caused the growth rate of agricultural TFP decreased by 1.4 percentage points. According to the analysis on separated agricultural technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency decreased 10.4 percentage points and scale efficiency 20 percentage points from 1978 to 2008, which leaded to the reduction of growth rate of agricultural technical efficiency with 0.7 percentage points. The research reveals that the degrees of technology application in the provinces are relatively low, and the gap between agricultural production and technical effective frontier is enlarged gradually, which means that the current agricultural technology is able to be improved. The advancement of agricultural technical efficiency is the potential power of China's agricultural TFP,which the breakthrough point to make real is to accelerate the spreading of current agricultural technologies, reduce the regional differences and enhance the pure technical efficiency, moreover, to strengthen the marketisation reform, boost the effective flow of factors(including capital, labour force etc.) and make progress on the scale and allocative efficiencies of agricultural production.
(4) The fluctuation of agricultural TFP is tightly related to the rural economic environment of development, the direction of macroeconomic policies and regulation assignment. This research discovered that the growth rate of agricultural TFP is 5.0% from 1980 to 1984,0.7% from 1985 to 1991,3.4% from 1992 to 1997,3.1% from 1998 to 2002, and 3.2% from 2003 to 2008, among which the important reason for the increment from 1980 to 1984, from 1992 to 1996 and from 2003 to 2008 was the beneficial regulation assignment to the rural area, including the extension of household contract responsibility system, the progress on marketisation reform, performance of the coordination of urban and rural development strategy etc., which encouraged the producers' initiative significantly, and the feature of enhancement is shown by the catch-up effect of middle and western regions to the east. However, the crucial reason for the reduction of agricultural TFP from 1985 to 1991 and from 1997 to 2002 is the decline of reform benefits and its stagnation, with the disappearance of the catch-up effect in the previous durations.
(5) The TFP growth with coexistence of progress on agricultural technology and agricultural technical efficiency improvement is the ideal mode for the sustainable progress of future agriculture in China, but the distinguished policies are required to make it real. Examining the agricultural TFP variation by separating the durations, the relatively high velocity of TFP growth is always the result of the synchronising progress on advanced technology and its efficiency, but the out-sync progress is the intrinsic reason for the growth velocity of TFP sliding downwards. Examining the agricultural TFP variation on the features of position distribution, the eastern agricultural TFP growth is significantly higher than the middle and west. Although the advantage of technical efficiency in east is more obvious than the middle and west, the progress on agricultural technology acts as the main source of agricultural TFP growth. However, according to the results of exploring the TFP growth variation and the separating consequences of 29 provinces, the inter-provincial TFP growth mode and route are significantly different, and the levels of agriculture and social economy distinguish significantly among different provinces. Therefore, the distinguished policies are required to be applied in order to lead and boost the realisation of the new TFP growth mode with coexistence of progress on advanced technology and technical efficiency improvement.
(6) The deepening of material capital and the increment of human capital will promote the progress of China's agricultural TFP significantly. The positive research on the intrinsic factors of agricultural TFP shows that the agricultural TFP is positively related to material capital, human capital, research and development (R&D) expense, division of labour on the base of specialisation and foreign direct investment (FDI) respectively, except the import to the agricultural TFP. The analysis reveals that the implications to agricultural TFP of different kinds of intrinsic factors are various, within which the growth of TFP is negatively related to the continual progress on FDI, insignificantly influenced by the R&D expense and division of specialisation, and positively related by the continual deepening of capital, advancement of human capital significantly.
(7) The "industry-favoured" and "city-favoured" strategies of development and the rigid regulations are the deep reason for the low-speed increment and instability of agricultural TFP. The positive research on the exogenous implications on agricultural TFP reveals that the growth of agricultural TFP is impeded by the relatively small-size operation by peasants'houses, and obviously hindered by the enhancement of industrialisation rate, ratio of financial expenses for agriculture and the "scissors differential" of prices of industrial and agricultural products, additionally, the agricultural TFP growth is indirectly blocked by the deagriculturalisation of agricultural labourers with high quality. Therefore, the "industry-favoured" and "city-favoured" strategies and their rigid regulations are the deeply reason for the low level and instability of TFP growth velocity, so that the continual progress on TFP needs the promotion of innovated regulation and perfected mechanism.
3.Suggestions on policies
On the base of the analysis in this entire dissertation, the suggestions on policies to enhance the agricultural TFP are able to be concluded with the combination of the main problems in agricultural development and the conclusions of some relevant literatures. They are listed as follows.
(1) Establishing and perfecting the mechanism of technical innovation, promoting the progress of advanced technologies. The first measure is to transfer the function of government in order to create a suitable environment for the agricultural technical advancement; the second one is to reform and perfect the raise mechanism of agricultural science fund; the third one is to perfect the system of agricultural science research, active the agricultural scientists'initiative, and the last one is to raise the storage of agricultural science, make progress on the capacity for independent innovation of agriculture.
(2) Building up a comprehensive perfect system, eliminating all the inefficient factors. The first measure is to deepen the land reform, perfect the land circulation mechanism in the whole rural area; the second one is to create a new mechanism of agricultural operations, enhance the peasants'degree of organisation; the third one is to deepen the reform of social security system, construct a guarantee for the system of equal sharing of development achievements by peasants; the fourth one is to deepen the reform of financial regulations, allocate more fund from the public finance to rural area, and the last one is to deepen the reform of finance system in rural area, promote the services to agriculture.
(3) Perfecting the guarantee mechanism of investment, optimising the agricultural investment. The first measure is to optimise the structure of fund source, allocate more fund to agriculture; the second one is to optimise the direction of investment to agriculture, strengthen the investment to infrastructure construction and human resource development in rural area; the third one is to establish reasonable policy of regional investment, distribute more public investment to the agriculture in middle and western China; and the last one is to strengthen the management of support funds, improve its service efficiency.
(4) Perfecting the system of agricultural technical extension, promoting the transference of technological achievements into reality. The first measure is to establish and perfect a service system of agricultural technologies extension oriented to the peasants or peasants' houses; the second one is to discover the new channel of investment, enhance the investment to agricultural technologies extension.
(5) Strengthening the policies of agricultural support, constructing the financing mechanism to agriculture. On one hand, it is to promote the harmonious development in urban and rural areas, building up the harmonious relationship between them, eliminating all kinds of discriminative regulations, distributing the equal chances for development to agriculture and peasants; on the other hand, it is to continue strengthening the policies of agricultural support, perfect the financing mechanism, and encourage the resources to flow backwards to the agriculture.
(6) Paying attention on the development of peasants'abilities, increase the storage of human capital. The first measure is to keep on investment to education on agriculture; the second one is to accelerate the reform of agricultural education, develop vocational and technical education; and the last one is to grasp the training on technologies, help peasants apply new technologies.
4. Innovations
(1) Performing a panoramic perspective to the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of China's agricultural TFP growth. This dissertation carried out the research on the agricultural TFP growth and its components on levels of state, three regions and 29 provinces between 1978 and 2008 from the stable and dynamic viewpoints respectively, with the positive analysis frame composed by stochastic frontier analysis and data envelope analysis (DEA), and clarified the laws of variation and tendency of fluctuation of China's agricultural TFP growth.
(2) Revealing the growth source and intrinsic mechanism of China's agricultural TFP.On the base of separation on the TFP growth into agricultural technology progress and technical efficiency improvement, the research divided the agricultural technology efficiency into pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency, and examine the reasons and components of China's agricultural TFP growth. The study discovers that the agricultural technology is the core power of agricultural TFP growth, and the asynchronism between the progress of agricultural technology and technological efficiency is the intrinsic factor of TFP decline.
(3) Revealing the endogenous decisive factor of China's agricultural TFP growth. The implications to China's agricultural TFP growth by some endogenous factors such as "learning by doing", research and development, human capital, specialisation and technical overflow are analysed in this dissertation, from which it can be concluded that the deepening of substantial capital and increment of human resource will put forward the progress of agricultural TFP significantly.
(4) Extending the analysis on the implications of exogenous factors to China's agricultural TFP The dissertation enrols the variables such as regulation assignment, degree of marketisation, production policies and so on, which are important to the agricultural TFP growth but ignored in the previous researches, into the model and perform a quantitative analysis. The research reveals that the "industry-favoured" and "city-favoured" strategies and the rigid regulations are the deeply reasons for the low-speed increment and instability of agricultural TFP.
引文
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①吴方卫等,2000：《中国农业的增长与效率》,上海财经大学出版社。
①吴方卫、孟令杰等,2000：《中国农业的增长与效率》,上海财经大学出版社。
②李谷成,2008：《基于转型视角的中国农业生产率研究》,华中农业大学博士论文。
③张浩、陈昭,2008：《中国农业经济增长的要素贡献度研究》,《南方经济》第1期。
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117.曹慧,秦富,2006：《集体林区农户技术效率及其影响因素分析—以江西省遂川县为例》,《中国农村观察》第7期。
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119.余建斌、乔娟、龚崇高,2007：《中国大豆生产的技术进步和技术效率分析》,《农业技术经济》第4期。
120.曹建民、胡瑞法、黄季锟,2005：《技术推广与农民对新技术的修正采用农民参与技术培训和采用新技术的意愿及其影响因素分析》,《中国软科学》第6期。
121.鲍学东、郑循刚,2008：《基于SFA的四川农业生产技术效率分析》,《科技管理研究》第9期。
122.王学渊、赵连阁,2008：《中国农业用水效率及影响因素——基于1997-2006年省区面板数据的SFA分析》,《农业经济问题》第3期。
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124.余建斌等,2007：《中国大豆生产的技术进步与技术效率研究》,《农业技术经济》第4期。
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126.易纲、樊纲,2003：《关于中国经济增长与全要素生产率的理论思考》,《经济研究》第8期。
127.龚刚、林毅夫,2007：《过度反应：中国经济“缩长”之解释》,《经济研究》第4期。
128.陈宗胜、黎德福,2004：《内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的再解释》,《经济研究》第11期。
129.卫兴华、侯为民,2007：《中国经济增长方式的选择与转换途径》,《经济研究》第7期。
130.郭庆旺、贾俊雪,2005：《中国全要素生产率的估算：1979-2004》,《经济研究》第6期。
131.张军,2002：《资本形成、工业化与经济增长：中国的转轨特征》,《经济研究》第6期。
132.谷彬,2009：《中国服务业技术效率测算与影响因素实证研究——来自历史数据修订的史实证据》,《统计研究》第8期。
133.陈诗波等,2008：《中国生猪生产效率及影响因素分析》,《农业现代化研究》第1期。
134.张莉侠、孟令杰,2006：《我国食品加工业技术效率及影响因素的实证分析》,《南京农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第6期。
135.张宁、陆文聪,2006：《中国农村劳动力素质对农业效率影响的实证分析》,《农业技术经济》第2期。
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137.何新安、熊启泉、刘莹丰,2009：《1993-2005年广东农业生产率的变动与分解——基于Malmquist生产率指数的实证分析》,《南方经济》第2期。
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