基于SD的经济综合型小城镇可持续发展预警系统研究
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摘要
随着我国城市化的大力推进,小城镇建设这个城市发展体系中的重要环节也越来越受到人们的关注。然而面对人口膨胀、资源短缺、环境恶化的现状,如何对这些非可持续发展的状态进行预警,在建设“和谐社会”的全局中已显得十分重要。
本论文首先总结了近年来国内外学者有关小城镇可持续发展和可持续发展预警的研究成果,分析了小城镇可持续发展预警系统的的内涵、功能特征及设计原理,并构建了预警系统指标体系。
论文是以经济综合型小城镇的发展作为研究对象,运用系统动力学和协调度方法,提出了“小城镇可持续发展度”的概念,作为预警系统的警情指标。通过对小城镇社会、经济、资源、环境各子系统的综合分析,收集相关指标进行研究,最终建立了小城镇可持续发展预警系统,以此来衡量小城镇发展的可持续度。
论文以宁波市邱隘镇为研究对象,采用该镇1994-2005年的指标数据,对邱隘镇1995-2005年的发展进行可持续预警模拟,并预警系统模型结构进行检验和灵敏度分析,验证了该系统模型的可行性和有效性,由仿真结果分析了2006-2008年邱隘镇的发展趋势,通过政策实验室,提出了相应小城镇建设可持续发展政策建议。
实证分析表明,基于系统动力学方法建立的小城镇可持续发展预警系统可以定量地分析小城镇发展各要素之间的关系,综合体现了小城镇的发展程度、协调性和持续性;并可通过政策实验对小城镇的发展状态进行调整,最终朝着可持续发展方向前进。
With the energetical promotion of the urbanization of our country, the important links built in this urban development framework in town are paid close attention to more and more by people too. But face the current situations of population expansion, resource shortage, deterioration of the environment, how carry on prewarning state of sustainable development to these, already seem very important among the overall situation to build " harmonious society ".
This thesis has summarized the domestic and international scholar's research results about sustainable development of town and sustainable development prewarning in recent years at first, intension, function characteristic and design principle of analyzing early warning system of sustainable development of town, construct the index system of the early warning system.
The thesis regards development of the comprehensive town of economy as the research object, use systematic dynamics to put forward the concept of " sustainable development degree in the town " with coordinating one degree of methods, as the alert feeling index of the early warning system. Pass to society, economy, resource, each comprehensive analysis of the subsystem of environment of town, collect relevant indexes and carry on research, has set up the early warning system of sustainable development of town finally, so as to weigh sustainable degree of development of town.
Thesis as research object, adopt this town index datum for 1994-2005 years with QiuGa town of Ningbo city, carry on sustainable early warning simulation to QiuGa town development for 1995-2005 year, and early warning system model structure examine with the sensitivity analyzing, prove this system feasibility and validity of model, analyze the development trend of QiuGa town for less than 2006-2008 year by artificial result, through policy laboratory, propose corresponding town build policy recommendations of sustainable development.
The real example analysis indicates, the early warning system of sustainable development of town established on the basis of the dynamics method of the system can analyze quantitatively the town develops the relation between every key element, have reflected the development degree, harmony and constant of the town synthetically; And can adjust through the state of development to the town of policy experiment, advance towards the sustainable developing direction finally.
本论文首先总结了近年来国内外学者有关小城镇可持续发展和可持续发展预警的研究成果,分析了小城镇可持续发展预警系统的的内涵、功能特征及设计原理,并构建了预警系统指标体系。
论文是以经济综合型小城镇的发展作为研究对象,运用系统动力学和协调度方法,提出了“小城镇可持续发展度”的概念,作为预警系统的警情指标。通过对小城镇社会、经济、资源、环境各子系统的综合分析,收集相关指标进行研究,最终建立了小城镇可持续发展预警系统,以此来衡量小城镇发展的可持续度。
论文以宁波市邱隘镇为研究对象,采用该镇1994-2005年的指标数据,对邱隘镇1995-2005年的发展进行可持续预警模拟,并预警系统模型结构进行检验和灵敏度分析,验证了该系统模型的可行性和有效性,由仿真结果分析了2006-2008年邱隘镇的发展趋势,通过政策实验室,提出了相应小城镇建设可持续发展政策建议。
实证分析表明,基于系统动力学方法建立的小城镇可持续发展预警系统可以定量地分析小城镇发展各要素之间的关系,综合体现了小城镇的发展程度、协调性和持续性;并可通过政策实验对小城镇的发展状态进行调整,最终朝着可持续发展方向前进。
With the energetical promotion of the urbanization of our country, the important links built in this urban development framework in town are paid close attention to more and more by people too. But face the current situations of population expansion, resource shortage, deterioration of the environment, how carry on prewarning state of sustainable development to these, already seem very important among the overall situation to build " harmonious society ".
This thesis has summarized the domestic and international scholar's research results about sustainable development of town and sustainable development prewarning in recent years at first, intension, function characteristic and design principle of analyzing early warning system of sustainable development of town, construct the index system of the early warning system.
The thesis regards development of the comprehensive town of economy as the research object, use systematic dynamics to put forward the concept of " sustainable development degree in the town " with coordinating one degree of methods, as the alert feeling index of the early warning system. Pass to society, economy, resource, each comprehensive analysis of the subsystem of environment of town, collect relevant indexes and carry on research, has set up the early warning system of sustainable development of town finally, so as to weigh sustainable degree of development of town.
Thesis as research object, adopt this town index datum for 1994-2005 years with QiuGa town of Ningbo city, carry on sustainable early warning simulation to QiuGa town development for 1995-2005 year, and early warning system model structure examine with the sensitivity analyzing, prove this system feasibility and validity of model, analyze the development trend of QiuGa town for less than 2006-2008 year by artificial result, through policy laboratory, propose corresponding town build policy recommendations of sustainable development.
The real example analysis indicates, the early warning system of sustainable development of town established on the basis of the dynamics method of the system can analyze quantitatively the town develops the relation between every key element, have reflected the development degree, harmony and constant of the town synthetically; And can adjust through the state of development to the town of policy experiment, advance towards the sustainable developing direction finally.
引文
[1]冯健.1980年代以来我国小城镇研究的新进展.城市规划汇刊,2001 (3): 28-34
[2]曹利军.可持续发展评价理论与方法.北京:科学出版社,1999.5-65
[3]徐荣安.中国小城镇经济学.北京:中国展望出版社,2002.15-30
[4] Zeng Zhen-xiang.The Analysis of Coordination and Sustainable Development. Systems Engineering-theory & Practice,2001,3(3):64-66
[5] Zeng Zhen-xiang. System Analysis and Evaluation of Sustainable Development. Beijing: science press,2000.36-56
[6] Button.K Jetal.Improving the urban environment: how to adjust national and local government policy for sustainal urban growth. Oxford: Porgamon Press, 1990. 156-221
[7] Boulding.K.E, The Economics of the coming spaceship earth, In H Jarret(ed). Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy. New York: Freeman, 1996.112-120
[8] Walter Betal. Sustainable cities: concepts and stratebies for eco-city evelopment. 1994
[9] Sibert.H. Economics of Environment, 2nd cd. Berlin; springer-verlag, 1987.32-45
[10] Barbier.E.B.Economics. Natrural-Resource Scarcity and Development Conventional and Alternative. London: Earthscan, 1989.126-162
[11] James.D.E. Economic Approaches to Environmental Problems. Amsterdan: Elsevier, 1978
[12] Brouwer.F. An Intergrated Regional Model for Economic-Ecological Dernorgraphic Facility Interaction. Paper of the Regional Science Association 52, pp, 1983Odom, Sharda. A neural network models for bankruptcy prediction. Neural Networks, 1990
[13] Ikeda.S. Economic-Ecological Models in a Regional Setting. Sakure: University of Islikuba, 1984.56-76
[14]赵景柱,梁秀英,张旭乐.可持续发展概念的系统分析.生态学报,1999,19(3):393-398
[15]陈佑启.论农村生态系统与经济的可持续发展.中国软科学,2000(8):24-30
[16]常纪文.论我国目前次生环境资源问题的产生原因.环境与开发,1999(2):23-31
[17]李来胜.我国生态经济可持续发展的制约因素及对策.山东财政学院学报,1999(4):30-36
[18]陈群香.中国水土保持生态环境建设现状与社会经济可持续发展对策.水土保持通报,2000(3):1-4
[19]李祚泳,程红霞,邓新民等.城市可持续发展的指数普适公式及评价模型.环境科学,2001,22(6):112-115
[20]李祚泳,沈仕伦,邓新民.社会、经济与环境协调发展指数评价模型.上海环境科学,2000,19(5):201-204
[21]冯向东.论村镇持续发展机理与对策.村镇建设,1996(4):22-24
[22]何艳,徐建明.论可持续发展的生态型小城镇建设.农业现代化研究, 2003, 24(1): 54-56
[23]范文国,熊宁.我国小城镇不可持续发展的资源因素探讨——以江苏省为例.经济地理, 2003,23(1):42-46
[24]钱杭园,李明.小城镇社会经济可持续发展战略初探.浙江林学院学报.2001,18(2):212-214
[25]李宇.小城镇可持续发展评价指标体系研究.河北农业大学学报.2001,24(1): 73-75
[26]曾珍香.可持续发展的系统分析与评价.北京:科学出版社,2000.106-138
[27]曾珍香.可持续发展协调性分析.系统工程理论与实践,2001,3(3):18-21
[28]傅伯杰.区域生态环境预警的原理与方法.资源开发预保护,1991,7(3):138-141
[29]王其蕃.系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1988.1-68
[30] Slesser.M.ECCO Use 's Manuals.Edin Surgh Rcsourcc Usc Institute,1991
[31] Maclaren.V.W.urban sustainability reporting.Journal of the American Planning Association ,1996 62(2):185-202
[32] U.K. Department of Environment. Indicators of sustainable for the United Kingdom. London:HMSO,1996.76-112
[33]王惠敏,刘新仁,徐立中.流域可持续发展的系统动力学预警系统方法研究.系统工程,2001,19(3):61-68
[34]金菊良,丁晶,魏一鸣,等.区域水资源可持续利用系统评价的插值模型.自然资源学报,2002,17(5):610-615
[35]宋松柏,蔡焕杰.区域水资源可持续利用评价的人工神经网络模型.农业工程学报,2004,20(9):89-92
[36]金菊良,张礼兵,魏一鸣.水资源可持续利用评价的改进层次分析法.水科学进展,2004,15(2):228-232
[37]田家华.自然资源可持续利用预警统的研究.科技进步与对策,2004,(11):4-6
[38]朱晔.区域可持续发展预警系统研究.华侨大学学报,2002,(1):23-26
[39]俞勇军.南京市可持续发展预警系统初探.经济地理,2001,(5):56-58
[40]王其藩.高级系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1995.3-76
[41]胡玉奎,韩于羹,曹铮韵.系统动力学模型的进化.系统工程理论与实践, 1997(10):132-136
[42]程进,王华伟,何祖玉.基于遗传算法的系统动力学仿真模型研究.系统工程, 2002,20(3):77-80
[43]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.32-56
[44] Forester.J.W.World Dynamics.New York:Wright Allen Press,1997.76-125
[45] Tietenberg.T. Environmental and Natural Resource Economics. 3rd. edition. New York: Harper Collins,1992
[46] Yu Yong-jun,Lu Yu-qi.Studies.On The Yellow Alert System of Sustainable Development of Nanjing .City.Economic Geography,2001,21(5):26-28
[47] United Nations.Indicators of Sustainable Development Framework and Methodologies. New York: United Nations, 1996.126-185
[48]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇可持续发展评价方法与应用.农业系统科学与综合研究,2004,20(3):229-231
[49] Ji Hong.Research County territory economy coordinated development target system and early warning system.Economic Problems,2005,6(6):16-20
[50]范文国,熊宁.东部沿海地区小城镇可持续发展的指标体系构思.经济地理,2002,22(1):37-40
[51]莫法特[英].可持续发展——原则、分析和政策.北京:经济科学出版社,2002.365-378
[52]李斌,陈莉,李广.基于ANN的小城镇可持续发展评价研究.生态经济,2005(10): 239-243
[2]曹利军.可持续发展评价理论与方法.北京:科学出版社,1999.5-65
[3]徐荣安.中国小城镇经济学.北京:中国展望出版社,2002.15-30
[4] Zeng Zhen-xiang.The Analysis of Coordination and Sustainable Development. Systems Engineering-theory & Practice,2001,3(3):64-66
[5] Zeng Zhen-xiang. System Analysis and Evaluation of Sustainable Development. Beijing: science press,2000.36-56
[6] Button.K Jetal.Improving the urban environment: how to adjust national and local government policy for sustainal urban growth. Oxford: Porgamon Press, 1990. 156-221
[7] Boulding.K.E, The Economics of the coming spaceship earth, In H Jarret(ed). Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy. New York: Freeman, 1996.112-120
[8] Walter Betal. Sustainable cities: concepts and stratebies for eco-city evelopment. 1994
[9] Sibert.H. Economics of Environment, 2nd cd. Berlin; springer-verlag, 1987.32-45
[10] Barbier.E.B.Economics. Natrural-Resource Scarcity and Development Conventional and Alternative. London: Earthscan, 1989.126-162
[11] James.D.E. Economic Approaches to Environmental Problems. Amsterdan: Elsevier, 1978
[12] Brouwer.F. An Intergrated Regional Model for Economic-Ecological Dernorgraphic Facility Interaction. Paper of the Regional Science Association 52, pp, 1983Odom, Sharda. A neural network models for bankruptcy prediction. Neural Networks, 1990
[13] Ikeda.S. Economic-Ecological Models in a Regional Setting. Sakure: University of Islikuba, 1984.56-76
[14]赵景柱,梁秀英,张旭乐.可持续发展概念的系统分析.生态学报,1999,19(3):393-398
[15]陈佑启.论农村生态系统与经济的可持续发展.中国软科学,2000(8):24-30
[16]常纪文.论我国目前次生环境资源问题的产生原因.环境与开发,1999(2):23-31
[17]李来胜.我国生态经济可持续发展的制约因素及对策.山东财政学院学报,1999(4):30-36
[18]陈群香.中国水土保持生态环境建设现状与社会经济可持续发展对策.水土保持通报,2000(3):1-4
[19]李祚泳,程红霞,邓新民等.城市可持续发展的指数普适公式及评价模型.环境科学,2001,22(6):112-115
[20]李祚泳,沈仕伦,邓新民.社会、经济与环境协调发展指数评价模型.上海环境科学,2000,19(5):201-204
[21]冯向东.论村镇持续发展机理与对策.村镇建设,1996(4):22-24
[22]何艳,徐建明.论可持续发展的生态型小城镇建设.农业现代化研究, 2003, 24(1): 54-56
[23]范文国,熊宁.我国小城镇不可持续发展的资源因素探讨——以江苏省为例.经济地理, 2003,23(1):42-46
[24]钱杭园,李明.小城镇社会经济可持续发展战略初探.浙江林学院学报.2001,18(2):212-214
[25]李宇.小城镇可持续发展评价指标体系研究.河北农业大学学报.2001,24(1): 73-75
[26]曾珍香.可持续发展的系统分析与评价.北京:科学出版社,2000.106-138
[27]曾珍香.可持续发展协调性分析.系统工程理论与实践,2001,3(3):18-21
[28]傅伯杰.区域生态环境预警的原理与方法.资源开发预保护,1991,7(3):138-141
[29]王其蕃.系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1988.1-68
[30] Slesser.M.ECCO Use 's Manuals.Edin Surgh Rcsourcc Usc Institute,1991
[31] Maclaren.V.W.urban sustainability reporting.Journal of the American Planning Association ,1996 62(2):185-202
[32] U.K. Department of Environment. Indicators of sustainable for the United Kingdom. London:HMSO,1996.76-112
[33]王惠敏,刘新仁,徐立中.流域可持续发展的系统动力学预警系统方法研究.系统工程,2001,19(3):61-68
[34]金菊良,丁晶,魏一鸣,等.区域水资源可持续利用系统评价的插值模型.自然资源学报,2002,17(5):610-615
[35]宋松柏,蔡焕杰.区域水资源可持续利用评价的人工神经网络模型.农业工程学报,2004,20(9):89-92
[36]金菊良,张礼兵,魏一鸣.水资源可持续利用评价的改进层次分析法.水科学进展,2004,15(2):228-232
[37]田家华.自然资源可持续利用预警统的研究.科技进步与对策,2004,(11):4-6
[38]朱晔.区域可持续发展预警系统研究.华侨大学学报,2002,(1):23-26
[39]俞勇军.南京市可持续发展预警系统初探.经济地理,2001,(5):56-58
[40]王其藩.高级系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1995.3-76
[41]胡玉奎,韩于羹,曹铮韵.系统动力学模型的进化.系统工程理论与实践, 1997(10):132-136
[42]程进,王华伟,何祖玉.基于遗传算法的系统动力学仿真模型研究.系统工程, 2002,20(3):77-80
[43]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.32-56
[44] Forester.J.W.World Dynamics.New York:Wright Allen Press,1997.76-125
[45] Tietenberg.T. Environmental and Natural Resource Economics. 3rd. edition. New York: Harper Collins,1992
[46] Yu Yong-jun,Lu Yu-qi.Studies.On The Yellow Alert System of Sustainable Development of Nanjing .City.Economic Geography,2001,21(5):26-28
[47] United Nations.Indicators of Sustainable Development Framework and Methodologies. New York: United Nations, 1996.126-185
[48]李崇明,丁烈云.小城镇可持续发展评价方法与应用.农业系统科学与综合研究,2004,20(3):229-231
[49] Ji Hong.Research County territory economy coordinated development target system and early warning system.Economic Problems,2005,6(6):16-20
[50]范文国,熊宁.东部沿海地区小城镇可持续发展的指标体系构思.经济地理,2002,22(1):37-40
[51]莫法特[英].可持续发展——原则、分析和政策.北京:经济科学出版社,2002.365-378
[52]李斌,陈莉,李广.基于ANN的小城镇可持续发展评价研究.生态经济,2005(10): 239-243