2010年6月我国南方持续性强降水过程:天气系统演变和青藏高原热力作用的影响
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- 英文论文题名：The Persistent Heavy Rainfall over Southern China in June 2010: Evolution of Synoptic Systems and the Effects of the Tibetan Plateau Heating
- 论文作者：李雪松 ; 罗亚丽 ; 管兆勇
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室;南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,大气科学学院;大连市气象台;
- 论文关键词：南方持续性强降水 ; 显式对流集合模拟 ; 大气环流与天气系统 ; 青藏高原热力作用
- 会议召开时间：2016-11-01
- 会议录名称：第33届中国气象学会年会 S3 青藏高原与复杂山地天气气候
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：P426.6;P461
- 学会代码：ZGQX
- 会议名称：第33届中国气象学会年会
- 会议地点：中国陕西西安
- 主办单位：中国气象学会
- 学会名称：中国气象学会
- 页数：3
- 文件大小：333k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
2010年6月我国南方发生持续性强降水,其强度与2008年6月相当、超过近年来其他年份。但是,与2008年6月相比,2010年6月对流层中低层低值系统活动在青藏高原至我国长江中下游地区异常频繁,副热带高压位置异常偏西、强度偏强,导致低层异常风场辐合区及强降水区域相对偏北。分析2010年6月14—24日我国南方连续出现的4次持续性强降水过程,发现南亚高压、对流层中层的中纬度槽脊和西太平洋副热带高压以及低层切变线和东移低涡是造成持续性强降水的主要天气系统。利用WRF模式对2010年6月强降水过程实施显式对流集合模拟试验,在控制试验重现了观测到的地面降水和天气系统特征的基础上,在敏感性试验中将青藏高原的地表短波反照率修改为1.0,对比两组模拟试验的结果表明:控制试验中青藏高原的地表感热加热作用使得高原及其周边地区的大气温度发生变化,相应的热成风平衡调整使得对流层低层至高层大气环流和天气系统特征发生显著变化,增强了我国南方的持续性降水。200h Pa高原西部形成反气旋性环流异常、东部形成气旋性环流异常,高原东部南下的冷空气加强,我国南方辐散增强;500hpa高原北部的脊加强,我国东部的槽加深,副高西北侧的西南风明显增强,从高原向下游传播的正涡度也显著加强;850h Pa的低涡强烈发展并逐步东移,华南沿海的西南低空急流更为强盛,导致降水区的水汽辐合、上升运动及降水强度都增强。
引文
1叶笃正,顾震潮.1955.西藏高原对于东亚大气环流及中国天气的影响.科学通报,4:29-33
2 Flohn H.1957.Large-scale aspects of the"summer monsoon"in south and east Asia.J Meteor Soc Japan,75:180-186.
3 Hahnd G,Manabe S.1975.The role of mountains in the south Asian monsoon circulation.J Atmos Sci,77:1515-1541.
4 Huang R H.1985.Numerical simulation of three-dimensional tele-connections in the summer circulation over the northern hemisphere.Adv Atmos Sci,2:81-92.
5 He H Y,Mcginnis J W,Song Z,et al.1987.Onset of the Asian summer monsoon in 1979 and the effect of the Tibetan Plateau.Mon Wea Rev,115:1966-1995.
6 Kitoh A,2004.Effects of mountain uplift on east Asian summer climate investigated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM.J Climate,17:783-802.
7叶笃正,高由禧等.1979.青藏高原气象学.北京:科学出版社
8 Wu G X.2006.The influence of mechanical and thermal forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on Asian climate.Hydrometeorology-Special Section,8:770-789
9 Xu X D,Lu C G,Shi X H,et al.2010.Large-scale topography of China:a factor for the seasonal progression of the Meiyu rainband?JGeophys Res,115:D02110
10 Duan A M,Wang M R,Lei Y H,et al.2012.Trends in summer rainfall over China associated with the Tibetan Plateau sensible heat source during 1980-2008.J Climate,26:261-275
11 Wang B.1987.The development mechanism for Tibetan Plateau warm vortices.J Atmos Sci,44(20):2978-2994
12罗四维,杨洋,吕世华.1991.一次青藏高原低涡的诊断分析研究.高原气象,10(1):1-12
13罗四维,杨洋.1992.一次青藏高原夏季低涡的数值模拟研究.高原气象,11(1):39-48
14李国平,赵邦杰,杨锦青.2002.地面感热对青藏高原低涡流场结构及发展的作用.大气科学,26(4):519-525
15李国平,刘红武.2006.地面热源强迫对青藏高原低涡作用的动力学分析.热带气象学报,22(6):632-637
16陈伯民,钱正安,张立盛.1996.夏季青藏高原低涡形成和发展的数值模拟.大气科学,20(4):491-502
17 Wan R J,Wu G X.2007.Mechanism of the spring persistent rains over southeastern China.Science in China(D),50:130-144.
18 Wan R J,Zhao B K,Wu G X.2009.New evidences on the climatic causes of the formation of the spring persistent rains over Southeastern China.Adv Atmos Sci,26:1081-1087
19梁潇云,刘屹岷,吴国雄.2005.青藏高原隆升对春、夏季亚洲大气环流的影响.高原气象,24(6):837-845
20 Wang Z Q,Duan A M,Wu G X.2013.Time-lagged impact of spring sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau on the summer rainfall anomaly in East China:case studies using the WRF model.Climate Dyn,40,doi10.1007/s00382-013-1800-2.
21吴国雄,刘新,张琼等.2002.青藏高原抬升加热气候效应研究的新进展.气候与环境研究,7(2):184-201
22吴国雄,刘屹岷.2000.热力适应、过流、频散和副高.I:热力适应和过流.大气科学,24(4):433-446
23章基嘉,徐祥德,苗峻峰.1995.青藏高原地面热力异常对夏季江淮流域持续暴雨形成作用的数值试验.大气科学,19(3):270-276
24孔期.2010.2010年6月大气环流和天气分析.气象,36(9):120-125
25王晓芳,黄华丽,黄治勇.2011.2010年5-6月南方持续性暴雨的成因分析.2011年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会,125-133
26 Yuan F,Chen W,Zhou W.2012.Analysis of the role played by circulation in the persistent precipitation over South China in June2010.Adv Atmos Sci,29(4):769-781
27何钰,李国平.2013.青藏高原大地形对华南持续性暴雨影响的数值试验.大气科学,37(4):933-944.
28 Joyce R J,Janowiak J E,Arkin P A,et al.2004.CMORPH:a method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution.J Hydrometeor,5:487-503.
29 Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,137:553-597
30 Lean H W,Clark P A,Dixon M,et al.2008.Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the met office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom.Mon Wea Rev,136(9):3408-3424
31 Kain J S,Weiss S J,Bright D R,et al.2008.Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP.Wea Forecasting,23(5):931-952
32 Schwartz C S,Kain J S,Weiss S J,et al.2009.Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance:a second look at 2-km versus 4-km grid spacing.Mon Wea Rev,137(10):3351-3372
33 Du J,Mullen S L,Sanders F.1997.Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation.Mon Wea Rev,125(10):2427-2459
34 Chien F C,Jou B J D.2004.MM5 ensemble mean precipitation forecasts in the Taiwan area for three early summer convective(mei-yu)seasons.Wea Forecasting,19:735-750
35 Grimit E P,Mass C F.2002.Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest.Wea Forecasting,17(2):192-205
36 Stensrud D J,Yussouf N.2003.Short-range ensemble predictions of 2-m temperature and dew point temperature over New England.Mon Wea Rev,131(10):2510-2524
37 Skamarock W C,Klemp J B,Dudhia J,et al.2008.A description of the advanced research WRF version 3.NCAR Tech.Note NCAR/TN-4751STR,113 pp
38李伟平,吴国雄,刘辉.2000.地表反照率的改变影响夏季北非副热带高压的数值模拟.气象学报,58(1):26-38
39 Boos W R,Kuang Z M.2010.Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating.Nature,463:218-223
40 Morrison H,Thompson G,Tatarskii V.2009.Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line:comparison of one-and two-moment schemes.Mon Wea Rev,137(3):991-1007
41 Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave.J Geophys Res,102(D14):16663-16682
42 Dudhia J.1989.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.J Atmos Sci,46(20):3077-3107
43 Coniglio M C,Correia J,Marsh P T,et al.2013.Verification of convection-allowing WRF model forecasts of the planetary boundary layer using sounding observations.Wea Forecasting,28(3):842-862
44 Livneh B,Restrepo P J,Lettenmaier D P.2011.Development of a unified land model for prediction of surface hydrology and land-atmosphere interactions.J Hydrometeor,12(6):1299-1320
45李菲,段安民.2011.青藏高原夏季风强弱变化及其对亚洲地区降水和环流的影响--2008年个例分析.大气科学,35(4):694-706.
46杨辉.2011.中国华南地区6月降水变化特征及大气环流条件分析.第四纪研究,31(1):81-87
已于2014年发表在《气象学报》英文版,并在中文版同时刊出。
2 Flohn H.1957.Large-scale aspects of the"summer monsoon"in south and east Asia.J Meteor Soc Japan,75:180-186.
3 Hahnd G,Manabe S.1975.The role of mountains in the south Asian monsoon circulation.J Atmos Sci,77:1515-1541.
4 Huang R H.1985.Numerical simulation of three-dimensional tele-connections in the summer circulation over the northern hemisphere.Adv Atmos Sci,2:81-92.
5 He H Y,Mcginnis J W,Song Z,et al.1987.Onset of the Asian summer monsoon in 1979 and the effect of the Tibetan Plateau.Mon Wea Rev,115:1966-1995.
6 Kitoh A,2004.Effects of mountain uplift on east Asian summer climate investigated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM.J Climate,17:783-802.
7叶笃正,高由禧等.1979.青藏高原气象学.北京:科学出版社
8 Wu G X.2006.The influence of mechanical and thermal forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on Asian climate.Hydrometeorology-Special Section,8:770-789
9 Xu X D,Lu C G,Shi X H,et al.2010.Large-scale topography of China:a factor for the seasonal progression of the Meiyu rainband?JGeophys Res,115:D02110
10 Duan A M,Wang M R,Lei Y H,et al.2012.Trends in summer rainfall over China associated with the Tibetan Plateau sensible heat source during 1980-2008.J Climate,26:261-275
11 Wang B.1987.The development mechanism for Tibetan Plateau warm vortices.J Atmos Sci,44(20):2978-2994
12罗四维,杨洋,吕世华.1991.一次青藏高原低涡的诊断分析研究.高原气象,10(1):1-12
13罗四维,杨洋.1992.一次青藏高原夏季低涡的数值模拟研究.高原气象,11(1):39-48
14李国平,赵邦杰,杨锦青.2002.地面感热对青藏高原低涡流场结构及发展的作用.大气科学,26(4):519-525
15李国平,刘红武.2006.地面热源强迫对青藏高原低涡作用的动力学分析.热带气象学报,22(6):632-637
16陈伯民,钱正安,张立盛.1996.夏季青藏高原低涡形成和发展的数值模拟.大气科学,20(4):491-502
17 Wan R J,Wu G X.2007.Mechanism of the spring persistent rains over southeastern China.Science in China(D),50:130-144.
18 Wan R J,Zhao B K,Wu G X.2009.New evidences on the climatic causes of the formation of the spring persistent rains over Southeastern China.Adv Atmos Sci,26:1081-1087
19梁潇云,刘屹岷,吴国雄.2005.青藏高原隆升对春、夏季亚洲大气环流的影响.高原气象,24(6):837-845
20 Wang Z Q,Duan A M,Wu G X.2013.Time-lagged impact of spring sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau on the summer rainfall anomaly in East China:case studies using the WRF model.Climate Dyn,40,doi10.1007/s00382-013-1800-2.
21吴国雄,刘新,张琼等.2002.青藏高原抬升加热气候效应研究的新进展.气候与环境研究,7(2):184-201
22吴国雄,刘屹岷.2000.热力适应、过流、频散和副高.I:热力适应和过流.大气科学,24(4):433-446
23章基嘉,徐祥德,苗峻峰.1995.青藏高原地面热力异常对夏季江淮流域持续暴雨形成作用的数值试验.大气科学,19(3):270-276
24孔期.2010.2010年6月大气环流和天气分析.气象,36(9):120-125
25王晓芳,黄华丽,黄治勇.2011.2010年5-6月南方持续性暴雨的成因分析.2011年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会,125-133
26 Yuan F,Chen W,Zhou W.2012.Analysis of the role played by circulation in the persistent precipitation over South China in June2010.Adv Atmos Sci,29(4):769-781
27何钰,李国平.2013.青藏高原大地形对华南持续性暴雨影响的数值试验.大气科学,37(4):933-944.
28 Joyce R J,Janowiak J E,Arkin P A,et al.2004.CMORPH:a method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution.J Hydrometeor,5:487-503.
29 Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,137:553-597
30 Lean H W,Clark P A,Dixon M,et al.2008.Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the met office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom.Mon Wea Rev,136(9):3408-3424
31 Kain J S,Weiss S J,Bright D R,et al.2008.Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP.Wea Forecasting,23(5):931-952
32 Schwartz C S,Kain J S,Weiss S J,et al.2009.Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance:a second look at 2-km versus 4-km grid spacing.Mon Wea Rev,137(10):3351-3372
33 Du J,Mullen S L,Sanders F.1997.Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation.Mon Wea Rev,125(10):2427-2459
34 Chien F C,Jou B J D.2004.MM5 ensemble mean precipitation forecasts in the Taiwan area for three early summer convective(mei-yu)seasons.Wea Forecasting,19:735-750
35 Grimit E P,Mass C F.2002.Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest.Wea Forecasting,17(2):192-205
36 Stensrud D J,Yussouf N.2003.Short-range ensemble predictions of 2-m temperature and dew point temperature over New England.Mon Wea Rev,131(10):2510-2524
37 Skamarock W C,Klemp J B,Dudhia J,et al.2008.A description of the advanced research WRF version 3.NCAR Tech.Note NCAR/TN-4751STR,113 pp
38李伟平,吴国雄,刘辉.2000.地表反照率的改变影响夏季北非副热带高压的数值模拟.气象学报,58(1):26-38
39 Boos W R,Kuang Z M.2010.Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating.Nature,463:218-223
40 Morrison H,Thompson G,Tatarskii V.2009.Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line:comparison of one-and two-moment schemes.Mon Wea Rev,137(3):991-1007
41 Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave.J Geophys Res,102(D14):16663-16682
42 Dudhia J.1989.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model.J Atmos Sci,46(20):3077-3107
43 Coniglio M C,Correia J,Marsh P T,et al.2013.Verification of convection-allowing WRF model forecasts of the planetary boundary layer using sounding observations.Wea Forecasting,28(3):842-862
44 Livneh B,Restrepo P J,Lettenmaier D P.2011.Development of a unified land model for prediction of surface hydrology and land-atmosphere interactions.J Hydrometeor,12(6):1299-1320
45李菲,段安民.2011.青藏高原夏季风强弱变化及其对亚洲地区降水和环流的影响--2008年个例分析.大气科学,35(4):694-706.
46杨辉.2011.中国华南地区6月降水变化特征及大气环流条件分析.第四纪研究,31(1):81-87
已于2014年发表在《气象学报》英文版,并在中文版同时刊出。