中美两国研发经费支出的协整分析
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- 英文论文题名：R&D Expenditure Cointegration Analysis of China and US
- 论文作者：刘翔 ; 刘嘉 ; 沈雅君
- 英文论文作者：LIU Xiang ; LIU Jia ; SHEN Ya-jun ; Economics and Management School ; Wuhan University ; School of Information and Safety Engineering ; Zhongnan University of Economics and Law ; School of Journalism and Communication ; Hunan Normal University
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：武汉大学经济与管理学院;中南财经政法大学信息与安全工程学院;湖南师范大学新闻与传播学院;
- 论文关键词：国内生产总值 ; 财政收入 ; 研发经费支出 ; 协整 ; ARIMA模型
- 英文论文关键词：GDP ; financial revenue ; R&D expenditure ; Cointegration ; ARIMA model
- 会议召开时间：2016-11-12
- 会议录名称：第十八届中国管理科学学术年会论文集
- 英文会议录名称：Proceedings of the 18th Chinese Annual Conference on Management Science
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：F224;F812.45;F817.12
- 学会代码：ZHYJ
- 会议名称：第十八届中国管理科学学术年会
- 会议地点：中国陕西西安
- 主办单位：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会、西安交通大学、中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院、《中国管理科学》编辑部
- 学会名称：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
- 页数：6
- 文件大小：668k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
近年来,中国的国内生产总值和财政收入高速增长。中国政府为了实施依托科技和创新的战略,在研发经费支出上的投入也快速增加。本文利用协整检验的方法对1991年-2013年中国的国内生产总值、财政收入和研发经费支出的时间序列数据进行研究。分析结果表明国内生产总值与研发经费支出存在长期均衡关系,财政收入与研发经费支出也存在长期均衡关系。然后本文进一步运用ARIMA模型对中国和美国在可见未来的研发经费支出进行预测。结果表明中国的研发经费支出一直会跟美国有相当大的差距,且难以赶上美国。接下来,本文分析中国研发环境的下列三个缺陷:科研经费使用效率低,创新人力资源与经费不匹配,以及科技成果评价体系不科学。最后,文章给出改善中国研发环境的建议。
In recent years,Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and financial revenue of China grow rapidly.In order to implement the strategy of relying on science and technology innovation,the Chinese government has invested increasingly more in R&D expenditure.In this paper,the cointegration test approach is employed to analyze the time series data composed by the GDP,financial revenue and G&D expenditure of China.The results show that GDP and R&D expenditure in China has a long-term equilibrium relationship,while financial revenue and R&D expenditure in China also has a long-term equilibrium relationship.Afterwards,ARIMA model is utilized to forecast the R&D expenditure of China and US in the foreseeable future.The results suggest that there will be a relatively large gap between the R&D expenditure of China and that of US in the long run,and it is extremely difficult for China to catch up with US in R&D expenditure.Then,three flaws of the R&D environment in China are elabotatedas follows:(1) Inefficient usage of scientific research funds,(2) Mismatching of innovative human resources and scientific research funding,(3) Scientific research achievement evaluation system is unreasonable.Finally,recommendations are proposed for the improvement of R&D environment in China.
In recent years,Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and financial revenue of China grow rapidly.In order to implement the strategy of relying on science and technology innovation,the Chinese government has invested increasingly more in R&D expenditure.In this paper,the cointegration test approach is employed to analyze the time series data composed by the GDP,financial revenue and G&D expenditure of China.The results show that GDP and R&D expenditure in China has a long-term equilibrium relationship,while financial revenue and R&D expenditure in China also has a long-term equilibrium relationship.Afterwards,ARIMA model is utilized to forecast the R&D expenditure of China and US in the foreseeable future.The results suggest that there will be a relatively large gap between the R&D expenditure of China and that of US in the long run,and it is extremely difficult for China to catch up with US in R&D expenditure.Then,three flaws of the R&D environment in China are elabotatedas follows:(1) Inefficient usage of scientific research funds,(2) Mismatching of innovative human resources and scientific research funding,(3) Scientific research achievement evaluation system is unreasonable.Finally,recommendations are proposed for the improvement of R&D environment in China.
引文
[1]韦邦荣,杨玉生.中国财政收入与国内生产总值之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2006,21(1):49-52.
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[5]Yang C H,Lin C H,Ma D.R&D,Human capital investment and productivity:Firm-level evidence from China's Electronics Industry[J].China&World Economy,2010,18(5):72-89.
[6]Chen Y C.Why do multinational corporations locate their advanced R&D centres in Beijing?[J].Journal of Development Studies,2008,44(5):622-644.
[7]Sun yifei,Du debin,Huang Li.Foreign R&D in developing countries:Empirical evidence from Shanghai,China[J].China Review,2010,6(1):67-91.
[8]Wang fang.Complementarities between R&D investment and exporting-Evidence from China[J].China Economic Review,2014,(32):217-227.
[9]Di Minin A,Zhang,jieyin.An Exploratory Study on International R&D Strategies of Chinese Companies in Europe[J].Review of Policy Research,2010,27(4):433-455.
[10]陈志松.政府激励政策下人造板绿色供应链谈判-协调机制研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(2):115-124.
[11]杨仕辉,魏守道.企业环境研发、产品差异化与政府环境管制[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(1):159-168
[12]王立伟,郑军卫,赵纪东,等.美国支撑决策的科学、技术和创新(STI)评价指标体系及启示[J].科技进步与对策,2015,32(14):98-102.
[13]金碚.1978年以来中国发展的轨迹与启示[J].中国工业经济.2007,(05):191-200.
[14]董炳艳.美国研发资金投入历史及对中国的启示[J].科技进步与对策,2005,22(06):140-142.
[15]叶静怡,杨洋,韩佳伟,等.中美高校技术转移效率比较——基于专利的视角[J].中国科技论坛,2015,(01):150-155.
[16]刘凤朝,冯婷婷,姜楠.科技资源投入影响科技产出的机理分析——基于中美两国创新体系的建模与仿真[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(01):5-11.
[2]周彬.中国的研发投入、激励政策与经济增长—理论分析与经验研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2014.
[3]谢军.中国企业的技术能力与国外市场进入模式的实证研究[J].科技进步与对策,2008,25(8):51-53.
[4]Pelzman J.PRC outward investment in the USA and Europe:A model of R&D acquisition[J].Review of Development Economics,2015,19(1):1-14.
[5]Yang C H,Lin C H,Ma D.R&D,Human capital investment and productivity:Firm-level evidence from China's Electronics Industry[J].China&World Economy,2010,18(5):72-89.
[6]Chen Y C.Why do multinational corporations locate their advanced R&D centres in Beijing?[J].Journal of Development Studies,2008,44(5):622-644.
[7]Sun yifei,Du debin,Huang Li.Foreign R&D in developing countries:Empirical evidence from Shanghai,China[J].China Review,2010,6(1):67-91.
[8]Wang fang.Complementarities between R&D investment and exporting-Evidence from China[J].China Economic Review,2014,(32):217-227.
[9]Di Minin A,Zhang,jieyin.An Exploratory Study on International R&D Strategies of Chinese Companies in Europe[J].Review of Policy Research,2010,27(4):433-455.
[10]陈志松.政府激励政策下人造板绿色供应链谈判-协调机制研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(2):115-124.
[11]杨仕辉,魏守道.企业环境研发、产品差异化与政府环境管制[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(1):159-168
[12]王立伟,郑军卫,赵纪东,等.美国支撑决策的科学、技术和创新(STI)评价指标体系及启示[J].科技进步与对策,2015,32(14):98-102.
[13]金碚.1978年以来中国发展的轨迹与启示[J].中国工业经济.2007,(05):191-200.
[14]董炳艳.美国研发资金投入历史及对中国的启示[J].科技进步与对策,2005,22(06):140-142.
[15]叶静怡,杨洋,韩佳伟,等.中美高校技术转移效率比较——基于专利的视角[J].中国科技论坛,2015,(01):150-155.
[16]刘凤朝,冯婷婷,姜楠.科技资源投入影响科技产出的机理分析——基于中美两国创新体系的建模与仿真[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(01):5-11.