The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province, East China
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摘要
Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind(extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter(November–February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p = 0.0013).This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.
Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind(extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter(November–February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p = 0.0013).This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.
Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind(extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter(November–February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p = 0.0013).This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.
引文
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Boe,B.A.,J.A.Jr.Heimbach,T.W.Krauss,et al.,2014:The dispersion of silver iodide particles from ground-based generators over complex terrain.Part I:Observations with acoustic ice nucleus counters.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,1325-1341,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0240.1.
Breed,D.,R.Rasmussen,C.Weeks,et al.,2014:Evaluating winter orographic cloud seeding:Design of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project(WWMPP).J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,282-299,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0128.1.
Chu,X.,L.L.Xue,B.Geerts,et al.,2014:A case study of radar observations and WRF LES simulations of the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on orographic clouds and precipitation.Part I:Observations and model validations.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,2264-2286,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0017.1.
?uri?,M.,D.Janc,and V.Vu?kovi?,2008:Precipitation change from a cumulonimbus cloud downwind of a seeded target area.J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,113,D11215,doi:10.1029/2007JD009483.
DeFelice,T.P.,J.Golden,D.Griffith,et al.,2014:Extra area effects of cloud seeding-An updated assessment.Atmos.Res.,135-136,193-203,doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.08.014.
Dennis,A.S.,1980:Weather modification by cloud seeding.Inter.Geophy.Seri,24,140-142.
Dixon,M.,and G.Wiener,1993:TITAN:Thunderstorm identification,tracking,analysis,and nowcasting-A radar-based methodology.J.Atmos.Ocean.Technol.,10,785-797,doi:10.1175/1520-0426(1993)010<0785:TTITAA>2.0.CO;2.
Elliott,R.D.,and K.J.Brown,1971:The Santa Barbara II projectDownwind effects.Proceedings of International Conference on Weather Modification,Australian Academy of Science,Canberra,6-11.
Gabriel,K.R.,1999:Ratio statistics for randomized experiments in precipitation stimulation.J.Appl.Meteor.,38,290-301,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0290:RSFREI>2.0.CO;2.
Griffith,D.A.,M.E.Solak,R.D.Almy,et al.,2005:The santa barbara cloud seeding project in coastal southern California,summary of results and their implications.J.Wea.Modif.,37,21-27.
Han,L.,S.X.Fu,L.F.Zhao,et al.,2009:3D convective storm identification,tracking,and forecasting-An enhanced TI-TAN algorithm.J.Atmos.Oceanic Technol.,26,719-732,doi:10.1175/2008JTECHA1084.1.
Hobbs,P.V.,and L.F.Radke,1973:Redistribution of snowfall across a mountain range by artificial seeding:A case study.Science,181,1043-1045,doi:10.1126/science.181.4104.1043.
Jin,D.C.,Z.Y.Guan,and W.Y.Tang,2013:The extreme drought event during winter-spring of 2011 in East China:Combined influences of teleconnection in midhigh latitudes and thermal forcing in maritime continent region.J.Climate,26,8210-8222,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00652.1.
Jing,X.Q.,B.Geerts,and B.Boe,2016:The extra-area effect of orographic cloud seeding:Observational evidence of precipitation enhancement downwind of the target mountain.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,55,1409-1424,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0188.1.
Kessinger,C.,S.Ellis,J.Vanandel,et al.,2003:The AP clutter mitigation scheme for the WSR-88D.31st Conf.on Radar Meteorology,Amer.Meteor.Soc.,Seattle,WA.
Liu,L.P.,L.L.Wu,and Y.M.Yang,2007:Development of fuzzy-logical two-step ground clutter detection algorithm.Acta Meteor.Sinica,65,252-260,doi:10.11676/qxxb2007.024.(in Chinese)
Long,A.B.,2001:Review of downwind extra-area effects of precipitation enhancement.J.Wea.Modif.,33,24-45.
Maier,D.,R.Bertram,D.Klimm,et al.,2009:Influence of the atmosphere on the growth of LiYF4 single crystal fibers by the micro-pulling-down method.Cryst.Res.Technol.,44,13-140,doi:10.1002/crat.200800400.
Marshall,J.S.,and W.M.K.Palmer,1948:The distribution of raindrops with size.J.Meteor.,5,165-166,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1948)005<0165:TDORWS>2.0.CO;2.
Nirel,R.,and D.Rosenfeld,1995:Estimation of the effect of operational seeding on rain amounts in Israel.J.Appl.Meteor.,34,2220-2229,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1995)034<2220:EOTEOO>2.0.CO;2.
Pokharel,B.,B.Geerts,and X.Q.Jing,2015:The impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on clouds and precipitation over mountains:A case study of a shallow orographic cloud with large supercooled droplets.J.Geophys.Res.At-mos.,120,6056-6079,doi:10.1002/2014JD022693.
Silverman,B.A.,2001:A critical assessment of glaciogenic seeding of convective clouds for rainfall enhancement.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,82,903-924,doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0903:ACAOGS>2.3.CO;2.
Solak,M.E.,D.P.Yorty,and D.A.Griffith,2003:Estimations of downwind cloud seeding effects in Utah.J.Wea.Modif.,35,52-58.
Wise,E.A.,2005:Precipitation evaluation of the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project(NDCMP).Master dissertation,University North Dakota,Grand Forks,ND,63.
Woodley,W.L.,and D.Rosenfeld,2004:The development and testing of a new method to evaluate the operational cloudseeding programs in Texas.J.Appl.Meteor.,43,249-263,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0249:TDATOA>2.0.CO;2.
Woodley,W.L.,D.Rosenfeld,and B.A.Silverman,2003a:Results of on-top glaciogenic cloud seeding in Thailand.Part I:The demonstration experiment.J.Appl.Meteor.,42,920-938,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0920:ROOGCS>2.0CO;2.
Woodley,W.L.,D.Rosenfeld,and B.A.Silverman,2003b:Results of on-top glaciogenic cloud seeding in Thailand.Part II:Exploratory analyses.J.Appl.Meteor.,42,939-951,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0939:ROOGCS>2.0.CO;2.
Xue,L.L.,X.Chu,R.Rasmussen,et al.,2014:The dispersion of silver iodide particles from ground-based generators over complex terrain.Part II:WRF large-eddy simulations versus observations.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,1342-1361,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0241.1.
Yao,Z.Y.,2006:Review of weather modification research in Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.J.Appl.Meteor.Sci.,17,786-795,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.06.016.(in Chinese)
Zhao,Z.,and H.C.Lei,2010:Numerical simulation of seeding extra-area effects of precipitation using a three-dimensional mesoscale model.Atmos.Ocean.Sci.Lett.,3,19-24,doi:10.1080/16742834.2010.11446838.
Boe,B.A.,J.A.Jr.Heimbach,T.W.Krauss,et al.,2014:The dispersion of silver iodide particles from ground-based generators over complex terrain.Part I:Observations with acoustic ice nucleus counters.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,1325-1341,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0240.1.
Breed,D.,R.Rasmussen,C.Weeks,et al.,2014:Evaluating winter orographic cloud seeding:Design of the Wyoming Weather Modification Pilot Project(WWMPP).J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,282-299,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0128.1.
Chu,X.,L.L.Xue,B.Geerts,et al.,2014:A case study of radar observations and WRF LES simulations of the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on orographic clouds and precipitation.Part I:Observations and model validations.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,2264-2286,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0017.1.
?uri?,M.,D.Janc,and V.Vu?kovi?,2008:Precipitation change from a cumulonimbus cloud downwind of a seeded target area.J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,113,D11215,doi:10.1029/2007JD009483.
DeFelice,T.P.,J.Golden,D.Griffith,et al.,2014:Extra area effects of cloud seeding-An updated assessment.Atmos.Res.,135-136,193-203,doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.08.014.
Dennis,A.S.,1980:Weather modification by cloud seeding.Inter.Geophy.Seri,24,140-142.
Dixon,M.,and G.Wiener,1993:TITAN:Thunderstorm identification,tracking,analysis,and nowcasting-A radar-based methodology.J.Atmos.Ocean.Technol.,10,785-797,doi:10.1175/1520-0426(1993)010<0785:TTITAA>2.0.CO;2.
Elliott,R.D.,and K.J.Brown,1971:The Santa Barbara II projectDownwind effects.Proceedings of International Conference on Weather Modification,Australian Academy of Science,Canberra,6-11.
Gabriel,K.R.,1999:Ratio statistics for randomized experiments in precipitation stimulation.J.Appl.Meteor.,38,290-301,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0290:RSFREI>2.0.CO;2.
Griffith,D.A.,M.E.Solak,R.D.Almy,et al.,2005:The santa barbara cloud seeding project in coastal southern California,summary of results and their implications.J.Wea.Modif.,37,21-27.
Han,L.,S.X.Fu,L.F.Zhao,et al.,2009:3D convective storm identification,tracking,and forecasting-An enhanced TI-TAN algorithm.J.Atmos.Oceanic Technol.,26,719-732,doi:10.1175/2008JTECHA1084.1.
Hobbs,P.V.,and L.F.Radke,1973:Redistribution of snowfall across a mountain range by artificial seeding:A case study.Science,181,1043-1045,doi:10.1126/science.181.4104.1043.
Jin,D.C.,Z.Y.Guan,and W.Y.Tang,2013:The extreme drought event during winter-spring of 2011 in East China:Combined influences of teleconnection in midhigh latitudes and thermal forcing in maritime continent region.J.Climate,26,8210-8222,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00652.1.
Jing,X.Q.,B.Geerts,and B.Boe,2016:The extra-area effect of orographic cloud seeding:Observational evidence of precipitation enhancement downwind of the target mountain.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,55,1409-1424,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0188.1.
Kessinger,C.,S.Ellis,J.Vanandel,et al.,2003:The AP clutter mitigation scheme for the WSR-88D.31st Conf.on Radar Meteorology,Amer.Meteor.Soc.,Seattle,WA.
Liu,L.P.,L.L.Wu,and Y.M.Yang,2007:Development of fuzzy-logical two-step ground clutter detection algorithm.Acta Meteor.Sinica,65,252-260,doi:10.11676/qxxb2007.024.(in Chinese)
Long,A.B.,2001:Review of downwind extra-area effects of precipitation enhancement.J.Wea.Modif.,33,24-45.
Maier,D.,R.Bertram,D.Klimm,et al.,2009:Influence of the atmosphere on the growth of LiYF4 single crystal fibers by the micro-pulling-down method.Cryst.Res.Technol.,44,13-140,doi:10.1002/crat.200800400.
Marshall,J.S.,and W.M.K.Palmer,1948:The distribution of raindrops with size.J.Meteor.,5,165-166,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1948)005<0165:TDORWS>2.0.CO;2.
Nirel,R.,and D.Rosenfeld,1995:Estimation of the effect of operational seeding on rain amounts in Israel.J.Appl.Meteor.,34,2220-2229,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1995)034<2220:EOTEOO>2.0.CO;2.
Pokharel,B.,B.Geerts,and X.Q.Jing,2015:The impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on clouds and precipitation over mountains:A case study of a shallow orographic cloud with large supercooled droplets.J.Geophys.Res.At-mos.,120,6056-6079,doi:10.1002/2014JD022693.
Silverman,B.A.,2001:A critical assessment of glaciogenic seeding of convective clouds for rainfall enhancement.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,82,903-924,doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0903:ACAOGS>2.3.CO;2.
Solak,M.E.,D.P.Yorty,and D.A.Griffith,2003:Estimations of downwind cloud seeding effects in Utah.J.Wea.Modif.,35,52-58.
Wise,E.A.,2005:Precipitation evaluation of the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project(NDCMP).Master dissertation,University North Dakota,Grand Forks,ND,63.
Woodley,W.L.,and D.Rosenfeld,2004:The development and testing of a new method to evaluate the operational cloudseeding programs in Texas.J.Appl.Meteor.,43,249-263,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0249:TDATOA>2.0.CO;2.
Woodley,W.L.,D.Rosenfeld,and B.A.Silverman,2003a:Results of on-top glaciogenic cloud seeding in Thailand.Part I:The demonstration experiment.J.Appl.Meteor.,42,920-938,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0920:ROOGCS>2.0CO;2.
Woodley,W.L.,D.Rosenfeld,and B.A.Silverman,2003b:Results of on-top glaciogenic cloud seeding in Thailand.Part II:Exploratory analyses.J.Appl.Meteor.,42,939-951,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0939:ROOGCS>2.0.CO;2.
Xue,L.L.,X.Chu,R.Rasmussen,et al.,2014:The dispersion of silver iodide particles from ground-based generators over complex terrain.Part II:WRF large-eddy simulations versus observations.J.Appl.Meteor.Climatol.,53,1342-1361,doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0241.1.
Yao,Z.Y.,2006:Review of weather modification research in Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.J.Appl.Meteor.Sci.,17,786-795,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.06.016.(in Chinese)
Zhao,Z.,and H.C.Lei,2010:Numerical simulation of seeding extra-area effects of precipitation using a three-dimensional mesoscale model.Atmos.Ocean.Sci.Lett.,3,19-24,doi:10.1080/16742834.2010.11446838.