中国重点产业创新产出时空分异及影响因素
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摘要
采用Mann-Kendall、Theil指数、空间马尔科夫链等方法,对1994-2014年中国十大重点产业创新产出时空演化进行分析,并对创新发展空间分异成因进行了探讨。研究表明:①研究期内,中国重点产业创新产出分为两个时段,成果呈指数型增长;②创新产出差异先增后减,东、中、西、东北板块间差异小于板块内部,创新产出发展呈现出传染扩散与等级扩散的双重特征;③邻域环境影响创新发展,创新产出水平发生类型转移的单元集中在东、中部地区,且活跃度不断提升;④经济社会与政策条件、高等教育基础条件对重点产业创新发展有明显的正向驱动作用,而工业化程度影响微弱,未来加强对高等教育基础与智力资本的投入可进一步增强重点产业创新发展竞争力。
The innovation, development and technological progress of the ten key industries (iron and steel, automobiles, ships, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, nonferrous metals,equipment manufacturing, electronic information and logistics) in China are highly concerned by the state and expected by the public. So the research on it is of great significance. Firstly, the Mann-Kendall method is used to divide the development stages of the ten key industries of China from 1994 to 2014, and to understand the evolution of the key industries. Secondly, this paper analyzes the innovation output difference, spatial pattern and spatial-temporal transfer characteristics of key industries in the prefecture-level cities by using the Theil index, Markov and spatial Markov chains method respectively. Finally, based on factor analysis and multiple regression model, this paper discusses the factors that influence the spatial differentiation of the innovation development of the ten key industries in China. The conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) The development of the innovation outputs of the ten key industries can be divided into two stages(the first stage is from 1995 to 2006, the second stage is from 2007 to 2014),and the result of innovation outputs of the ten key industries is in exponential growth.(2) The difference of the innovation outputs of the ten key industries increased at first and then decreased, and the inter-regional difference among the four regions(Eastern, Central, Western and Northeastern China) is less than the intra-regional difference. The development of innovation outputs of the ten key industries presents the dual characteristics of contagious and hierarchical diffusion.(3) The neighborhood environment plays an important role in the development of the ten key industries. Under different environmental constraints, the transition probability of different types of unit is different, and the higher the neighborhood environment level is, the stronger the driving force to low level units is. In the two periods, the transferred units of the innovation outputs of the ten key industries are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions of China. The activity of the transfer is increasing, and the transferred units are concentrated in spatial distribution.(4) The social economic and policy factors and the basic condition of higher education have obvious positive driving effect on the innovation and development of the ten key industries, while the effect of industrialization is weak. In the next period of time, the innovation and development competitiveness of the ten key industries can be improved by strengthening the investment in the foundation of higher education and intellectual capital.
The innovation, development and technological progress of the ten key industries (iron and steel, automobiles, ships, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, nonferrous metals,equipment manufacturing, electronic information and logistics) in China are highly concerned by the state and expected by the public. So the research on it is of great significance. Firstly, the Mann-Kendall method is used to divide the development stages of the ten key industries of China from 1994 to 2014, and to understand the evolution of the key industries. Secondly, this paper analyzes the innovation output difference, spatial pattern and spatial-temporal transfer characteristics of key industries in the prefecture-level cities by using the Theil index, Markov and spatial Markov chains method respectively. Finally, based on factor analysis and multiple regression model, this paper discusses the factors that influence the spatial differentiation of the innovation development of the ten key industries in China. The conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) The development of the innovation outputs of the ten key industries can be divided into two stages(the first stage is from 1995 to 2006, the second stage is from 2007 to 2014),and the result of innovation outputs of the ten key industries is in exponential growth.(2) The difference of the innovation outputs of the ten key industries increased at first and then decreased, and the inter-regional difference among the four regions(Eastern, Central, Western and Northeastern China) is less than the intra-regional difference. The development of innovation outputs of the ten key industries presents the dual characteristics of contagious and hierarchical diffusion.(3) The neighborhood environment plays an important role in the development of the ten key industries. Under different environmental constraints, the transition probability of different types of unit is different, and the higher the neighborhood environment level is, the stronger the driving force to low level units is. In the two periods, the transferred units of the innovation outputs of the ten key industries are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions of China. The activity of the transfer is increasing, and the transferred units are concentrated in spatial distribution.(4) The social economic and policy factors and the basic condition of higher education have obvious positive driving effect on the innovation and development of the ten key industries, while the effect of industrialization is weak. In the next period of time, the innovation and development competitiveness of the ten key industries can be improved by strengthening the investment in the foundation of higher education and intellectual capital.
引文
[1]涂晓今.我国促进重点产业结构优化升级的财政政策创新探讨.财政研究,2012,(2):8-12.[Tu Xiaojin.Discussion on the innovation of fiscal policy to promote the optimization and upgrading of key industries.Public Finance Research,2012,(2):8-12.]
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[5]Maggioni M A,Uberti T E,Nosvelli M.Does intentional mean hierarchical?Knowledge flows and innovative performance of European regions.The Annals of Regional Science,2014,53(2):453-485.
[6]Audretsch D B,Feldman M P.R&D spillovers and the geography of innovation and production.The American Economic Review,1996,86(3):630-640.
[7]Verspagen B,Schoenmakers W.The spatial dimension of patenting by multinational firms in Europe.Journal of Economic Geography,2004,4(1):23-42.
[8]Andersson R,Quigley J M,Wilhelmsson M.Agglomeration and the spatial distribution of creativity.Papers in Regional Science,2005,84(3):445-464.
[9]Fornahl D,Brenner T.Geographic concentration of innovative activities in Germany.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2009,20(3):163-182.
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[11]方创琳,马海涛,王振波,等.中国创新型城市建设的综合评估与空间格局分异.地理学报,2014,69(4):459-473.[Fang Chuanglin,Ma Haitao,Wang Zhenbo,et al.Comprehensive assessment and spatial heterogeneity of the construction of innovative cities in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(4):459-473.]
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[15]程叶青,王哲野,马靖.中国区域创新的时空动态分析.地理学报,2014,69(12):1779-1789.[Cheng Yeqing,Wang Zheye,Ma Jing.Analyzing the space-time dynamics of innovation in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1779-1789.]
[16]王春杨,张超.中国地级区域创新产出的时空模式研究:基于ESDA的实证.地理科学,2014,34(12):1438-1444.[Wang Chunyang,Zhang Chao.Spatial-temporal pattern of prefecture-level innovation outputs in China:An investigation using the ESDA.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(12):1438-1444.]
[17]王俊松,颜燕,胡曙虹.中国城市技术创新能力的空间特征及影响因素:基于空间面板数据模型的研究.地理科学,2017,37(1):11-18.[Wang Junsong,Yan Yan,Hu Shuhong.Spatial pattern and determinants of Chinese urban innovative capabilities based on spatial panel data model.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(1):11-18.]
[18]肖刚,杜德斌,李恒,等.长江中游城市群城市创新差异的时空格局演变.长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):199-207.[Xiao Gang,Du Debin,Li Heng,et al.The temporal and spatial evolution of city innovation differences in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(2):199-207.]
[19]王承云,孙飞翔.长三角城市创新空间的集聚与溢出效应.地理研究,2017,36(6):1042-1052.[Wang Chengyun,Sun Feixiang.Spatial agglomeration and spillover effects of urban innovation in Yangtze River Delta.Geographical Research,2017,36(6):1042-1052.]
[20]滕堂伟,方文婷.新长三角城市群创新空间格局演化与机理.经济地理,2017,37(4):66-75.[Teng Tangwei,Fang Wenting.The evolution of innovation space and its mechanism in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Economic Geography,2017,37(4):66-75.]
[21]徐维祥,杨蕾,刘程军,等.长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因.地理科学,2017,37(4):502-511.[Xu Weixiang,Yang Lei,Liu Chengjun,et al.Temporal-spatial evolution characteristics and its causes of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(4):502-511.]
[22]Li D,Wei Y D,Wang T.Spatial and temporal evolution of urban innovation network in China.Habitat International,2015,49:484-496.
[23]Wang Y,Sutherland D,Ning L,et al.The evolving nature of China's regional innovation systems:Insights from an exploration-exploitation approach.Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2015,100(13):140-152.
[24]吕拉昌.创新地理学.北京:科学出版社,2017.[Lv Lachang.The Geography of Innovation.Beijing:Science Press,2017.]
[25]蒋天颖.浙江省区域创新产出空间分异特征及成因.地理研究,2014,33(10):1825-1836.[Jiang Tianyin.Spatial differentiation and its influencing factors of regional innovation output in Zhejiang province.Geographical Research,2014,33(10):1825-1836.]
[26]李国平,王春杨.我国省域创新产出的空间特征和时空演化:基于探索性空间数据分析的实证.地理研究,2012,31(1):95-106.[Li Guoping,Wang Chunyang.Spatial characteristics and dynamic changes of provincial innovation output in China:An investigation using the ESDA.Geographical Research,2012,31(1):95-106.]
[27]朱杰,管卫华,蒋志欣,等.江苏省城市经济影响区格局变化.地理学报,2007,62(10):1023-1033.[Zhu Jie,Guan Weihua,Jiang Zhixin,et al.The evolution of urban economic effect regions in Jiangsu province since 1978.Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(10):1023-1033.]
[28]Ying L G.China's changing regional disparities during the reform period.Economic Geography,1999,75(1):59-70.
[29]蒲英霞,马荣华,葛莹,等.基于空间马尔可夫链的江苏区域趋同时空演变.地理学报,2005,60(5):817-826.[Pu Yingxia,Ma Ronghua,Ge Ying,et al.Spatial-temporal dynamics of Jiangsu regional convergence with spatial Markov chains approach.Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(5):817-826.]
[30]国务院.国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要:2006-2020年.http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/kjfzgh/,2017-03-06.[The State Council of China.National Long-term Scientific and Technological Development Plan:2006-2020.http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/kjfzgh/,2017-03-06.]
[31]蒋天颖.我国区域创新差异时空格局演化及其影响因素分析.经济地理,2013,33(6):22-29.[Jiang Tianyin.Study on spatial and temporal evolution and factors of regional innovation in China.Economic Geography,2013,33(6):22-29.]
[32]曹勇,曹轩祯,罗楚珺,等.我国四大直辖城市创新能力及其影响因素的比较研究.中国软科学,2013,(6):162-170.[Cao Yong,Cao Xuanzhen,Luo Chujun,et al.Comparative study on Chinese four municipalities'innovation capability and its influencing factors based on panel data.China Soft Science,2013,(6):162-170.]
[33]桂黄宝.我国高技术产业创新效率及其影响因素空间计量分析.经济地理,2014,34(6):100-107.[Gui Huangbao.Innovation efficiency and its influencing factors of China's high-tech industry based on the spatial econometric model.Economic Geography,2014,34(6):100-107.]
[34]蔡海霞,范如国.FDI技术溢出、能源约束与区域创新产出分析.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):50-55.[Cai Haixia,Fan Ruguo.FDI spillover effect,energy constraints and regional innovation output analysis.China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(11):50-55.]
[2]Feldman M P.The Geography of Innovation.Maryland:Springer,1994.
[3]Acs Z J,Anselin L,Varga A.Patents and innovation counts as measures of regional production of new knowledge.Research Policy,2002,31(7):1069-1085.
[4]Agrawal A,Cockburn I,Galasso A,et al.Why are some regions more innovative than others?The role of small firms in the presence of large labs.Journal of Urban Economics,2014,81:149-165.
[5]Maggioni M A,Uberti T E,Nosvelli M.Does intentional mean hierarchical?Knowledge flows and innovative performance of European regions.The Annals of Regional Science,2014,53(2):453-485.
[6]Audretsch D B,Feldman M P.R&D spillovers and the geography of innovation and production.The American Economic Review,1996,86(3):630-640.
[7]Verspagen B,Schoenmakers W.The spatial dimension of patenting by multinational firms in Europe.Journal of Economic Geography,2004,4(1):23-42.
[8]Andersson R,Quigley J M,Wilhelmsson M.Agglomeration and the spatial distribution of creativity.Papers in Regional Science,2005,84(3):445-464.
[9]Fornahl D,Brenner T.Geographic concentration of innovative activities in Germany.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2009,20(3):163-182.
[10]Feldman M P.The internet revolution and the geography of innovation.International Social Science Journal,2002,54(171):47-56.
[11]方创琳,马海涛,王振波,等.中国创新型城市建设的综合评估与空间格局分异.地理学报,2014,69(4):459-473.[Fang Chuanglin,Ma Haitao,Wang Zhenbo,et al.Comprehensive assessment and spatial heterogeneity of the construction of innovative cities in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(4):459-473.]
[12]吕拉昌,李勇.基于城市创新职能的中国创新城市空间体系.地理学报,2010,65(2):177-190.[Lv Lachang,Li Yong.A research on Chinese renovation urban system based on urban renovation function.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(2):177-190.]
[13]柳御林,胡志坚.中国区域创新能力的分布与成因.科学学研究,2002,20(5):550-556.[Liu Yulin,Hu Zhijian.The pattern of China regional innovation capability and its implication.Studies in Science of Science,2002,20(5):550-556.]
[14]侯纯光,程钰,任建兰,等.中国创新能力时空格局演变及其影响因素.地理科学进展,2016,35(10):1206-1217.[Hou Chunguang,ChengYu,Ren Jianlan,et al.Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of innovation capacity in China.Progress in Geography,2016,35(10):1206-1217.]
[15]程叶青,王哲野,马靖.中国区域创新的时空动态分析.地理学报,2014,69(12):1779-1789.[Cheng Yeqing,Wang Zheye,Ma Jing.Analyzing the space-time dynamics of innovation in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1779-1789.]
[16]王春杨,张超.中国地级区域创新产出的时空模式研究:基于ESDA的实证.地理科学,2014,34(12):1438-1444.[Wang Chunyang,Zhang Chao.Spatial-temporal pattern of prefecture-level innovation outputs in China:An investigation using the ESDA.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(12):1438-1444.]
[17]王俊松,颜燕,胡曙虹.中国城市技术创新能力的空间特征及影响因素:基于空间面板数据模型的研究.地理科学,2017,37(1):11-18.[Wang Junsong,Yan Yan,Hu Shuhong.Spatial pattern and determinants of Chinese urban innovative capabilities based on spatial panel data model.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(1):11-18.]
[18]肖刚,杜德斌,李恒,等.长江中游城市群城市创新差异的时空格局演变.长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):199-207.[Xiao Gang,Du Debin,Li Heng,et al.The temporal and spatial evolution of city innovation differences in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(2):199-207.]
[19]王承云,孙飞翔.长三角城市创新空间的集聚与溢出效应.地理研究,2017,36(6):1042-1052.[Wang Chengyun,Sun Feixiang.Spatial agglomeration and spillover effects of urban innovation in Yangtze River Delta.Geographical Research,2017,36(6):1042-1052.]
[20]滕堂伟,方文婷.新长三角城市群创新空间格局演化与机理.经济地理,2017,37(4):66-75.[Teng Tangwei,Fang Wenting.The evolution of innovation space and its mechanism in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Economic Geography,2017,37(4):66-75.]
[21]徐维祥,杨蕾,刘程军,等.长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因.地理科学,2017,37(4):502-511.[Xu Weixiang,Yang Lei,Liu Chengjun,et al.Temporal-spatial evolution characteristics and its causes of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(4):502-511.]
[22]Li D,Wei Y D,Wang T.Spatial and temporal evolution of urban innovation network in China.Habitat International,2015,49:484-496.
[23]Wang Y,Sutherland D,Ning L,et al.The evolving nature of China's regional innovation systems:Insights from an exploration-exploitation approach.Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2015,100(13):140-152.
[24]吕拉昌.创新地理学.北京:科学出版社,2017.[Lv Lachang.The Geography of Innovation.Beijing:Science Press,2017.]
[25]蒋天颖.浙江省区域创新产出空间分异特征及成因.地理研究,2014,33(10):1825-1836.[Jiang Tianyin.Spatial differentiation and its influencing factors of regional innovation output in Zhejiang province.Geographical Research,2014,33(10):1825-1836.]
[26]李国平,王春杨.我国省域创新产出的空间特征和时空演化:基于探索性空间数据分析的实证.地理研究,2012,31(1):95-106.[Li Guoping,Wang Chunyang.Spatial characteristics and dynamic changes of provincial innovation output in China:An investigation using the ESDA.Geographical Research,2012,31(1):95-106.]
[27]朱杰,管卫华,蒋志欣,等.江苏省城市经济影响区格局变化.地理学报,2007,62(10):1023-1033.[Zhu Jie,Guan Weihua,Jiang Zhixin,et al.The evolution of urban economic effect regions in Jiangsu province since 1978.Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(10):1023-1033.]
[28]Ying L G.China's changing regional disparities during the reform period.Economic Geography,1999,75(1):59-70.
[29]蒲英霞,马荣华,葛莹,等.基于空间马尔可夫链的江苏区域趋同时空演变.地理学报,2005,60(5):817-826.[Pu Yingxia,Ma Ronghua,Ge Ying,et al.Spatial-temporal dynamics of Jiangsu regional convergence with spatial Markov chains approach.Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(5):817-826.]
[30]国务院.国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要:2006-2020年.http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/kjfzgh/,2017-03-06.[The State Council of China.National Long-term Scientific and Technological Development Plan:2006-2020.http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/kjfzgh/,2017-03-06.]
[31]蒋天颖.我国区域创新差异时空格局演化及其影响因素分析.经济地理,2013,33(6):22-29.[Jiang Tianyin.Study on spatial and temporal evolution and factors of regional innovation in China.Economic Geography,2013,33(6):22-29.]
[32]曹勇,曹轩祯,罗楚珺,等.我国四大直辖城市创新能力及其影响因素的比较研究.中国软科学,2013,(6):162-170.[Cao Yong,Cao Xuanzhen,Luo Chujun,et al.Comparative study on Chinese four municipalities'innovation capability and its influencing factors based on panel data.China Soft Science,2013,(6):162-170.]
[33]桂黄宝.我国高技术产业创新效率及其影响因素空间计量分析.经济地理,2014,34(6):100-107.[Gui Huangbao.Innovation efficiency and its influencing factors of China's high-tech industry based on the spatial econometric model.Economic Geography,2014,34(6):100-107.]
[34]蔡海霞,范如国.FDI技术溢出、能源约束与区域创新产出分析.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(11):50-55.[Cai Haixia,Fan Ruguo.FDI spillover effect,energy constraints and regional innovation output analysis.China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(11):50-55.]