基于STIRPAT模型和Tapio脱钩模型的废水排放驱动因素研究——以重庆市为例
|
摘要
利用重庆市2000—2015年废水年排放量及社会经济统计数据,根据STIRPAT模型,通过相关性分析和岭回归分析获得人口数量、城镇化率、财富水平、COD年排放量、非第三产业占比与废水年排放量的关系,并采用Tapio脱钩模型界定人均GDP与废水年排放量之间的关系。结果表明:导致废水年排放量变化的3个主要驱动因素为财富水平、COD年排放量和人口数量;在观测时段内,重庆市存在"倒U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线。对重庆市废水年排放量进行分解,发现重庆市废水年排放量较为稳定,工业废水年排放量呈缓慢下降的趋势,而生活废水年排放量呈逐步上升的趋势,并逐渐成为重庆市废水排放的主要来源;重庆市经济增长与工业废水年排放量处于强脱钩与弱脱钩交替状态,而经济增长与生活废水年排放量始终处于弱脱钩状态。
In this paper,correlation analysis and ridge regression analysis were conducted using the STIRPAT model to analyze the connection between annual wastewater discharge and population size,urbanization rate,affluence,annual emissions of COD and share of non-tertiary industry from 2000 to 2015.And the Tapio decoupling model was assumed to define the relationship between per capita GDP and annual wastewater discharge.The results showed that the three main factors leading to the change of annual wastewater discharge were population size,affluence,and annual emissions of COD.The overall findings supported the "inverted U-shape"environment Kuznets curve hypothesis.During the study period,annual wastewater discharge in Chongqing remained stable,annual industrial wastewater discharge decreased slowly and annual domestic wastewater discharge showed a trend of escalation and gradually become the main source of wastewater discharge in Chongqing.The economic growth of Chongqing and the annual industrial wastewater discharge were in an alterate strong state and weak state of decoupling while the economic growth and the annual domestic wastewater discharge were always in a weak state of decoupling.
In this paper,correlation analysis and ridge regression analysis were conducted using the STIRPAT model to analyze the connection between annual wastewater discharge and population size,urbanization rate,affluence,annual emissions of COD and share of non-tertiary industry from 2000 to 2015.And the Tapio decoupling model was assumed to define the relationship between per capita GDP and annual wastewater discharge.The results showed that the three main factors leading to the change of annual wastewater discharge were population size,affluence,and annual emissions of COD.The overall findings supported the "inverted U-shape"environment Kuznets curve hypothesis.During the study period,annual wastewater discharge in Chongqing remained stable,annual industrial wastewater discharge decreased slowly and annual domestic wastewater discharge showed a trend of escalation and gradually become the main source of wastewater discharge in Chongqing.The economic growth of Chongqing and the annual industrial wastewater discharge were in an alterate strong state and weak state of decoupling while the economic growth and the annual domestic wastewater discharge were always in a weak state of decoupling.
引文
[1]吴攀,秦伯强,于革,等.太湖上游流域经济发展对废水排放及入湖总磷的影响[J].湖泊科学,2015,27(6):1107-1114.
[2]李崇梅,傅崇辉.人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态稳定性研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(6):1169-1178.
[3]吴健,胡冬雯,王敏,等.上海人口变化与资源环境效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(4):164-168.
[4]刘平,王超,魏源送,等.技术进步和结构调整对天津市工业废水排放变化贡献分析[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(5):1098-1104.
[5]渠慎宁,郭朝先.基于STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放峰值预测研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(12):10-15.
[6]KWON T H.Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO2emission from car travel in great Britain(1970-2000)[J].Ecological Economics,2005,53(2):261-275.
[7]王立猛,何康林.基于STIRPAT模型的环境压力空间差异分析:以能源消费为例[J].环境科学学报,2008,28(5):1032-1037.
[8]YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T.STIRPAT,IPAT and IMPACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2003,46(3):351-365.
[9]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1997,94(1):175-179.
[10]郭卫华,周永章,阚兴龙.1990—2012年广东省废水排放特征及其驱动因素——基于STIRPAT模型和脱钩指数的研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(2):7-10.
[11]王旭,王永刚,孙长虹,等.社会经济因素对北京市水环境压力的影响:基于STIRPAT模型[J].环境科学与技术,2015,38(12):48-52.
[12]蒋惠凤.江苏省废污水排放驱动因素及脱钩效应——基于STIRPAT模型和OECD脱钩指数的研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(12):43-49.
[13]金淑婷,石培基,李博,等.基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(5):875-882.
[14]EHRHARDT M K.Social determinants of deforestation in developing countries:a cross-national study[J].Social Forces,1998,77(2):567-586.
[15]GROSSMAN G,KRUEGER A.Economic growth and the environment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[16]宋伟,陈百明,陈曦炜.常熟市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩(decoupling)评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1532-1540.
[17]彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋.等.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):626-633.
[18]TAPIO P.Towards a theory of decoupling:degrees of decoupling in the EU and the ease of road traffic in Finland between 1970and2001[J].Journal of Transport Policy,2005,12(2):137-151.
[2]李崇梅,傅崇辉.人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态稳定性研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(6):1169-1178.
[3]吴健,胡冬雯,王敏,等.上海人口变化与资源环境效应分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(4):164-168.
[4]刘平,王超,魏源送,等.技术进步和结构调整对天津市工业废水排放变化贡献分析[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(5):1098-1104.
[5]渠慎宁,郭朝先.基于STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放峰值预测研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(12):10-15.
[6]KWON T H.Decomposition of factors determining the trend of CO2emission from car travel in great Britain(1970-2000)[J].Ecological Economics,2005,53(2):261-275.
[7]王立猛,何康林.基于STIRPAT模型的环境压力空间差异分析:以能源消费为例[J].环境科学学报,2008,28(5):1032-1037.
[8]YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T.STIRPAT,IPAT and IMPACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2003,46(3):351-365.
[9]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1997,94(1):175-179.
[10]郭卫华,周永章,阚兴龙.1990—2012年广东省废水排放特征及其驱动因素——基于STIRPAT模型和脱钩指数的研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(2):7-10.
[11]王旭,王永刚,孙长虹,等.社会经济因素对北京市水环境压力的影响:基于STIRPAT模型[J].环境科学与技术,2015,38(12):48-52.
[12]蒋惠凤.江苏省废污水排放驱动因素及脱钩效应——基于STIRPAT模型和OECD脱钩指数的研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(12):43-49.
[13]金淑婷,石培基,李博,等.基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(5):875-882.
[14]EHRHARDT M K.Social determinants of deforestation in developing countries:a cross-national study[J].Social Forces,1998,77(2):567-586.
[15]GROSSMAN G,KRUEGER A.Economic growth and the environment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[16]宋伟,陈百明,陈曦炜.常熟市耕地占用与经济增长的脱钩(decoupling)评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1532-1540.
[17]彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋.等.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):626-633.
[18]TAPIO P.Towards a theory of decoupling:degrees of decoupling in the EU and the ease of road traffic in Finland between 1970and2001[J].Journal of Transport Policy,2005,12(2):137-151.