DYNAMICAL PREDICTION OF WEST CHINA AUTUMN RAINFALL BY THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
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摘要
This study investigates the variation and prediction of the west China autumn rainfall(WCAR) and their associated atmospheric circulation features, focusing on the transitional stages of onset and demise of the WCAR.Output from the 45-day hindcast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) and several observational data sets are used. The onset of WCAR generally occurs at pentad 46 and decays at pentad 56, with heavy rainfall over the northwestern China and moderate rainfall over the south. Before that,southerly wind changes into southeasterly wind, accompanied by a westward expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), favoring rainfall over west China. On the other hand, during the decay of WCAR, a continental cold high develops and the WPSH weakens and shifts eastward, accompanied by a demise of southwest monsoon flow, leading to decay of rainfall over west China. The CFSv2 generally well captures the variation of WCAR owing to the high skill in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation, despite an overestimation of rainfall. This overestimation occurs at all time leads due to the overestimated low-level southerly wind. The CFSv2 can pinpoint the dates of onset and demise of WCAR at the leads up to 5 days and 40 days, respectively. The lower prediction skill for WCAR onset is due to the unrealistically predicted northerly wind anomaly over the lower branch of the Yangtze River and the underestimated movement of WPSH after lead time of 5 days.
This study investigates the variation and prediction of the west China autumn rainfall(WCAR) and their associated atmospheric circulation features, focusing on the transitional stages of onset and demise of the WCAR.Output from the 45-day hindcast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) and several observational data sets are used. The onset of WCAR generally occurs at pentad 46 and decays at pentad 56, with heavy rainfall over the northwestern China and moderate rainfall over the south. Before that,southerly wind changes into southeasterly wind, accompanied by a westward expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), favoring rainfall over west China. On the other hand, during the decay of WCAR, a continental cold high develops and the WPSH weakens and shifts eastward, accompanied by a demise of southwest monsoon flow, leading to decay of rainfall over west China. The CFSv2 generally well captures the variation of WCAR owing to the high skill in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation, despite an overestimation of rainfall. This overestimation occurs at all time leads due to the overestimated low-level southerly wind. The CFSv2 can pinpoint the dates of onset and demise of WCAR at the leads up to 5 days and 40 days, respectively. The lower prediction skill for WCAR onset is due to the unrealistically predicted northerly wind anomaly over the lower branch of the Yangtze River and the underestimated movement of WPSH after lead time of 5 days.
This study investigates the variation and prediction of the west China autumn rainfall(WCAR) and their associated atmospheric circulation features, focusing on the transitional stages of onset and demise of the WCAR.Output from the 45-day hindcast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) and several observational data sets are used. The onset of WCAR generally occurs at pentad 46 and decays at pentad 56, with heavy rainfall over the northwestern China and moderate rainfall over the south. Before that,southerly wind changes into southeasterly wind, accompanied by a westward expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), favoring rainfall over west China. On the other hand, during the decay of WCAR, a continental cold high develops and the WPSH weakens and shifts eastward, accompanied by a demise of southwest monsoon flow, leading to decay of rainfall over west China. The CFSv2 generally well captures the variation of WCAR owing to the high skill in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation, despite an overestimation of rainfall. This overestimation occurs at all time leads due to the overestimated low-level southerly wind. The CFSv2 can pinpoint the dates of onset and demise of WCAR at the leads up to 5 days and 40 days, respectively. The lower prediction skill for WCAR onset is due to the unrealistically predicted northerly wind anomaly over the lower branch of the Yangtze River and the underestimated movement of WPSH after lead time of 5 days.
引文
[1]ZHANG Bao-kun.Climatic region of Szechwan province[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,1941,17(Suppl.1):111-144(in Chinese).
[2]BAI Hu-zhi,DONG Wen-jie.Climate features and formation causes of autumn rain over southwest China[J].Plateau Meteor,2004,23(6):884-889(in Chinese).
[3]YUAN Xu,LIU Xuan-fei.Onset-withdrawal dates of autumn persistent rains over western China and the associated autumn to winter evolution of the atmospheric circulation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,2013,71(5):913-924(in Chinese).
[4]KAO Yu-shie,KUO Chi-yun.On the autumn raining area in China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,1958,29(4):264-273(in Chinese).
[5]LIANG Jian-hong.The regional and seasonal distribution of autumn rain in west China[J].Sci Geogra Sinica,1989,9(1):51-59(in Chinese).
[6]WANG Zun-ya,DING Yi-hui.Climatic characteristics of rainy seasons in China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,2008,32(1):1-13(in Chinese).
[7]YU Ya-xun,WANG Shi-gong,QIAN Zheng-an,et al.Climatic linkages between SHWP position and EASMrainy-belts and-areas in east part of China in summer half year[J].Plateau Meteor,2013,32(5):1510-1525(in Chinese).
[8]BAO Yuan-yuan,ABULIMITI L F,WANG X W.Space-time distribution and physical mechanisms of autumn rains in west China in 2001[J].J Appl Meteor,2003,14(2):215-222(in Chinese).
[9]CAI Xiang-ning,KANG Zhi-ming,NIU Ruo-yun,et al.Analysis of features and physical mechanisms of 2011autumn rainfall in west China[J].Mon Meteor,2012,38(7):828-833(in Chinese).
[10]LI Ying,LI Wei-jing,AI Wan-xiu,et al.Analysis of autumn rainfall characteristics and its causes in west China in 2011[J].Adv Met S&T,2012,2(3):27-33(in Chinese).
[11]LIU Yan-ju,SUN Leng,SUN Cheng-hu,et al.Analysis of anomalies of autumn rain in west China in 2011[J].Mon Meteor,2012,38(4):456-463(in Chinese).
[12]WANG Chun-xue,MA Zhen-feng,ZHANG Shun-qian,et al.Establish and analysis of the daily monitoring index for Huaxi autumn rain[J].Mon Meteor,2014,40(8):957-964(in Chinese).
[13]HUANG Yan,ZHANG Ren-he,GONG Zhi-qiang,et al.An objectively quantitative division for rainy seasons in China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,2014,72(6):1186-1204(in Chinese).
[14]REN Bing-tan,LI Hui-ying.A preliminary approach to rainy autumns over West China in recent 2000 years[J].Mon Meteor,1987,13(9):21-24(in Chinese).
[15]JIANG Zhu-jiang,MA Zhen-feng,LIU Jia,et al.Improved index and climatological characteristics of the autumn rain in western China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,2014,38(1):32-44(in Chinese).
[16]WANG Chun-xue,MA Zhen-feng,WANG Jia-jin,et al.The characteristics of Huaxi autumn rain and its relationship with sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,2015,39(3):643-652(in Chinese).
[17]XU Kang,ZHU Cong-wen,WANG Wei-qiang.The cooperative impacts of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the interannual variability of autumn rainfall in China[J].Int J Climatol,2016,36(4):1987-1999.
[18]FENG Li-wen,GUO Qi-yun.The fluctuation of autumn rain in southwest China[J].Geogra Res,1983,2(1):74-84(in Chinese).
[19]ZHAO Shan-shan,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Yu,et al.Change in autumn precipitation in Weihe and Hanshui river basins[J].Adv Climate Change Res,2006,2(4):181-183(in Chinese).
[20]XUE Chun-fang,HOU Wei,ZHAO Jun-hu,et al.The application of ensemble empirical mode decomposition method in multiscale analysis of region precipitation and its response to the climate change[J].Acta Phys Sin,2013,62(10):504-511(in Chinese).
[21]XUE Chun-fang,DONG Wen-jie,LI Qing,et al.Climate characteristic and formative cause of autumn rain in Weihe river basin in recent 50 years[J].Plateau Meteor,2012,31(2):409-417(in Chinese).
[22]LUO Xiao,LI Dong-liang,WANG Hui.New evolution features of autumn rainfall in west China and its responses to atmospheric circulation[J].Plateau Meteor,2013,32(4):1019-1031(in Chinese).
[23]WANG Chun-xue,MA Zhen-feng,SHAO Peng-cheng,et al.Climate variation of Huaxi autumn rain and the impact factors influencing it[J].Arid Zone Res,2015,32(6):1113-1121(in Chinese).
[24]CHEN Zhong-ming,LIU Fu-ming,ZHAO Ping,et al.Relationship between the surface heating fields over Qinghai Xizang Plateau and precipitation of southwest China in autumn[J].Plateau Meteor,2001,20(1):94-99(in Chinese).
[25]AI Kai,ZHENG Yi-qun,ZENG Xin-min,et al.Effect of different cloud microphysical parameterization schemes of WFR model on autumn precipitation over west China[J].JMeteor Environ,2016,32(2):1-10(in Chinese).
[26]SHAO Jian,DING Yong-hong,ZHAO Guang-ping,et al.Diagnosis and analysis of anomaly of constantly rainy weather over Ningxia province during autumn in 2007[J].J Shananxi Meteor,2009,(1):18-22(in Chinese).
[27]HE Min.Long-range forecast and distribution of autumn rain area in China[J].Mon Meteor,1984,(9):10-13(in Chinese).
[28]LIU Jia,XU Jin-xia,MA Zhen-feng,et al.Evaluation of flood season prediction in southwest region by the Second-Generation Monthly Dynamic Extended-Range Forecast[J].Plateau Meteor,2014,33(6):1468-1479(in Chinese).
[29]PAN Liu-jie,ZHANG Hong-fang,YUAN Yuan,et al.Verification of precipitation forecasting for autumn continuous rainfall by T639 refined grid model in Shaanxi province[J].J Meteor Envi,2015,31(6):9-17(in Chinese).
[30]SAHA S,NADIGA S,THIAW C,et al.The NCEP climate forecast system[J].J Climate,2006,19(15):3483-3517,doi:10.1175/JCLI3812.1.
[31]SAHA S,MOORTHI S,PAN H L,et al.The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2010,91(8):1015-1057.
[32]GAO Hui,YANG Song,KUMAR A,et al.Variations of the East Asian Mei-Yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP climate forecast system[J].J Climate,2011,24(1):94-108.
[33]YANG Song,ZHANG Zu-qiang,KOUSKY V E,et al.Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system[J].J Climate,2008,21(15):3755-3775.
[34]LI Yue-qing,YANG Song.A dynamical index for the east Asian winter monsoon[J].J Climate,2010,23(15):4255-4262.
[35]ZUO Zhi-yan,YANG Song,HU Zeng-Zhen,et al.Predictable patterns and predictive skills of monsoon precipitation in northern hemisphere summer in NCEPCFSv2 reforecasts[J].Climate Dyn,2013,40(11-12):3071-3088.
[36]KIM Hye-Mi,WEBSTER P J,CURRY J A.Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF system 4 and NCEP CFSv2retrospective forecast for the northern hemisphere winter[J].Climate Dyn,2012,39(12):2957-2973.
[37]JIANG Xing-wen,YANG Song,LI Yue-qing,et al.Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version2[J].J Climate,2013,26(11):3708-3727.
[38]WANG Wan-qiu,HUNG Meng-Pai,WEAVER SCOTT J,et al.MJO prediction in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J].Climate Dyn,2014,42(9-10):2509-2520.
[39]GAO Zong-ting,HU Zeng-Zhen,BHASKAR J,et al.Variability and predictability of northeast China climate during 1948-2012[J].Climate Dyn,2014,43(3-4):787-804.
[40]ZHAO Si-yu,YANG Song.Dynamical prediction of the early season rainfall over southern China by the NCEPclimate forecast system[J].Wea Forecasting,2014,29(6):1391-1401.
[41]ZHAO Si-yu,YANG Song,DENG Yi,et al.Skills of yearly prediction of the early-season rainfall over southern China by the NCEP climate forecast system[J].Theor Appl Climatol,2015,122(3-4):743-754.
[42]EK M B,MITCHELL K E,LIN Y,et al.Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model[J].J Geophys Res,2003,108(D22):8851,doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
[43]GRIFFIES S M,HARRISON M J,PACANOWSKY R C,et al.A technical guide to MOM4 GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report 5[J].NOAA/GFDL:Princeton,NJ,USA,2003:295.
[44]ZHANG Tuan-tuan,YANG Song,JIANG Xing-wen,et al.Sub-seasonal prediction of the maritime continent rainfall of wet-dry transitional seasons in the NCEP climate forecast version 2[J].Atmosphere,2016,7(2):28.
[45]ADLER R F,HUFFMAN G J,CHANG A,et al.The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-present)[J].J.Hydrometeor,2003,4(6):1147-1167.
[46]DEE D P,UPPALA S M,SIMMONS A J,et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,2011,137(656):553-597.
[47]KALNAY E,KANAMITSU M,KISTLER R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[48]YUAN Xu.Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Autumn Persistent Rainfall Over the Western China and Its Interannual Variation[D].Nanjing Univ Info Sci Technol,2013(in Chinese).
[49]XU Gui-yu,LIN Chun-yu.Survey on the causes and features of autumn rain in western China[J].Sci Meteor Sinica,1994,14(2):149-154(in Chinese).
[50]YANG Song,LAUI K M,KIM K M.Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies[J].J Climate,2002,15(3):306-325.
[51]YEH Tu-cheng,DAO Shih-yen,LI Mei-tsiun.The abrupt change of circulation over northern hemisphere during June and October[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,1958,29(4):249-263(in Chinese).
[52]CHEN Shao-yong,XIA Quan,GUO Jun-tin,et al.Relationship analysis between September precipitation in western China and 700 h Pa wind field in East Asia[J].Sci Cold Arid Reg,2011,3(5):419-425.
[53]ZHANG Nan,WANG Xiao,CHENG Jia-he.Study of transport and budget of water vapor resources in central China[J].Meteor Environ Sci,2011,34(2):25-30(in Chinese).
[2]BAI Hu-zhi,DONG Wen-jie.Climate features and formation causes of autumn rain over southwest China[J].Plateau Meteor,2004,23(6):884-889(in Chinese).
[3]YUAN Xu,LIU Xuan-fei.Onset-withdrawal dates of autumn persistent rains over western China and the associated autumn to winter evolution of the atmospheric circulation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,2013,71(5):913-924(in Chinese).
[4]KAO Yu-shie,KUO Chi-yun.On the autumn raining area in China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,1958,29(4):264-273(in Chinese).
[5]LIANG Jian-hong.The regional and seasonal distribution of autumn rain in west China[J].Sci Geogra Sinica,1989,9(1):51-59(in Chinese).
[6]WANG Zun-ya,DING Yi-hui.Climatic characteristics of rainy seasons in China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,2008,32(1):1-13(in Chinese).
[7]YU Ya-xun,WANG Shi-gong,QIAN Zheng-an,et al.Climatic linkages between SHWP position and EASMrainy-belts and-areas in east part of China in summer half year[J].Plateau Meteor,2013,32(5):1510-1525(in Chinese).
[8]BAO Yuan-yuan,ABULIMITI L F,WANG X W.Space-time distribution and physical mechanisms of autumn rains in west China in 2001[J].J Appl Meteor,2003,14(2):215-222(in Chinese).
[9]CAI Xiang-ning,KANG Zhi-ming,NIU Ruo-yun,et al.Analysis of features and physical mechanisms of 2011autumn rainfall in west China[J].Mon Meteor,2012,38(7):828-833(in Chinese).
[10]LI Ying,LI Wei-jing,AI Wan-xiu,et al.Analysis of autumn rainfall characteristics and its causes in west China in 2011[J].Adv Met S&T,2012,2(3):27-33(in Chinese).
[11]LIU Yan-ju,SUN Leng,SUN Cheng-hu,et al.Analysis of anomalies of autumn rain in west China in 2011[J].Mon Meteor,2012,38(4):456-463(in Chinese).
[12]WANG Chun-xue,MA Zhen-feng,ZHANG Shun-qian,et al.Establish and analysis of the daily monitoring index for Huaxi autumn rain[J].Mon Meteor,2014,40(8):957-964(in Chinese).
[13]HUANG Yan,ZHANG Ren-he,GONG Zhi-qiang,et al.An objectively quantitative division for rainy seasons in China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,2014,72(6):1186-1204(in Chinese).
[14]REN Bing-tan,LI Hui-ying.A preliminary approach to rainy autumns over West China in recent 2000 years[J].Mon Meteor,1987,13(9):21-24(in Chinese).
[15]JIANG Zhu-jiang,MA Zhen-feng,LIU Jia,et al.Improved index and climatological characteristics of the autumn rain in western China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,2014,38(1):32-44(in Chinese).
[16]WANG Chun-xue,MA Zhen-feng,WANG Jia-jin,et al.The characteristics of Huaxi autumn rain and its relationship with sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,2015,39(3):643-652(in Chinese).
[17]XU Kang,ZHU Cong-wen,WANG Wei-qiang.The cooperative impacts of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the interannual variability of autumn rainfall in China[J].Int J Climatol,2016,36(4):1987-1999.
[18]FENG Li-wen,GUO Qi-yun.The fluctuation of autumn rain in southwest China[J].Geogra Res,1983,2(1):74-84(in Chinese).
[19]ZHAO Shan-shan,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Yu,et al.Change in autumn precipitation in Weihe and Hanshui river basins[J].Adv Climate Change Res,2006,2(4):181-183(in Chinese).
[20]XUE Chun-fang,HOU Wei,ZHAO Jun-hu,et al.The application of ensemble empirical mode decomposition method in multiscale analysis of region precipitation and its response to the climate change[J].Acta Phys Sin,2013,62(10):504-511(in Chinese).
[21]XUE Chun-fang,DONG Wen-jie,LI Qing,et al.Climate characteristic and formative cause of autumn rain in Weihe river basin in recent 50 years[J].Plateau Meteor,2012,31(2):409-417(in Chinese).
[22]LUO Xiao,LI Dong-liang,WANG Hui.New evolution features of autumn rainfall in west China and its responses to atmospheric circulation[J].Plateau Meteor,2013,32(4):1019-1031(in Chinese).
[23]WANG Chun-xue,MA Zhen-feng,SHAO Peng-cheng,et al.Climate variation of Huaxi autumn rain and the impact factors influencing it[J].Arid Zone Res,2015,32(6):1113-1121(in Chinese).
[24]CHEN Zhong-ming,LIU Fu-ming,ZHAO Ping,et al.Relationship between the surface heating fields over Qinghai Xizang Plateau and precipitation of southwest China in autumn[J].Plateau Meteor,2001,20(1):94-99(in Chinese).
[25]AI Kai,ZHENG Yi-qun,ZENG Xin-min,et al.Effect of different cloud microphysical parameterization schemes of WFR model on autumn precipitation over west China[J].JMeteor Environ,2016,32(2):1-10(in Chinese).
[26]SHAO Jian,DING Yong-hong,ZHAO Guang-ping,et al.Diagnosis and analysis of anomaly of constantly rainy weather over Ningxia province during autumn in 2007[J].J Shananxi Meteor,2009,(1):18-22(in Chinese).
[27]HE Min.Long-range forecast and distribution of autumn rain area in China[J].Mon Meteor,1984,(9):10-13(in Chinese).
[28]LIU Jia,XU Jin-xia,MA Zhen-feng,et al.Evaluation of flood season prediction in southwest region by the Second-Generation Monthly Dynamic Extended-Range Forecast[J].Plateau Meteor,2014,33(6):1468-1479(in Chinese).
[29]PAN Liu-jie,ZHANG Hong-fang,YUAN Yuan,et al.Verification of precipitation forecasting for autumn continuous rainfall by T639 refined grid model in Shaanxi province[J].J Meteor Envi,2015,31(6):9-17(in Chinese).
[30]SAHA S,NADIGA S,THIAW C,et al.The NCEP climate forecast system[J].J Climate,2006,19(15):3483-3517,doi:10.1175/JCLI3812.1.
[31]SAHA S,MOORTHI S,PAN H L,et al.The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2010,91(8):1015-1057.
[32]GAO Hui,YANG Song,KUMAR A,et al.Variations of the East Asian Mei-Yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP climate forecast system[J].J Climate,2011,24(1):94-108.
[33]YANG Song,ZHANG Zu-qiang,KOUSKY V E,et al.Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system[J].J Climate,2008,21(15):3755-3775.
[34]LI Yue-qing,YANG Song.A dynamical index for the east Asian winter monsoon[J].J Climate,2010,23(15):4255-4262.
[35]ZUO Zhi-yan,YANG Song,HU Zeng-Zhen,et al.Predictable patterns and predictive skills of monsoon precipitation in northern hemisphere summer in NCEPCFSv2 reforecasts[J].Climate Dyn,2013,40(11-12):3071-3088.
[36]KIM Hye-Mi,WEBSTER P J,CURRY J A.Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF system 4 and NCEP CFSv2retrospective forecast for the northern hemisphere winter[J].Climate Dyn,2012,39(12):2957-2973.
[37]JIANG Xing-wen,YANG Song,LI Yue-qing,et al.Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version2[J].J Climate,2013,26(11):3708-3727.
[38]WANG Wan-qiu,HUNG Meng-Pai,WEAVER SCOTT J,et al.MJO prediction in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J].Climate Dyn,2014,42(9-10):2509-2520.
[39]GAO Zong-ting,HU Zeng-Zhen,BHASKAR J,et al.Variability and predictability of northeast China climate during 1948-2012[J].Climate Dyn,2014,43(3-4):787-804.
[40]ZHAO Si-yu,YANG Song.Dynamical prediction of the early season rainfall over southern China by the NCEPclimate forecast system[J].Wea Forecasting,2014,29(6):1391-1401.
[41]ZHAO Si-yu,YANG Song,DENG Yi,et al.Skills of yearly prediction of the early-season rainfall over southern China by the NCEP climate forecast system[J].Theor Appl Climatol,2015,122(3-4):743-754.
[42]EK M B,MITCHELL K E,LIN Y,et al.Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model[J].J Geophys Res,2003,108(D22):8851,doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
[43]GRIFFIES S M,HARRISON M J,PACANOWSKY R C,et al.A technical guide to MOM4 GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report 5[J].NOAA/GFDL:Princeton,NJ,USA,2003:295.
[44]ZHANG Tuan-tuan,YANG Song,JIANG Xing-wen,et al.Sub-seasonal prediction of the maritime continent rainfall of wet-dry transitional seasons in the NCEP climate forecast version 2[J].Atmosphere,2016,7(2):28.
[45]ADLER R F,HUFFMAN G J,CHANG A,et al.The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-present)[J].J.Hydrometeor,2003,4(6):1147-1167.
[46]DEE D P,UPPALA S M,SIMMONS A J,et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,2011,137(656):553-597.
[47]KALNAY E,KANAMITSU M,KISTLER R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[48]YUAN Xu.Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Autumn Persistent Rainfall Over the Western China and Its Interannual Variation[D].Nanjing Univ Info Sci Technol,2013(in Chinese).
[49]XU Gui-yu,LIN Chun-yu.Survey on the causes and features of autumn rain in western China[J].Sci Meteor Sinica,1994,14(2):149-154(in Chinese).
[50]YANG Song,LAUI K M,KIM K M.Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies[J].J Climate,2002,15(3):306-325.
[51]YEH Tu-cheng,DAO Shih-yen,LI Mei-tsiun.The abrupt change of circulation over northern hemisphere during June and October[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,1958,29(4):249-263(in Chinese).
[52]CHEN Shao-yong,XIA Quan,GUO Jun-tin,et al.Relationship analysis between September precipitation in western China and 700 h Pa wind field in East Asia[J].Sci Cold Arid Reg,2011,3(5):419-425.
[53]ZHANG Nan,WANG Xiao,CHENG Jia-he.Study of transport and budget of water vapor resources in central China[J].Meteor Environ Sci,2011,34(2):25-30(in Chinese).