5月份气候变化对宝鸡地区冬小麦产量的影响分析
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摘要
气候变化常常会导致小麦产量波动,5月份为冬小麦生育的关键期,该时段气候变化对冬小麦产量影响较为显著。为了促进冬小麦产量的提升,利用宝鸡地区2000—2015年每年5月份的气温、降水、日照等气候数据,与宝鸡地区冬小麦单位面积产量进行相关分析。结果显示:宝鸡地区冬小麦5月生育的适宜生长的气温为20℃左右;冬小麦单产与5月降水量之间存在着负相关的关系,但降水量减少所带来的冬小麦增产并不是无限的;冬小麦单产与5月日照累计时长没有明显的线性相关,但产量会随光照时长逐渐增多,充足的光照对于冬小麦5月生育有重要的意义。
Climate change often leads to the fluctuation of wheat production, and May is the key period of winter wheat growth, the climate change during this period has significant impact on winter wheat yield. To promote the yield of winter wheat, the correlation between climate data such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine in May of each year from 2000 to 2015 and winter wheat yield in Baoji were analyzed. The results showed that the suitable temperature for winter wheat growing in May in Baoji area was about 20℃; there was a negative correlation between the yield of winter wheat and the precipitation in May, but the increase of winter wheat yield caused by the decrease of precipitation was not unlimited; there was no obvious linear correlation between the yield of winter wheat and the cumulative duration of sunshine in May, but the yield would increase gradually with the duration of light, and sufficient light was significant for winter wheat growth in May.
Climate change often leads to the fluctuation of wheat production, and May is the key period of winter wheat growth, the climate change during this period has significant impact on winter wheat yield. To promote the yield of winter wheat, the correlation between climate data such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine in May of each year from 2000 to 2015 and winter wheat yield in Baoji were analyzed. The results showed that the suitable temperature for winter wheat growing in May in Baoji area was about 20℃; there was a negative correlation between the yield of winter wheat and the precipitation in May, but the increase of winter wheat yield caused by the decrease of precipitation was not unlimited; there was no obvious linear correlation between the yield of winter wheat and the cumulative duration of sunshine in May, but the yield would increase gradually with the duration of light, and sufficient light was significant for winter wheat growth in May.
引文
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[22]白家惠,张文松,汪可可,等.气象因子对平顶山市小麦生产的影响[J].现代农业科技,2009,11(3):203-204.
[23]杨淑巧,许琦,刘跃鹏,等.冬小麦光合作用和叶绿素荧光特性的研究[J].农学学报,2015,5(3):5-10.
[24]张永红,葛徽衍.关中冬小麦发育期降水量突变及其影响[J].陕西农业科学,2011,57(2):7-10.
[25]史华伟,孙黛珍,王曙光,等.小麦功能叶对籽粒灌浆影响的研究[J].农学学报,2017,7(5):1-5.
[26]何中虎,庄巧生,程顺和,等.中国小麦产业发展与科技进步[J].农学学报,2018,8(1):99-106.
[2]Kimball B A.Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield:An assemblage and analysis of prior observations[J].J Agron,1983,75:779-788.
[3]Adcock B,Adcock M C.Modeling approaches for predicting crop ecosystem responses to climate change[J].Crop Science Society of America,1993:306.
[4]Xiong W,Conway D,Lin E,et al.Future cereal production in China:the interaction of climate change,water availability and socioeconomic scenarios[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(1):34-44.
[5]刘娇,刘举,苏瑞光,等.河南省小麦玉米生产现状、问题与对策[J].农学学报,2015,5(1):5-9.
[6]王秀芳,于丽洁,刘菁菁.气象因子对小麦生育后期影响分析[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(1):400,593.
[7]Lobell D B,Schlenker W S,Costa-Roberts J.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J].Science.2011,333:616-620.
[8]杨绚,汤绪,陈葆德,等.利用CMIP5多模式集合模拟气候变化对中国小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(15):3009-3024.
[9]田展,Gunter F.近50年气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(9):61-69.
[10]胡玮,严昌荣,李迎春,等.气候变化对华北冬小麦生育期和灌溉需水量的影响[J].生态学报,2014,34(9):2367-2377.
[11]葛徽衍,张永红.陕西关中秋季气候变化对秋粮生产影响研究[J].陕西农业科学,2012,58(3):77-78,81.
[12]何可杰,庞翻,杨婷婷,等.宝鸡粮食作物产量与气候条件分析[J].陕西农业科学,2015,61(3):67-69,84.
[13]宋佃星,马莉.宝鸡市气候变化及其对小麦产量的影响[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(19):147-151.
[14]赵亚伟,万红莲,石岩,等.基于核密度的宝鸡地名文化特征与时空分布研究[J].宝鸡文理学院学报:自然科学版,2017,37(2):74-78.
[15]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[16]万红莲,周旗,樊维翰,等.公元600-2000年宝鸡地区洪涝灾害发生规律[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):697-704.
[17]陕西省统计局,国家统计局陕西调查总队.陕西省统计年鉴(2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[18]中国气家数据共学服务网[EB/OL].http:/odc.cma.gov.cn/home.Do2016-10-31/2018-02-11.
[19]邓国伦.农业气象预报与情报[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:101-172.
[20]王秀芳,于丽洁,刘菁菁.小麦生育后期气象因子与产量的相关性分析[J].现代农业科技,2011,4(19):302-303.
[21]费淑玲,赵玉风,赵永敢,等.影响淮北小麦后期生育的气象因子分析[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(10):49,52.
[22]白家惠,张文松,汪可可,等.气象因子对平顶山市小麦生产的影响[J].现代农业科技,2009,11(3):203-204.
[23]杨淑巧,许琦,刘跃鹏,等.冬小麦光合作用和叶绿素荧光特性的研究[J].农学学报,2015,5(3):5-10.
[24]张永红,葛徽衍.关中冬小麦发育期降水量突变及其影响[J].陕西农业科学,2011,57(2):7-10.
[25]史华伟,孙黛珍,王曙光,等.小麦功能叶对籽粒灌浆影响的研究[J].农学学报,2017,7(5):1-5.
[26]何中虎,庄巧生,程顺和,等.中国小麦产业发展与科技进步[J].农学学报,2018,8(1):99-106.