Effect of Climate Change on Yield of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu Province
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摘要
The spike-grain structure and yield data of winter wheat observed at 10 winter wheat observation stations in Jiangsu agrometeorological observation stations in the China Meteorological Observation Network were used to design the assessment model and evaluation criteria of the effects of climate change on spikegrain structure and yield of winter wheat. The linear regression method was used to determine the parameters of the assessment model,and the climate fact extrapolation method was used to determine future climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on spike-grain structure and yield of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province were calculated and analyzed finally. The results showed that with the climate change,the meteorological conditions during the growth and development of winter wheat changed,which caused the number of effective spikes to decrease,and the number of grains per spike and thousand-grain weight to increase,and this new type of spike-grain structure combination was beneficial to the increase of the unit yield of winter wheat. The variations of meteorological elements caused by climate change during winter wheat growth and development had different effects on spike-grain structure at different growth stages. The spike-grain structure had an "increasing-decreasing" periodic variation with the growth period overall,with a period of one to three stages. The relationship between winter wheat growth and development and meteorological conditions can be adjusted in real time through stress-resistant cultivation techniques to achieve the high-yield and high-quality cultivation target of winter wheat production.
The spike-grain structure and yield data of winter wheat observed at 10 winter wheat observation stations in Jiangsu agrometeorological observation stations in the China Meteorological Observation Network were used to design the assessment model and evaluation criteria of the effects of climate change on spikegrain structure and yield of winter wheat. The linear regression method was used to determine the parameters of the assessment model,and the climate fact extrapolation method was used to determine future climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on spike-grain structure and yield of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province were calculated and analyzed finally. The results showed that with the climate change,the meteorological conditions during the growth and development of winter wheat changed,which caused the number of effective spikes to decrease,and the number of grains per spike and thousand-grain weight to increase,and this new type of spike-grain structure combination was beneficial to the increase of the unit yield of winter wheat. The variations of meteorological elements caused by climate change during winter wheat growth and development had different effects on spike-grain structure at different growth stages. The spike-grain structure had an "increasing-decreasing" periodic variation with the growth period overall,with a period of one to three stages. The relationship between winter wheat growth and development and meteorological conditions can be adjusted in real time through stress-resistant cultivation techniques to achieve the high-yield and high-quality cultivation target of winter wheat production.
The spike-grain structure and yield data of winter wheat observed at 10 winter wheat observation stations in Jiangsu agrometeorological observation stations in the China Meteorological Observation Network were used to design the assessment model and evaluation criteria of the effects of climate change on spikegrain structure and yield of winter wheat. The linear regression method was used to determine the parameters of the assessment model,and the climate fact extrapolation method was used to determine future climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on spike-grain structure and yield of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province were calculated and analyzed finally. The results showed that with the climate change,the meteorological conditions during the growth and development of winter wheat changed,which caused the number of effective spikes to decrease,and the number of grains per spike and thousand-grain weight to increase,and this new type of spike-grain structure combination was beneficial to the increase of the unit yield of winter wheat. The variations of meteorological elements caused by climate change during winter wheat growth and development had different effects on spike-grain structure at different growth stages. The spike-grain structure had an "increasing-decreasing" periodic variation with the growth period overall,with a period of one to three stages. The relationship between winter wheat growth and development and meteorological conditions can be adjusted in real time through stress-resistant cultivation techniques to achieve the high-yield and high-quality cultivation target of winter wheat production.
引文
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[26]ZHAOTANG SHANG,LANG HE,MENGSEN LIU,ZHIGANG LU,LIN CHENG.Effect of climate change on cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence degree[J].Agricultural Science&Technology,2012,13(4):784-788,887.
[27]China Meteorological Administration.Agricultural meteorological yield forecast business quality evaluation methods(trial)[Z].Beijing,2012,8.
[28]ZHENG JM,LI P,LIAO XH,et al.Preliminary study on yield component factors of Sichuan winter wheat[J].Crops,2012,1:105-108.
[29]SHANG ZT,HE L,SHANG S,et al.Analysed the climate characteristic during winter wheat seasons in Jiangsu province[J].Jiangsu agricultural sciences,2015,43(3):56-62-doi:10-15889/j-issn-1002-1302.2015.03.018.
[2]PIAO S,CIAIS P,HUANG Y,et al.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J].Nature,2010,467(2):43-51.
[3]LOBELL DB,SCHLENKER W,COSTA-ROBERTS J.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J].Science,2011,333(6042):616-620.
[4]ASSENG S,FOSTER IAN,TURNER NC.The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields[J].Global Change Biology,2011,17(2):997-1012.
[5]GUO L,ANDREAS WILKES,YU HY,et al.Analysis of factors influencing yield variability of major crops in China[J].Plant Diversity and Resources,2013,35(4):513-521.
[6]PRASAD PVV,PISIPATI SR,RISTIC Z,et al.Impact of nighttime temperature on physiology and growth of spring wheat[J].Crop Science,2008,48(6):2372-2380.
[7]WANG HL,GAN YT,WANG RY,et al.Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in northwest China[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2008,148:1242-1251.
[8]TIAN Y,CHEN J,CHEN C,et al.Wanning impacts on winter wheat phenophase and grain yield under field conditions in Yangtze Delta Plain,China[J].Field Crops Research,2012,134:193-199.
[9]QUAN C,JING YS,TAN KY.Progress in research of impacts of climate change on yield of three major grain crops[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(32):361-367.
[10]CHANG HL,LAN F.Winter wheat yield potentials and yield gaps in the North China Plain.Field Crops Research,2013,143:98-105.
[11]GENG T,FU W,CHEN Q,et al.Spatial-temporal feature of climate resources and adaptation of winter wheat during last 20 years in Henan Province[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,3(4):652-661.
[12]WANG JY,YE W,LIM H,et al.Variations of winter wheat growth stages under climate changes in Shandong Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(14):161-166.
[13]LI YJ,LING H,WANG PJ.Effects of climate warming on the planting boundary and developmental stages of winter wheat[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(2):382-388.
[14]JING YG,FAN JZ,GAO MS.Influences of the climate warming on developmental stages of winter wheat in Shaanxi[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(2):389-396.
[15]WANG HR,LI ED,HAN X,et al.Influence of climate change on sowing date of different cultivars winter wheat in North China[J].Journal of Anhui Agri,2013,41(8):3530-3532,3654.
[16]LI KN,YANG XG,MU CY,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China VIII---The effects of climate change on planting boundaries of different winter-spring varieties of winter wheat in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013,46(8):1583-1594.
[17]GAO HM,ZHANG ZB,XU P,et al.Changes of winter wheat growth period and yield in northern China from 2001-2009[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013,46(11):2201-2210.
[18]LI HM,JING YS,GAO MS.Characteristics of heat resources in winter wheat growing seasons and its impacts in Guanzhong area over last 40years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,28(5):140-144.
[19]JULIA WILCOX,DAVID MAKOWSKI.A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies[J].Field Crops Research,2014,156:180-190.
[20]TOBIAS JOHNEN,ULF BOETTCHER,HENNING KAGE.An analysis of factors determining spatial variable grain yield of winter wheat[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2014,52:297-306.
[21]WHEAT ASMHM TALUKDER,GLENN K MCDONALD,GURJEETS GILL.Effect of short-term heat stress prior to flowering and early grain seton the grain yield of wheat[J].Field Crops Research 2014,160:54-63.
[22]MIRJAM RO¨DER,PATRICIA THORNLEY,GRANT CAMPBELL,et al.Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand:A case study of UK production under climate change constraints[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2014,39:13-24.
[23]NEMAT A NOURELDIN,HS SAUDY,F ASHMAWY,et al.Grain yield response index of bread wheat cultivars as influenced by nitrogen levels[J].Annals of Agricultural Science,2014,58(2):147-152.
[24]SHANG Z T,J D,HE LANG.The research development about influence of climatic change on wheat production[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(21):6-11.
[25]China Meteorological Administration.Specifications of agrometeorological observation(Volume)[M].China Meteorological Press,1993.
[26]ZHAOTANG SHANG,LANG HE,MENGSEN LIU,ZHIGANG LU,LIN CHENG.Effect of climate change on cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence degree[J].Agricultural Science&Technology,2012,13(4):784-788,887.
[27]China Meteorological Administration.Agricultural meteorological yield forecast business quality evaluation methods(trial)[Z].Beijing,2012,8.
[28]ZHENG JM,LI P,LIAO XH,et al.Preliminary study on yield component factors of Sichuan winter wheat[J].Crops,2012,1:105-108.
[29]SHANG ZT,HE L,SHANG S,et al.Analysed the climate characteristic during winter wheat seasons in Jiangsu province[J].Jiangsu agricultural sciences,2015,43(3):56-62-doi:10-15889/j-issn-1002-1302.2015.03.018.
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