基于Gutenberg-Richter定律快速估算最大余震震级:以2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震为例
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摘要
针对九寨沟M_S7.0地震之后不同时间段的余震序列目录,利用推定最大余震震级,给出了实际最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,推定最大余震震级随主震后时间尺度的延长而趋于稳定,且该值与实际发生的最大余震的震级一致。需要强调的是,就九寨沟地震序列而言,当余震数据较为完备时,采用主震后较短时间段内(1~2天)的余震目录就可以较准确地估算出主震区域内可能发生的最大余震震级。实际上,主震后12h(0.5天)的余震数据已完全可以给出最大余震震级的有效下限。此外,计算中我们采用了里氏震级ML和面波震级M_S的余震目录,结果显示,2种震级类型目录的估算结果完全一致,表明利用推定最大余震震级估算实际最大余震震级的方法不受震级类型的影响。据此,该最大余震震级快速评估方法可进一步推广应用于我国大陆地区中强震后强余震灾害分析评估中。目前的拟合技术也显示出随着测震技术的不断进步以及余震识别能力的提高,快速评估方法可以在主震后短时间(<1天)内准确地预测可能发生的最大余震震级。
Using the equation for magnitude of the inferred largest aftershock proposed by Shcherbakov and Turcotte( 2004),we estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershock following the Jiuzhaigu earthquake from catalogues with different time intervals after the mainshock. The results show that the estimation trends to be a certain value when time intervals become larger and this value is consistent with the magnitude of the real largest aftershock. It should be emphasized that if the aftershock data are relatively complete,using the data in short time intervals after the mainshock( 1 day or 2 days) can give an accurate estimation of magnitude of the largest aftershock of the Jiuzhaigu earthquake catalogue. In fact,estimations with different time intervals after the mainshock also indicate that using the aftershock data measured 12 hours( 0.5 days) after mainshock can give a rational lower bound of magnitude of the largest aftershock. Moreover,we use two types of aftershock catalogues following the Jiuzhaigu earthquake with Richter magnitude( M_L)and surface-wave magnitude( M_S). And the corresponding results show that the two different catalogues give consistent results which indicates that magnitude of the inferred largest aftershock doesn't depend on types of magnitude chosen for catalogues. Therefore,the method we proposed can be generalized and applied to seismic hazard analysis in southwesten China. Current fitting method also implies that with the help of advance in earthquake detection and aftershocks identification,the method we proposed can accurately predict the magnitude of the largest aftershock in a short time after mainshock. In a word,although we can't predict precisely when and where the largest aftershock will occur,the method we proposed can provide rational magnitude estimation for the largest aftershock in a short period after the mainshock.
Using the equation for magnitude of the inferred largest aftershock proposed by Shcherbakov and Turcotte( 2004),we estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershock following the Jiuzhaigu earthquake from catalogues with different time intervals after the mainshock. The results show that the estimation trends to be a certain value when time intervals become larger and this value is consistent with the magnitude of the real largest aftershock. It should be emphasized that if the aftershock data are relatively complete,using the data in short time intervals after the mainshock( 1 day or 2 days) can give an accurate estimation of magnitude of the largest aftershock of the Jiuzhaigu earthquake catalogue. In fact,estimations with different time intervals after the mainshock also indicate that using the aftershock data measured 12 hours( 0.5 days) after mainshock can give a rational lower bound of magnitude of the largest aftershock. Moreover,we use two types of aftershock catalogues following the Jiuzhaigu earthquake with Richter magnitude( M_L)and surface-wave magnitude( M_S). And the corresponding results show that the two different catalogues give consistent results which indicates that magnitude of the inferred largest aftershock doesn't depend on types of magnitude chosen for catalogues. Therefore,the method we proposed can be generalized and applied to seismic hazard analysis in southwesten China. Current fitting method also implies that with the help of advance in earthquake detection and aftershocks identification,the method we proposed can accurately predict the magnitude of the largest aftershock in a short time after mainshock. In a word,although we can't predict precisely when and where the largest aftershock will occur,the method we proposed can provide rational magnitude estimation for the largest aftershock in a short period after the mainshock.
引文
付虹、邬成栋,2008,川滇地区M≥7地震早期衰减特征与汶川8.0级地震强余震预测,地震研究,31(增刊Ⅰ),430~435。
国家地震局科技监测司,1990,地震学分析预报方法程式指南,23~25,北京:地震出版社。
蒋长胜、吴忠良、韩立波等,2013,地震序列早期参数估计和余震概率预测中截止震级Mc的影响:以2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震为例,地球物理学报,56(12),4048~4057。
蒋海昆,2010,5·12汶川8.0级地震序列震后早期趋势判定及有关问题讨论,地球物理学进展,25(5),1528~1538。
刘正荣,1995,b值特征的研究,地震研究,18(2),168~173。
毛春长,1989,利用b值截距法估计强余震震级,山西地震,(3),41~43。
米琦、申文豪、史保平,2015,基于经验模型和物理模型研究2013 MS7.0芦山地震余震序列,地球物理学报,58(6),1919~1930。
钱晓东、秦嘉政,2008,用b值截距估算汶川8.0级地震序列最大余震,地震研究,31(增刊Ⅰ),436~441。
苏有锦、李中华、赵小艳等,2014,全球7级以上地震序列研究,昆明:云南大学出版社。
苏有锦、赵小艳,2008,全球8级地震序列特征研究,地震研究,31(4),308~316。
吴开统、焦远碧、王志东,1984,华北地区的晚期强余震特征,西北地震学报,6(2),3~43。
张智、吴开统、焦远碧等,1989,用b值横截距预报强余震震级的方法探讨,中国地震,5(4),59~69。
Bth M,1965,Lateral inhomogeneities of upper mantle,Tectonophysics,2(6),483~514.
Console R,Lombardi A M,Murru M,et al,2003,Bath's law and self-similarity of earthquakes,J Geophys Res,108(B2),1~23.
Enescu B,Ito K,2002,Spatial analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity of the 2000Western Tottori earthquake,Earth Planets and Space,54(8),847~859.
Hamdache M,Pelaez J A,Kijko A,et al,2017,Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria-Morocco region,Natural Hazards,86,S273~S293.
Helmstetter A,Sornette D,2003,Bath's law derived from the Gutenberg-Richter law and from aftershock properties,Geophys Res Lett,30(20),1~4.
Kisslinger C,Jones L M,1991,Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California,J Geophys Res-Solid Earth and Planets,96(B7),11947~11958.
Marzocchi W,Sandri L,2003,A review and new insights on the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty,Ann Geophys,46(6),1271~1282.
Mignan A,Woessner J,2012,Estimating the magnitude of completeness for earthquake catalogs,Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis,1~45.
Rodríguez-Pérez Q,Zú1iga F R,2016,Bath's law and its relation to the tectonic environment:A case study for earthquakes in Mexico,Tectonophysics,687,66~77.
Sandri L,Marzocchi W,2007,A technical note on the bias in the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty through the Least Squares technique,Ann Geophys,50(3),329~339.
Shcherbakov R,Goda K,Ivanian A,et al,2013,Aftershock statistics of major subduction earthquakes,Bull Seism Soc Am,103(6),3222~3234.
Shcherbakov R,Turcotte D L,2004,A modified form of Bath's law,Bull Seism Soc Am,94(5),1968~1975.
Shcherbakov R,Turcotte D L,Rundle J B,2005,Aftershock statistics,Pure Appl Geophys,162(6-7),1051~1076.
Shearer P M,2012,Self-similar earthquake triggering,Bath's law,and foreshock/aftershock magnitudes:Simulations,theory,and results for southern California,J Geophys Res,117,1~15.
Tahir M,Grasso J R,Amorese D,2012,The largest aftershock:How strong,how far away,how delayed?Geophys Res Lett,39,1~5.
Taylor J,1997,Introduction to error analysis:the study of uncertainties in physical measurements,45~110,Sausalito:University Science Books.
Wang J H,Chen K C,Leu P L,et al,2015,b-Values Observations in Taiwan:A Review,Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,26(5),475~492.
Woessner J,Wiemer S,2005,Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty,Bull Seism Soc Am,95(2),684~698.
Zalohar J,2014,Explaining the physical origin of Bath's law,Journal of Structural Geology,60,30~45.
国家地震局科技监测司,1990,地震学分析预报方法程式指南,23~25,北京:地震出版社。
蒋长胜、吴忠良、韩立波等,2013,地震序列早期参数估计和余震概率预测中截止震级Mc的影响:以2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震为例,地球物理学报,56(12),4048~4057。
蒋海昆,2010,5·12汶川8.0级地震序列震后早期趋势判定及有关问题讨论,地球物理学进展,25(5),1528~1538。
刘正荣,1995,b值特征的研究,地震研究,18(2),168~173。
毛春长,1989,利用b值截距法估计强余震震级,山西地震,(3),41~43。
米琦、申文豪、史保平,2015,基于经验模型和物理模型研究2013 MS7.0芦山地震余震序列,地球物理学报,58(6),1919~1930。
钱晓东、秦嘉政,2008,用b值截距估算汶川8.0级地震序列最大余震,地震研究,31(增刊Ⅰ),436~441。
苏有锦、李中华、赵小艳等,2014,全球7级以上地震序列研究,昆明:云南大学出版社。
苏有锦、赵小艳,2008,全球8级地震序列特征研究,地震研究,31(4),308~316。
吴开统、焦远碧、王志东,1984,华北地区的晚期强余震特征,西北地震学报,6(2),3~43。
张智、吴开统、焦远碧等,1989,用b值横截距预报强余震震级的方法探讨,中国地震,5(4),59~69。
Bth M,1965,Lateral inhomogeneities of upper mantle,Tectonophysics,2(6),483~514.
Console R,Lombardi A M,Murru M,et al,2003,Bath's law and self-similarity of earthquakes,J Geophys Res,108(B2),1~23.
Enescu B,Ito K,2002,Spatial analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity of the 2000Western Tottori earthquake,Earth Planets and Space,54(8),847~859.
Hamdache M,Pelaez J A,Kijko A,et al,2017,Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria-Morocco region,Natural Hazards,86,S273~S293.
Helmstetter A,Sornette D,2003,Bath's law derived from the Gutenberg-Richter law and from aftershock properties,Geophys Res Lett,30(20),1~4.
Kisslinger C,Jones L M,1991,Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California,J Geophys Res-Solid Earth and Planets,96(B7),11947~11958.
Marzocchi W,Sandri L,2003,A review and new insights on the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty,Ann Geophys,46(6),1271~1282.
Mignan A,Woessner J,2012,Estimating the magnitude of completeness for earthquake catalogs,Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis,1~45.
Rodríguez-Pérez Q,Zú1iga F R,2016,Bath's law and its relation to the tectonic environment:A case study for earthquakes in Mexico,Tectonophysics,687,66~77.
Sandri L,Marzocchi W,2007,A technical note on the bias in the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty through the Least Squares technique,Ann Geophys,50(3),329~339.
Shcherbakov R,Goda K,Ivanian A,et al,2013,Aftershock statistics of major subduction earthquakes,Bull Seism Soc Am,103(6),3222~3234.
Shcherbakov R,Turcotte D L,2004,A modified form of Bath's law,Bull Seism Soc Am,94(5),1968~1975.
Shcherbakov R,Turcotte D L,Rundle J B,2005,Aftershock statistics,Pure Appl Geophys,162(6-7),1051~1076.
Shearer P M,2012,Self-similar earthquake triggering,Bath's law,and foreshock/aftershock magnitudes:Simulations,theory,and results for southern California,J Geophys Res,117,1~15.
Tahir M,Grasso J R,Amorese D,2012,The largest aftershock:How strong,how far away,how delayed?Geophys Res Lett,39,1~5.
Taylor J,1997,Introduction to error analysis:the study of uncertainties in physical measurements,45~110,Sausalito:University Science Books.
Wang J H,Chen K C,Leu P L,et al,2015,b-Values Observations in Taiwan:A Review,Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,26(5),475~492.
Woessner J,Wiemer S,2005,Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty,Bull Seism Soc Am,95(2),684~698.
Zalohar J,2014,Explaining the physical origin of Bath's law,Journal of Structural Geology,60,30~45.
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