1959—2018年大伙房水库流域旱涝急转特征分析
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摘要
基于大伙房水库流域13个雨量站1959—2018年的日降水资料,利用长周期旱涝急转指数(简称LDFAL)、短周期旱涝急转指数(简称SDFAL)和滑动平均法、线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、R/S分析法分析了大伙房水库流域(6—9月)旱涝急转特征、旱涝急转趋势和旱涝急转强度变化及未来趋势。结果表明:长、短周期旱涝急转指数可以很好地反映大伙房水库流域6—9月旱涝急转的特征;流域内长周期旱涝急转现象发生概率降低,短周期6—7月、8—9月由"旱转涝"主导转向"涝转旱"主导;7—8月由"涝转旱"主导转向"旱转涝"为主导;2018年的一定时间内,长周期旱涝急转强度呈下降趋势,短周期6—7月、7—8月的旱涝急转强度呈上升趋势,8—9月呈下降趋势,变化趋势均不显著。
Based on the daily precipitation data from 13 rainfall gauging stations covering 1959—2018 of the Dahuofang Reservoir Basin, this paper takes the Long-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index(short for LDFAL), Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index(short for SDFAL), the sliding average method, the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method and the R/S analysis method to analyze the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation, the trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation and the future trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation intensity in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin(from June to September). The results show that: Long-cycle and Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index can well reflect the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin from June to September. With the increase of time, the occurrence probability of Long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in the basin decreases, and the Short-cycle in June to July and August to September changes from "drought-to-flood" to "flood-to-drought" and in July to August from "flood-to-drought" to "drought-to-flood". During the period after 2018, the intensity of Long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation showed a downward trend, the intensity of Short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation showed a upward trend in June to July and July to August, while that in August to September showed a downward trend, with no significant change trend.
Based on the daily precipitation data from 13 rainfall gauging stations covering 1959—2018 of the Dahuofang Reservoir Basin, this paper takes the Long-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index(short for LDFAL), Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index(short for SDFAL), the sliding average method, the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method and the R/S analysis method to analyze the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation, the trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation and the future trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation intensity in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin(from June to September). The results show that: Long-cycle and Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index can well reflect the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin from June to September. With the increase of time, the occurrence probability of Long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in the basin decreases, and the Short-cycle in June to July and August to September changes from "drought-to-flood" to "flood-to-drought" and in July to August from "flood-to-drought" to "drought-to-flood". During the period after 2018, the intensity of Long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation showed a downward trend, the intensity of Short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation showed a upward trend in June to July and July to August, while that in August to September showed a downward trend, with no significant change trend.
引文
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[3] 孙鹏,刘春玲,张强.东江流域汛期旱涝急转的时空演变特征[J].人民珠江,2012,33(5):29-34.
[4] 方永旭,陈灿,胡铁松.王英水库灌区水旱交替特征分析[J].人民珠江,2016,37(7):37-43.
[5] 何慧,廖雪萍,陆虹,等.华南地区1961—2014 年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J].地理学报,2016,71(1):130-141.
[6] 张屏,汪付华,吴忠连,等.淮北市旱涝急转型气候规律分析[J].水利水电快报,2008,29(S1):139-140,151.
[7] 罗蔚,张翔,邓志民,等.近50年鄱阳湖流域入湖总水量变化与旱涝急转规律分析[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2013,21(5):845-856.
[8] 闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2100-2107.
[9] 吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等.正常季风年华南夏季“旱涝并存、旱涝急转”之气候统计特征[J].自然科学进展,2007,17(12):1665-1671.
[10]邓艳,陈小荣.旱涝急转对水稻生长发育的影响及其有关问题的思考[J].生物灾害科学,2013,36(2):217-222.
[11]法尔科内.分形几何数学基础及其应用[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2007.
[12]王孝礼,胡宝清,夏军.水文时序趋势与变异点的R/S分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2002,35(2):10-12.
[13]冀连华.近30年浑河流域水沙变化趋势分析[J].人民珠江,2018,39(10):89-94.
[14]徐全喜,石国钰,陈泽方.长江上游近期水沙变化特点及其趋势分析[J].水科学进展,2004,15(4):420-426.
[15]燕爱玲,黄强,刘招,等.R/S法的径流时序复杂特性研究[J].应用科学学报,2007,25(2):215-217.
[16]于延胜,陈兴伟.R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文[J].水资源与水工程学报,2008,19(3):41-44.