京津冀农业虚拟水流动及对区域水资源压力影响研究
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摘要
水资源安全问题一直是研究热点,基于生产-消费状况揭示区域虚拟水流动,对了解水资源利用状况和水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。基于虚拟水视角,以灌溉用水和绿水核算区域农业虚拟水生产,以居民膳食消费核算居民虚拟水消费,以两者的差值核算并分析了京津冀地区在生产-消费模式下农业虚拟水流动特征及对区域水资源压力的影响。结果表明:(1)2004-2015年间,河北、天津、北京年均作物生产虚拟水分别为353.1亿m3、22.9亿m3和16.0亿m3,年均畜牧产品生产虚拟水分别为445.3亿m3、47.6亿m3、36.7亿m3;河北、天津作物虚拟水呈现下降趋势但变化趋势不明显,北京作物生产虚拟水呈现出持续性的下降趋势;河北、天津畜牧产品虚拟水均呈现出先增加后减少最后趋于缓慢上升态势,北京畜牧产品虚拟水呈现持续下降趋势。(2)2004-2015年河北、天津和北京年均虚拟水消费分别为243.7亿m3、61.6亿m3和98.3亿m3,虚拟水消费均呈现出上升趋势。(3)河北省为虚拟水输出型,输出量呈明显的下降趋势,北京市和天津市为虚拟水输入型,输入量呈增加趋势。(4)2004-2015年年均水资源压力指数呈现河北>天津>北京,水资源匮乏度呈现为天津>北京>河北,水资源自给率呈现河北>天津>北京,北京和天津对外部虚拟水输入的依赖程度逐渐增加。京津冀水资源面临着严重的短缺问题,水资源超载严重。提高农业用水效率,优化种植结构,引导合理的膳食结构调整,从生产和消费两方面同时入手是解决京津冀水资源问题的关键措施。
The water resources security has always been a research hotspot.It is important to understand the utilization of water resources,as well as the sustainable use of water resources from production to consumption.Based on the perspectives of agriculture virtual water,this paper estimated the regional virtual water production from irrigation water and green water,and resident agriculture virtual water consumption from resident dietary consumption,and explored the flow characteristics of agriculture virtual water and its impacts on regional water resource with the production-consumption mode in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results showed that:(1)During 2004-2015,the average annual production of virtual water was 35.31 billion m3,2.29 billion m3,1.60 billion m3 in Hebei,Tianjin and Beijing,respectively,and the annual average production of virtual water for livestock products was 29.09 billion m3,2.40 billion m3,1.79 billion m3.Hebei and Tianjin's crop virtual water showed a downward trend but the trend was not statistically significant.Beijing's crop production virtual water appeared a downward trend.The virtual water of livestock products in Hebei and Tianjin showed anincreasing trend in the early period,then a decreasing trend,and finally a stable but continuous downward trend in Beijing.(2)During 2004-2015,the average annual virtual water consumption in Hebei,Tianjin and Beijing was 34.37 billion m3,6.16 billion m3,and 9.83 billion m3,respectively.Those virtual water consumption all showed an upward trend.(3)Hebei Province exported virtual water,and its output showed a significant downward trend.Beijing and Tianjin were importers of virtual water,and their importing volumes were increasing.(4)The annual average water stress index presented a Hebei>Tianjin>Beijing pattern,water scarcity index Tianjin>Beijing>Hebei,and water self-sufficiency rate Hebei>Tianjin>Beijing from 2004 to 2015.Beijing and Tianjin increasingly depended on external virtual water inputs.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are facing water shortage problems aswater resources were seriously overexploited.Improving agricultural water use efficiency,optimizing planting structure,and guiding rational dietary structures,and taking both production and consumption into account,are key countermeasures to solve the water problems in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
The water resources security has always been a research hotspot.It is important to understand the utilization of water resources,as well as the sustainable use of water resources from production to consumption.Based on the perspectives of agriculture virtual water,this paper estimated the regional virtual water production from irrigation water and green water,and resident agriculture virtual water consumption from resident dietary consumption,and explored the flow characteristics of agriculture virtual water and its impacts on regional water resource with the production-consumption mode in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results showed that:(1)During 2004-2015,the average annual production of virtual water was 35.31 billion m3,2.29 billion m3,1.60 billion m3 in Hebei,Tianjin and Beijing,respectively,and the annual average production of virtual water for livestock products was 29.09 billion m3,2.40 billion m3,1.79 billion m3.Hebei and Tianjin's crop virtual water showed a downward trend but the trend was not statistically significant.Beijing's crop production virtual water appeared a downward trend.The virtual water of livestock products in Hebei and Tianjin showed anincreasing trend in the early period,then a decreasing trend,and finally a stable but continuous downward trend in Beijing.(2)During 2004-2015,the average annual virtual water consumption in Hebei,Tianjin and Beijing was 34.37 billion m3,6.16 billion m3,and 9.83 billion m3,respectively.Those virtual water consumption all showed an upward trend.(3)Hebei Province exported virtual water,and its output showed a significant downward trend.Beijing and Tianjin were importers of virtual water,and their importing volumes were increasing.(4)The annual average water stress index presented a Hebei>Tianjin>Beijing pattern,water scarcity index Tianjin>Beijing>Hebei,and water self-sufficiency rate Hebei>Tianjin>Beijing from 2004 to 2015.Beijing and Tianjin increasingly depended on external virtual water inputs.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are facing water shortage problems aswater resources were seriously overexploited.Improving agricultural water use efficiency,optimizing planting structure,and guiding rational dietary structures,and taking both production and consumption into account,are key countermeasures to solve the water problems in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
引文
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[11]孙世坤,王玉宝,刘静,等.中国主要粮食作物的生产水足迹量化及评价[J].水利学报,2016,47(9):1115-1124.(SUN S K,WANG Y B,LIU J,et al.Quantification and evaluation of water footprint of major grain crops in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(09):1115-1124.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150956.
[12]王玉宝,吴普特,孙世坤,等.我国粮食虚拟水流动对水资源和区域经济的影响[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(10):208-215.(WANG Y B,WU P T,SUN S K,et al.Impact of virtual water flows of grain on water resources and regional economy in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(10):208-215.(in Chinese))DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2015.10.027.
[13]郭相平,余涛,吴梦洋,等.中国省区虚拟水流动及对农业用水的影响[J].排灌机械工程学报,2018,36(8):744-749.(GUO X P,YU T,WU M Y,et al.Virtual water flow and its impact on agricultural water utilization among provinces of China[J].Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering,2018,36(8):744-749.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.18.1025.
[14]曹涛,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算[J].生态学报,2018,38(3):788-799.(CHEN T,WANG S G,CHEN B.Virtual water analysis for the Jing-Jin-Ji region based on multiregional input-output model[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(3):788-799.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201612122549.
[15]鲍超,贺东梅.京津冀城市群水资源开发利用的时空特征与政策启示[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):58-67.(BAO C,HE D M.Spatiotemporal characteristics of water resources exploitation and policy implications in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration[J].Progress in geography,2017,36(01):58-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.006.
[16]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.(National Bureau of Statistics of the People′s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.(in Chinese))
[17]段爱旺,孙景生,刘钰,等.北方地区主要农作物灌溉用水定额[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2004.(DUAN A W,SUN J S,LIU Y,et al.Irrigation water quota of main crops in northern China[M].Beijing:China Agricultural Science and Technology Press,2004.(in Chinese))
[18] SUN S,WU P,WANG Y,et al.The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,444(2):498.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.016.
[19]曹建廷,李原园,张文胜,等.农畜产品虚拟水研究的背景、方法及意义[J].水科学进展,2004(6):829-834.(CAO J T,LI Y Y,ZHANG W S,et al.Research background,methodological issues and significance on virtual water of crop and livestock production[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,(06):829-834.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2004.06.025.
[20] CASTILLO R M,FENG K,HUBACEK K,et al.Uncovering the Green,blue,and grey water footprint and virtual water of biofuel production in Brazil:A Nexus Perspective[J].Sustainability,2017,9(11):2049.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.11.012.
[21] CHAPAGAIN A K,HOEKSTRA A Y.Water footprints of nations[C]//Value of Water Research Report Series:No.16.Delft,the Netherlands:IHE,2004,1-80.
[22]戚瑞,耿涌,朱庆华.基于水足迹理论的区域水资源利用评价[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):486-495.(QI R,GENG Y,ZHU Q H.Evaluation of regional water resources utilization based on water footprint method[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(3):486-495.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.03.015.
[23]韩宇平,李新生,黄会平,等.京津冀作物水足迹时空分布特征及影响因子分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(4):26-34.(HAN Y P,LI X S,HANG H P,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of water footprint of main crops and its influencing factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2018,16(4):26-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2018.0093.
[2]韩宇平,雷宏军,潘红卫,等.基于虚拟水和广义水资源的区域水资源可持续利用评价[J].水利学报,2011,42(6):729-736.(HAN Y P,LEI H J,PAN H W,et al.Evaluation on water resources sustainable utilization based on virtual water and generalized water resources theory[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(6):729-736.(in Chinese))
[3]吴普特,高学睿,赵西宁,等.实体水-虚拟水“二维三元”耦合流动理论基本框架[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(12):1-10.(WU P T,GAO X R,ZHAO X N,et al.Framework of“two-dimension three-element”coupling flow of real water and virtual water[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(12):1-10.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.12.001.
[4] MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.National water footprint accounts:the green,blue and grey water footprint of production and consumption.Value of Water Research Report Series No.50[R].Delft:UNESCO-IHE.2011.
[5] MEKONNEN M M,HOEKSTRA A Y.A global assessment of the water footprint of farm animal products[J].Ecosystems,2012,15(3):401-415.DOI:10.1007/s10021-011-9517-8.
[6]吴普特,孙世坤,王玉宝,等.作物生产水足迹量化方法与评价研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(6):651-660,669.(Wu P T,Sun S K,Wang B Y,et al.Research on the quantification methods for water footprint of crop production[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(6):651-660+669.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160740.
[7] LIU J,SAVENIJE H H G.Food consumption patterns and their effect on water requirement in China.[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,12,3(2008-06-11),2008,5(1):27-50.DOI:10.5194/hess-12-887-2008.
[8] SCHWARZ J,MATHIJS E,MAERTENS M.Changing Patterns of Global Agri-Food Trade and the Economic Efficiency of Virtual Water Flows[J].Sustainability,2015,7(5):5542-5563.DOI:info:doi/10.3390/su7055542.
[9]黄会平,曹明明,宋进喜,等.河南省农作物虚拟水含量时空分异特征[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(3):167-171,176.(HANG H P,CAO M M,SONG J X,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of crop virtual water in Henan Province Based on GIS[J].Regional Research and Development,2015,34(3):167-171,176.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2015.03.030.
[10] HESS T,ANDERSSON U,MENA C,et al.The impact of healthier dietary scenarios on the global blue water scarcity footprint of food consumption in the UK[J].Food Policy,2015,50:1-10.DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.013.
[11]孙世坤,王玉宝,刘静,等.中国主要粮食作物的生产水足迹量化及评价[J].水利学报,2016,47(9):1115-1124.(SUN S K,WANG Y B,LIU J,et al.Quantification and evaluation of water footprint of major grain crops in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(09):1115-1124.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150956.
[12]王玉宝,吴普特,孙世坤,等.我国粮食虚拟水流动对水资源和区域经济的影响[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(10):208-215.(WANG Y B,WU P T,SUN S K,et al.Impact of virtual water flows of grain on water resources and regional economy in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(10):208-215.(in Chinese))DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2015.10.027.
[13]郭相平,余涛,吴梦洋,等.中国省区虚拟水流动及对农业用水的影响[J].排灌机械工程学报,2018,36(8):744-749.(GUO X P,YU T,WU M Y,et al.Virtual water flow and its impact on agricultural water utilization among provinces of China[J].Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering,2018,36(8):744-749.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.18.1025.
[14]曹涛,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算[J].生态学报,2018,38(3):788-799.(CHEN T,WANG S G,CHEN B.Virtual water analysis for the Jing-Jin-Ji region based on multiregional input-output model[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(3):788-799.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201612122549.
[15]鲍超,贺东梅.京津冀城市群水资源开发利用的时空特征与政策启示[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):58-67.(BAO C,HE D M.Spatiotemporal characteristics of water resources exploitation and policy implications in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration[J].Progress in geography,2017,36(01):58-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.006.
[16]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.(National Bureau of Statistics of the People′s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.(in Chinese))
[17]段爱旺,孙景生,刘钰,等.北方地区主要农作物灌溉用水定额[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2004.(DUAN A W,SUN J S,LIU Y,et al.Irrigation water quota of main crops in northern China[M].Beijing:China Agricultural Science and Technology Press,2004.(in Chinese))
[18] SUN S,WU P,WANG Y,et al.The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,444(2):498.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.016.
[19]曹建廷,李原园,张文胜,等.农畜产品虚拟水研究的背景、方法及意义[J].水科学进展,2004(6):829-834.(CAO J T,LI Y Y,ZHANG W S,et al.Research background,methodological issues and significance on virtual water of crop and livestock production[J].Advances in Water Science,2004,(06):829-834.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2004.06.025.
[20] CASTILLO R M,FENG K,HUBACEK K,et al.Uncovering the Green,blue,and grey water footprint and virtual water of biofuel production in Brazil:A Nexus Perspective[J].Sustainability,2017,9(11):2049.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.11.012.
[21] CHAPAGAIN A K,HOEKSTRA A Y.Water footprints of nations[C]//Value of Water Research Report Series:No.16.Delft,the Netherlands:IHE,2004,1-80.
[22]戚瑞,耿涌,朱庆华.基于水足迹理论的区域水资源利用评价[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):486-495.(QI R,GENG Y,ZHU Q H.Evaluation of regional water resources utilization based on water footprint method[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(3):486-495.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.03.015.
[23]韩宇平,李新生,黄会平,等.京津冀作物水足迹时空分布特征及影响因子分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(4):26-34.(HAN Y P,LI X S,HANG H P,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of water footprint of main crops and its influencing factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2018,16(4):26-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2018.0093.