基于MCI指数的呼伦贝尔市干旱灾害风险区划
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摘要
以呼伦贝尔市16个气象台站1971—2014年逐日气象干旱指数MCI为基础,根据自然灾害风险区划的基础理论,综合土壤、人口、有效灌溉面积等9项社会经济指标,使用层次分析法建立呼伦贝尔市干旱灾害风险区划模型。在模型的基础上借助GIS技术和遥感技术绘制空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的干旱灾害风险区划图。结果表明:大兴安岭以西的呼伦贝尔草原地区的干旱灾害风险普遍较高,阿荣旗、扎兰屯等农业生产旗市也有干旱风险高值区存在,而牙克石、根河等地多林地和山地,干旱风险相对较低。建议在干旱高风险区增加防旱抗旱设施,合理安排和规范农牧业生产活动。
Based on the MCI index of 16 meteorological stations in HulunBuir city from 1971 to 2014 and the theory of natural disaster risk zoning,a model for the establishment of drought disaster risk zoning was established.Based on the GIS technology and remote sensing technology,the risk zoning map at the spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km was drawn.The risk zoning map showed that HulunBuir grassland drought disaster risk was generally high,the lack of infrastructure and drought resistance,agricultural production in Arong county and Zhalantun city had high drought risk values,but it was relatively low in Yakeshi city and Genhe city which had many mountains and forests.It was suggested that we should strengthen droughtprevention and drought-resistance facilities in drought-prone areas and rationally arrange and standardize agricultural and animal husbandry production activities.
Based on the MCI index of 16 meteorological stations in HulunBuir city from 1971 to 2014 and the theory of natural disaster risk zoning,a model for the establishment of drought disaster risk zoning was established.Based on the GIS technology and remote sensing technology,the risk zoning map at the spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km was drawn.The risk zoning map showed that HulunBuir grassland drought disaster risk was generally high,the lack of infrastructure and drought resistance,agricultural production in Arong county and Zhalantun city had high drought risk values,but it was relatively low in Yakeshi city and Genhe city which had many mountains and forests.It was suggested that we should strengthen droughtprevention and drought-resistance facilities in drought-prone areas and rationally arrange and standardize agricultural and animal husbandry production activities.
引文
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[12]张存杰,王胜,宋艳玲,等.我国北方地区冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估[J].干旱气象,2014,32(6):883-893.
[13]曲学斌.基于CI的呼伦贝尔市40年生长季气象干旱强度分析[J].气象科技,2015,43(1):103-107.
[14]刘欢,刘荣高,刘世阳.干旱遥感监测方法及其应用发展[J].地球科学信息学报,2012,14(2):232-239.
[15]白美兰,李金田,李喜仓,等.近50年内蒙古中东部地区春夏季干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):131-136.
[2]赵春明,刘雅鸣,张金良,等.20世纪中国水旱灾害警示录[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2002:88-93.
[3]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[4]李文亮,张丽娟,张冬有.黑龙江省低温冷害风险评估与区划研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(10):149-153.
[5]李喜仓,白美兰,杨晶,等.基于GIS技术的内蒙古地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划及评估研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):71-77.
[6]赵静,张继权,严登华,等.基于格网GIS的豫北地区干旱灾害风险区划[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):55-58.
[7]刘航,蒋尚明,金菊良,等.基于GIS的区域干旱灾害风险区划研究[J].灾害学,2013,28(3):198-203.
[8]宋连春,邓振镛,董安祥.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社,2002:36-42.
[9]王莺,王劲松,姚玉璧.甘肃省河东地区气象干旱灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(4):1115-1124.
[10]李宁,温玉婷,解伟,等.安徽省小麦旱灾风险不同区划方法对比研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):173-179.
[11]王希平.赵慧颖.内蒙古呼伦贝尔市林牧农业气候资源与区划[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:9-12.
[12]张存杰,王胜,宋艳玲,等.我国北方地区冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估[J].干旱气象,2014,32(6):883-893.
[13]曲学斌.基于CI的呼伦贝尔市40年生长季气象干旱强度分析[J].气象科技,2015,43(1):103-107.
[14]刘欢,刘荣高,刘世阳.干旱遥感监测方法及其应用发展[J].地球科学信息学报,2012,14(2):232-239.
[15]白美兰,李金田,李喜仓,等.近50年内蒙古中东部地区春夏季干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):131-136.
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