基于结构方程与蒙特卡洛方法的钻井现场作业风险评价
|
摘要
钻井现场作业的风险评价过程中,存在着监测数据与现场作业关联性不强的问题。为此,提出了采用结构方程模型(SEM)和蒙特卡罗模拟(MC)相结合来评价钻井现场作业风险的新方法,即首先构建钻井现场作业风险因子,利用SEM求出各风险因子相关性并求得其权重,再确定关键风险因子;进而由各因子的数据分布特征,利用MC求得潜变量的模拟值,与据SEM风险后果权重而求得的事故后果程度结合而得到危险度,最终把辨识出的作业危险度用来判断风险等级;并将上述方法用于分析四川盆地某气田某井的现场作业数据。研究结果表明:①较之于其他方法,新方法克服了无法确定各因子间的相关性及各因子权重的不足,为钻井现场作业风险评价提供了一条新途径;②操作行为和环境因素对钻井风险影响较小,管理因素对钻井作业风险影响最大;③场所不符合要求和一般设备缺陷是2个主要的关键风险因子,其相关系数为0.57;④根据每个风险变量的分布特征生成了一系列符合要求的样本数据,最终得到钻井风险值的概率分布,使得评价结果更加符合于实际情况。结论认为,新方法能较好地把现场监测数据用于钻井风险等级的评估,对钻井作业现场作业安全风险管理具有参考作用。
In the risk assessment of drilling site operation, the relevance between monitored data and actual on-site operation is not strong. In view of this, the structural equation model(SEM) integrated with the Monte Carlo Method(MC) was applied as a new methodology to evaluate the on-drilling-site operation risks. First, risk factors were constituted and their relevance and weights were obtained by the SEM, then the key risk factors were determined. Then, the analog values of potential data were got based upon data distribution.Finally, risk degrees were obtained in combination with SEM risk consequence weights and accident consequence degree risk degrees identified from the on-site operation, and were applied in the judgment of risk levels. This methodology was applied in a case study of a well in a gas field, Sichuan Basin. The following findings were achieved.(1) Compared with the other methods, this new methodology determined the relevance of various factors and disadvantages of each factor weight, providing a new approach for the on-site operation risk assessment.(2) The factors of operation behaviors and environmental consideration had little impact on the drilling risks but the management factor was the most influential factor.(3) The two key factors of non-conformity and general equipment defects were determined and their correlation coefficient was 0.57.(4) A series of required sample data was obtained according to the distribution characteristic of each risk variable and probability distribution of drilling risks was thus achieved, which made the assessment results more consistent with the actual situation. In conclusion, this new methodology provides not only a better way to apply the monitored on-site data to evaluate the drilling risk levels, but a reference for risk management in drilling sites.
In the risk assessment of drilling site operation, the relevance between monitored data and actual on-site operation is not strong. In view of this, the structural equation model(SEM) integrated with the Monte Carlo Method(MC) was applied as a new methodology to evaluate the on-drilling-site operation risks. First, risk factors were constituted and their relevance and weights were obtained by the SEM, then the key risk factors were determined. Then, the analog values of potential data were got based upon data distribution.Finally, risk degrees were obtained in combination with SEM risk consequence weights and accident consequence degree risk degrees identified from the on-site operation, and were applied in the judgment of risk levels. This methodology was applied in a case study of a well in a gas field, Sichuan Basin. The following findings were achieved.(1) Compared with the other methods, this new methodology determined the relevance of various factors and disadvantages of each factor weight, providing a new approach for the on-site operation risk assessment.(2) The factors of operation behaviors and environmental consideration had little impact on the drilling risks but the management factor was the most influential factor.(3) The two key factors of non-conformity and general equipment defects were determined and their correlation coefficient was 0.57.(4) A series of required sample data was obtained according to the distribution characteristic of each risk variable and probability distribution of drilling risks was thus achieved, which made the assessment results more consistent with the actual situation. In conclusion, this new methodology provides not only a better way to apply the monitored on-site data to evaluate the drilling risk levels, but a reference for risk management in drilling sites.
引文
[1]王兵,杨小莹,赵春兰,肖斌.基于贝叶斯网络的钻井作业现场风险评估[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2015,37(2):131-137.Wang Bing,Yang Xiaoying,Zhao Chunlan&Xiao Bin.Drilling site risk assessment based on Bayesian Network[J].Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science&Technology Edition),2015,37(2):131-137.
[2]杨传书.钻井风险评价系统DrillRisk的研发与应用[J].石油钻探技术,2017,45(5):60-67.Yang Chuanshu.Development and application of risk-assessment system for drilling operations[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2017,45(5):60-67.
[3]李琪,于琳琳,刘志坤,高晓荣.钻井风险因素综合评价方法及模型建立[J].天然气工业,2008,28(5):120-122.Li Qi,Yu Linlin,Liu Zhikun&Gao Xiaorong.Integrated drilling risk evaluation method and model establishment[J].Natural Gas Industry,2008,28(5):120-122.
[4]李环,韩松.基于HAZOP分析法的钻井作业风险评估[J].重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版),2013,15(增刊1):17-20.Li Huan&Han Song.Risk assessment of drilling operation base on HAZOP[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology(Natural Sciences Edition),2013,15(S1):17-20.
[5]李海宏.钻井风险评价方法与模型建立[J].石油钻探技术,2003,31(6):97-101.Li Haihong.The building of evaluation method and mathematical mode for drilling risk[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2003,31(6):97-101.
[6]金业权,吴谦,胡满.基于三角模糊数的钻井井控风险定量评价研究[J].科学技术与工程,2014,14(35):186-189.Jin Yequan,Wu Qian&Hu Man.Quantitative risk assessment model for drilling well control based on triangular fuzzy number[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2014,14(35):186-189.
[7]钱志雷,潘王海.基于SEM的国际石油工程项目风险评价[J].油气田地面工程,2013,32(10):13-14.Qian Zhilei&Pan Wanghai.Risk evaluation of international petroleum engineering project based on SEM[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2013,32(10):13-14.
[8]李建,李珂,王兵.粗糙集和神经网络相融合的钻井安全评价模型[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2017,39(5):120-128.Li Jian,Li Ke&Wang Bing.An evaluation model of drilling safety based on combined rough set and neural network[J].Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science&Technology Edition),2017,39(5):120-128.
[9]林嵩.结构方程模型原理及AMOS应用[M].武汉:华中师范大学出版社,2008.Lin Song.Theory of structural equation model and application of AMOS[M].Wuhan:Huazhong Normal University Press,2008.
[10]Golob TF.Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research[J].Transportation Research Part B,2001,37(1):1-25.
[11]Asparouhov T&Muthén B.Exploratory structural equation modeling[J].Structural Equation Modeling:Methodological A Multidisciplinary Journal,2009,16(3):397-438.
[12]梁莱歆,谢芳春,王文艺.结构方程在确定现金流风险指标权重问题中的应用[J].统计与决策,2007(9):134-135.Liang Laixin,Xie Fangchun&Wang Wenyi.Application of structural equation in determining the weight of cash flow risk index[J].Statistics and Decision,2007(9):134-135.
[13]何娟.结构方程模型在融通仓风险评价中的应用[J].中国储运,2008(7):117-119.He Juan.Application of structural equation model in risk assessment of convertible warehouse[J].China Storage&Transport,2008(7):117-119.
[14]郑家朋.基于蒙特卡洛方法的提高原油采收率潜力风险性评价[J].石油天然气学报,2010,32(1):343-345.Zheng Jiapeng.Potential risk appraisal method of enhanced of oil recovery based on Monte Carlo Method[J].Journal of Oil and Gas Technology,2010,32(1):343-345.
[15]Zhi Guozheng,Chen Yaoning,Liao Zhenliang,Walther M&Yuan Xingzhong.Comprehensive assessment of eutrophication status based on Monte Carlo-triangular fuzzy numbers model:Site study of Dongting Lake,Mid-South China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(12):1-11.
[16]文德智,卓仁鸿,丁大杰,郑慧,成晶,李正宏.蒙特卡罗模拟中相关变量随机数序列的产生方法[J].物理学报,2012,61(22):26-33.Wen Dezhi,Zhuo Renhong,Ding Dajie,Zheng Hui,Cheng Jing&Li Zhenghong.Generation of correlated pseudorandom variables in Monte Carlo simulation[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2012,61(22):26-33.
[17]娄峰,何勇,刘恒权,何光,殷治宁,卞国炎.公路桥梁施工总体安全风险评估方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):159-163.Lou Feng,He Yong,Liu Hengquan,He Guang,Yin Zhining&Bian Guoyan.Study on risk evaluation method for overall safety of highway bridge construction[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):159-163.
[18]范翔宇.复杂钻井地质环境描述[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2012.Fan Xiangyu.Description of complex drilling geological environment[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2012.
[19]邓欣,吕涛,许正刚,陈实,白浩,徐长航,等.海洋钻修机井架安全承载性能实时监测及预警[J].石油机械,2016,44(4):28-32.Deng Xin,LüTao,Xu Zhenggang,Chen Shi,Bai Hao,Xu Changhang,et al.Real-time monitoring and early warning for structure bearing safety of ocean drilling and workover rig derrick[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2016,44(4):28-32.
[20]任建民,刘瑞华,白世安.电磁涡流刹车保护装置设计[J].石油机械,2017,45(2):23-27.Ren Jianmin,Liu Ruihua&Bai Shi'an.Design of electromagnetic eddy current brake protection device[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2017,45(2):23-27.
[21]胡瑾秋,王倩琳,张来斌,王海涛,李奎为,贺维维.变压力工况下压裂泵的疲劳失效演化规律研究[J].石油机械,2017,45(4):67-73.Hu Jinqiu,Wang Qianlin,Zhang Laibin,Wang Haitao,Li Kuiwei&He Weiwei.Fatigue failure evolution of fracturing pump under changing pressure condition[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2017,45(4):67-73.
[22]汤文超,黄解军,徐亚琪,唐聪,任乐萌.基于结构方程模型和模糊综合评价的尾矿库溃坝风险评价[J].矿山测量,2017,45(3):105-109.Tang Wenchao,Huang Jiejun,Xu Yaqi,Tang Cong&Ren Lemeng.Risk evaluation of dam-break in tailings pond based on structural equation model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Mine Surveying,2017,45(3):105-109.
[23]潘丹,罗帆.基于结构方程模型的建筑施工项目安全绩效评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(2):602-609.Pan Dan&Luo fan.Safety performance evaluation of the construction projects based on the structural equation model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2018,18(2):602-609.
[24]张会敏,董玉娟.蒙特卡洛模拟法在城中村拆迁改造风险评估中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(32):18599-18601.Zhang Huimin&Dong Yujuan.Application of the Monte Carlo simulation method in risk assessment on the demolition and renovation of villages in cities project[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(32):18599-18601.
[2]杨传书.钻井风险评价系统DrillRisk的研发与应用[J].石油钻探技术,2017,45(5):60-67.Yang Chuanshu.Development and application of risk-assessment system for drilling operations[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2017,45(5):60-67.
[3]李琪,于琳琳,刘志坤,高晓荣.钻井风险因素综合评价方法及模型建立[J].天然气工业,2008,28(5):120-122.Li Qi,Yu Linlin,Liu Zhikun&Gao Xiaorong.Integrated drilling risk evaluation method and model establishment[J].Natural Gas Industry,2008,28(5):120-122.
[4]李环,韩松.基于HAZOP分析法的钻井作业风险评估[J].重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版),2013,15(增刊1):17-20.Li Huan&Han Song.Risk assessment of drilling operation base on HAZOP[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology(Natural Sciences Edition),2013,15(S1):17-20.
[5]李海宏.钻井风险评价方法与模型建立[J].石油钻探技术,2003,31(6):97-101.Li Haihong.The building of evaluation method and mathematical mode for drilling risk[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2003,31(6):97-101.
[6]金业权,吴谦,胡满.基于三角模糊数的钻井井控风险定量评价研究[J].科学技术与工程,2014,14(35):186-189.Jin Yequan,Wu Qian&Hu Man.Quantitative risk assessment model for drilling well control based on triangular fuzzy number[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2014,14(35):186-189.
[7]钱志雷,潘王海.基于SEM的国际石油工程项目风险评价[J].油气田地面工程,2013,32(10):13-14.Qian Zhilei&Pan Wanghai.Risk evaluation of international petroleum engineering project based on SEM[J].Oil-Gasfield Surface Engineering,2013,32(10):13-14.
[8]李建,李珂,王兵.粗糙集和神经网络相融合的钻井安全评价模型[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2017,39(5):120-128.Li Jian,Li Ke&Wang Bing.An evaluation model of drilling safety based on combined rough set and neural network[J].Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science&Technology Edition),2017,39(5):120-128.
[9]林嵩.结构方程模型原理及AMOS应用[M].武汉:华中师范大学出版社,2008.Lin Song.Theory of structural equation model and application of AMOS[M].Wuhan:Huazhong Normal University Press,2008.
[10]Golob TF.Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research[J].Transportation Research Part B,2001,37(1):1-25.
[11]Asparouhov T&Muthén B.Exploratory structural equation modeling[J].Structural Equation Modeling:Methodological A Multidisciplinary Journal,2009,16(3):397-438.
[12]梁莱歆,谢芳春,王文艺.结构方程在确定现金流风险指标权重问题中的应用[J].统计与决策,2007(9):134-135.Liang Laixin,Xie Fangchun&Wang Wenyi.Application of structural equation in determining the weight of cash flow risk index[J].Statistics and Decision,2007(9):134-135.
[13]何娟.结构方程模型在融通仓风险评价中的应用[J].中国储运,2008(7):117-119.He Juan.Application of structural equation model in risk assessment of convertible warehouse[J].China Storage&Transport,2008(7):117-119.
[14]郑家朋.基于蒙特卡洛方法的提高原油采收率潜力风险性评价[J].石油天然气学报,2010,32(1):343-345.Zheng Jiapeng.Potential risk appraisal method of enhanced of oil recovery based on Monte Carlo Method[J].Journal of Oil and Gas Technology,2010,32(1):343-345.
[15]Zhi Guozheng,Chen Yaoning,Liao Zhenliang,Walther M&Yuan Xingzhong.Comprehensive assessment of eutrophication status based on Monte Carlo-triangular fuzzy numbers model:Site study of Dongting Lake,Mid-South China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(12):1-11.
[16]文德智,卓仁鸿,丁大杰,郑慧,成晶,李正宏.蒙特卡罗模拟中相关变量随机数序列的产生方法[J].物理学报,2012,61(22):26-33.Wen Dezhi,Zhuo Renhong,Ding Dajie,Zheng Hui,Cheng Jing&Li Zhenghong.Generation of correlated pseudorandom variables in Monte Carlo simulation[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2012,61(22):26-33.
[17]娄峰,何勇,刘恒权,何光,殷治宁,卞国炎.公路桥梁施工总体安全风险评估方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):159-163.Lou Feng,He Yong,Liu Hengquan,He Guang,Yin Zhining&Bian Guoyan.Study on risk evaluation method for overall safety of highway bridge construction[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):159-163.
[18]范翔宇.复杂钻井地质环境描述[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2012.Fan Xiangyu.Description of complex drilling geological environment[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2012.
[19]邓欣,吕涛,许正刚,陈实,白浩,徐长航,等.海洋钻修机井架安全承载性能实时监测及预警[J].石油机械,2016,44(4):28-32.Deng Xin,LüTao,Xu Zhenggang,Chen Shi,Bai Hao,Xu Changhang,et al.Real-time monitoring and early warning for structure bearing safety of ocean drilling and workover rig derrick[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2016,44(4):28-32.
[20]任建民,刘瑞华,白世安.电磁涡流刹车保护装置设计[J].石油机械,2017,45(2):23-27.Ren Jianmin,Liu Ruihua&Bai Shi'an.Design of electromagnetic eddy current brake protection device[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2017,45(2):23-27.
[21]胡瑾秋,王倩琳,张来斌,王海涛,李奎为,贺维维.变压力工况下压裂泵的疲劳失效演化规律研究[J].石油机械,2017,45(4):67-73.Hu Jinqiu,Wang Qianlin,Zhang Laibin,Wang Haitao,Li Kuiwei&He Weiwei.Fatigue failure evolution of fracturing pump under changing pressure condition[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2017,45(4):67-73.
[22]汤文超,黄解军,徐亚琪,唐聪,任乐萌.基于结构方程模型和模糊综合评价的尾矿库溃坝风险评价[J].矿山测量,2017,45(3):105-109.Tang Wenchao,Huang Jiejun,Xu Yaqi,Tang Cong&Ren Lemeng.Risk evaluation of dam-break in tailings pond based on structural equation model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Mine Surveying,2017,45(3):105-109.
[23]潘丹,罗帆.基于结构方程模型的建筑施工项目安全绩效评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(2):602-609.Pan Dan&Luo fan.Safety performance evaluation of the construction projects based on the structural equation model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2018,18(2):602-609.
[24]张会敏,董玉娟.蒙特卡洛模拟法在城中村拆迁改造风险评估中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(32):18599-18601.Zhang Huimin&Dong Yujuan.Application of the Monte Carlo simulation method in risk assessment on the demolition and renovation of villages in cities project[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(32):18599-18601.