Indian Ocean SST modes and Their Impacts as Simulated in BCC_CSM1.1(m) and HadGEM3
|
摘要
The sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) show two dominant modes at interannual time scales,referred to as the Indian Ocean basin mode(IOBM) and dipole mode(IOD).Recent studies have shown that the IOBM and IOD not only affect the local climate,but also induce remarkable influences in East Asia via teleconnections.In this study,we assess simulations of the IOBM and IOD,as well as their teleconnections,using the operational seasonal prediction models from the Met Office(Had GEM3) and Beijing Climate Center [BCC CSM1.1(m)].It is demonstrated that the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles are generally reproduced by the control simulations of BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3,although spectra biases exist.The relationship between the TIO SSTA and El Nio is successfully simulated by both models,including the persistent IOBM warming following El Nio and the IOD–El Nio interactions.BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3 are capable of simulating the observed local impact of the IOBM,such as the strengthening of the South Asian high.The influences of the IOBM on Yangtze River rainfall are also captured well by both models,although this teleconnection is slightly weaker in BCC CSM1.1(m) due to the underestimation of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high.The local effect of the IOD on East African rainfall is reproduced by both models.However,the remote control of the IOD on rainfall over southwestern China is not clear in either model.It is shown that the realistic simulations of TIO SST modes and their teleconnections give rise to the source of skillful seasonal predictions over China.
The sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) show two dominant modes at interannual time scales,referred to as the Indian Ocean basin mode(IOBM) and dipole mode(IOD).Recent studies have shown that the IOBM and IOD not only affect the local climate,but also induce remarkable influences in East Asia via teleconnections.In this study,we assess simulations of the IOBM and IOD,as well as their teleconnections,using the operational seasonal prediction models from the Met Office(Had GEM3) and Beijing Climate Center [BCC CSM1.1(m)].It is demonstrated that the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles are generally reproduced by the control simulations of BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3,although spectra biases exist.The relationship between the TIO SSTA and El Nio is successfully simulated by both models,including the persistent IOBM warming following El Nio and the IOD–El Nio interactions.BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3 are capable of simulating the observed local impact of the IOBM,such as the strengthening of the South Asian high.The influences of the IOBM on Yangtze River rainfall are also captured well by both models,although this teleconnection is slightly weaker in BCC CSM1.1(m) due to the underestimation of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high.The local effect of the IOD on East African rainfall is reproduced by both models.However,the remote control of the IOD on rainfall over southwestern China is not clear in either model.It is shown that the realistic simulations of TIO SST modes and their teleconnections give rise to the source of skillful seasonal predictions over China.
The sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) show two dominant modes at interannual time scales,referred to as the Indian Ocean basin mode(IOBM) and dipole mode(IOD).Recent studies have shown that the IOBM and IOD not only affect the local climate,but also induce remarkable influences in East Asia via teleconnections.In this study,we assess simulations of the IOBM and IOD,as well as their teleconnections,using the operational seasonal prediction models from the Met Office(Had GEM3) and Beijing Climate Center [BCC CSM1.1(m)].It is demonstrated that the spatial patterns and seasonal cycles are generally reproduced by the control simulations of BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3,although spectra biases exist.The relationship between the TIO SSTA and El Nio is successfully simulated by both models,including the persistent IOBM warming following El Nio and the IOD–El Nio interactions.BCC CSM1.1(m) and Had GEM3 are capable of simulating the observed local impact of the IOBM,such as the strengthening of the South Asian high.The influences of the IOBM on Yangtze River rainfall are also captured well by both models,although this teleconnection is slightly weaker in BCC CSM1.1(m) due to the underestimation of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high.The local effect of the IOD on East African rainfall is reproduced by both models.However,the remote control of the IOD on rainfall over southwestern China is not clear in either model.It is shown that the realistic simulations of TIO SST modes and their teleconnections give rise to the source of skillful seasonal predictions over China.
引文
Alexander,M.A.,I.Blade,M.Newman,J.R.Lanzante,N.C.Lau,and J.D.Scott,2002:The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.J.Climate,15,2205-2231,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2.
Allan,R.,and Coauthors,2001:Is there an Indian Ocean dipole,and is it independent of the El Ni?no-Southern Oscillation?CLIVAR Exchanges,6,18-22.
Annamalai,H.,S.-P.Xie,J.-P.Mc Creary,and R.Murtugudde,2005:Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Ni?no.J.Climate,18,302-319,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3268.1.
Ashok,K.,Z.Y.Guan,and T.Yamagata,2003:Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall.Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(15),1821,https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017926.
Baquero-Bernal,A.,M.Latif,and S.Legutke,2002:On dipolelike variability of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean.J.Climate,15(11),1358-1368,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1358:ODVOSS>2.0.CO;2.
Behera,S.K.,R.Krishnan,and T.Yamagata,1999:Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1994.Geophys.Res.Lett.,26,3001-3004,https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010434.
Birkett,C.,R.Murtugudde,and R.Allan,1999:Indian Ocean climate event brings floods to East Africa’s lakes and the Sudd Marsh.Geophys.Res.Lett.,26,1031-1034,https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900165.
Black,E,J.Slingo,and K.R.Sperber,2003:An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST.Mon.Wea.Rev.,131,74-94,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2.
Chan,S.C.,S.K.Behera,and T.Yamagata,2008:Indian Ocean Dipole influence on South American rainfall.Geophys.Res.Lett.,35,L14S12,https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034204.
Chiang,J.C.H.,and A.H.Sobel,2002:Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate.J.Climate,15,2616-2631,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2616:TTTVCB>2.0.CO;2.
Dommenget,D.,and M.Jansen,2009:Predictions of Indian Ocean SST indices with a simple statistical model:A null hypothesis.J.Climate,22(18),4930-4938,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2846.1.
Dommenget,D.,and M.Latif,2002:A cautionary note on the interpretation of EOFs.J.Climate 15(2),216-225,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0216:ACNOTI>2.0.CO;2.
Dommenget,D.,2011:An objective analysis of the observed spatial structure of the Tropical Indian Ocean SST variability.Climate Dyn.,36,2129-2145,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0787-1.
Du,Y.,and S.-P.Xie,2008:Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models.Geophys.Res.Lett.,35,L08712,https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033631.
Du,Y.,S.-P.Xie,G.Huang,and K.M.Hu,2009:Role of air-sea interaction in the long persistence of El Ni?no-induced North Indian Ocean warming.J.Climate,22,2023-2038,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2590.1.
Du,Y.,L.Yang,and S.-P.Xie,2011:Tropical Indian Ocean influence on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Ni?no.J.Climate,24,315-322,https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3890.1.
Du,Y.,S.-P.Xie,Y.L.Yang,X.T.Zheng,L.Liu,and G.Huang,2013:Indian Ocean variability in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:The Basin mode.J.Climate,26,7240-7266,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00678.1.
Gill,A.E.,1980:Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,106,447-462,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905.
Harris,I.,P.D.Jones,T.J.Osborn,and D.H.Lister,2014:Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-The CRU TS3.10 Dataset.Int.J.Climatol.,34,623-642,https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711.
Huang,G.,X.Qu,and K.M.Hu,2011:The impact of the tropical Indian Ocean on South Asian high in boreal summer.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,28,421-432,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9224-y.
Huang,R.H.,and F.Y.Sun,1992:Impacts of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian summer monsoon.J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,70,243-256,https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B 243.
Johnson,S.J.,A.Turner,S.Woolnough,G.Martin,and C.Mac Lachlan,2017:An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office Glo Sea5-GC2 system.Climate Dyn.,48(5),1447-1465,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3151-2.
Kalnay,E.,and Coauthors,1996:The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,77,437-472,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Klein,S.A.,B.J.Soden,and N.C.Lau,1999:Remote Sea surface temperature variations during ENSO:Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge.J.Climate,12,917-932,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0917:RSSTVD>2.0.CO;2.
Kug,J.-S.,and I.-S.Kang,2006:Interactive feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean.J.Climate,19,1784-1801,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3660.1.
Latif,M.,D.Dommenget,M.Dima,and A.Gr¨otzner,1999:The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing East African rainfall anomalies during December-January1997/98.J.Climate,12(12),3497-3504,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3497:TROIOS>2.0.CO;2.
Li,C.F.,and Coauthors,2016:Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall.Environmental Research Letters,11,094002,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002.
Li,G.,S.-P.Xie,and Y.Du,2015:Monsoon-induced biases of climate models over the tropical Indian Ocean.J.Climate,28,3058-3072,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00740.1.
Li,T.,B.Wang,C.P.Chang,and Y.S.Zhang,2003:Atheory for the Indian Ocean dipole-zonal mode.J.Atmos.Sci.,60,2119-2135,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2.
Liu,L.,W.D.Yu,and T.Li,2011:Dynamic and thermodynamic air-sea coupling associated with the Indian Ocean dipole diagnosed from 23 WCRP CMIP3 models.J.Climate,24,4941-4958,https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4041.1.
Liu,Z.Y.,and M.Alexander,2007:Atmospheric bridge,oceanic tunnel,and global climatic teleconnections.Rev.Geophys.,45,RG2005,https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000172.
Lu,B.,and H.-L.Ren,2016a:Improving ENSO periodicity simulation by adjusting cumulus entrainment in BCC CSMs.Dyn.Atmos.Oceans,76,127-140,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.10.005.
Lu,B.,and H.-L.Ren,2016b:SST-forced interdecadal deepening of the winter India-Burma trough since the 1950s.J.Geophys.Res.,121(6),2719-2731,https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024393.
Lu,B.,and Coauthors,2017:An extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2016:Dynamics and predictability.Climate Dyn.,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3908-2.(in Press)
Mac Lachlan,C.,and Coauthors,2015:Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(Glo Sea5):A high-resolution seasonal forecast system.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,141(689),1072-1084,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.
Qiu,Y.,W.J.Cai,X.G.Guo,and B.Ng,2014:The asymmetric influence of the positive and negative IOD events on China’s rainfall.Scientific Reports,4,4943,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04943.
Rayner,N.A.,P.Brohan,D.E.Parker,C.K.Folland,J.J.Kennedy,M.Vanicek,T.J.Ansell,and S.F.B.Tett,2006:Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century:The Had SST2 dataset.J.Climate,19,446-469,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3637.1.
Ren,H.L.,and Coauthors,2017:Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center.J.Meteor.Res.,31,204-223,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6097-3.
Saji,N.H.,and T.Yamagata,2003:Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate.Climate Res.,25,151-169,https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025151.
Saji,N.H.,B.N.Goswami,P.N.Vinayachandran,and T.Yamagata,1999:A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean.Nature,401,360-363,https://doi.org/10.1038/43854.
Schott,F.A.,S.-P.Xie,and J.P.Mc Creary Jr.,2009:Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability.Rev.Geophys.,47,RG1002,https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000245.
Stevenson,S.,B.Fox-Kemper,M.Jochum,B.Rajagopalan,and S.G.Yeager,2010:ENSO model validation using wavelet probability analysis.J.Climate,23(20),5540-5547,https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3609.1.
Ummenhofer,C.C.,A.S.Gupta,M.H.England,and C.J.C.Reason,2009:Contributions of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhanced East African rainfall.J.Climate,22,993-1013,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1.
Wallace,J.M.,E.M.Rasmusson,T.P.Mitchell,V.E.Kousky,E.S.Sarachik,and H.von Storch,1998:On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific:Lessons from TOGA.J.Geophys.Res.,103,14241-14259,https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC02905.
Webster,P.J.,A.M.Moore,J.P.Loschnigg,and R.R.Leben,1999:Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98.Nature,401,356-360,https://doi.org/10.1038/43848.
Wittenberg,A.T.,2009:Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?Geophys.Res.Lett.,36,L12702,https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038710.
Wu,T.W.,and Coauthors,2010:The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model:Description and its performance for the present-day climate.Climate Dyn.,34,123-147,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0487-2.
Xie,S.-P.,K.M.Hu,J.Hafner,H.Tokinaga,Y.Du,G.Huang,and T.Sampe,2009:Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indowestern Pacific climate during the summer following El Ni?no.J.Climate,22,730-747,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1.
Xie,S.-P.,Y.Kosaka,Y.Du,K.M.Hu,J.S.Chowdary,and G.Huang,2016:Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,33(4),411-432,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6.
Yamagata,T.,S.K.Behera,S.A.Rao,and H.N.Sall,2003:Comments on“Dipoles,temperature gradients,and tropical climate anomalies”.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,84,1418-1422,https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-10-1418.
Yang,J.L.,and Q.Y.Liu,2008:The“charge/discharge”roles of the basin-wide mode of the Indian Ocean SST anomaly--influence on the South Asian High in summer.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,30,12-19,https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0253-4193.2008.02.002.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Yang,J.L.,Q.Y.Liu,S.P.Xie,Z.Y.Liu,and L.X.Wu,2007:Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon.Geophys.Res.Lett.,34,L02708,https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028571.
Yang,Y.,S.-P.Xie,L.X.Wu,Y.Kosaka,N.C.Lau,and G.A.Vecchi,2015:Seasonality and predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode:ENSO forcing and internal variability.J.Climate,28(20),8021-8036,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0078.1.
Yu,J.-Y.,C.R.Mechoso,J.C.Mc Williams,and A.Arakawa,2002:Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO cycle.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(8),46-1-46-4,https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014098.
Yuan,Y.,H.Yang,W.Zhou,and C.Y.Li,2008:Influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Asian summer monsoon in the following year.Int.J.Climatol.,28,1849-1859,https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1678.
Zhang,Q.,G.X.Wu,and Y.F.Qian,2002:The bimodality of the100 h Pa South Asia high and its relationship to the climate anomaly over East Asia in summer.J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,80,733-744,https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.733.
Zhang,Q.Y.,and S.Y.Tao,1998:Influence of Asian midhigh latitude circulation on East Asian summer rainfall.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,56,199-211,https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1998.019.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhao,J.H.,L.Yang,Y.X.Zeng,and G.L.Feng,2016:Analysis of atmospheric circulation and prediction signals for summer rainfall patterns in southern China.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,40(6),1182-1198,https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1601.15249.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Allan,R.,and Coauthors,2001:Is there an Indian Ocean dipole,and is it independent of the El Ni?no-Southern Oscillation?CLIVAR Exchanges,6,18-22.
Annamalai,H.,S.-P.Xie,J.-P.Mc Creary,and R.Murtugudde,2005:Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Ni?no.J.Climate,18,302-319,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3268.1.
Ashok,K.,Z.Y.Guan,and T.Yamagata,2003:Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall.Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(15),1821,https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017926.
Baquero-Bernal,A.,M.Latif,and S.Legutke,2002:On dipolelike variability of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean.J.Climate,15(11),1358-1368,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1358:ODVOSS>2.0.CO;2.
Behera,S.K.,R.Krishnan,and T.Yamagata,1999:Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1994.Geophys.Res.Lett.,26,3001-3004,https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010434.
Birkett,C.,R.Murtugudde,and R.Allan,1999:Indian Ocean climate event brings floods to East Africa’s lakes and the Sudd Marsh.Geophys.Res.Lett.,26,1031-1034,https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900165.
Black,E,J.Slingo,and K.R.Sperber,2003:An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST.Mon.Wea.Rev.,131,74-94,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0074:AOSOTR>2.0.CO;2.
Chan,S.C.,S.K.Behera,and T.Yamagata,2008:Indian Ocean Dipole influence on South American rainfall.Geophys.Res.Lett.,35,L14S12,https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034204.
Chiang,J.C.H.,and A.H.Sobel,2002:Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate.J.Climate,15,2616-2631,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2616:TTTVCB>2.0.CO;2.
Dommenget,D.,and M.Jansen,2009:Predictions of Indian Ocean SST indices with a simple statistical model:A null hypothesis.J.Climate,22(18),4930-4938,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2846.1.
Dommenget,D.,and M.Latif,2002:A cautionary note on the interpretation of EOFs.J.Climate 15(2),216-225,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0216:ACNOTI>2.0.CO;2.
Dommenget,D.,2011:An objective analysis of the observed spatial structure of the Tropical Indian Ocean SST variability.Climate Dyn.,36,2129-2145,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0787-1.
Du,Y.,and S.-P.Xie,2008:Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models.Geophys.Res.Lett.,35,L08712,https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033631.
Du,Y.,S.-P.Xie,G.Huang,and K.M.Hu,2009:Role of air-sea interaction in the long persistence of El Ni?no-induced North Indian Ocean warming.J.Climate,22,2023-2038,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2590.1.
Du,Y.,L.Yang,and S.-P.Xie,2011:Tropical Indian Ocean influence on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Ni?no.J.Climate,24,315-322,https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3890.1.
Du,Y.,S.-P.Xie,Y.L.Yang,X.T.Zheng,L.Liu,and G.Huang,2013:Indian Ocean variability in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:The Basin mode.J.Climate,26,7240-7266,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00678.1.
Gill,A.E.,1980:Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,106,447-462,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905.
Harris,I.,P.D.Jones,T.J.Osborn,and D.H.Lister,2014:Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-The CRU TS3.10 Dataset.Int.J.Climatol.,34,623-642,https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711.
Huang,G.,X.Qu,and K.M.Hu,2011:The impact of the tropical Indian Ocean on South Asian high in boreal summer.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,28,421-432,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9224-y.
Huang,R.H.,and F.Y.Sun,1992:Impacts of the tropical western Pacific on the East Asian summer monsoon.J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,70,243-256,https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.70.1B 243.
Johnson,S.J.,A.Turner,S.Woolnough,G.Martin,and C.Mac Lachlan,2017:An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office Glo Sea5-GC2 system.Climate Dyn.,48(5),1447-1465,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3151-2.
Kalnay,E.,and Coauthors,1996:The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,77,437-472,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Klein,S.A.,B.J.Soden,and N.C.Lau,1999:Remote Sea surface temperature variations during ENSO:Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge.J.Climate,12,917-932,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0917:RSSTVD>2.0.CO;2.
Kug,J.-S.,and I.-S.Kang,2006:Interactive feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean.J.Climate,19,1784-1801,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3660.1.
Latif,M.,D.Dommenget,M.Dima,and A.Gr¨otzner,1999:The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing East African rainfall anomalies during December-January1997/98.J.Climate,12(12),3497-3504,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3497:TROIOS>2.0.CO;2.
Li,C.F.,and Coauthors,2016:Skillful seasonal prediction of Yangtze river valley summer rainfall.Environmental Research Letters,11,094002,https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094002.
Li,G.,S.-P.Xie,and Y.Du,2015:Monsoon-induced biases of climate models over the tropical Indian Ocean.J.Climate,28,3058-3072,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00740.1.
Li,T.,B.Wang,C.P.Chang,and Y.S.Zhang,2003:Atheory for the Indian Ocean dipole-zonal mode.J.Atmos.Sci.,60,2119-2135,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2.
Liu,L.,W.D.Yu,and T.Li,2011:Dynamic and thermodynamic air-sea coupling associated with the Indian Ocean dipole diagnosed from 23 WCRP CMIP3 models.J.Climate,24,4941-4958,https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4041.1.
Liu,Z.Y.,and M.Alexander,2007:Atmospheric bridge,oceanic tunnel,and global climatic teleconnections.Rev.Geophys.,45,RG2005,https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000172.
Lu,B.,and H.-L.Ren,2016a:Improving ENSO periodicity simulation by adjusting cumulus entrainment in BCC CSMs.Dyn.Atmos.Oceans,76,127-140,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2016.10.005.
Lu,B.,and H.-L.Ren,2016b:SST-forced interdecadal deepening of the winter India-Burma trough since the 1950s.J.Geophys.Res.,121(6),2719-2731,https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024393.
Lu,B.,and Coauthors,2017:An extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2016:Dynamics and predictability.Climate Dyn.,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3908-2.(in Press)
Mac Lachlan,C.,and Coauthors,2015:Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(Glo Sea5):A high-resolution seasonal forecast system.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,141(689),1072-1084,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.
Qiu,Y.,W.J.Cai,X.G.Guo,and B.Ng,2014:The asymmetric influence of the positive and negative IOD events on China’s rainfall.Scientific Reports,4,4943,https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04943.
Rayner,N.A.,P.Brohan,D.E.Parker,C.K.Folland,J.J.Kennedy,M.Vanicek,T.J.Ansell,and S.F.B.Tett,2006:Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century:The Had SST2 dataset.J.Climate,19,446-469,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3637.1.
Ren,H.L.,and Coauthors,2017:Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center.J.Meteor.Res.,31,204-223,https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6097-3.
Saji,N.H.,and T.Yamagata,2003:Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate.Climate Res.,25,151-169,https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025151.
Saji,N.H.,B.N.Goswami,P.N.Vinayachandran,and T.Yamagata,1999:A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean.Nature,401,360-363,https://doi.org/10.1038/43854.
Schott,F.A.,S.-P.Xie,and J.P.Mc Creary Jr.,2009:Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability.Rev.Geophys.,47,RG1002,https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000245.
Stevenson,S.,B.Fox-Kemper,M.Jochum,B.Rajagopalan,and S.G.Yeager,2010:ENSO model validation using wavelet probability analysis.J.Climate,23(20),5540-5547,https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3609.1.
Ummenhofer,C.C.,A.S.Gupta,M.H.England,and C.J.C.Reason,2009:Contributions of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhanced East African rainfall.J.Climate,22,993-1013,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1.
Wallace,J.M.,E.M.Rasmusson,T.P.Mitchell,V.E.Kousky,E.S.Sarachik,and H.von Storch,1998:On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific:Lessons from TOGA.J.Geophys.Res.,103,14241-14259,https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC02905.
Webster,P.J.,A.M.Moore,J.P.Loschnigg,and R.R.Leben,1999:Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98.Nature,401,356-360,https://doi.org/10.1038/43848.
Wittenberg,A.T.,2009:Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?Geophys.Res.Lett.,36,L12702,https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038710.
Wu,T.W.,and Coauthors,2010:The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model:Description and its performance for the present-day climate.Climate Dyn.,34,123-147,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0487-2.
Xie,S.-P.,K.M.Hu,J.Hafner,H.Tokinaga,Y.Du,G.Huang,and T.Sampe,2009:Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indowestern Pacific climate during the summer following El Ni?no.J.Climate,22,730-747,https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1.
Xie,S.-P.,Y.Kosaka,Y.Du,K.M.Hu,J.S.Chowdary,and G.Huang,2016:Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer:A review.Adv.Atmos.Sci.,33(4),411-432,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6.
Yamagata,T.,S.K.Behera,S.A.Rao,and H.N.Sall,2003:Comments on“Dipoles,temperature gradients,and tropical climate anomalies”.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,84,1418-1422,https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-10-1418.
Yang,J.L.,and Q.Y.Liu,2008:The“charge/discharge”roles of the basin-wide mode of the Indian Ocean SST anomaly--influence on the South Asian High in summer.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,30,12-19,https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0253-4193.2008.02.002.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Yang,J.L.,Q.Y.Liu,S.P.Xie,Z.Y.Liu,and L.X.Wu,2007:Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon.Geophys.Res.Lett.,34,L02708,https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028571.
Yang,Y.,S.-P.Xie,L.X.Wu,Y.Kosaka,N.C.Lau,and G.A.Vecchi,2015:Seasonality and predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode:ENSO forcing and internal variability.J.Climate,28(20),8021-8036,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0078.1.
Yu,J.-Y.,C.R.Mechoso,J.C.Mc Williams,and A.Arakawa,2002:Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO cycle.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(8),46-1-46-4,https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014098.
Yuan,Y.,H.Yang,W.Zhou,and C.Y.Li,2008:Influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Asian summer monsoon in the following year.Int.J.Climatol.,28,1849-1859,https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1678.
Zhang,Q.,G.X.Wu,and Y.F.Qian,2002:The bimodality of the100 h Pa South Asia high and its relationship to the climate anomaly over East Asia in summer.J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,80,733-744,https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.733.
Zhang,Q.Y.,and S.Y.Tao,1998:Influence of Asian midhigh latitude circulation on East Asian summer rainfall.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,56,199-211,https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb1998.019.(in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhao,J.H.,L.Yang,Y.X.Zeng,and G.L.Feng,2016:Analysis of atmospheric circulation and prediction signals for summer rainfall patterns in southern China.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,40(6),1182-1198,https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1601.15249.(in Chinese with English abstract)