基于元胞自动机模型的耕地规划模拟研究
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摘要
【目的】为研究耕地利用合理规划管理、生态旅游开发、经济发展提供合理依据。【方法】以云南省寻甸县为研究对象,基于ArcGIS平台,利用Python语言,结合元胞自动机模型(cellular automata,CA),从耕地规划的适宜性、限制性、竞争性3个角度出发,开发了基于元胞自动机模型的耕地规划模拟工具。利用云南省寻甸县2010和2015年土地利用现状数据,模拟出寻甸县2020年耕地指标控制下的耕地规划图。【结果】寻甸县2020年耕地面积为63 277 hm~2,比2010年多了8277 hm~2,未成林造林地、滩涂、村庄等其他地类转换为耕地的总面积为30 598 hm~2。新增耕地在空间上避让生态林地、草地等限制区,并以耕地地力评价为重要转换依据,具有稳定性。耕地规划模拟的Kappa系数为96%,模拟精度极佳。【结论】该方法模拟精度高,可用于解决耕地红线划定、耕地规划方案中的耕地不稳定性问题。
【Objective】 It provided a reasonable basis for rational planning and management of cultivated land use, eco-tourism development and economic development in the study area.【Method】Taking Xundian county of Yunnan province as the research object, based on the ArcGIS platform, using Python language, mainly considering the suitability, limitation and competitiveness of cultivated land planning,a simulation tool for cultivated land planning based on cellular automata model was developed. Using the current land use data of Xundian County of Yunnan province in 2010 and 2015, the cultivated planning map under the control of cultivated land index in 2020 in Xundian county was simulated.【Result】 The cultivated area of Xundian county in 2020 would be 63 277 hm~2, which was more than 8277 hm~2 in 2010. And the total area of unconverted forest land, tidal flat, village and other land converted to cultivated land would be 30 598 hm~2. The new cultivated land should avoid the restricted areas such as ecological forest land and grassland in space, and the evaluation of cultivated land fertility would be an important conversion basis, so the simulation tools for arable land planning was stability. The Kappa coefficient of the cultivated land planning simulation reached 96 %, so the simulation accuracy was excellent.【Conclusion】 The method had high simulation precision and could be used to solve the problem of cultivated land instability in the delimitation of cultivated land red line and cultivated land planning scheme.
【Objective】 It provided a reasonable basis for rational planning and management of cultivated land use, eco-tourism development and economic development in the study area.【Method】Taking Xundian county of Yunnan province as the research object, based on the ArcGIS platform, using Python language, mainly considering the suitability, limitation and competitiveness of cultivated land planning,a simulation tool for cultivated land planning based on cellular automata model was developed. Using the current land use data of Xundian County of Yunnan province in 2010 and 2015, the cultivated planning map under the control of cultivated land index in 2020 in Xundian county was simulated.【Result】 The cultivated area of Xundian county in 2020 would be 63 277 hm~2, which was more than 8277 hm~2 in 2010. And the total area of unconverted forest land, tidal flat, village and other land converted to cultivated land would be 30 598 hm~2. The new cultivated land should avoid the restricted areas such as ecological forest land and grassland in space, and the evaluation of cultivated land fertility would be an important conversion basis, so the simulation tools for arable land planning was stability. The Kappa coefficient of the cultivated land planning simulation reached 96 %, so the simulation accuracy was excellent.【Conclusion】 The method had high simulation precision and could be used to solve the problem of cultivated land instability in the delimitation of cultivated land red line and cultivated land planning scheme.
引文
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[5]徐嘉兴,李钢,陈国良.基于 logistic 回归模型的矿区土地利用演变驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(20):247-255.
[6]王雪,李益敏,赵筱青.基于GIS的高山峡谷区耕地适宜性评价——以怒江州泸水县为例[J].西南农业学报,2014,27(3):1222-1227.
[7]裴亮,陈晨,戴激光,等.基于马尔科夫模型的大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化趋势研究[J].土壤通报,2017,48(3):525-531.
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[9]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟——以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-475.
[10]罗平,杜清运,雷元新,等.地理特征元胞自动机及城市土地利用演化研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2004,29(6):504-507.
[11]吴浩,周璐,史文中,等.基于正交试验设计的土地利用变化元胞自动机模拟过程的尺度敏感性分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(10):1252-1258.
[12]杨娟,王昌全,夏建国,等.基于元胞自动机的土地利用空间规划辅助研究——以眉山市东坡区为例[J].土壤学报,2010,47(5):847-856.
[13]魏冉.土地规划约束下的城市土地利用变化元胞自动机模拟[D].南京:南京师范大学,2016.
[14]孙玮健,张荣群,艾东,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模拟与驱动力分析[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(S1):254-261.
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[17]王静宇,袁希平,甘淑.基于GIS技术的县域耕地地力评价——以云南省寻甸县为例[J].昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,33(3):1-6.
[18]白根川,王昌全,夏建国,等.基于GIS技术的平昌县域耕地地力评价[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(29):212-220.
[19]谢国雄.基于GIS的杭州市耕地质量评价研究[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(20):276-283.
[20]冯晓娟,雷国平,张慧,等.基于GIS的前哨农场耕地地力评价[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):198-202.
[21]张建,李宗南,谢静.亚像元定位之邻域像元选取问题研究[J].华中师范大学学报(自科版),2013,47(3):404-409.
[22]房阿曼,陈伟强,董霁红.基于土地适宜性的耕地规划CA模拟及验证[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(8):219-225.
[23]Feinstein A R,Cicchetti D V.High agreement but low kappa:I.The problems of two paradoxes[J].Journal of Clinical Epidemiology,1990,43(6):543-549.
[24]Cicchetti D V,Feinstein A R.High agreement but low kappa:II.Resolving the paradoxes.[J].Journal of Clinical Epidemiology,1990,43(6):551-558.
[2]魏海,秦博,彭建,等.基于GRNN模型与邻域计算的低丘缓坡综合开发适宜性评价——以乌蒙山集中连片特殊困难片区为例[J].地理研究,2014,33(5):831-841.
[3]沈仁芳,陈美军,孔祥斌,等.耕地质量的概念和评价与管理对策[J].土壤学报,2012,49(6):1210-1217.
[4]苏维词,易武英.基于灰色模型的贵阳市土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力分析[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(6):256-259,266,371.
[5]徐嘉兴,李钢,陈国良.基于 logistic 回归模型的矿区土地利用演变驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(20):247-255.
[6]王雪,李益敏,赵筱青.基于GIS的高山峡谷区耕地适宜性评价——以怒江州泸水县为例[J].西南农业学报,2014,27(3):1222-1227.
[7]裴亮,陈晨,戴激光,等.基于马尔科夫模型的大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化趋势研究[J].土壤通报,2017,48(3):525-531.
[8]邱炳文,陈崇成.基于多目标决策和CA模型的土地利用变化预测模型及其应用[J].地理学报,2008,63(2):165-174.
[9]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟——以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-475.
[10]罗平,杜清运,雷元新,等.地理特征元胞自动机及城市土地利用演化研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2004,29(6):504-507.
[11]吴浩,周璐,史文中,等.基于正交试验设计的土地利用变化元胞自动机模拟过程的尺度敏感性分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(10):1252-1258.
[12]杨娟,王昌全,夏建国,等.基于元胞自动机的土地利用空间规划辅助研究——以眉山市东坡区为例[J].土壤学报,2010,47(5):847-856.
[13]魏冉.土地规划约束下的城市土地利用变化元胞自动机模拟[D].南京:南京师范大学,2016.
[14]孙玮健,张荣群,艾东,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模拟与驱动力分析[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(S1):254-261.
[15]周成虎,孙战利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[16]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟——以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-475.
[17]王静宇,袁希平,甘淑.基于GIS技术的县域耕地地力评价——以云南省寻甸县为例[J].昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,33(3):1-6.
[18]白根川,王昌全,夏建国,等.基于GIS技术的平昌县域耕地地力评价[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(29):212-220.
[19]谢国雄.基于GIS的杭州市耕地质量评价研究[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(20):276-283.
[20]冯晓娟,雷国平,张慧,等.基于GIS的前哨农场耕地地力评价[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):198-202.
[21]张建,李宗南,谢静.亚像元定位之邻域像元选取问题研究[J].华中师范大学学报(自科版),2013,47(3):404-409.
[22]房阿曼,陈伟强,董霁红.基于土地适宜性的耕地规划CA模拟及验证[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(8):219-225.
[23]Feinstein A R,Cicchetti D V.High agreement but low kappa:I.The problems of two paradoxes[J].Journal of Clinical Epidemiology,1990,43(6):543-549.
[24]Cicchetti D V,Feinstein A R.High agreement but low kappa:II.Resolving the paradoxes.[J].Journal of Clinical Epidemiology,1990,43(6):551-558.