顾及黄土滑坡的兰州市不同等级降雨时空变化特征
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摘要
降雨是诱发黄土滑坡的关键因子,不同等级的降雨及其时空分布特征影响和制约了降雨型黄土滑坡的发生和发展。利用兰州市1965—2015年逐日降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变性检验、滑动t检验、Morlet小波变换等方法分析了不同等级降雨事件的降雨量、降雨日数和贡献率,以得到其突变性、趋势性、周期性和空间分布特征,从而为突发性滑坡研究提供数据支持。结果表明:兰州市以微雨、小雨和中雨事件为主,在时间尺度上,降雨量和降雨日数均具有突变性,且突变时间各异;近50年来各等级降雨日数、降雨量存在着明显的周期性震荡,变化周期均以8a为主,该区未来几年都将处于降雨充沛期;年降雨量整体下降,其气候倾向率为-4.96mm/10a。在空间分布上,年降雨日数呈现"两多一少"的规律,降雨量则为"两少一多",不同等级降雨事件对不同地区降雨的影响程度不同;与黄土滑坡分布浅析可知降雨对诱发兰州市滑坡起到了重要的作用。
Rainfall is the key factor causing the disaster of loess landslide.Rainfall for different categories and its spatiotemporal variation affected the occurrence and development of loess landslides.Based on daily precipitation data from 1965 to 2015 of Lanzhou,we analyzed rainfall for different categories including rain days,precipitation and precipitation contribution rate,used Mann-Kendall test,moving t-test and Morlet wavelet transformation to get its abrupt change,trend,periodicity and spatial distribution in the study.It provided data support for research on loess landslide paroxysmal disaster.The results indicated that the rainfall events were characterized as light drizzle,light rain and moderate rain in Lanzhou;and the rainfall and the number of rainfall days were all abrupt,and the mutation time is different.The overall annual rainfall was on the rise,consistent with the trend of moderate rainfall.In the past 50 years,there were obvious multi-time-scale periodic oscillations of rainfall;and the variation period of the number of rainfall days was8-year,and the next few years would be abundant rainfall.The annual rainfall declined overall,and its climate tendency was-4.96 mm/decade.In the spatial distribution,the number of annual rainfall days showed‘two more and two less',and precipitation showed‘two less and two more',and the degree of rain events of different grades had different impacts on rainfall in different areas.Analysis on the rainfall and loess landslide showed that rainfall played an important role in inducing landslide in Lanzhou.
Rainfall is the key factor causing the disaster of loess landslide.Rainfall for different categories and its spatiotemporal variation affected the occurrence and development of loess landslides.Based on daily precipitation data from 1965 to 2015 of Lanzhou,we analyzed rainfall for different categories including rain days,precipitation and precipitation contribution rate,used Mann-Kendall test,moving t-test and Morlet wavelet transformation to get its abrupt change,trend,periodicity and spatial distribution in the study.It provided data support for research on loess landslide paroxysmal disaster.The results indicated that the rainfall events were characterized as light drizzle,light rain and moderate rain in Lanzhou;and the rainfall and the number of rainfall days were all abrupt,and the mutation time is different.The overall annual rainfall was on the rise,consistent with the trend of moderate rainfall.In the past 50 years,there were obvious multi-time-scale periodic oscillations of rainfall;and the variation period of the number of rainfall days was8-year,and the next few years would be abundant rainfall.The annual rainfall declined overall,and its climate tendency was-4.96 mm/decade.In the spatial distribution,the number of annual rainfall days showed‘two more and two less',and precipitation showed‘two less and two more',and the degree of rain events of different grades had different impacts on rainfall in different areas.Analysis on the rainfall and loess landslide showed that rainfall played an important role in inducing landslide in Lanzhou.
引文
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[2]张国宏,李志才,宋燕,等.中国降水量变化的空间分布特征与东亚夏季风[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1):34-42.
[3]董旭光,顾伟宗,孟祥新,等.山东省近50年来降水事件变化特征[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):661-671.
[4]张珊,杨树文,杨猛,等.兰州市降雨型黄土滑坡灾害空间分布特征[J].测绘科学,2016,41(12):142-146,211.
[5]郭慧,李栋梁,林纾,等.近50多年来我国西部地区降水的时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1165-1175.
[6]向亮,郝立生,安月改,等.51a河北省降水时空分布及变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(1):56-65.
[7]张健,满志敏,宋进喜,等.1765—2010年黄河中游5—10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析[J].地理学报,2015,70(7):1101-1113.
[8]徐维新,古松,苏文将,等.1971—2010年三江源地区干湿状况变化的空间特征[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(1):46-55.
[9]王晓,李佳秀,石红彦,等.1960—2011年云南省极端气温事件的时空分布及趋势预测[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1816-1824.
[10]吕乐婷,彭秋志,廖剑宇,等.近50年东江流域降雨径流变化趋势研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(3):514-520.
[11]杨瑜峰,江灏,赵红岩,等.兰州雨量谱的气候变化与极端化趋势[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(2):328-333.
[12]郭红霞,汪艳林,李瑞雪,等.近57年兰州市气温降水变化特征及突变分析[J].人民黄河,2010,32(1):34-36.
[13]王国庆,张建云,贺瑞敏,等.黄河兰州上游地区降水、气温变化及趋势诊断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(1):77-81.
[14]唐亦汉,陈晓宏.近50年珠江流域降雨多尺度时空变化特征及其影响[J].地理科学,2015,35(4):476-482.
[15]彭素琴,杨兴国,柯晓新,等.甘肃河东地区降雨特征分析研究[J].水科学进展,1996,7(1):73-78.
[16]李相虎,张奇,邵敏.基于TRMM数据的鄱阳湖流域降雨时空分布特征及其精度评价[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(9):1164-1170.
[17]丁祖全,黎志恒.兰州市地质灾害与防治[M].兰州:甘肃科学技术出版社,2009:3-5.
[18]郭军,任国玉,李明财.近47年环渤海地区不同级别降水事件变化[J].地理研究,2010,29(12):2271-2280.
[19]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义与检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[20]王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005:115-116.
[21] Gaucherel C.Use of wavelet transform for temporal characterization of remote watersheds[J].Journal of Hydrolagy,2002,269(3):101-121.
[22]刘东,付强.基于小波变换的三江平原低湿地井灌区年降水序列变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(3):380-384.