资源开发对鹤岗市经济增长的影响——基于资源诅咒假说
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摘要
资源诅咒现象是伴随着资源开发而产生的新型区域发展问题.利用1991~2014年间面板数据,选取资源开发强度大但经济增长缓慢区域鹤岗市为研究对象,通过计算资源诅咒系数验证是否存在资源诅咒现象,并根据系数判断资源诅咒存在程度.结果表明,鹤岗市已陷入资源诅咒困境,系数于1996年达到峰值,之后略有下降,但仍处于高危资源诅咒程度.利用Eview8. 0进行回归分析,探讨资源开发与经济增长的关系,并探究资源诅咒传导机制,进一步分析能源开发锁定效应.研究成果表明鹤岗市能源开发对经济增长的阻碍作用,主要表现在间接的传导机制,能源开发并没有带动其他产业的成长,反而因为路径锁定抑制其他产业.鹤岗市未来的发展方向应为摆脱资源诅咒,降低对资源开发的依托水平,优化产业结构.
The resource curse phenomenon is a new type of regional development that accompanies the development of resources. Using the panel data from 1991 to 2014,Hegang City is selected,which is a region with large resource development intensity but slow economic growth,as the study object. It verifies whether there is resource curse by calculating the resource curse coefficient,and the degree of resource curse based on the coefficient is judged. The results show that Hegang City has been caught in a resource curse dilemma. The coefficient peaked in 1996 and then declined slightly,but it is still at a high-risk resource curse. Using Eview8. 0 for regression analysis,the relationship between resource development and economic growth is explored,and the resource curse transmission mechanism to further analyze the locking effect of energy development is studied. The research results show that the hindrance of energy development in Hegang City to economic growth is mainly manifested in indirect transmission mechanism. Energy development has not driven the growth of other industries,but because the path lockdown inhibits other industries. The future development direction of Hegang City should be to get rid of resource curses,the level of reliance on resource development is reduced,and the industrial structure is optimized.
The resource curse phenomenon is a new type of regional development that accompanies the development of resources. Using the panel data from 1991 to 2014,Hegang City is selected,which is a region with large resource development intensity but slow economic growth,as the study object. It verifies whether there is resource curse by calculating the resource curse coefficient,and the degree of resource curse based on the coefficient is judged. The results show that Hegang City has been caught in a resource curse dilemma. The coefficient peaked in 1996 and then declined slightly,but it is still at a high-risk resource curse. Using Eview8. 0 for regression analysis,the relationship between resource development and economic growth is explored,and the resource curse transmission mechanism to further analyze the locking effect of energy development is studied. The research results show that the hindrance of energy development in Hegang City to economic growth is mainly manifested in indirect transmission mechanism. Energy development has not driven the growth of other industries,but because the path lockdown inhibits other industries. The future development direction of Hegang City should be to get rid of resource curses,the level of reliance on resource development is reduced,and the industrial structure is optimized.
引文
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[12]郑猛,罗淳.论能源开发对云南经济增长的影响——基于“资源诅咒”系数的考量[J].资源科学,2013,35(05):991-1000.
[13]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012. 319-339.
[14]任璇,汪小英.资源枯竭型城市产业结构评价与适应性调整分析——以钟祥市为例[J].资源与产业,2017,19(2):1-8.
[2]马宇,杜萌.“资源诅咒”发展历程及其传导机制文献综述[J].产业经济评论,2012(4):127-142.
[3] Sachs J D,Warner A M. Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth[Z]. NBER Working,1995. 5398.
[4] Sala-I-Martin,Subramanian. Addressing the Natural Resource Curse:An Illustration from Nigeria[Z]. NBER Working Paper No. 9804,2003.
[5]徐康宁,韩剑.中国区域经济的“资源诅咒”效应:地区差距的另一种解释[J].经济学家,2005(6):97-103.
[6]邵帅.能源产业繁荣能够驱动能源型城市经济增长吗?-以东北地区为例[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(6):38-44.
[7]邵帅,齐中英.西部地区的能源开发与经济增长-基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析[J].经济研究,2008(4):147-160.
[8]李天籽.自然资源丰裕度对中国地区经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究[J].经济科学,2007(6):66-76.
[9]丁菊红,邓可斌.政府干预、自然资源与经济增长:基于中国地区层面的研究[J].中国工业经济,2007(7):56-64.
[10]姚予龙,周洪,谷树忠.中国资源诅咒的区域差异及其驱动力剖析[J].资源科学,2011,33(01):18-24.
[11]苏迅.资源贫困:现象、原因与补偿[J].中国矿业,2007(10):11-14.
[12]郑猛,罗淳.论能源开发对云南经济增长的影响——基于“资源诅咒”系数的考量[J].资源科学,2013,35(05):991-1000.
[13]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012. 319-339.
[14]任璇,汪小英.资源枯竭型城市产业结构评价与适应性调整分析——以钟祥市为例[J].资源与产业,2017,19(2):1-8.