基于系统动力学的海洋平台安全脆弱性分析
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摘要
海洋平台承受着风、浪、流等复杂环境载荷,安全系统在保障平台安全稳定方面的作用极为突出。为深入探讨影响海洋平台安全脆弱性的机理,针对海洋平台作业环境的极端性和复杂性,建立了海洋平台的安全脆弱性系统动力学分析模型,采用模糊层次分析法确定影响安全系统中各层因素的权重系数,并设定参数,考虑子系统不同的安全投入方案,进行了海洋平台脆弱性系统分析。研究结果表明:海洋平台设备系统对于暴露度和敏感度的影响程度最高,管理系统对海洋平台安全系统的适应度起主导作用;当安全投入总值一定,对各系统的投入比例不同时,为有效降低海洋平台脆弱性,应合理分配有限投入资金。
The offshore platform bore the complicated environmental load such as wind,wave and ocean current,so the safety system plays an important role in guaranteeing the safety and stability of platform. To deeply explore the mechanism of safety vulnerability for the offshore platform,aiming at the extremeness and complexity of the working environment of offshore platforms,a system dynamics analysis model on the safety vulnerability of offshore platform was established. The weight coefficients of each influencing factor of safety system were determined by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method,and the vulnerability system of offshore platform was analyzed through setting the parameters with considering different safety input schemes of the subsystems. The results showed that the influence degree of equipment system of the offshore platform on the exposure and sensitivity was the highest,and the management system played a leading role on the fitness of safety system of the offshore platform. When the total value of safety input was constant,in order to effectively reduce the vulnerability of offshore platform,the limited input funds should be allocated reasonably when the input proportion of each system was different.
The offshore platform bore the complicated environmental load such as wind,wave and ocean current,so the safety system plays an important role in guaranteeing the safety and stability of platform. To deeply explore the mechanism of safety vulnerability for the offshore platform,aiming at the extremeness and complexity of the working environment of offshore platforms,a system dynamics analysis model on the safety vulnerability of offshore platform was established. The weight coefficients of each influencing factor of safety system were determined by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method,and the vulnerability system of offshore platform was analyzed through setting the parameters with considering different safety input schemes of the subsystems. The results showed that the influence degree of equipment system of the offshore platform on the exposure and sensitivity was the highest,and the management system played a leading role on the fitness of safety system of the offshore platform. When the total value of safety input was constant,in order to effectively reduce the vulnerability of offshore platform,the limited input funds should be allocated reasonably when the input proportion of each system was different.
引文
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[3]杨冬冬,陈国明,师吉浩.海洋平台井喷含硫天然气扩散危险区域研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):114-120.YANG Dongdong,CHEN Guoming,SHI Jihao,et al.Research on dangerous region of H2S-containing natural gas diffusion resulting from offshore platform blowout[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(8):114-120.
[4]TIMMERMANN P.Vulnerability,resilience and the collapse of society[J].Environmental Monograph,1981,1:1-42.
[5]Security vulnerability assessment-methodology for the petroleum and petrochemical industries[S].Washington:American Petroleum Institute,2004.
[6]BOHLE H G.Vulnerability and criticality:perspectives from social geography[J].IHDP Update,2001,2(1):3-5.
[7]魏彤彤,钱新明,袁梦琦.洪水灾害下化工装置的脆弱性评估[J].安全与环境学报,2016,6(6):19-23.WEI Tongtong,QIAN Xinming,YUAN Mengqi.Assessment of vulnerability of chemical installations under flood disasters[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2016,6(6):19-23.
[8]王晓瑞.瓦斯异常涌出扰动下煤矿脆弱性研究[J].煤炭与化工,2017,40(11):29-33.WANG Xiaorui.Study on coal mine vulnerability under unusual gas gushing perturbation[J].Coal and Chemicals,2017,40(11):29-33.
[9]SU H,ZIO E,ZHANG J,et al.A systematic framework of vulnerability analysis of a natural gas pipeline network[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,175:79-91.
[10]李乃文,张丽,牛莉霞.煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(10):86-92.LI Naiwen,ZHANG Li,NIU Lixia.System dynamics simulation study on the vulnerability of coal mine underground safety system[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(10):86-92.
[11]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.LI He,ZHANG Pingyu,CHENG Yeqing.The concept of vulnerability and its evaluation method[J].Progress in Geography,2008,27(2):18-25.
[12]陈维杰,陈国明,朱本瑞,等.强台风下导管架平台风载荷数值仿真分析[J].中国海上油气,2013,25(3):73-77.CHEN Weijie,CHEN Guoming,ZHU Benrui,et al.Numerical simulation analysis of wind load of strong typhoon lower jacket platform[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2013,25(3):73-77.
[13]SAMIR M,MOHAMMED T,FAISAL K,et al.Failure analysis of the offshore process component considering causation dependence[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2017,10(10):220-232.
[14]LI X,CHEN G,JIANG S,et al.Developing a dynamic model for risk analysis under uncertainty:case of third-party damage on subsea pipelines[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2018,5(1):289-302.
[15]ATANASSOV K T.Intuitionistic fuzzy sets[M].Intuitionistic fuzzy sets.Physica,Heidelberg,1999:1-137.
[16]FERDOUS R,KHAN F,SADIQ R,et al.Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram:An innovative approach[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2013,91(1):1-18.
[17]SHI L,SHUAI J,XU K.Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2014,278:529-538.