气候变化背景下华北平原夏玉米适宜播期分析
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摘要
【目的】随人口增加、饮食结构变化和能源需求的增加,中国粮食安全问题日益严峻,在耕地资源有限的背景下,高产稳产仍是保证粮食安全的主要途径。华北平原是我国夏玉米主产区,明确气候变化背景下该区域夏玉米的适宜播期,对于稳定和提升该地区夏玉米单产,保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。【方法】依据夏玉米生长季积温和降水将华北夏玉米区分为8个气候亚区,在每个气候亚区内基于1981—2015年气候资料、农业气象观测站夏玉米种植资料和土壤资料,对农业生产系统模型(APSIM-Maize)进行调参验证,选用决定系数(R~2)、D指标、均方根误差(RMSE)和归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)等指标来评价模型调参验证结果。在此基础上设置不同播期,利用调参验证后模型模拟各气候亚区不同播期夏玉米产量,采用高稳系数并综合考虑下茬作物冬小麦的播期,明确各气候亚区冬小麦-夏玉米两熟系统下充分灌溉和雨养条件夏玉米适宜播期,并分析与实际播期相比适宜播期下的夏玉米增产幅度。【结果】(1)模型适应性评价指标中决定系数(R~2)均在0.75以上,D指标均在0.80以上,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)均在7%以下,表明调参后的APSIM-Maize模型在华北平原夏玉米生育期和产量模拟方面具有较好的模拟效果,可用于华北平原夏玉米生育期和产量模拟研究。(2)充分灌溉条件下,第一气候亚区夏玉米推荐适宜播期主要在6月下旬,第二气候亚区到第七气候亚区,主要在6月中下旬,第八气候亚区主要在6月中上旬。雨养条件下,第一气候亚区主要在6月下旬和7月上旬,第二、三A、四、五、六气候亚区主要在6月中下旬,第三B、七气候亚区适宜播期范围较广,6月均可播种,第八气候亚区在6月上中旬。(3)在充分灌溉和雨养条件下,与实际播期相比,适宜播期在各气候亚区的增产幅度为第一气候亚区到第五气候亚区增产幅度最大,平均在4%—10%;第六气候亚区到第七气候亚区次之,平均在2%—5%;第八气候亚区增产幅度最小,平均在3%以下。【结论】华北平原夏玉米适宜播期随着纬度的升高而提前。充分灌溉和雨养条件下,随着年代的推移,夏玉米适宜播期呈现推迟趋势,自20世纪80年代到21世纪00年代,每10年推迟3 d左右。第一和第二气候亚区雨养条件下的适宜播期晚于充分灌溉条件下适宜播期,其他气候亚区无显著差异。与实际播期相比,各气候亚区适宜播期下产量有2%—10%的提升,但雨养和充分灌溉条件下增产幅度没有明显差异,增产幅度由南到北呈现减小的趋势,第一到第五气候亚区,增产幅度较其他气候亚区大。
【Objective】As the demand for food and fuel increase with growing population, society will be pressed to increase agricultural production, especially in China. Under the background of limited arable land resources, increasing yields and their stability on already cultivated lands is a high priority to food security. North China Plain is the main summer maize producing area in China. Therefore, knowledge of the suitable sowing date of summer maize in this region under climate change are quite important for stabilizing and improving the yield of summer maize and ensuring food security in China. 【Method】 In this paper, the study area was divided into eight climatic zones(CRs) according to the precipitation and accumulated temperature during summer maize growing season. In each climatic region, the APSIM-Maize model was validated based on climatological data from 1981 to 2015, agro-meteorological observations of summer maize and soil data. Then statistical indicators of the decision coefficients(R~2), D-index, root mean square error(RMSE) and normalized root mean square error(NRMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance and accuracy. Using the validated models, the summer maize yields on the different sowing date were simulate in each climatic region. In the winter wheat-summer maize cropping system, we identified the suitable sowing date of summer maize under two scenarios: Potential(non-water limited) and rain-fed(no irrigation), by using the high stability coefficient(HSC) and considering the sowing date of winter wheat. And evaluated the yield changes of summer maize under appropriate sowing date were compared with the current actual sowing date. 【Result】 For model evaluation indicators, the R~2 values were higher than 0.75, the D values were higher than 0.80, and NRMSE values were less than 7%, and those results indicated that the APSIM-Maize model provided good estimates of the growth period and yield of summer maize, and could be applied to simulate the growth period and yield of summer maize in North China Plain. Under full irrigation, the suitable sowing date of the CR1 was mainly in late June. For CR~2 to CR7, the suitable sowing date were mainly in the middle and late June, and CR8 was mainly in the middle and early June. Under rain-fed conditions, the suitable sowing date of the CR1 was mainly in late June and early July. For CRs 2, 3 A, 4, 5, 6, the suitable sowing date were mainly in late June. CRs 3 B and 7 had a wide range for sowing in June, and CR8 were suit for mid-June. Under potential and rain-fed conditions, there were increases in yields due to the changes of sowing dates in each CR. Moreover, CRs 1 to 5 had the highest yield increases, with an average of 4% to 10%. For CRs 6 to 8, yield increases were ranging from 2% to 5%. CR8 had the lowest increases, with an average of less than 3%. 【Conclusion】 The suitable sowing date of summer maize in North China Plain advanced with the increase of latitude. On the conditions of potential or rain-fed, the suitable sowing date of summer maize delayed 3 days per decade from the 1980 s to the 2000 s. The suitable sowing dates in CRs 1 and 2 under rain-fed condition were later than that under potential conditions, while there were no significant differences in other CRs. Compared with the actual sowing date, the yield under the suitable sowing date was increased by 2% to 10% in each CR, but there were no significant differences between potential and rain-fed conditions. The magnitude of increase rate showed a decreasing trend from south to north. In the CRs 1 to 5, the yield increases were higher than other CRs.
【Objective】As the demand for food and fuel increase with growing population, society will be pressed to increase agricultural production, especially in China. Under the background of limited arable land resources, increasing yields and their stability on already cultivated lands is a high priority to food security. North China Plain is the main summer maize producing area in China. Therefore, knowledge of the suitable sowing date of summer maize in this region under climate change are quite important for stabilizing and improving the yield of summer maize and ensuring food security in China. 【Method】 In this paper, the study area was divided into eight climatic zones(CRs) according to the precipitation and accumulated temperature during summer maize growing season. In each climatic region, the APSIM-Maize model was validated based on climatological data from 1981 to 2015, agro-meteorological observations of summer maize and soil data. Then statistical indicators of the decision coefficients(R~2), D-index, root mean square error(RMSE) and normalized root mean square error(NRMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance and accuracy. Using the validated models, the summer maize yields on the different sowing date were simulate in each climatic region. In the winter wheat-summer maize cropping system, we identified the suitable sowing date of summer maize under two scenarios: Potential(non-water limited) and rain-fed(no irrigation), by using the high stability coefficient(HSC) and considering the sowing date of winter wheat. And evaluated the yield changes of summer maize under appropriate sowing date were compared with the current actual sowing date. 【Result】 For model evaluation indicators, the R~2 values were higher than 0.75, the D values were higher than 0.80, and NRMSE values were less than 7%, and those results indicated that the APSIM-Maize model provided good estimates of the growth period and yield of summer maize, and could be applied to simulate the growth period and yield of summer maize in North China Plain. Under full irrigation, the suitable sowing date of the CR1 was mainly in late June. For CR~2 to CR7, the suitable sowing date were mainly in the middle and late June, and CR8 was mainly in the middle and early June. Under rain-fed conditions, the suitable sowing date of the CR1 was mainly in late June and early July. For CRs 2, 3 A, 4, 5, 6, the suitable sowing date were mainly in late June. CRs 3 B and 7 had a wide range for sowing in June, and CR8 were suit for mid-June. Under potential and rain-fed conditions, there were increases in yields due to the changes of sowing dates in each CR. Moreover, CRs 1 to 5 had the highest yield increases, with an average of 4% to 10%. For CRs 6 to 8, yield increases were ranging from 2% to 5%. CR8 had the lowest increases, with an average of less than 3%. 【Conclusion】 The suitable sowing date of summer maize in North China Plain advanced with the increase of latitude. On the conditions of potential or rain-fed, the suitable sowing date of summer maize delayed 3 days per decade from the 1980 s to the 2000 s. The suitable sowing dates in CRs 1 and 2 under rain-fed condition were later than that under potential conditions, while there were no significant differences in other CRs. Compared with the actual sowing date, the yield under the suitable sowing date was increased by 2% to 10% in each CR, but there were no significant differences between potential and rain-fed conditions. The magnitude of increase rate showed a decreasing trend from south to north. In the CRs 1 to 5, the yield increases were higher than other CRs.
引文
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