特朗普政府的中南亚战略构想及实施困境
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摘要
特朗普上任后首份《国家安全战略》报告全面展示了其政府的方针政策。其中,中南亚地区安全战略以全面巩固美国在阿富汗势力为抓手,依赖印度,敲打巴基斯坦,提防中国。特朗普政府的中南亚战略与往届政府最大的不同之处在于对印度的倚重。随着国力的增强,在美国的帮助下,印度国际地位进一步上升,在处理自身与中南亚地区国家关系上发挥了更大的主观能动性。但特朗普政府的中南亚安全战略仍面临现实困境,印度、巴基斯坦、中亚国家以及阿富汗都存在不确定因素。特朗普政府的中南亚安全战略与其印太战略相呼应,借重印度的同时也得到了印度的积极回应。
引文
[1]潘志平.中南亚的民族宗教冲突[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.2003.
[2]许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社.2016.
[3]杜幼康.美国的南亚与中亚“整合”战略剖析[J].现代国际关系,2007(04):16-21.
[4]宋德星.世界政治中的“中南亚”:新的地缘政治图景[J].外交评论(外交学院学报),2011,28(05):1-10.
[5]崔建树.特朗普政府重整核军备动因研究[J].国际安全研究,2019,37(02):137-155+160.
[6]罗藏才让.美印防务安全合作最新动态探析[J].南亚研究,2016(02) :105-126+156-157.
[7][美]彼得·卡赞斯坦.地区构成的世界:美国帝权中的亚洲和欧洲[M].北京:北京大学出版社.2007.
[8][美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].广州:广东人民出版社.2013.
[9][英]加文·汉布里.中亚史纲要[M].北京:商务印书馆.1994.
[10][英]巴里·布赞,[丹]奥利·维夫.地区安全复合体与国际安全结构[M].上海:上海人民出版社.2009.
[11]The White House.National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].December 2017.
[12]Frederick Starr.A“Greater Central Asia Partnership”for Afghanistan and Its Neighbors[R].Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program.March.2005.
[13]Meena Singh Roy,Rajorshi Roy.Placing India in the Emerging Regional Dynamics of Central Asia [J].Revista UNISCI.2017(45):85-116.
[14]Hanif S,Khan M.US Security Strategy for Asia Pacific and India’s Role[J].Strategic Studies.2018,38(1).
[15]Warikoo,K.Central Asia and South Asia:Opportunities and Challenges[J].India Quarterly.2016,72(1):1-15.
[16]Afghanistan/India.India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[J].Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service.2018:1.
[17] Mehta P S,Cote K.The Trump presidency and the future of Indo-US relations [J].Asia Pacific Bulletin.2017.
[18] George W Bush.Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People [EB/OL].[2001-9-20]:https://2001-2009.state.gov/coalition/cr/rm/2001/5025.htm.
(1)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(2)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017:50.
(3)潘志平.中南亚的民族宗教冲突[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,2003:6.
(4)Frederick Starr.A “Greater Central Asia Partnership” for Afghanistan and Its Neighbors[R].Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program.March,2005.
(5)罗藏才让.美印防务安全合作最新动态探析[J].南亚研究,2016(2):115.
(6)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017:50.
(7)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017:50.
(8)许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社,2016:116.
(9)George W.Bush.Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People[M].September 20,2001.https://2001-2009.state.gov/coalition/cr/rm/2001/5025.htm.
(10)[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦.地区构成的世界:美国帝权中的亚洲和欧洲[M].魏玲,译.北京:北京大学出版社.2007:245.
(11)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(12)崔建树.特朗普政府重整核军备动因研究[J].国际安全研究,2019(2):138.
(13)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(14)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(15)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(16)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(17)Hanif S,Khan M.US Security Strategy for Asia Pacific and India’s Role[J].Strategic Studies,2018(1):38.
(18)Hanif S,Khan M.US Security Strategy for Asia Pacific and India’s Role[J].Strategic Studies,2018(1):38.
(19)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:130.
(20)许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社,2016:33.
(21)Meena Singh Roy,Rajorshi Roy.Placing India in the Emerging Regional Dynamics of Central Asia[M].Revista UNISCI,2017:45.
(22)杜幼康.美国的南亚与中亚“整合”战略剖析[J].现代国际关系,2007(4):21.
(23)[英]加文·汉布里主编.中亚史纲要[M].北京:商务印书馆,1994:3.
(24)Meena Singh Roy,Rajorshi Roy.Placing India in the Emerging Regional Dynamics of Central Asia[M].Revista UNISCI,2017:47.
(25)Warikoo K.Central Asia and South Asia:Opportunities and Challenges[J].India Quarterly,2016(1):72.
(26)Warikoo K.Central Asia and South Asia:Opportunities and Challenges[J].India Quarterly,2016(1):73.
(27)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:122.
(28)许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社,2016:44.
(29)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:245.
(30)Afghanistan /India:India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[N].Oxford Analytical Daily Brief Service,vol.1,2018.
(31)Afghanistan /India:India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[N].Oxford Analytical Daily Brief Service,vol.1,2018.
(32)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:245.
(33)Afghanistan/India:India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[N].Oxford Analytical Daily Brief Service,vol.1,2018.
(34)宋德星.世界政治中的“中南亚”:新的地缘政治图景[J].外交评论,2011(5):2.
[2]许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社.2016.
[3]杜幼康.美国的南亚与中亚“整合”战略剖析[J].现代国际关系,2007(04):16-21.
[4]宋德星.世界政治中的“中南亚”:新的地缘政治图景[J].外交评论(外交学院学报),2011,28(05):1-10.
[5]崔建树.特朗普政府重整核军备动因研究[J].国际安全研究,2019,37(02):137-155+160.
[6]罗藏才让.美印防务安全合作最新动态探析[J].南亚研究,2016(02) :105-126+156-157.
[7][美]彼得·卡赞斯坦.地区构成的世界:美国帝权中的亚洲和欧洲[M].北京:北京大学出版社.2007.
[8][美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].广州:广东人民出版社.2013.
[9][英]加文·汉布里.中亚史纲要[M].北京:商务印书馆.1994.
[10][英]巴里·布赞,[丹]奥利·维夫.地区安全复合体与国际安全结构[M].上海:上海人民出版社.2009.
[11]The White House.National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].December 2017.
[12]Frederick Starr.A“Greater Central Asia Partnership”for Afghanistan and Its Neighbors[R].Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program.March.2005.
[13]Meena Singh Roy,Rajorshi Roy.Placing India in the Emerging Regional Dynamics of Central Asia [J].Revista UNISCI.2017(45):85-116.
[14]Hanif S,Khan M.US Security Strategy for Asia Pacific and India’s Role[J].Strategic Studies.2018,38(1).
[15]Warikoo,K.Central Asia and South Asia:Opportunities and Challenges[J].India Quarterly.2016,72(1):1-15.
[16]Afghanistan/India.India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[J].Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service.2018:1.
[17] Mehta P S,Cote K.The Trump presidency and the future of Indo-US relations [J].Asia Pacific Bulletin.2017.
[18] George W Bush.Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People [EB/OL].[2001-9-20]:https://2001-2009.state.gov/coalition/cr/rm/2001/5025.htm.
(1)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(2)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017:50.
(3)潘志平.中南亚的民族宗教冲突[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,2003:6.
(4)Frederick Starr.A “Greater Central Asia Partnership” for Afghanistan and Its Neighbors[R].Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program.March,2005.
(5)罗藏才让.美印防务安全合作最新动态探析[J].南亚研究,2016(2):115.
(6)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017:50.
(7)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017:50.
(8)许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社,2016:116.
(9)George W.Bush.Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People[M].September 20,2001.https://2001-2009.state.gov/coalition/cr/rm/2001/5025.htm.
(10)[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦.地区构成的世界:美国帝权中的亚洲和欧洲[M].魏玲,译.北京:北京大学出版社.2007:245.
(11)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(12)崔建树.特朗普政府重整核军备动因研究[J].国际安全研究,2019(2):138.
(13)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(14)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(15)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(16)National Security Strategy of the United States of America[R].the White House,December,2017.
(17)Hanif S,Khan M.US Security Strategy for Asia Pacific and India’s Role[J].Strategic Studies,2018(1):38.
(18)Hanif S,Khan M.US Security Strategy for Asia Pacific and India’s Role[J].Strategic Studies,2018(1):38.
(19)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:130.
(20)许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社,2016:33.
(21)Meena Singh Roy,Rajorshi Roy.Placing India in the Emerging Regional Dynamics of Central Asia[M].Revista UNISCI,2017:45.
(22)杜幼康.美国的南亚与中亚“整合”战略剖析[J].现代国际关系,2007(4):21.
(23)[英]加文·汉布里主编.中亚史纲要[M].北京:商务印书馆,1994:3.
(24)Meena Singh Roy,Rajorshi Roy.Placing India in the Emerging Regional Dynamics of Central Asia[M].Revista UNISCI,2017:47.
(25)Warikoo K.Central Asia and South Asia:Opportunities and Challenges[J].India Quarterly,2016(1):72.
(26)Warikoo K.Central Asia and South Asia:Opportunities and Challenges[J].India Quarterly,2016(1):73.
(27)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:122.
(28)许涛.中亚地缘政治沿革:历史、现状与未来[M].北京:时事出版社,2016:44.
(29)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:245.
(30)Afghanistan /India:India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[N].Oxford Analytical Daily Brief Service,vol.1,2018.
(31)Afghanistan /India:India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[N].Oxford Analytical Daily Brief Service,vol.1,2018.
(32)[美]罗伯特·D·卡普兰.即将到来的地缘战争:无法回避的大国冲突及对地理宿命的抗争[M].涵朴,译.广州:广东人民出版社,2013:245.
(33)Afghanistan/India:India’s Afghan Role Will Be Limited[N].Oxford Analytical Daily Brief Service,vol.1,2018.
(34)宋德星.世界政治中的“中南亚”:新的地缘政治图景[J].外交评论,2011(5):2.