预期寿命对国家总储蓄率的影响探究
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摘要
本文基于生命周期假说,建立了简单的世代交叠模型,得出了国家总储蓄率与国民预期寿命呈正相关,与老年抚养比和上一期出生率呈负相关的结论.在实证部分,使用世界156个国家2010～2016年的面板数据,将人均实际收入增长率、一年期存款利率作为控制变量,运用混合OLS和双向固定效应模型进行验证,实证结果证实了理论模型的结论.
Based on the life-cycle hypothesis,this paper develops a simple overlapping generation model and finds that the national saving rates is positively correlated with life expectancy and negatively correlated with old-age dependency ratio and birth rate of last phase.In the empirical part,the growth rate of per capita real income and one-year deposit rate are taken as control variables based on the panel data of 156 countries from 2010 to 2016,and the mixed OLS and two-way fixed effect model are used to verify the conclusion of the theoretical model.
Based on the life-cycle hypothesis,this paper develops a simple overlapping generation model and finds that the national saving rates is positively correlated with life expectancy and negatively correlated with old-age dependency ratio and birth rate of last phase.In the empirical part,the growth rate of per capita real income and one-year deposit rate are taken as control variables based on the panel data of 156 countries from 2010 to 2016,and the mixed OLS and two-way fixed effect model are used to verify the conclusion of the theoretical model.
引文
[1]Bloom D E,Canning D,Graham B.Longevity and Life-cycle Savings[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(105):319-338.
[2]Bloom D E,Canning D,Sevilla J.The Effect of Health on Economic Growth:A Production Function Approach[J].World Development,2004,32(1):1-13.
[3]Bloom D E,Canning D,Mansfield R K,et al.Demographic Change,Social Security Systems,and Savings[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54(1):92.
[4]B?rnighausen T,Bloom D E,Cafiero-Fonseca E T,et al.Valuing vaccination[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(34):12313.
[5]Li H,Zhang J,Zhang J.Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth:Evidence from a panel of cross countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,84(1):138-154.
[6]Romer P M.Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
[7]Bloom D E,Canning D,Graham B.Longevity and Lifecycle Savings[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(3):319-338.
[8]Modigliani F,Cao S L.The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004,42(1):145-170.
[9]Horioka C Y,Wan J.The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data[J].Journal of Money Credit &Banking,2007,39(8):2077-2096.
[2]Bloom D E,Canning D,Sevilla J.The Effect of Health on Economic Growth:A Production Function Approach[J].World Development,2004,32(1):1-13.
[3]Bloom D E,Canning D,Mansfield R K,et al.Demographic Change,Social Security Systems,and Savings[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54(1):92.
[4]B?rnighausen T,Bloom D E,Cafiero-Fonseca E T,et al.Valuing vaccination[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(34):12313.
[5]Li H,Zhang J,Zhang J.Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth:Evidence from a panel of cross countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,84(1):138-154.
[6]Romer P M.Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
[7]Bloom D E,Canning D,Graham B.Longevity and Lifecycle Savings[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(3):319-338.
[8]Modigliani F,Cao S L.The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004,42(1):145-170.
[9]Horioka C Y,Wan J.The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data[J].Journal of Money Credit &Banking,2007,39(8):2077-2096.