晋北农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力分布特征及其对气候变化的响应
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摘要
选取晋北农牧交错带1961—2016年19个气象站点逐日气象资料以及1981—2016年5种粮食作物发育期观测资料,采用作物生产潜力逐级订正法,分析不同作物各级生产潜力分布特征,并基于各级生产潜力变化倾向率建立统计模型,分析辐射、气温、降水等气候要素变化对气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明:1961—2016年,晋北各作物光温生产潜力空间分布特征为:玉米、谷子、高粱和大豆东高西低,马铃薯空间分布差异较小;各作物气候生产潜力空间分布特征为:玉米、谷子和高粱东南高西北低,马铃薯东西高中部低,大豆空间分布差异较小;气候要素变化对不同作物气候生产潜力的影响不同,辐射变化对5种作物气候生产潜力的影响为负效应;气温变化对大部分地区喜温作物(玉米、大豆、谷子和高粱)气候生产潜力的影响为正效应,对喜凉作物马铃薯的影响是负效应,气候变暖对改善晋北地区热量不足有利;降水变化是影响晋北作物气候生产潜力变化出现明显空间差异的主要因素,降水减少对于东北部降水偏少地区的影响为负效应,而对于南部降水较多地区未表现负效应,降水基本满足作物生长需要;为适应当前气候变化,需加强高光合效率和抗旱作物品种的选育,合理密植,调整播期,优化农业布局,因地制宜地推广农业集雨灌溉和农业节水灌溉技术,以提高农业气候资源利用率,促进粮食作物稳产高产。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations in agro-pastural ecotone of northern Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2016 and the observational data of five grain crops during growth period from 1981 to 2016,the potential productivity of crops were calculated through a step-by-step correction method. The spatial distributions in climatic potential productivity of five grain crops at different levels were analyzed. The impacts of changes in climatic elements,such as radiation,temperature and precipitation on climatic potential productivity were analyzed by a statistical model based on the propensity to change in potential productivity at all levels. The results showed that the light/temperature potential productivity of maize,millet,sorghum and soybean in the northern Shanxi Province during the period 1961-2016 decreased from the east to the west. The spatial difference of photosynthetic potential productivity of potato was minor. The climate potential productivity of maize,millet and sorghum decreased from the southeast to the northeast. The distribution of climatic potential productivity of potato was higher in the west and the east and lower in the middle. The spatial difference in photosynthetic potential productivity of soybeans was slight. The impact of climate change on the climatic potential productivity differed among crop species. The effects of radiation changes on the climate potential productivity of five crops were negative. The effects of temperature changes on the climatic potential productivity were positive for thermophilic crops( maize,soybean,millet and sorghum) in most regions,but negative for chimonophilous crops( potato). Climate warming was beneficial to improving heat shortage in northern Shanxi. Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting the spatial change of climatic potential productivity. Reduced precipitation had a negative effect in the northern part with less precipitation,and no effect in the south part with more precipitation.To adapt to the climate change,it is necessary to strengthen the selection of high photosynthetic efficiency and drought-resistant crop varieties,rationalize planting density,adjust sowing date,optimize agricultural distribution,and promote agricultural rainwater harvesting and agricultural water-saving irrigation technologies in accordance with local conditions,in order to enhance the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promote stable and high yield of food crops.
Based on the daily meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations in agro-pastural ecotone of northern Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2016 and the observational data of five grain crops during growth period from 1981 to 2016,the potential productivity of crops were calculated through a step-by-step correction method. The spatial distributions in climatic potential productivity of five grain crops at different levels were analyzed. The impacts of changes in climatic elements,such as radiation,temperature and precipitation on climatic potential productivity were analyzed by a statistical model based on the propensity to change in potential productivity at all levels. The results showed that the light/temperature potential productivity of maize,millet,sorghum and soybean in the northern Shanxi Province during the period 1961-2016 decreased from the east to the west. The spatial difference of photosynthetic potential productivity of potato was minor. The climate potential productivity of maize,millet and sorghum decreased from the southeast to the northeast. The distribution of climatic potential productivity of potato was higher in the west and the east and lower in the middle. The spatial difference in photosynthetic potential productivity of soybeans was slight. The impact of climate change on the climatic potential productivity differed among crop species. The effects of radiation changes on the climate potential productivity of five crops were negative. The effects of temperature changes on the climatic potential productivity were positive for thermophilic crops( maize,soybean,millet and sorghum) in most regions,but negative for chimonophilous crops( potato). Climate warming was beneficial to improving heat shortage in northern Shanxi. Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting the spatial change of climatic potential productivity. Reduced precipitation had a negative effect in the northern part with less precipitation,and no effect in the south part with more precipitation.To adapt to the climate change,it is necessary to strengthen the selection of high photosynthetic efficiency and drought-resistant crop varieties,rationalize planting density,adjust sowing date,optimize agricultural distribution,and promote agricultural rainwater harvesting and agricultural water-saving irrigation technologies in accordance with local conditions,in order to enhance the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promote stable and high yield of food crops.
引文
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陈国南.1987.用迈阿密模型测算我国生物生产量的初步尝试.自然资源学报,2(3):270-278.
邓振镛,王强,张强,等.2010.中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施.生态学报,30(22):6278-6288.
高素华,潘亚茹,郭建平.1994.气候变化对植物气候生产力的影响.气象,20(1):30-33.
高素华.1996.中国三北地区农业气候生产潜力及开发利用对策研究.北京:气象出版社:22-27.
辜晓青,李美华,蔡哲,等.2010.气候变化背景下江西省早稻气候生产潜力的变化.中国农业气象,31(s1):84-89.
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郭建平.2015.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展.应用气象学报,26(1):1-11.
郭建平.2016.气候变化对农业气候资源有效性的影响评估.北京:气象出版社:2-49.
何磊.2007.气候变化对北方农牧交错带农业生产脆弱性的影响研究(硕士学位论文).南京:南京信息工程大学.
侯光良,刘允芬.1985.我国气候生产潜力及其分区.自然资源,19(3):52-59.
侯西勇.2008.1951-2000年中国气候生产潜力时空动态特征.干旱区地理,31(5):723-729.
赖荣生.2016.气候变化背景下宁夏作物生产潜力及种植结构变化趋势分析(硕士学位论文).银川:宁夏大学.
赖荣生,余海龙,黄菊莹.2014.宁夏中部干旱带气候变化及其对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响.中国农业大学学报,19(3):108-114.
李三爱,居辉,池宝亮.2005.作物生产潜力研究进展.中国农业气象,26(2):106-111.
刘勤,严昌荣,何文清.2007.山西寿阳县旱作农业气候生产潜力研究.中国农业气象,28(3):271-274.
刘建栋,于强,傅抱璞.1999.黄淮海地区冬小麦光温生产潜力数值模拟研究.自然资源学报,14(2):169-174.
毛留喜,刘国彬,王利文,等.2000.北方农牧交错带的粮食生产率胁迫力研究.水土保持学报,14(5):98-103.
山西省统计局,国家统计局山西调查总队.2012-2016.山西统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社.
史泽艳.2005.中国东部地区作物生产力模拟对比研究(硕士学位论文).北京:北京师范大学.
王爱华.2004.马铃薯主要农艺性状的动态模拟研究(硕士学位论文).杭州:浙江大学.
王改玲,王青杵.2014.晋北黄土丘陵区不同人工植被对土壤质量的影响.生态学杂志,33(6):1487-1491.
王晓煜,杨晓光,孙爽,等.2015.气候变化背景下东北三省主要粮食作物产量潜力及资源利用效率比较.应用生态学报,26(10):3091-3102.
王秀芬,杨艳昭,尤飞.2012.黑龙江省气候变化及其对玉米生产潜力的影响.干旱地区农业研究,35(5):25-29.
王宗明,张柏,张树清,等.2005.松嫩平原农业气候生产潜力及自然资源利用率研究.中国农业气象,26(1):1-6.
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武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.2009.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析.生态环境学报,18(2):567-571.
谢万银,郭小芹,陆登荣,等.2015.陇中黄土高原气候生产潜力时空变化及水热因子驱动分析.干旱气象,33(5):861-866.
闫冠华,李巧萍,吕冬红.2008.中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特征及未来趋势.大气科学学报,31(5):671-678.
姚筠,许莹,马晓群.2017.淮河流域降水变化对主要农作物气候生产潜力的限制.资源科学,39(3):490-500.
姚玉壁,李耀辉,王毅荣,等.2005.黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应.干旱地区农业研究,23(2):202-208.
姚玉璧,杨金虎,肖国举,等.2018.气候变暖对西北雨养农业及农业生态影响研究进展.生态学杂志,37(7):2170-2179.
尹海霞,张勃,张建香,等.2013.甘肃省河东地区春玉米气候因子及气候生产潜力时空变化.生态学杂志,32(6):1504-1510.
袁彬,郭建平,冶明珠,等.2012.气候变化下东北春玉米品种熟型分布格局及其气候生产潜力.科学通报,57(14):1252-1262.
张强,杨贤为,黄朝迎.1995.近30年气候变化对黄土高原地区玉米生产潜力的影响.中国农业气象,16(6):19-23.
张悦,邸万通,王晶晶,等.2017.北方农牧交错带间套作资源利用的研究进展.生态学杂志,36(9):2623-2632.
张莉秋,张红,李皎,等.2016.晋北沙漠化地区1980-2014年的气候变化.中国沙漠,36(4):1116-1125.
张耀耀,刘建刚,杨萌,等.2015.气候变化对作物生产潜力的影响研究进展.农学学报,5(1):119-123.
赵俊芳,郭建平,邬定容,等.2011.2011-2050年黄淮海冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力评价.应用生态学报,22(12):3189-3195.
中国农业百科全书总编辑委员会农业气象卷编辑委员会,中国农业百科全书编辑部.1986.中国农业百科全书(农业气象卷).北京:农业出版社.
周广胜,何奇瑾,汲玉河.2016.适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展.应用气象学报,27(5):527-533.
周广胜.2015.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望.气象与环境科学,38(1):80-94.
朱旭东,何洪林,刘敏,等.2010.近50年中国光合有效辐射的时空变化特征.地理学报,65(3):270-280.
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蔡霞,蔡琳,李春华,等.2012.晋北地区降水量时空变化及突变分析.干旱地区农业研究,30(2):347-353.
陈国南.1987.用迈阿密模型测算我国生物生产量的初步尝试.自然资源学报,2(3):270-278.
邓振镛,王强,张强,等.2010.中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施.生态学报,30(22):6278-6288.
高素华,潘亚茹,郭建平.1994.气候变化对植物气候生产力的影响.气象,20(1):30-33.
高素华.1996.中国三北地区农业气候生产潜力及开发利用对策研究.北京:气象出版社:22-27.
辜晓青,李美华,蔡哲,等.2010.气候变化背景下江西省早稻气候生产潜力的变化.中国农业气象,31(s1):84-89.
郭建平,高素华,潘亚茹.1995.东北地区农业气候生产潜力及其开发利用对策.气象,21(2):3-9.
郭建平.2015.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展.应用气象学报,26(1):1-11.
郭建平.2016.气候变化对农业气候资源有效性的影响评估.北京:气象出版社:2-49.
何磊.2007.气候变化对北方农牧交错带农业生产脆弱性的影响研究(硕士学位论文).南京:南京信息工程大学.
侯光良,刘允芬.1985.我国气候生产潜力及其分区.自然资源,19(3):52-59.
侯西勇.2008.1951-2000年中国气候生产潜力时空动态特征.干旱区地理,31(5):723-729.
赖荣生.2016.气候变化背景下宁夏作物生产潜力及种植结构变化趋势分析(硕士学位论文).银川:宁夏大学.
赖荣生,余海龙,黄菊莹.2014.宁夏中部干旱带气候变化及其对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响.中国农业大学学报,19(3):108-114.
李三爱,居辉,池宝亮.2005.作物生产潜力研究进展.中国农业气象,26(2):106-111.
刘勤,严昌荣,何文清.2007.山西寿阳县旱作农业气候生产潜力研究.中国农业气象,28(3):271-274.
刘建栋,于强,傅抱璞.1999.黄淮海地区冬小麦光温生产潜力数值模拟研究.自然资源学报,14(2):169-174.
毛留喜,刘国彬,王利文,等.2000.北方农牧交错带的粮食生产率胁迫力研究.水土保持学报,14(5):98-103.
山西省统计局,国家统计局山西调查总队.2012-2016.山西统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社.
史泽艳.2005.中国东部地区作物生产力模拟对比研究(硕士学位论文).北京:北京师范大学.
王爱华.2004.马铃薯主要农艺性状的动态模拟研究(硕士学位论文).杭州:浙江大学.
王改玲,王青杵.2014.晋北黄土丘陵区不同人工植被对土壤质量的影响.生态学杂志,33(6):1487-1491.
王晓煜,杨晓光,孙爽,等.2015.气候变化背景下东北三省主要粮食作物产量潜力及资源利用效率比较.应用生态学报,26(10):3091-3102.
王秀芬,杨艳昭,尤飞.2012.黑龙江省气候变化及其对玉米生产潜力的影响.干旱地区农业研究,35(5):25-29.
王宗明,张柏,张树清,等.2005.松嫩平原农业气候生产潜力及自然资源利用率研究.中国农业气象,26(1):1-6.
翁笃鸣.1997.中国辐射气候.北京:气象出版社.
武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.2009.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析.生态环境学报,18(2):567-571.
谢万银,郭小芹,陆登荣,等.2015.陇中黄土高原气候生产潜力时空变化及水热因子驱动分析.干旱气象,33(5):861-866.
闫冠华,李巧萍,吕冬红.2008.中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特征及未来趋势.大气科学学报,31(5):671-678.
姚筠,许莹,马晓群.2017.淮河流域降水变化对主要农作物气候生产潜力的限制.资源科学,39(3):490-500.
姚玉壁,李耀辉,王毅荣,等.2005.黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应.干旱地区农业研究,23(2):202-208.
姚玉璧,杨金虎,肖国举,等.2018.气候变暖对西北雨养农业及农业生态影响研究进展.生态学杂志,37(7):2170-2179.
尹海霞,张勃,张建香,等.2013.甘肃省河东地区春玉米气候因子及气候生产潜力时空变化.生态学杂志,32(6):1504-1510.
袁彬,郭建平,冶明珠,等.2012.气候变化下东北春玉米品种熟型分布格局及其气候生产潜力.科学通报,57(14):1252-1262.
张强,杨贤为,黄朝迎.1995.近30年气候变化对黄土高原地区玉米生产潜力的影响.中国农业气象,16(6):19-23.
张悦,邸万通,王晶晶,等.2017.北方农牧交错带间套作资源利用的研究进展.生态学杂志,36(9):2623-2632.
张莉秋,张红,李皎,等.2016.晋北沙漠化地区1980-2014年的气候变化.中国沙漠,36(4):1116-1125.
张耀耀,刘建刚,杨萌,等.2015.气候变化对作物生产潜力的影响研究进展.农学学报,5(1):119-123.
赵俊芳,郭建平,邬定容,等.2011.2011-2050年黄淮海冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力评价.应用生态学报,22(12):3189-3195.
中国农业百科全书总编辑委员会农业气象卷编辑委员会,中国农业百科全书编辑部.1986.中国农业百科全书(农业气象卷).北京:农业出版社.
周广胜,何奇瑾,汲玉河.2016.适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展.应用气象学报,27(5):527-533.
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