城市天然气管网火灾定量风险分析系统研究与实现
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摘要
随着城市天然气管网大面积铺设和投入使用,管线的安全风险问题日益突出。相关天然气泄漏、火灾、爆炸等事故对民众财产和人身安全产生了严重威胁。针对这一问题,基于GIS技术提出了一套燃气管网定量风险分析模型,结合燃气泄漏引发建筑物火灾的特殊背景下,提出适用的城市火灾蔓延模型,借助C#编程与ArcGIS Engine平台,开发一套城市天然气管网火灾定量风险分析系统。试验结果表明,本文系统有效地预测事故可能发生区域以及事故影响区域,并对发生火灾概率较大的区域实现蔓延模拟,从而预先对存在事故隐患的区域进行重点风险评价、安全教育乃至整个城市的二次规划和重建,有效抵御事故的发生,防患于未然。
With the increasing use and complexity of urban natural gas pipelines, the increase in safety risks such as leaks, fires, and explosins has had a serious impact on people's property and personal safety. To solve this problem, this paper proposed a set of models for quantitative risk analysis on urban gas pipelines, and designed a suitable fire-spread model for the building fire caused by gas leakage. A quantitative risks analysis system was developed using Visual C# and ArcGIS Engine. Results of simulation experiments indicated that this system could effectively predict the sites of accidents and evaluate the risks. Safety education for people in places under high risk of fire could be carried out and city may need to be redesigned and reconstructed to avoid fire accidents caused by urban nature gas pipelines.
With the increasing use and complexity of urban natural gas pipelines, the increase in safety risks such as leaks, fires, and explosins has had a serious impact on people's property and personal safety. To solve this problem, this paper proposed a set of models for quantitative risk analysis on urban gas pipelines, and designed a suitable fire-spread model for the building fire caused by gas leakage. A quantitative risks analysis system was developed using Visual C# and ArcGIS Engine. Results of simulation experiments indicated that this system could effectively predict the sites of accidents and evaluate the risks. Safety education for people in places under high risk of fire could be carried out and city may need to be redesigned and reconstructed to avoid fire accidents caused by urban nature gas pipelines.
引文
[1]韩朱旸,翁文国.燃气管网定量风险分析方法综述[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(7):154-164.
[2]Muhlbauer W.Pipeline Risk Management Manual:Ideas,Techniques,and Resources[M].Houston:Gulf Professional Publishing,2004.
[3]Yin Y,Lin G.Study on Analysis of the Consequence of City Gas Fire Accident[C]//Advanced Management Science(ICAMS),2010 IEEE International Conference on.IEEE,2010,3:494-496.
[4]Ma Li,Cheng L,Li M.Quantitative Risk Analysis of Urban Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Using Geographical Information Systems[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2013,26(6):1 183-1 192.
[5]潘家华.油气管道的风险分析[J].油气运输,1995,14(3):11-15.
[6]中国安全生产科学研究院危险化学品安全技术研究所.CASST-QRA重大危险源区域定量风险评价软件V1.0[P].中国.2007SR09261,2008.
[7]Grant C,Pagni P.Fire Safety Science:Proceedings of the First International Symposium[M].Boca Raton:CRCPress,1986.
[8]Hamada M.On Fire Spreading Velocity in Disasters[M].Tokyo:Sagami Shobo,1951.
[9]黄维章,张锁春,雷光耀,等.城市火灾蔓延的数学模型和计算机模拟[J].计算物理,1993,1(1):9-19.
[10]Himoto K,Tanaka T.A Preliminary Model for Urban Fire Spread-building Fire Behavior Under the Influence of External Heat and Wind[C]//Thirteenth Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety.2000,2:309-319.
[11]Jo Y,Ahn B.Analysis of Hazard Areas Associated with High-pressure Natural-gas Pipelines[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2002,15(3):179-188.
[12]OGP(International Association of Oil&Gas Producers).Risk Assessment Data Directory:Major Accidents.2010a.Report No.434-17.
[13]OGP(International Association of Oil&Gas Producers).Risk Assessment Data Directory:Vulnerability of Humans.2010b.Report No.434-14.1.
[14]Zhao S.Gis FFE-an Integrated Software System for the Dynamic Simulation of Fires Following an Earthquake Based on GIS[J].Fire Safety Journal,2010,45(2):83-97.
[15]Himoto K,Tanaka T.A physically-based Model for Urban Fire Spread[C]//First Safety Science-Proceedings of the Seven International l Symposium.2002:129-140.
[16]Himoto K,Tanaka T.Development and Validation of a Physics-based Urban Fire Spread Model[J].Fire Safety Journal,2008,43(7):477-494.
[17]Yokoi S.Temperature Distribution in the Downwind of a Line Fire[J].Disaster Research,Non-life Insurance Rating Organization of Japan,1970,7:151-159.
[2]Muhlbauer W.Pipeline Risk Management Manual:Ideas,Techniques,and Resources[M].Houston:Gulf Professional Publishing,2004.
[3]Yin Y,Lin G.Study on Analysis of the Consequence of City Gas Fire Accident[C]//Advanced Management Science(ICAMS),2010 IEEE International Conference on.IEEE,2010,3:494-496.
[4]Ma Li,Cheng L,Li M.Quantitative Risk Analysis of Urban Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Using Geographical Information Systems[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2013,26(6):1 183-1 192.
[5]潘家华.油气管道的风险分析[J].油气运输,1995,14(3):11-15.
[6]中国安全生产科学研究院危险化学品安全技术研究所.CASST-QRA重大危险源区域定量风险评价软件V1.0[P].中国.2007SR09261,2008.
[7]Grant C,Pagni P.Fire Safety Science:Proceedings of the First International Symposium[M].Boca Raton:CRCPress,1986.
[8]Hamada M.On Fire Spreading Velocity in Disasters[M].Tokyo:Sagami Shobo,1951.
[9]黄维章,张锁春,雷光耀,等.城市火灾蔓延的数学模型和计算机模拟[J].计算物理,1993,1(1):9-19.
[10]Himoto K,Tanaka T.A Preliminary Model for Urban Fire Spread-building Fire Behavior Under the Influence of External Heat and Wind[C]//Thirteenth Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Fire Research and Safety.2000,2:309-319.
[11]Jo Y,Ahn B.Analysis of Hazard Areas Associated with High-pressure Natural-gas Pipelines[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2002,15(3):179-188.
[12]OGP(International Association of Oil&Gas Producers).Risk Assessment Data Directory:Major Accidents.2010a.Report No.434-17.
[13]OGP(International Association of Oil&Gas Producers).Risk Assessment Data Directory:Vulnerability of Humans.2010b.Report No.434-14.1.
[14]Zhao S.Gis FFE-an Integrated Software System for the Dynamic Simulation of Fires Following an Earthquake Based on GIS[J].Fire Safety Journal,2010,45(2):83-97.
[15]Himoto K,Tanaka T.A physically-based Model for Urban Fire Spread[C]//First Safety Science-Proceedings of the Seven International l Symposium.2002:129-140.
[16]Himoto K,Tanaka T.Development and Validation of a Physics-based Urban Fire Spread Model[J].Fire Safety Journal,2008,43(7):477-494.
[17]Yokoi S.Temperature Distribution in the Downwind of a Line Fire[J].Disaster Research,Non-life Insurance Rating Organization of Japan,1970,7:151-159.