基于用户相对权重的在线社交网络舆情传播控制模型
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摘要
在线社交网络(online social networks,OSN)中舆情传播干预时机的选择对网络舆情的管控具有重要意义.通过分析用户的网络地位、社会强化效应与用户感知价值等影响网络舆情传播控制的关键因素,以研究舆情管控的合理干预时机为目的,构建了基于用户相对权重的网络舆情传播控制模型.基于该模型,针对两类OSN开展仿真研究.研究发现,网络舆情传播与信息初始传播源的网络地位密切相关;在开放式OSN中,存在与干预时机选择关系密切的关键相变点;用户活跃度随社会强化效应强度的增大而下降,随干预时机的提前而降低,并存在有效干预时机区间;"悖民意"成本是干预时机选择的重要衡量指标.并据此,提出了相应现实干预时机选择的对策建议.
Choosing the right time to intervene public opinion dissemination is of great significance to the control of public opinion in online social networks(OSN).The key factors affecting the control of public opinion dissemination,such as user'network status,social strengthening effect and users' perception value,are analyzed.Aimed to identify the reasonable timing for intervention,a dissemination and control model of public opinion based on users' relative weight is constructed.Based on this model,simulation researches are carried out in two types of OSN.The results show that public opinion dissemination is closely related to the initial disseminator' network status; there exits a key phase transition point,which is related to timing of intervention in open OSN; users',activity decreases with the increase of the social strengthening effect's intensity,also decreases with the advance of intervention,and there exits an effective interval for intervention;the cost of "contrary to popular will" should be an important index for timing of intervention.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures for choosing the right time to intervene in reality axe proposed.
Choosing the right time to intervene public opinion dissemination is of great significance to the control of public opinion in online social networks(OSN).The key factors affecting the control of public opinion dissemination,such as user'network status,social strengthening effect and users' perception value,are analyzed.Aimed to identify the reasonable timing for intervention,a dissemination and control model of public opinion based on users' relative weight is constructed.Based on this model,simulation researches are carried out in two types of OSN.The results show that public opinion dissemination is closely related to the initial disseminator' network status; there exits a key phase transition point,which is related to timing of intervention in open OSN; users',activity decreases with the increase of the social strengthening effect's intensity,also decreases with the advance of intervention,and there exits an effective interval for intervention;the cost of "contrary to popular will" should be an important index for timing of intervention.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures for choosing the right time to intervene in reality axe proposed.
引文
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[24]Wang S W,Huang C Y,Sun C T.Modeling self-perception agents in an opinion dynamics propagation society[J].Simulation,2014,90(3):238-248.
[25]Gleeson J,O'Sullivan K,Banos R,et al.Effects of network structure,competition and memory time on social spreading phenomena[J].Physical Review X,2016,6(2):021019.
[26]Zhou J,Liu Z,Li B.Influence of network structure on rumor propagation[J].Physics Letters A,2007,368:458-463.
[27]王新华,黄和,于灏,等.新媒体视域下个体投资用户的信息获取行为研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(9):48-56.Wang X H,Huang H,Yu H,et al.Research on information acquisition behavior of individual investment users in the view of new media[J].Journal of Modern Information,2018,38(9):48-56.
[28]蔡淑琴,袁乾,周鹏.企业响应下负面口碑线性阈值传播模型研究[J].系统工程学报,2017,32(2):145-155.Cai S Q,Yuan Q,Zhou P.Research on liner threshold diffusion model for negative word-of-mouth under enterprise response[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2017,32(2):145-155.
[29]Dey P,Ganguly M,Sengupta P,et al.Small world network formation and characterization of sports Network[C]//Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Frontiers in Intelligent Computing:Theory and Applications,2017,515:619-627.
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[31]Bauer F,Lizier J T.Identifying influential spreaders and efficiently estimating infection numbers in epidemic models:A walk counting approach[J].Europhys Letter,2012,99(6):367-372.
[32]Wang S,Du Y,Deng Y.A new measure of identifying influential nodes:Efficiency centrality[J].Communications in Nonlinear Science Numerical Simulation,2017,47:151-163.
[33]洪巍,李青,吴林海.考虑信息真伪的食品安全网络舆情传播仿真与管理对策研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(12):3253-3269.Hong W,Li Q Wu L H.Food safety internet public opinion transmission simulation and management countermeasures considering information authenticity[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2017,37(12):3253-3269.
[34]Wu J,Zheng M,Zhang Z,et al.A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks[J].Chaos:An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science,2018,28(3):033113.
[35]王治莹,李勇建.政府干预下突发事件舆情传播规律与控制决策[J].管理科学学报,2017,20(2):43-52.Wang Z Y,Li Y J.Propagation law and coping strategies for public opinions in emergency with the consideration of the government intervention[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2017,20(2):43-52.
[36]Zhu L,Zhao H,Wang H.Complex dynamic behavior of a rumor propagation model with spatial-temporal diffusion terms[J].Information Sciences,2016,349-350:119-136.
[37]任建超,韩青.基于食品安全异质性的信息扩散过程研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(11):2833-2843.Ren J C,Han Q.The diffusion process of food safety information based on heterogeneity of food safety incidents[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2017,37(11):2833-2843.
[38]Ruegg J,Gries C,Bond-Lamberty B,et al.Completing the data life cycle:Using information management in macrosystems ecology research[J].Frontiers in Ecology&the Environment,2016,12(1):24-30.
[39]Wieland M,Pittore M.A spatio-temporal building exposure database and information life-cycle management solution[J].ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information,2017,6(4):1-20.
[40]兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月,等.网络舆情传播阶段精细化建模与仿真研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(1):76-86.Lan Y X,Xia Y X,Liu B Y,et al.The research on propagation phase accurate model and simulation of network public opinion[J].Journal of Modern Information,2018,38(1):76-86.
[41]王家坤,王新华.基于对冲作用的社交网络中口碑传播模型及控制策略研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(10):99-107.Wang J K,Wang X H.Research on word-of-mouth propagation model and control strategy in social network based on hedging effect[J].Journal of Modern Information,2018,38(10):99-107.
[42]周冬梅,陈婷,赵闻文.众筹平台的双层网络信息传播模型研究[J]·电子科技大学学报,2018,47(1):132-138.Zhou D M,Chen T,Zhao W W.Research on information spreading model on coupled networks of crowdfunding platform[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2018,47(1):132-138.
[43]Zhao N,Cui X.Impact of individual interest shift on information dissemination in modular networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2017,466:232-242.
[44]Ababou M,Vandewalle N,Moussa N,et al.Epidemic spreading in a finite-precision BA model[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2011,390(20):3573-3578.
[2]Zhang L,Wang F,Liu J.Mobile instant video clip sharing with screen scrolling:Measurement and enhancement[J].IEEE Transactions on Multimedia,2018,20(8):2022-2034.
[3]Pastor-Satorras R,Vespignani A.Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2001,63(2):066117.
[4]Granell G,Gomez S,Arenas A.Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks[J].Physical Review Letters,2013,111(12):128701.
[5]Moreno Y,Nekovee M,Pacheco A F.Dynamics of rumor spreading in complex networks[J].Physical Review E:Statistical Nonlinear&Soft Matter Physics,2004,69(2):066130.
[6]Zhao L,Wang J,Wang R.Immunization against the spread of rumors in homogenous networks[J].Plos ONE,2015,10(5):1-17.
[7]Zanette D H.Dynamics of rumor propagation in small-world networks[J].Physical Review E,2002,65(4):041908.
[8]Pastor-Satorras R,Vespignani A.Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks[J].Physical Review Letters,2001,86(14):3200-3203.
[9]Zhang L,Su C,Jin Y,et al.Cross-network dissemination model of public opinion in coupled networks[J].Information Sciences,2018,451-452:240-252.
[10]胡珑瑛,董靖巍.网络舆情演进过程参与主体策略行为仿真和政府引导[J].中国软科学,2016(10):50-61.Hu L Y,Dong J W.The participators behavior simulation and the government guidance in the process of Web public opinion evolution[J].China Soft Science,2016(10):50-61.
[11]Clemente M,Roulet T J.Public opinion as a source of deinstitutionalization:A'spiral of silence'approach[J].Academy of Management Journal,2015,40(1):96-114.
[12]Mutz D C,Young L.Communication and public opinion plus ca change?[J].Public opinion Quarterly,2011,75(75):1018-1044.
[13]陈波,于泠,刘君亭,等.泛在媒体环境的网络舆情传播控制模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(11):2140-2150.Chen B,Yu L,Liu J T,et al.Dissemination and control code of internet public opinion in the ubiquitous mediaenvironments[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2011,31(11):2140-2150.
[14]Qiu W,Wang Y,Yu J.A game theoretical model of information dissemination in social networks[J].International Conference on Complex Systems,2013,229(5):1-6.
[15]Zinoviev D,Duong V,Zhang H.A game theoretical approach to modeling information dissemination in social networks[C]//Proceedings of the 14th World Multi-Conference on Systemics,Cybernetics and Informatics.Orlando,USA:IEEE,2010,1:407-412.
[16]韩少春,刘云,张彦超,等.基于动态演化博弈论的舆论传播羊群效应[J].系统工程学报,2011,26(2):275-281.Han S C,Liu Y,Zhang Y C,et al.Herd instinct opinion based on dynamic evolutionary game theory[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2011,26(2):275-281.
[17]王金龙,刘方爱,朱振方.一种基于用户相对权重的在线社交网络信息传播模型[J].物理学报,2015,64(5):050501.Wang J L,Liu F A,Zhu Z F.An information spreading model based on relative weight in social network[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2015,64(5):050501.
[18]王辉,韩江洪,邓林.等.基于移动社交网络的谣言传播动力学研究[J].物理学报,2013,62(11):110505.Wang H,Han J H,Deng L,et al.Dynamics of rumor spreading in mobile social networks[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2013,62(11):110505.
[19]Grabowski A,Kosinski R A.Ising-based model of opinion formation in a complex network of interpersonal interactions[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2006,361(2):651-664.
[20]Deffuant G,Neau D,Amblard F.Mixing beliefs among interacting agents[J].Advances in Complex Systems,2000,3(4):87-98.
[21]张耀峰,肖人彬.基于元胞自动机的网络群体事件舆论同步的涌现机制[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(10):2600-2608.Zhang Y F,Xiao R B.Emergence mechanism of consensus synchronization in internet collective behavior based on cellular automata[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(10):2600-2608.
[22]Chowdhury N,Morarescu I C,Martin S,et al.Continuous opinions and discrete actions in social networks:A multi-agent system approach[C]//2016 IEEE 55th Conference on Decision and Control(CDC),2016.DOI:10.1109/CDC.2016.7798516.
[23]Chen T,Lin J.A novel model for the evolution of online public based on fuzzy cellular automat rules in directed world network[J].Applied Mathematics&Information Sciences,2013,7(6):2335-2343.
[24]Wang S W,Huang C Y,Sun C T.Modeling self-perception agents in an opinion dynamics propagation society[J].Simulation,2014,90(3):238-248.
[25]Gleeson J,O'Sullivan K,Banos R,et al.Effects of network structure,competition and memory time on social spreading phenomena[J].Physical Review X,2016,6(2):021019.
[26]Zhou J,Liu Z,Li B.Influence of network structure on rumor propagation[J].Physics Letters A,2007,368:458-463.
[27]王新华,黄和,于灏,等.新媒体视域下个体投资用户的信息获取行为研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(9):48-56.Wang X H,Huang H,Yu H,et al.Research on information acquisition behavior of individual investment users in the view of new media[J].Journal of Modern Information,2018,38(9):48-56.
[28]蔡淑琴,袁乾,周鹏.企业响应下负面口碑线性阈值传播模型研究[J].系统工程学报,2017,32(2):145-155.Cai S Q,Yuan Q,Zhou P.Research on liner threshold diffusion model for negative word-of-mouth under enterprise response[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2017,32(2):145-155.
[29]Dey P,Ganguly M,Sengupta P,et al.Small world network formation and characterization of sports Network[C]//Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Frontiers in Intelligent Computing:Theory and Applications,2017,515:619-627.
[30]Watts D J,Strogatz S H.Collective dynamics of“small-world”networks[J].Nature,1998,393(6684):440-442.
[31]Bauer F,Lizier J T.Identifying influential spreaders and efficiently estimating infection numbers in epidemic models:A walk counting approach[J].Europhys Letter,2012,99(6):367-372.
[32]Wang S,Du Y,Deng Y.A new measure of identifying influential nodes:Efficiency centrality[J].Communications in Nonlinear Science Numerical Simulation,2017,47:151-163.
[33]洪巍,李青,吴林海.考虑信息真伪的食品安全网络舆情传播仿真与管理对策研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(12):3253-3269.Hong W,Li Q Wu L H.Food safety internet public opinion transmission simulation and management countermeasures considering information authenticity[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2017,37(12):3253-3269.
[34]Wu J,Zheng M,Zhang Z,et al.A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks[J].Chaos:An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science,2018,28(3):033113.
[35]王治莹,李勇建.政府干预下突发事件舆情传播规律与控制决策[J].管理科学学报,2017,20(2):43-52.Wang Z Y,Li Y J.Propagation law and coping strategies for public opinions in emergency with the consideration of the government intervention[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2017,20(2):43-52.
[36]Zhu L,Zhao H,Wang H.Complex dynamic behavior of a rumor propagation model with spatial-temporal diffusion terms[J].Information Sciences,2016,349-350:119-136.
[37]任建超,韩青.基于食品安全异质性的信息扩散过程研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(11):2833-2843.Ren J C,Han Q.The diffusion process of food safety information based on heterogeneity of food safety incidents[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2017,37(11):2833-2843.
[38]Ruegg J,Gries C,Bond-Lamberty B,et al.Completing the data life cycle:Using information management in macrosystems ecology research[J].Frontiers in Ecology&the Environment,2016,12(1):24-30.
[39]Wieland M,Pittore M.A spatio-temporal building exposure database and information life-cycle management solution[J].ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information,2017,6(4):1-20.
[40]兰月新,夏一雪,刘冰月,等.网络舆情传播阶段精细化建模与仿真研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(1):76-86.Lan Y X,Xia Y X,Liu B Y,et al.The research on propagation phase accurate model and simulation of network public opinion[J].Journal of Modern Information,2018,38(1):76-86.
[41]王家坤,王新华.基于对冲作用的社交网络中口碑传播模型及控制策略研究[J].现代情报,2018,38(10):99-107.Wang J K,Wang X H.Research on word-of-mouth propagation model and control strategy in social network based on hedging effect[J].Journal of Modern Information,2018,38(10):99-107.
[42]周冬梅,陈婷,赵闻文.众筹平台的双层网络信息传播模型研究[J]·电子科技大学学报,2018,47(1):132-138.Zhou D M,Chen T,Zhao W W.Research on information spreading model on coupled networks of crowdfunding platform[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2018,47(1):132-138.
[43]Zhao N,Cui X.Impact of individual interest shift on information dissemination in modular networks[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2017,466:232-242.
[44]Ababou M,Vandewalle N,Moussa N,et al.Epidemic spreading in a finite-precision BA model[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2011,390(20):3573-3578.