基于雷达基数据的风暴单体跟踪与预报
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摘要
多普勒雷达基数据对风暴单体的跟踪及预报具有十分重要的意义。针对雷达监测预报的原理和特点,建设性地提出了一种跟踪和预报方法。根据"体扫间隔,特征相似,近距离优先"三个匹配准则来匹配两时刻的风暴单体,再利用加权最小二乘法对风暴单体在下一时刻的位置进行预报。通过对天津市2005~2011年间74个天气过程的实验和评估,结果表明:该方法的可预报单体数更多,单体平均预报误差更小,能够更好地实现风暴单体的跟踪及预报。
It is of great significance to track and forecast storm cell based on Doppler radar raw data. In view of the principle and characteristics of radar monitoring and prediction,a method of storm cell tracking and forecasting is constractively given. According to three matching criterions of"body scanning interval,similar characteristics,close first",it can match the two moments before and after the storm cell. Weighted least squares method is used to forecast the position of the storm cell in the next moment. Through experiment and evaluation of 74 weather process of Tianjin in 2005~ 2011,evaluation results show that this method can forecast more storm cell,average forecasting error of storm cell is more smaller,and can achieve better tracking and forecasting of storm cell.
It is of great significance to track and forecast storm cell based on Doppler radar raw data. In view of the principle and characteristics of radar monitoring and prediction,a method of storm cell tracking and forecasting is constractively given. According to three matching criterions of"body scanning interval,similar characteristics,close first",it can match the two moments before and after the storm cell. Weighted least squares method is used to forecast the position of the storm cell in the next moment. Through experiment and evaluation of 74 weather process of Tianjin in 2005~ 2011,evaluation results show that this method can forecast more storm cell,average forecasting error of storm cell is more smaller,and can achieve better tracking and forecasting of storm cell.
引文
[1]愈小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):311-337.
[2]路志英,刘海,贾惠珍,等.基于雷达反射率图像特征的冰雹暴雨识别[J].物理学报,2014,63(18):201-212.
[3]Han L,Fu S X,Zhao L F,et al.3D convective storm identification,tracking,and forecasting—An enhanced TITAN algorithm[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technolgy,2009,26(4):719-732.
[4]Du J H,Wu S H.Research on numerical weather prediction based on Doppler raw radar data and cloud mode[C]∥International Conference on Computer Science and Information Technology,Kunming,2014:507-514.
[5]贾小勇,徐传胜,白欣.最小二乘法的创立及其思想方法[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2006,36(3):507-511.
[6]王芬,李腹广,张辉.风暴单体识别与跟踪(SCIT)算法评估[J].气象,2010,36(12):128-133.
[7]苍桂华,岳建平.基于加权最小二乘法的点云平面拟合[J].激光技术,2014,38(3):156-161.
[8]姜德生,高翩,张翠,等.基于最小二乘法的光纤光栅Bragg波长直线拟合[J].传感器与微系统,2006,25(6):25-27.
[9]杨吉,郑媛媛,夏文梅,等.雷达拼图资料上中尺度对流系统的跟踪和预报[J].气象,2015,41(6):738-744.
[2]路志英,刘海,贾惠珍,等.基于雷达反射率图像特征的冰雹暴雨识别[J].物理学报,2014,63(18):201-212.
[3]Han L,Fu S X,Zhao L F,et al.3D convective storm identification,tracking,and forecasting—An enhanced TITAN algorithm[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technolgy,2009,26(4):719-732.
[4]Du J H,Wu S H.Research on numerical weather prediction based on Doppler raw radar data and cloud mode[C]∥International Conference on Computer Science and Information Technology,Kunming,2014:507-514.
[5]贾小勇,徐传胜,白欣.最小二乘法的创立及其思想方法[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2006,36(3):507-511.
[6]王芬,李腹广,张辉.风暴单体识别与跟踪(SCIT)算法评估[J].气象,2010,36(12):128-133.
[7]苍桂华,岳建平.基于加权最小二乘法的点云平面拟合[J].激光技术,2014,38(3):156-161.
[8]姜德生,高翩,张翠,等.基于最小二乘法的光纤光栅Bragg波长直线拟合[J].传感器与微系统,2006,25(6):25-27.
[9]杨吉,郑媛媛,夏文梅,等.雷达拼图资料上中尺度对流系统的跟踪和预报[J].气象,2015,41(6):738-744.
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