基于v/C比的高速公路基本路段车辆碳排放预测模型研究
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摘要
为揭示高速公路基本路段交通流饱和度v/C比对于车辆二氧化碳排放(简称碳排放)水平的影响规律,以G3001西安绕城高速公路和G65W延西高速公路(西安—铜川段)为试验道路,以交通流数据采集以及实车油耗测试为基础,选用IPCC碳排放核算方法,将油耗数据转换成碳排放数据,采用SPSS回归分析的方法,针对高速公路基本路段v/C∈[0.15,1.25]的情况,分别建立适用于载重汽车和小客车的v/C比与碳排放率关系模型,并对模型预测结果的精确性进行了检验。研究表明,载重汽车和小客车的碳排放率都随着v/C比的增大做二次函数形式的变化;当高速公路基本路段v/C比为0.44和0.45时,载重汽车和小客车的碳排放率达到最低水平,分别为67.8kg/100km和17.3kg/100km;当高速公路基本路段v/C比超过0.96和0.87时,2种车型的碳排放水平将有可能对温室效应产生显著的负面影响;从节约车辆燃油、降低二氧化碳排放的角度出发,上述v/C比临界数值可以作为指导高速公路路段交通流控制、路段改扩建决策的参考指标。
In order to study influences of rules of v/C ratios in basic expressway sections on carbon dioxide emission(referred to as carbon emission)levels of vehicles,G3001Xi′an Loop Expressway and G65 W Yanxi Expressway(from Xi′an to Tongchuan)are selected as test sections.Based on data of traffic flows and actual fuel consumption of vehicles,IPCC carbon accounting method is used to convert data of fuel consumption into carbon emission.Through SPSS regression analysis,prediction models of carbon emission rate of trucks and passenger cars are established respectively,and used in basic expressway sections under v/C∈[0.15,1.25].The accuracies of the prediction models are verified.The results show that carbon emission rates of trucks and passenger cars both change in line with v/Cratios in forms of quadratic functions.When the v/Cratio of a specific basic expressway section is 0.44 and 0.45,the carbon emission rates reach the lowest levels(67.8kg/100 km for trucks and 17.3kg/100 km for passenger cars).When the v/Cratio of a specific basic expressway section is more than 0.96 and 0.87,it possibly has significant adverse impacts on greenhouse effect.For saving fuel and reducing carbon emissions,thresholds of v/Cratio mentioned above can be used as reference indicators for traffic control and decision-making of reconstruction and expansion of expressways.
In order to study influences of rules of v/C ratios in basic expressway sections on carbon dioxide emission(referred to as carbon emission)levels of vehicles,G3001Xi′an Loop Expressway and G65 W Yanxi Expressway(from Xi′an to Tongchuan)are selected as test sections.Based on data of traffic flows and actual fuel consumption of vehicles,IPCC carbon accounting method is used to convert data of fuel consumption into carbon emission.Through SPSS regression analysis,prediction models of carbon emission rate of trucks and passenger cars are established respectively,and used in basic expressway sections under v/C∈[0.15,1.25].The accuracies of the prediction models are verified.The results show that carbon emission rates of trucks and passenger cars both change in line with v/Cratios in forms of quadratic functions.When the v/Cratio of a specific basic expressway section is 0.44 and 0.45,the carbon emission rates reach the lowest levels(67.8kg/100 km for trucks and 17.3kg/100 km for passenger cars).When the v/Cratio of a specific basic expressway section is more than 0.96 and 0.87,it possibly has significant adverse impacts on greenhouse effect.For saving fuel and reducing carbon emissions,thresholds of v/Cratio mentioned above can be used as reference indicators for traffic control and decision-making of reconstruction and expansion of expressways.
引文
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[21]高新华.轿车燃油经济性开发的关键技术研究-以某款A级车为例[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2016.GAO Xinhua.Study on key technology of fuel economic development-one A-class sedan for example[D].Hefei:Hefei University of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
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[2]周红飞,张晓明,魏增超.考虑碳成本的城市交通拥挤定价模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2014,38(4):855-859.ZHOU Hongfei,ZHANG Xiaoming,WEIZengchao.Urban traffic congestion pricing considering the cost of carbon emissions[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science&Engineering),2014,38(4):855-859.(in Chinese)
[3]李玲.中国交通各部门CO2排放差异和影响因素研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2016.LI Ling.Study on the emission differences among China′s transport sectors and their influencing factors[D].Changsha:Hunan University,2016.(in Chinese)
[4]FRANCO V,KOUSOULIDOU M,MUNTEANM,et al.Road vehicle emission factors development:A review[J].Atmospheric Environment,2013(70):84-97.
[5]张诗青,王建伟,郑文龙.中国交通运输碳排放及影响因素时空差异分析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(12):4787-4797.ZHANG Shiqing,WANG Jianwei,ZHENG Wenlong.Spatio-temporal difference of transportation carbon emission and its influencing factors in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(12):4787-4797.(in Chinese)
[6]姚志良,王岐东,张英志,等.负载对实际道路重型柴油车排放的影响研究[J].环境污染与防治,2012,34(3):63-67.YAO Zhiliang,WANG Qidong,ZHANG Yingzhi,et al.The impact of load on emission from on-road heavy diesel vehicle[J].Environmental Pollution&Control,2012,34(3):63-67.(in Chinese)
[7]ZEGEYE S K,DE SCHUTTER B,HELLEN-DOORN J,et al.Integrated macroscopic traffic flow,emission,and fuel consumption model for control purposes[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2013(31):158-171.
[8]BEHRISCH M,ERDMANN J.Comparing emission and traffic flow models of different categories[C].Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems,Budapest:IEEE,2015.
[9]DE VLIEGER I,DE KEUKELEERE D,KRETZSCHMAR J G.Environmental effects of driving behaviour and congestion related to passenger cars[J].Atmospheric Environment,2000,34(27):4649-4655.
[10]BARTH M,BORIBOONSOMSIN K.Real-world carbon dioxide impacts of traffic congestion[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2008(2058):163-171.
[11]PANIS L I,BECKX C,BROEKX S,et al.PM,NOxand CO2emission reductions from speed management policies in Europe[J].Transport Policy,2011,18(1):32-37.
[12]PASQUALE C,PAPAMICHAIL I,RONCOLI C,et al.Two-class freeway traffic regulation to reduce congestion and emissions via nonlinear optimal control[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2015(55):85-99.
[13]雷银辉.高速公路低碳交通评估及预控技术研究[D].西安:长安大学,2015.LEI Yinhui.Research on low carbon traffic evaluation and pre-control technology of freeway[D].Xi′an:Chang′an University,2015.(in Chinese)
[14]靳秋思,张远景,宋国华,等.基于交通运行指数的速度分布聚类与排放测算[J].交通信息与安全,2016,34(6):15-21,76.JIN Qiusi,ZHANG Yuanjing,SONG Guohua,et al.A cluster analysis of speed distributions and emission estimation based on traffic performance index[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2016,34(6):15-21,76.(in Chinese)
[15]朱建全.基于路段交通流状态的车辆燃油消耗的测算与分析[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2017.ZHU Jianquan.Calculation and analysis of vehicle fuel consumption based on traffic flow conditions of road segment[D].Hefei:Hefei University of Technology,2017.(in Chinese)
[16]冯雨芹,冷军强,张亚平,等.城市道路路段燃油经济性评价模型[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(8):104-108.FENG Yuqin,LENG Junqiang,ZHANG Yaping,et al.Fuel economy model of urban roads[J].Journal of South China University of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2011,39(8):104-108.(in Chinese)
[17]EGGLESTON H S,BUENDIA L,MIWA K,et al.2006IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[M].Kanagawa:Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2006.
[18]SANCHEZ-CCOYLLO O R,YNOUE R Y,MAR-TINS L D,et al.Vehicular particulate matter emissions in road tunnels in Sao Paulo,Brazil[J].Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,2009,149(1-4):241-249.
[19]杜志刚,余昕宇,向一鸣,等.基于交通事故预防的高速公路隧道光环境优化研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2018,42(5):715-719.DU Zhigang,YU Xinyu,XIANG Yiming,et al.Research on light environment optimization of highway tunnel based on traffic accident prevention[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science&Engineering),2018,42(5):715-719.(in Chinese)
[20]孙文圃,许金良,景立竹,等.基于MOVES的高速公路纵坡段载重柴油车辆碳排放预测模型的研究[J].公路交通科技,2015,32(12):144-150.SUN Wenpu,XU Jinliang,JING Lizhu,et al.Study on carbon emission prediction model of heavyduty diesel vehicle in expressway longitudinal slope sections based on MOVES[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2015,32(12):144-150.(in Chinese)
[21]高新华.轿车燃油经济性开发的关键技术研究-以某款A级车为例[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2016.GAO Xinhua.Study on key technology of fuel economic development-one A-class sedan for example[D].Hefei:Hefei University of Technology,2016.(in Chinese)
[22]王璐婷.机动车怠速排放对社区大气环境的影响研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2016.WANG Luting.Study on the influence of idling emission on the atmospheric environment of the community[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2016.(in Chinese)
[23]王炜.公路交通流车速-流量实用关系模型[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2003(4):487-491.WANG Wei.Practical speed-flow relationship model of highway traffic-flow[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2003(4):487-491.(in Chinese)