经济集聚对雾霾污染影响的空间计量研究——以长江三角洲地区为例
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摘要
雾霾污染是困扰中国经济发展的重大民生与环境问题。基于改进产出密度模型,运用地统计和空间计量模型分析长三角城市2015～2017年雾霾污染空间格局和影响因素。研究发现:(1)雾霾污染存在季节性变化特征并且各城市雾霾污染状况逐渐好转。(2)雾霾污染具有显著的局域集聚特征和空间异质性,杭州、宁波和台州呈现低-低集聚特征,而滁州、扬州、镇江和泰州为高-高集聚型,污染区域集中于省界处,污染程度自西北向东南逐渐降低。雾霾污染存在显著的城际空间正相关和空间溢出效应,周边城市雾霾污染对本地区会产生负影响。(3)长三角城市人口集聚、研发投入、产业结构、工业烟粉尘排放及城市建设均对雾霾污染产生正向影响,对外开放、能源消耗以及降水等因素对雾霾污染产生负向影响;雾霾污染与经济增长之间不存在库兹涅茨曲线关系。经济集聚通过优化生产要素的空间分布与组合、共享治污基础设施等,形成雾霾污染抑制作用。
Air pollution caused by fog and haze is one of the key issues concerning people's livelihood and environment,which has plagued China 's economic development. In this research,the spatial pattern and influence factors of smog on air pollution in the Yangtze River Delta from 2015 to 2017 was empirically analyzed based on the improved output density model,statistical and spatial econometric models. The study found that:( 1) Smog pollution possessed the characteristic of seasonal variation in the Yangtze River Delta and the situation of air quality in the cities of this region has gradually improved.( 2) Smog pollution had the characteristics of significant local agglomeration and spatial heterogeneity. Hangzhou,Ningbo,and Taizhou presented the feature of low-level agglomeration,and Chuzhou,Yangzhou,Zhenjiang and Taizhou were high-level agglomeration. The polluted area has been concentrated at the provincial boundary,and the level of contamination has been gradually decreased from northwest to southeast. There was a significant intercity spatial positive correlation and spatial spillover effect of smog pollution,and the smog pollution in the surrounding areas has had a negative impact on this region.( 3) The population concentration,R&D investment,industrial structure,industrial smoke and dust emissions and urban construction in the Yangtze River Delta have had positive impacts on smog pollution,while the factors such as the opening-up,energy consumption and precipitation have had a negative impact on smog pollution. There was no Kuznets curve relationship between smog pollution and economic growth. By optimizing the spatial distribution and combination of production factors,and sharing pollution control infrastructure,etc.,economic agglomeration could have an inhibitory effect on smog pollution.
Air pollution caused by fog and haze is one of the key issues concerning people's livelihood and environment,which has plagued China 's economic development. In this research,the spatial pattern and influence factors of smog on air pollution in the Yangtze River Delta from 2015 to 2017 was empirically analyzed based on the improved output density model,statistical and spatial econometric models. The study found that:( 1) Smog pollution possessed the characteristic of seasonal variation in the Yangtze River Delta and the situation of air quality in the cities of this region has gradually improved.( 2) Smog pollution had the characteristics of significant local agglomeration and spatial heterogeneity. Hangzhou,Ningbo,and Taizhou presented the feature of low-level agglomeration,and Chuzhou,Yangzhou,Zhenjiang and Taizhou were high-level agglomeration. The polluted area has been concentrated at the provincial boundary,and the level of contamination has been gradually decreased from northwest to southeast. There was a significant intercity spatial positive correlation and spatial spillover effect of smog pollution,and the smog pollution in the surrounding areas has had a negative impact on this region.( 3) The population concentration,R&D investment,industrial structure,industrial smoke and dust emissions and urban construction in the Yangtze River Delta have had positive impacts on smog pollution,while the factors such as the opening-up,energy consumption and precipitation have had a negative impact on smog pollution. There was no Kuznets curve relationship between smog pollution and economic growth. By optimizing the spatial distribution and combination of production factors,and sharing pollution control infrastructure,etc.,economic agglomeration could have an inhibitory effect on smog pollution.
引文
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[14] KRUGMAN P. Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[15]刘晨跃,尚远红.雾霾污染程度的经济社会影响因素及其时空差异分析[J].经济与管理评论,2017,(1):75-82.LIU C Y, SHANG Y H. Analysis of economic and social influencing factors of haze pollution degree and its spatio-temporal difference[J]. Review of Economy and Management,2017,(1):75-82.
[16]陈安宁.空间计量学入门与GeoDa软件应用[M].浙江:浙江大学出版社,2014.CHEN A N. Introduction to spatial metrology and application of GeoDa[M]. Zhejiang:Zhejiang University Press,2014.
[2] LAMICHHANE D K,KIM H C,CHOI C M,et al. Lung cancer risk and residential exposure to air pollution:A Korean populationbased case-control study[J]. Yonsei Medical Journal,2017,58(6):1111-1118.
[3]赵晨曦,王云琦,王玉杰,等.北京地区冬春PM2. 5和PM10水平时空分布及其与气象条件的关系[J].环境科学,2014,35(2):418-427.ZHAO C X,WANG Y Q,WANG Y J,et al. Spatial and temporal distribution of PM2. 5and PM10in winter and spring in Beijing and their relationship with meteorological conditions[J].Environmental Science,2014,35(2):418-427.
[4]刘婉琪,任毅,丁黄艳.长江经济带雾霾污染的空间特征及影响因素研究[J].资源与环境,2017,33(10):1220-1226.LIU W Q,REN Y,DING H Y. Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of haze pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Resources and Environment,2017,33(10):1220-1226.
[5]毛婉柳,徐建华,卢德彬,等. 2015年长三角地区城市PM2. 5时空格局及影响因素分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(2):264-272.MAO W L,XU J H,LU D B,et al. Analysis of spatial and temporal patterns and influencing factors of PM2. 5in the Yangtze River Delta Region in 2015[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(2):264-272.
[6]张生玲,王雨涵,李跃,等.中国雾霾空间分布特征及影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(9):15-22.ZHANG S L,WANG Y H,LI Y,et al. Analysis on spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of fog and haze in China[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(9):15-22.
[7] CAI W J,LI K,LIAO H,et al. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,(7):257! 262.
[8] ZOU Y F,WANG Y H,ZHANG Y Z,et al. Arctic sea ice,Eurasia snow,and extreme winter haze in China[J]. Science Advances,2017,3(3):e1602751.
[9]郭春颖,施润和,周云云,等.基于遥感与地理探测器的长江三角洲空气污染风险因子分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(11):1805-1814.GUO C Y,SHI R H,ZHOU Y Y,et al. Analysis of air pollution risk factors in the Yangtze River Delta based on remote sensing and geographical detectors[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(11):1805-1814.
[10]马丽梅,张晓.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响[J].中国工业经济,2014,313(4):19-31.MA L M,ZHANG X. The spatial effect of haze pollution in China and the impact of economic and energy structure[J].China Industrial Economics,2014,313(4):19-31.
[11]严雅雪,齐绍洲.外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾(PM2. 5)污染的时空效应检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(4):68-77.YAN Y X,QI S J. The temporal and spatial effects of foreign direct investment on the haze pollution(PM2. 5)of Chinese cities[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment,2017,27(4):68-77.
[12] CICCONE A,HALL R. Productivity and the density of economic activity[J]. American Economic Review,1996,86(1):54-70.
[13] GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B. Economic growth and the environment[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-378.
[14] KRUGMAN P. Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[15]刘晨跃,尚远红.雾霾污染程度的经济社会影响因素及其时空差异分析[J].经济与管理评论,2017,(1):75-82.LIU C Y, SHANG Y H. Analysis of economic and social influencing factors of haze pollution degree and its spatio-temporal difference[J]. Review of Economy and Management,2017,(1):75-82.
[16]陈安宁.空间计量学入门与GeoDa软件应用[M].浙江:浙江大学出版社,2014.CHEN A N. Introduction to spatial metrology and application of GeoDa[M]. Zhejiang:Zhejiang University Press,2014.