金融开放是否加剧了雾霾污染
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摘要
基于卫星监测的地表PM2.5栅格数据,采用动态空间面板杜宾模型实证分析了金融开放对雾霾污染的影响效应及其影响机制。研究发现,短期内金融开放对雾霾污染的直接效应、间接效应和总效应显著为正,即金融开放程度越高,雾霾污染水平也越高。长期内金融开放有助于改善雾霾污染,且这种影响效应存在典型的阶段性特征。传导机制检验结果显示,规模效应、产业结构效应、技术效应和城市化效应的传导作用显著,而配置效应的传导路径并不成立。
Based on the PM2.5raster data monitored by satellite, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of financial openness on smog pollution and its mechanisms by using the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model. It is found that the direct, indirect and total effects of financial openness on smog pollution are significantly positive in the short term, that is, the higher the degree of financial openness is, the higher the level of smog pollution is. However, financial openness helps to aggravate smog pollution in the long term,which shows typical stage characteristics. The results of mechanism tests reveal that,the transmission mechanism only refers to scale effect, industrial structure effect, technological effect and urbanization effect, while the allocation effect is not valid.
Based on the PM2.5raster data monitored by satellite, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of financial openness on smog pollution and its mechanisms by using the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model. It is found that the direct, indirect and total effects of financial openness on smog pollution are significantly positive in the short term, that is, the higher the degree of financial openness is, the higher the level of smog pollution is. However, financial openness helps to aggravate smog pollution in the long term,which shows typical stage characteristics. The results of mechanism tests reveal that,the transmission mechanism only refers to scale effect, industrial structure effect, technological effect and urbanization effect, while the allocation effect is not valid.
引文
[1]陈雨露,罗煜.金融开放与经济增长:一个述评[J].管理世界,2007(4):138-147.
[2]Restuccia D,Rogerson R.Misallocation and Productivity[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2013,16(1):1-10.
[3]宋马林,金培振.地方保护、资源错配与环境福利绩效[J].经济研究,2016(12):47-61.
[4]逄淑梅,陈浪南.金融开放的经济增长效应的实证研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016(9):2177-2188.
[5]Carp L.Financial Globalization and Capital Flows Volatility Effects on Economic Growth[J]. Procedia Economics and Finance,2014,15:350-356.
[6]Bumann S,Hermes N,Lensink R. Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth:A Meta-analysis[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2013,33(1):255-281.
[7]马勇,王芳.金融开放、经济波动与金融波动[J].世界经济,2018(2):20-44.
[8]贵丽娟,胡乃红,邓敏.金融开放会加大发展中国家的经济波动吗?——基于宏观金融风险的分析[J].国际金融研究,2015(10):43-54.
[9]任力,朱东波.中国金融发展是绿色的吗?——兼论中国环境库兹涅茨曲线假说[J].经济学动态,2017(11):58-73.
[10]Tamazian A,Chousa J P,Vadlamannati K C.Does Higher Economic and Financial Development Lead to Environmental Degradation:Evidence from BRIC Countries[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(1):246-253.
[11]Salahuddin M,Gow J,Ozturk I.Is the Long-run Relationship between Economic Growth,Electricity Consumption,Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Financial Development in Gulf Cooperation Countries Robust?[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,51:317-326.
[12]Dogan E,Seker F. The Influence of Real Output,Renewable and Non-renewable Energy,Trade and Financial Development on Carbon Emissions in the Top Renewable Energy Countries[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,60:1074-1085.
[13]Ali S,Waqas H,Ahmad N.Analyzing the Dynamics of Energy Consumption,Liberalization,Financial Development,Poverty and Carbon Emissions in Pakistan[J]. Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Science,2015,5(4):166-183.
[14]Jalil A,Feridun M.The Impact of Growth,Energy and Financial Development on the Environment in China:A Cointegration Analysis[J].Energy Economics,2011,33(2):284-291.
[15]Zhang Y J. The Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emissions:An Empirical Analysis in China[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(4):2197-2203.
[16]严成樑,李涛,兰伟.金融发展、创新与二氧化碳排放[J].金融研究,2016(1):14-30.
[17]王勋,Johansson A.抑制与经济结构转型[J].经济研究,2013(1):54-67.
[18]易信,刘凤良.金融发展与产业结构转型——理论及基于跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(6):21-39.
[19]Jia R X.Pollution for Promotion[R].USCD:Working Paper,2014.
[20]陈创练,庄泽海,林玉婷.金融发展对工业行业资本配置效率的影响[J].中国工业经济,2016(11):22-38.
[21]Kose A,Prasad E S,Terrones M E.Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2009,28(4):554-580.
[22]Bonfiglioli A.Financial Integration,Productivity and Capital Accumulation[J].Journal of International Economics,2008,76(2):337-355.
[23]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业结构优化升级改进了生态效率了吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(4):40-59.
[24]Cho S H,Wu J,Boggess W J.Measuring Interactions among Urbanization,Land Use Regulations,and Public Finance[J].American Agricultural Economics Association,2003,85(4):988-999.
[25]刘航,孙早.城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩——基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(11):5-17.
[26]Yu J,Jong R D,Lee L F.Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects When Both n and T are Large[J].Journal of Econometrics,2008,146(1):118-134.
[27]Anselin L,Gallo J L.Interpolation of Air Quality Measures in Hedonic House Price Models:Spatial Aspects[J].Spatial Economic Analysis,2006,1(1):31-52.
[28]LeSage J P,Pace R K.Spatial Econometric Modeling of Origin-Destination Flows[J].Journal of Regional Science,2008,48(5):941-967.
[29]LeSage J P,Pace R K.Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M].Chapman&Hall CRC Press,2009.
[30]余泳泽.中国省际全要素生产率动态空间收敛性研究[J].世界经济,2015(10):30-55.
[31]Bekaert G,Harvey C R,Lundblad C.Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2005,77(1):3-55.
[32]Lane P R,Milesi-Ferretti G.The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970—2004[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,73(1):223-250.
[33]陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018(2):20-34.
[34]Ma Z,Hu X,Sayer A M,et al.Satellite-based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations:China,2004—2013[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2016,124(2):184-192.
[35]白俊红,卞元超.要素市场扭曲与中国创新生产的效率损失[J].中国工业经济,2016(11):39-55.
(1)依据发明专利、实用新型专利和外观设计专利三个类别中科技创新的含量,我们对其赋予的权重分别为0.5、0.3和0.2。
(2)本文核算人均受教育年限的公式为Hi=∑TnPin,其中,Tn表示第n种学历人口的受教育年数,Pin表示第i省区拥有第n种学历的人口数;n=1为小学,n=2为初中,n=3为高中,n=4为大学(包含本科和专科两种)。假定接受过小学教育的人口受教育年限为6年,接受过初中教育的人口受教育年限为9年,接受过高中教育的人口受教育年限为12年,接受过大学教育的人口受教育年限为16年。
(3)动态空间面板杜宾模型中,无论是基于地理空间维度还是社会经济维度,时间滞后系数均显著为正,说明雾霾污染物在时间上呈现出显著的“锁定”特征,前期的雾霾污染较为严重,则当期的污染水平也相对较高。空间滞后系数也显著为正,即雾霾污染在空间上存在关联性,如果本地区的污染水平较高,则与本地区存在关联的其他地区的雾霾污染水平也较高。时空滞后系数在1%的水平上显著为正,说明如果前期本地区的雾霾污染较为严重,则在当期与本地区存在关联地区的雾霾污染也相对较高。限于篇幅,这里未报告具体的估计结果,如有需要,可与作者联系。
(4)限于篇幅,这里未报告稳健性检验的结果。
(5)这里选择的生产函数形式为超越对数生产函数。
(6)为了降低多重共线性的影响,在技术效应和产业结构效应传导机制检验中,控制变量分别删去了技术创新水平和产业结构。
[2]Restuccia D,Rogerson R.Misallocation and Productivity[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2013,16(1):1-10.
[3]宋马林,金培振.地方保护、资源错配与环境福利绩效[J].经济研究,2016(12):47-61.
[4]逄淑梅,陈浪南.金融开放的经济增长效应的实证研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016(9):2177-2188.
[5]Carp L.Financial Globalization and Capital Flows Volatility Effects on Economic Growth[J]. Procedia Economics and Finance,2014,15:350-356.
[6]Bumann S,Hermes N,Lensink R. Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth:A Meta-analysis[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2013,33(1):255-281.
[7]马勇,王芳.金融开放、经济波动与金融波动[J].世界经济,2018(2):20-44.
[8]贵丽娟,胡乃红,邓敏.金融开放会加大发展中国家的经济波动吗?——基于宏观金融风险的分析[J].国际金融研究,2015(10):43-54.
[9]任力,朱东波.中国金融发展是绿色的吗?——兼论中国环境库兹涅茨曲线假说[J].经济学动态,2017(11):58-73.
[10]Tamazian A,Chousa J P,Vadlamannati K C.Does Higher Economic and Financial Development Lead to Environmental Degradation:Evidence from BRIC Countries[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(1):246-253.
[11]Salahuddin M,Gow J,Ozturk I.Is the Long-run Relationship between Economic Growth,Electricity Consumption,Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Financial Development in Gulf Cooperation Countries Robust?[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,51:317-326.
[12]Dogan E,Seker F. The Influence of Real Output,Renewable and Non-renewable Energy,Trade and Financial Development on Carbon Emissions in the Top Renewable Energy Countries[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,60:1074-1085.
[13]Ali S,Waqas H,Ahmad N.Analyzing the Dynamics of Energy Consumption,Liberalization,Financial Development,Poverty and Carbon Emissions in Pakistan[J]. Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Science,2015,5(4):166-183.
[14]Jalil A,Feridun M.The Impact of Growth,Energy and Financial Development on the Environment in China:A Cointegration Analysis[J].Energy Economics,2011,33(2):284-291.
[15]Zhang Y J. The Impact of Financial Development on Carbon Emissions:An Empirical Analysis in China[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(4):2197-2203.
[16]严成樑,李涛,兰伟.金融发展、创新与二氧化碳排放[J].金融研究,2016(1):14-30.
[17]王勋,Johansson A.抑制与经济结构转型[J].经济研究,2013(1):54-67.
[18]易信,刘凤良.金融发展与产业结构转型——理论及基于跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(6):21-39.
[19]Jia R X.Pollution for Promotion[R].USCD:Working Paper,2014.
[20]陈创练,庄泽海,林玉婷.金融发展对工业行业资本配置效率的影响[J].中国工业经济,2016(11):22-38.
[21]Kose A,Prasad E S,Terrones M E.Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2009,28(4):554-580.
[22]Bonfiglioli A.Financial Integration,Productivity and Capital Accumulation[J].Journal of International Economics,2008,76(2):337-355.
[23]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业结构优化升级改进了生态效率了吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(4):40-59.
[24]Cho S H,Wu J,Boggess W J.Measuring Interactions among Urbanization,Land Use Regulations,and Public Finance[J].American Agricultural Economics Association,2003,85(4):988-999.
[25]刘航,孙早.城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩——基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(11):5-17.
[26]Yu J,Jong R D,Lee L F.Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects When Both n and T are Large[J].Journal of Econometrics,2008,146(1):118-134.
[27]Anselin L,Gallo J L.Interpolation of Air Quality Measures in Hedonic House Price Models:Spatial Aspects[J].Spatial Economic Analysis,2006,1(1):31-52.
[28]LeSage J P,Pace R K.Spatial Econometric Modeling of Origin-Destination Flows[J].Journal of Regional Science,2008,48(5):941-967.
[29]LeSage J P,Pace R K.Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M].Chapman&Hall CRC Press,2009.
[30]余泳泽.中国省际全要素生产率动态空间收敛性研究[J].世界经济,2015(10):30-55.
[31]Bekaert G,Harvey C R,Lundblad C.Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2005,77(1):3-55.
[32]Lane P R,Milesi-Ferretti G.The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970—2004[J].Journal of International Economics,2007,73(1):223-250.
[33]陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018(2):20-34.
[34]Ma Z,Hu X,Sayer A M,et al.Satellite-based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations:China,2004—2013[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2016,124(2):184-192.
[35]白俊红,卞元超.要素市场扭曲与中国创新生产的效率损失[J].中国工业经济,2016(11):39-55.
(1)依据发明专利、实用新型专利和外观设计专利三个类别中科技创新的含量,我们对其赋予的权重分别为0.5、0.3和0.2。
(2)本文核算人均受教育年限的公式为Hi=∑TnPin,其中,Tn表示第n种学历人口的受教育年数,Pin表示第i省区拥有第n种学历的人口数;n=1为小学,n=2为初中,n=3为高中,n=4为大学(包含本科和专科两种)。假定接受过小学教育的人口受教育年限为6年,接受过初中教育的人口受教育年限为9年,接受过高中教育的人口受教育年限为12年,接受过大学教育的人口受教育年限为16年。
(3)动态空间面板杜宾模型中,无论是基于地理空间维度还是社会经济维度,时间滞后系数均显著为正,说明雾霾污染物在时间上呈现出显著的“锁定”特征,前期的雾霾污染较为严重,则当期的污染水平也相对较高。空间滞后系数也显著为正,即雾霾污染在空间上存在关联性,如果本地区的污染水平较高,则与本地区存在关联的其他地区的雾霾污染水平也较高。时空滞后系数在1%的水平上显著为正,说明如果前期本地区的雾霾污染较为严重,则在当期与本地区存在关联地区的雾霾污染也相对较高。限于篇幅,这里未报告具体的估计结果,如有需要,可与作者联系。
(4)限于篇幅,这里未报告稳健性检验的结果。
(5)这里选择的生产函数形式为超越对数生产函数。
(6)为了降低多重共线性的影响,在技术效应和产业结构效应传导机制检验中,控制变量分别删去了技术创新水平和产业结构。