浦东和虹桥机场一次大雾过程对比分析
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摘要
本文利用连续性和准确度较高的机场气象要素探测资料,在处理和解析民用航空气象报文和机场警报的基础上,分析了2016年1月27～表明:1)浦东和虹桥机场的预报与实况报文的绝对误差均呈现明显的正态分布,并且浦东比虹桥机场预报准确率偏高;2)浦东机场对于云高位于30～准确,提前量较高,但对于云高小于30 m和主导能见度400～600 m区间的机场警报内容与实况偏差较大,缺乏提前量;3)虹桥机场对于28日03:30～10:30能见度低于800 m的机场警报内容准确,提前量较高,但对于28日11:00主导能见度大于1 000 m的机场警报缺乏提前量。
Based on the processing and analysis of aviation weather reports and warnings, the weather service effects for a typical severe fog in Shanghai on January 27-28, 2016 are analysed by using the airport weather observing data with high continuity and accuracy. It shows that: 1) absolute errors of forecast and reality at Pudong and Hongqiao show obvious normal distribution, and the accuracy of Pudong is higher than Hongqiao; 2) for the Pudong airport warnings, the warning accuracy and leading time of cloud height ranging from 30 to 60 meters are higher than that of cloud height less than 30 meters, and there is a same result when comparing the visibility ranging from 600 to 800 meters with visibility ranging from 400 to 600 meters; 3) for the Hongqiao Airport warnings on January 28 th, the accuracy and leading time of visibility less than 800 meters between 03: 30 and 10: 30 are higher than visibility more than1 000 meters at 11: 00.
Based on the processing and analysis of aviation weather reports and warnings, the weather service effects for a typical severe fog in Shanghai on January 27-28, 2016 are analysed by using the airport weather observing data with high continuity and accuracy. It shows that: 1) absolute errors of forecast and reality at Pudong and Hongqiao show obvious normal distribution, and the accuracy of Pudong is higher than Hongqiao; 2) for the Pudong airport warnings, the warning accuracy and leading time of cloud height ranging from 30 to 60 meters are higher than that of cloud height less than 30 meters, and there is a same result when comparing the visibility ranging from 600 to 800 meters with visibility ranging from 400 to 600 meters; 3) for the Hongqiao Airport warnings on January 28 th, the accuracy and leading time of visibility less than 800 meters between 03: 30 and 10: 30 are higher than visibility more than1 000 meters at 11: 00.
引文
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[2]王大钧,陈列,丁裕国.近40年来中国降水量、雨日变化趋势及与全球温度变化的关系[J].热带气象学报,2006, 22(3):283-290.
[3] Wu D, Tie X X, Li C C, et al. An extremely low visibility event over the Guangzhou region:A case study[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2005, 39(35):6568-6570.