基于集对分析法的水利工程安全人因分析
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摘要
为解决水利工程施工安全评价过程中不确定性问题,建立基于集对分析法的水利工程施工安全评价模型。根据造成水利工程安全事故中的人因因素,建立适用于水利工程的人因分类系统模型,将水利工程不安全因素分为5类致因、23个人因因素,同时考虑到指标权重值确立过程中的不确定性,将区间数学理论引入指标权重确立过程,采用不确定型AHP法确定因素权重,结合集对分析法,通过计算集对势、联系度、不确定性和悲观势多角度评定水利工程施工安全现状及安全态势。以四川省某水电工程为例,应用表明:该水利工程安全状况良好,个别人因因素指标需要改进。
In order to solve the uncertainties in the process of safety evaluation for the hydraulic engineering projects, an evaluation model was established to evaluate the water conservancy projects based on the set pair analysis. According to the human factors in safety accidents during the water conservancy projects, a human factor classification analysis model was established and suitable for the water conservancy projects. This model divides unsafe factors in water conservancy projects into 5 types of causes and 23 human factors. Meanwhile, considering the uncertainty in the process of determining the index weight value, the interval mathematics theory was introduced into the confirming process of index weight. The uncertain type AHP method was used to determine the weight of the factors, and the set pair analysis was integrated. The set pair potential, connection degree, uncertainty and pessimistic potential were calculated to assess the current safety status and situation of hydraulic engineering projects in multi angles. Taking a water conservancy project in Sichuan Province as an example, the results showed that the safety of the project was in good condition except for few human factors indices remaining improvement.
In order to solve the uncertainties in the process of safety evaluation for the hydraulic engineering projects, an evaluation model was established to evaluate the water conservancy projects based on the set pair analysis. According to the human factors in safety accidents during the water conservancy projects, a human factor classification analysis model was established and suitable for the water conservancy projects. This model divides unsafe factors in water conservancy projects into 5 types of causes and 23 human factors. Meanwhile, considering the uncertainty in the process of determining the index weight value, the interval mathematics theory was introduced into the confirming process of index weight. The uncertain type AHP method was used to determine the weight of the factors, and the set pair analysis was integrated. The set pair potential, connection degree, uncertainty and pessimistic potential were calculated to assess the current safety status and situation of hydraulic engineering projects in multi angles. Taking a water conservancy project in Sichuan Province as an example, the results showed that the safety of the project was in good condition except for few human factors indices remaining improvement.
引文
[1] 宋四新,周剑岚,孙志禹,等.基于人为因素的工程施工安全风险分析与评价[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(6):248-252.
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[4]WACHTER JAN K , YORIO PATRICK L.A system of safety management practices and worker engagement for reducing and preventing accidents: An empirical and theoretical investigation[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2014,68: 117-130.
[5] ZHENG X Z , WANG F ,ZHOU J L. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory [J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017:1-16.
[6]王岗, 张儒学, 陈瑜,等. 基于多级可拓模型的水电工程施工环境安全评价[J].人民珠江, 2018,39(3):89-92.
[7]孙志禹,周剑岚,宋四新.基于贝叶斯理论的工程施工事故发生的人为因素分析[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(1):241-245.
[8]孙开畅,李权,尹志伟.水利工程高危作业人因评价体系中的认知图理论研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(12):128-132.
[9]郑霞忠,邵波,陈玲,等.基于Euclid理论的水电工程施工安全熵评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(6):38-43.
[10] SHAPPELL S A,WIEGMANN D A. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System-HFACS[J].American Libraries,2000(1): 20-46.
[11]陈述,余迪,郑霞忠.水电工程施工作业安全管理能力集对分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(12):56-61.
[12]李华,钟兴润.建筑安全管理绩效评价的集对分析研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2012,44(3):431-434.
[13]赵克勤.集对与集对分析——一种新的概念和一种新的系统分析方法 [C] //全国系统理论与区域规划研讨会论文集,1989.
[14]赵克勤. 基于集对分析的方案评价决策矩阵与应用[J]. 系统工程,1994(4): 67-72.
[15]李宗坤,李奇,沈凯,等.改进集对分析法在土石坝安全评价中的应用[J].人民黄河,2016,38(8):110-114,117.
[2] HUANG P, XUAN X D, QIU R, et al. Statistical analysis on production safety accidents of heavy casualties of the period 2001-2011 in China[J]. Procedia Engineering,2012,45:950-958.
[3]蔡明悦,龚声武,李夕兵.基于层次分析法的人因失误分析技术[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008(2):74-77.
[4]WACHTER JAN K , YORIO PATRICK L.A system of safety management practices and worker engagement for reducing and preventing accidents: An empirical and theoretical investigation[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2014,68: 117-130.
[5] ZHENG X Z , WANG F ,ZHOU J L. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory [J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017:1-16.
[6]王岗, 张儒学, 陈瑜,等. 基于多级可拓模型的水电工程施工环境安全评价[J].人民珠江, 2018,39(3):89-92.
[7]孙志禹,周剑岚,宋四新.基于贝叶斯理论的工程施工事故发生的人为因素分析[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(1):241-245.
[8]孙开畅,李权,尹志伟.水利工程高危作业人因评价体系中的认知图理论研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(12):128-132.
[9]郑霞忠,邵波,陈玲,等.基于Euclid理论的水电工程施工安全熵评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(6):38-43.
[10] SHAPPELL S A,WIEGMANN D A. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System-HFACS[J].American Libraries,2000(1): 20-46.
[11]陈述,余迪,郑霞忠.水电工程施工作业安全管理能力集对分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(12):56-61.
[12]李华,钟兴润.建筑安全管理绩效评价的集对分析研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2012,44(3):431-434.
[13]赵克勤.集对与集对分析——一种新的概念和一种新的系统分析方法 [C] //全国系统理论与区域规划研讨会论文集,1989.
[14]赵克勤. 基于集对分析的方案评价决策矩阵与应用[J]. 系统工程,1994(4): 67-72.
[15]李宗坤,李奇,沈凯,等.改进集对分析法在土石坝安全评价中的应用[J].人民黄河,2016,38(8):110-114,117.