基于正态随机模拟的武烈河环境健康风险评价
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摘要
为了解武烈河的水环境健康状况,基于US EPA健康风险评价方法,将正态模糊数和随机模拟方法进行耦合,建立基于正态随机模拟的环境健康风险综合评价模型,对武烈河干支流主要断面进行环境健康风险评价。评价结果表明:所有监测断面的成人健康风险值和儿童健康风险值均小于最大风险可接受水平(5.0×10~(-5)a~(-1)),处于可接受范围内,说明武烈河流域水环境健康风险状况良好;在已有研究工作的基础上,将三角模糊数改进为正态模糊数,考虑小概率事件发生的情况、选择99%概率所对应的风险值进行评价,使监测值模拟概率分布更加合理、预测结果概率分布更符合实际情况。
In order to investigate potential health risks that could result from exposures to Wulie River water,the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) health risk evaluation method coupled with the normal fuzzy number and stochastic simulation methods were used to build a stochastic simulation-normal fuzzy number model,and the model was then applied to several sites along the Wulie River.The results showed that health risk values for both adults and children at all monitoring sites were less than the acceptable levels,which indicates that water quality in the Wulie River was good during the sampling period.This model was further improved on the basis of existing research work,and this made the simulation probability distribution more reasonable and the prediction results more in line with the actual conditions at the site.
In order to investigate potential health risks that could result from exposures to Wulie River water,the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) health risk evaluation method coupled with the normal fuzzy number and stochastic simulation methods were used to build a stochastic simulation-normal fuzzy number model,and the model was then applied to several sites along the Wulie River.The results showed that health risk values for both adults and children at all monitoring sites were less than the acceptable levels,which indicates that water quality in the Wulie River was good during the sampling period.This model was further improved on the basis of existing research work,and this made the simulation probability distribution more reasonable and the prediction results more in line with the actual conditions at the site.
引文
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[9]李如忠,童芳,周爱佳,等.基于梯形模糊数的地表灰尘重金属污染健康风险评价模型[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1790-1798
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[14]陈光怡,丁莉,张寅,等.地下水开采可靠性的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型[J].安徽建筑工业学院学报(自然科学版),2009,17(6):84-87
[15]范清华,黎刚,王备新,等.太湖饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价[J].中国环境监测,2012,28(1):6-9
[16]金菊良,吴开亚,李如忠.水环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(11):1257-1261
[17]李宝山,张义平.蒙特卡洛法在软岩巷道支护中的应用[J].煤炭工程,2009(11):71-72
[18]袁希慧,王菲凤,张江山.基于区间数的饮用水源地水环境健康风险模糊评价[J].安全与环境学报,2011,11(4):129-133
[19]王月,安达,席北斗,等.基于三角随机模拟的生活垃圾填埋场地下水环境健康风险评价模型[J].环境工程技术学报,2016,6(1):49-56
[20]祝慧娜.基于区间数的水环境健康风险模糊综合评价[D].长沙:湖南大学,2009
[2]张东莱,王占升.武烈河流域水环境保护邹议[J].水科学与工程技术,2015(1):67-72
[3]管华,孙志琢.承德市武烈河纳污能力及限制排污总量分析[J].河北水利,2008(8):38-39
[4]白辉,赵翠平,陈岩,等.承德市武烈河水环境容量核算与减排效益评估研究[J].环境污染与防治,2015,37(3):31-34
[5]潘自强.环境危害评价:公众健康危害评价方法及其应用[M].北京:原子能出版社,1991
[6]张江山,许丽忠.环境公众健康危害评价方法与应用[J].上海环境科学,1995,14(8):1-3
[7]王大坤,李新建.健康危害评价在环境质量评价中的应用[J].环境污染与防治,1995,17(6):9-12
[8]曾光明,卓利,钟政林,等.水环境健康风险评价模型及其应用[J].水电能源科学,1997,15(4):29-34
[9]李如忠,童芳,周爱佳,等.基于梯形模糊数的地表灰尘重金属污染健康风险评价模型[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(8):1790-1798
[10]祝慧娜,袁兴中,曾光明,等.基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险模糊综合评价模型[J].环境科学学报,2009,29(7):1527-1533
[11]丁昊天,袁兴中,曾光明,等.基于模糊化的长株潭地区地下水重金属健康风险评价[J].环境科学研究,2009,22(11):1323-1328
[12]张建龙,解建仓,汪妮,等.再生水回用的改进健康风险评价及土壤承载能力研究[J].水土保持学报,2010,24(2):192-196
[13]李如忠,洪天求,金菊良.河流水质模糊风险评价模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2007,29(2):43-46
[14]陈光怡,丁莉,张寅,等.地下水开采可靠性的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型[J].安徽建筑工业学院学报(自然科学版),2009,17(6):84-87
[15]范清华,黎刚,王备新,等.太湖饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价[J].中国环境监测,2012,28(1):6-9
[16]金菊良,吴开亚,李如忠.水环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(11):1257-1261
[17]李宝山,张义平.蒙特卡洛法在软岩巷道支护中的应用[J].煤炭工程,2009(11):71-72
[18]袁希慧,王菲凤,张江山.基于区间数的饮用水源地水环境健康风险模糊评价[J].安全与环境学报,2011,11(4):129-133
[19]王月,安达,席北斗,等.基于三角随机模拟的生活垃圾填埋场地下水环境健康风险评价模型[J].环境工程技术学报,2016,6(1):49-56
[20]祝慧娜.基于区间数的水环境健康风险模糊综合评价[D].长沙:湖南大学,2009