1970-2015年汉江流域多尺度极端降水时空变化特征
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摘要
基于汉江流域63个气象站点逐日降水数据,辅以超阈值抽样、极端降水集中度(EPCD)和集中期(EPCP)、Mann-Kendall趋势检验等分析方法,对1970-2015年汉江流域多尺度极端降水变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)在旬尺度上,汉江流域EPCD较高,呈现出"西高东低"空间特征;汉江EPCP多年均值为七月下旬,空间呈现出"东部早,西部迟"的分布特征,不同流域表现出不同的年代变化规律。(2)在月尺度上,汉江流域极端降水各月分布不均,主要集中在5-9月,同年10月至次年4月为极端降水少发期。(3)在季尺度上,汉江流域极端降水夏季占比50%以上,但近期全流域夏季极端降水比例下降,其中上游主要为春季占比增加,中下游为秋季占比增加,说明夏季是影响汉江极端降水非均匀变化的关键季节。(4)在影响因素上,当东亚季风和南亚II区季风偏强时,汉江流域夏季极端降水量整体减少;当东亚季风偏弱时,夏季极端降水增幅呈南北分异,而南亚II区季风偏弱时,极端降水增幅呈东西分异。
With the rapid development of social economy and the continuous development of ecological construction, the change of water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin plays an important role in the sustainable development of trans-regional water transfer. Thus, it is worthy to analyze the variation characteristics and influencing factors of extreme precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin, using the peaks-over-threshold approach, extreme precipitation concentration degree(EPCD) and extreme precipitation concentration period(EPCP). The results show that(1) In terms of the "10-day" scale, the extreme EPCD in the river basin is relatively high, and it shows the distribution characteristics of "high in the west and low in the east", which illustrated that the precipitation is more uniform in the eastern part than in the western. And the EPCD in the lower reaches of Hanjiang River has a decreasing tendency in recent years, which indicated that the precipitation tends to disperse. The annual average value of EPCP in the Hanjiang River is concentrated in late July, and it shows the spatial distribution features of "early in the east, and late in the west", that is, there is earlier arrival of the flood season in the east than in the west.(2) For the monthly scale, the extreme precipitation in the study basin is concentrated in May and September, and extreme precipitation rarely occurs during the period from October of the same year to April of the following year.(3) At the seasonal scale, since the start of the 21 st century, the proportion of extreme precipitation in summer in the basin has decreased, and the summer extreme precipitation has mainly changed to spring in the upper reaches, which turned into autumn in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, indicating that summer is the key season that leads to the uneven variation of the extreme precipitation.(4) As for influencing factors, the East Asian summer monsoon and South Asia II have a negative correlation with the extreme precipitation. When the East Asian summer monsoon and South Asia II are strong, the extreme precipitation in the whole river basin decreases. However, when the East Asian monsoon and South Asia II are weak, the correlations with extreme precipitation present spatial difference. The weaker the East Asian monsoon, the increase of extreme precipitation varies from north to south, while in South Asia region II, the increase of extreme precipitation varies from east to west.
With the rapid development of social economy and the continuous development of ecological construction, the change of water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin plays an important role in the sustainable development of trans-regional water transfer. Thus, it is worthy to analyze the variation characteristics and influencing factors of extreme precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin, using the peaks-over-threshold approach, extreme precipitation concentration degree(EPCD) and extreme precipitation concentration period(EPCP). The results show that(1) In terms of the "10-day" scale, the extreme EPCD in the river basin is relatively high, and it shows the distribution characteristics of "high in the west and low in the east", which illustrated that the precipitation is more uniform in the eastern part than in the western. And the EPCD in the lower reaches of Hanjiang River has a decreasing tendency in recent years, which indicated that the precipitation tends to disperse. The annual average value of EPCP in the Hanjiang River is concentrated in late July, and it shows the spatial distribution features of "early in the east, and late in the west", that is, there is earlier arrival of the flood season in the east than in the west.(2) For the monthly scale, the extreme precipitation in the study basin is concentrated in May and September, and extreme precipitation rarely occurs during the period from October of the same year to April of the following year.(3) At the seasonal scale, since the start of the 21 st century, the proportion of extreme precipitation in summer in the basin has decreased, and the summer extreme precipitation has mainly changed to spring in the upper reaches, which turned into autumn in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, indicating that summer is the key season that leads to the uneven variation of the extreme precipitation.(4) As for influencing factors, the East Asian summer monsoon and South Asia II have a negative correlation with the extreme precipitation. When the East Asian summer monsoon and South Asia II are strong, the extreme precipitation in the whole river basin decreases. However, when the East Asian monsoon and South Asia II are weak, the correlations with extreme precipitation present spatial difference. The weaker the East Asian monsoon, the increase of extreme precipitation varies from north to south, while in South Asia region II, the increase of extreme precipitation varies from east to west.
引文
[1] PFAHL S, O'GORMAN P A, FISCHER E M. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7(6):423-427.
[2]景丞,陶辉,王艳君,等.基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2):266-277.[JING C, TAO H, WANG Y J, et al. Projection of extreme precipitation events in China based on regional climate model CCLM. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(2):266-277.]
[3] SIEPIELSKI A M, MORRISSEY M B, BUORO M, et al. Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection. Science, 2017, 355(6328):959-962.
[4] KNAPP A K, AVOLIO M L, BEIER C, et al. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments:Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years. Global Change Biology, 2017, 23(5):1774-1782.
[5]武文博,游庆龙,王岱.基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(6):1015-1026.[WU W B, YOU Q L, WANG D. Characteristics of extreme precipitation in China based on homogenized precipitation data. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(6):1015-1026.]
[6] WANG Y Q, ZHOU L. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32(9):1-4.
[7]顾西辉,张强,陈晓宏.中国降水及流域径流均匀度时空特征及影响因子研究.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(10):1714-1724.[GU X H, ZHANG Q, CHEN X H. Spatiotemporal patterns of uniformity of precipitation and runoff over China and related influencing factors. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(10):1714-1724.]
[8]顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应.地理学报, 2016, 71(5):718-730.[GU X H,ZHANG Q, KONG D D. Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(5):718-730.]
[9]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.中国干湿区变化与预估.大气科学, 2017, 41(1):43-56.[JIANG J, JIANG D P, LIN Y H.Changes and projection of dry/wet areas over China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science, 2017, 41(1):43-56.]
[10]陈华,郭生练,郭海晋,等.汉江流域1951-2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析.长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3):340-345.[CHEN H, GUO S L, GUO H J, et al. Temporal and spatial trend in the precipitation and temperature from1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2006, 15(3):340-345.]
[11]白景锋.基于县域的生态脆弱区人均粮食时空格局变动及驱动力分析:以南水北调中线水源区为例.地理科学,2014, 34(2):178-184.[BAI J F. Spatial pattern changes and its driving forces per capita grain possessionat at county level in ecologically sensitive region:A case of water source area for the the middle route project of South to North Water Transfer. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(2):178-184.]
[12]张静,任志远.基于MOD 16的汉江流域地表蒸散发时空特征.地理科学, 2017, 37(2):274-282.[ZHANG J, REN Z Y. Spatiotemporal characteristics of evapotranspiration based on MOD 16 in the Hanjiang River Basin. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(2):274-282.]
[13]易凤佳,李仁东,常变蓉,等. 2000-2010年汉江流域湿地动态变化及其空间趋向性.长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(9):1412-1420.[YI F J, LI R D, CHANG B R, et al. Dynamic change analysis of wetland and its spatialtemporal trend in from 2000 to 2010. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(9):1412-1420.]
[14]李丹,郭生练,洪兴骏,等.汉江流域1960-2014年降雨极值时空变化特征.长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(9):1448-1456.[LI D, GUO S L, HONG X J, et al. Temporal and spatial variation of rainfall extremes in Han River Basin from1960 to 2014. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(9):1448-1456.]
[15]李小燕,任志远,张翀.汉江流域NDVI与水热指数时空变化及相关性分析.地理研究, 2013, 32(9):1623-1633.[LI X Y, REN Z. Y, ZHANG C. The correlation analysis and space-time changes of NDVI and hydro-thermal index in Hanjiang basin. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(9):1623-1633.]
[16]王鹏涛,张立伟,李英杰,等.汉江上游生态系统服务权衡与协同关系时空特征.地理学报, 2017, 72(11):2064-2078.[WANG P T, ZHANG L W, LI Y J, et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the trade-off and synergy relationships among muitiple ecosystem services in the Upper Reachers of Hanjiang River Basin. Acta Geographica sinca, 2017, 72(11):2065-2078.]
[17]陈心池,张利平,闪丽洁,等.基于Copula函数的汉江中上游流域极端降雨洪水联合分布特征.长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(8):1425-1433.[CHEN X C, ZHANG L P, SHAN L J, et al. Joint distribution of the extreme rainfall and flood for the upper-middle reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin on Copula function. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015, 24(8):1425-1433.]
[18]郑江禹,张强,史培军,等.珠江流域多尺度极端降水时空特征及影响因子研究.地理科学, 2017, 37(2):283-291.[ZHENG J Y, ZHANG Q, SHI P J, et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation regimes and related driving factors in the Pearl River Basin. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(2):283-291.]
[19] GU X H, ZHANG Q, SINGH V P, et al. Nonstationarity in timing of extreme precipitation across China and impact of tropical cyclones. Global and Planetary Change, 2017, 149:153-165.
[20] KHOUAKHI A, VILLARINI G, VECCHI G A. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to rainfall at the global scale. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(1):359-372.
[21]李双双,芦佳玉,延军平,等. 1970-2015年秦岭南北气温时空变化及其气候分界意义.地理学报, 2018, 73(1):13-24.[LI S S, LU J Y, YAN J P, et al. Spatiotemporal variability of temperature in northern and southern Qinling Mountains and its influence on climatic boundary. Acta Geographica Sinca, 2018, 73(1):13-24.]
[22] LI J P, ZENG Q C. A new monsoon index, its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation. Climatic&Environmental Research, 2005, 10(3):351-365.
[23] ANGéLil O, STONE D, WEHNER M, et al. An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(1):5-16.
[24] HAMED K H, RAO A R. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 1998, 204(1):182-196.
[25] ZHANG L J, QIAN Y F. Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003, 17(2):146-163.
[26]丁一汇,王绍武,郑景云,等.中国气候.北京:科学出版社, 2013.[DING Y H, WANG S W, ZHENG J Y, et al. Climate in China. Beijing:Science Press, 2013.]
[27]杨柳,赵俊虎,封国林.中国东部季风区夏季四类雨型的水汽输送特征及差异.大气科学, 2018, 42(1):81-95.[YANG L, ZHAO J H, FENG G L. Characteristics and differences of summertime moisture transport associated with four rainfall patterns over eastern China monsoon region. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(1):81-95.]
[28]邹梦,乔少博,吴永萍,等.热带印度洋—西太平洋水汽输送异常对中国东部夏季降水的影响.大气科学, 2017, 41(5):988-998.[ZOU M, QIAO S B, WU Y P, et al. Effects of anomalous water vapor transport from tropical Indian oceanwestern pacific on summer rainfall in eastern China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(5):988-998.]
[29]武文博,游庆龙,王岱,等.中国东部夏季极端降水事件及大气环流异常分析.气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(1):47-58.[WU W B, YOU Q L, WANG D, et al. Characteristics of extreme precipitation and associated anomalous circulations over eastern China during boreal summer. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(1):47-58.]
[30] LIU R, LIUS C, RALPH J C, et al. Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 32(8):1027-1037.
[2]景丞,陶辉,王艳君,等.基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2):266-277.[JING C, TAO H, WANG Y J, et al. Projection of extreme precipitation events in China based on regional climate model CCLM. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(2):266-277.]
[3] SIEPIELSKI A M, MORRISSEY M B, BUORO M, et al. Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection. Science, 2017, 355(6328):959-962.
[4] KNAPP A K, AVOLIO M L, BEIER C, et al. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments:Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years. Global Change Biology, 2017, 23(5):1774-1782.
[5]武文博,游庆龙,王岱.基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(6):1015-1026.[WU W B, YOU Q L, WANG D. Characteristics of extreme precipitation in China based on homogenized precipitation data. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(6):1015-1026.]
[6] WANG Y Q, ZHOU L. Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32(9):1-4.
[7]顾西辉,张强,陈晓宏.中国降水及流域径流均匀度时空特征及影响因子研究.自然资源学报, 2015, 30(10):1714-1724.[GU X H, ZHANG Q, CHEN X H. Spatiotemporal patterns of uniformity of precipitation and runoff over China and related influencing factors. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(10):1714-1724.]
[8]顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应.地理学报, 2016, 71(5):718-730.[GU X H,ZHANG Q, KONG D D. Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(5):718-730.]
[9]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.中国干湿区变化与预估.大气科学, 2017, 41(1):43-56.[JIANG J, JIANG D P, LIN Y H.Changes and projection of dry/wet areas over China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science, 2017, 41(1):43-56.]
[10]陈华,郭生练,郭海晋,等.汉江流域1951-2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析.长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3):340-345.[CHEN H, GUO S L, GUO H J, et al. Temporal and spatial trend in the precipitation and temperature from1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2006, 15(3):340-345.]
[11]白景锋.基于县域的生态脆弱区人均粮食时空格局变动及驱动力分析:以南水北调中线水源区为例.地理科学,2014, 34(2):178-184.[BAI J F. Spatial pattern changes and its driving forces per capita grain possessionat at county level in ecologically sensitive region:A case of water source area for the the middle route project of South to North Water Transfer. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(2):178-184.]
[12]张静,任志远.基于MOD 16的汉江流域地表蒸散发时空特征.地理科学, 2017, 37(2):274-282.[ZHANG J, REN Z Y. Spatiotemporal characteristics of evapotranspiration based on MOD 16 in the Hanjiang River Basin. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(2):274-282.]
[13]易凤佳,李仁东,常变蓉,等. 2000-2010年汉江流域湿地动态变化及其空间趋向性.长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(9):1412-1420.[YI F J, LI R D, CHANG B R, et al. Dynamic change analysis of wetland and its spatialtemporal trend in from 2000 to 2010. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(9):1412-1420.]
[14]李丹,郭生练,洪兴骏,等.汉江流域1960-2014年降雨极值时空变化特征.长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(9):1448-1456.[LI D, GUO S L, HONG X J, et al. Temporal and spatial variation of rainfall extremes in Han River Basin from1960 to 2014. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(9):1448-1456.]
[15]李小燕,任志远,张翀.汉江流域NDVI与水热指数时空变化及相关性分析.地理研究, 2013, 32(9):1623-1633.[LI X Y, REN Z. Y, ZHANG C. The correlation analysis and space-time changes of NDVI and hydro-thermal index in Hanjiang basin. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(9):1623-1633.]
[16]王鹏涛,张立伟,李英杰,等.汉江上游生态系统服务权衡与协同关系时空特征.地理学报, 2017, 72(11):2064-2078.[WANG P T, ZHANG L W, LI Y J, et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the trade-off and synergy relationships among muitiple ecosystem services in the Upper Reachers of Hanjiang River Basin. Acta Geographica sinca, 2017, 72(11):2065-2078.]
[17]陈心池,张利平,闪丽洁,等.基于Copula函数的汉江中上游流域极端降雨洪水联合分布特征.长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(8):1425-1433.[CHEN X C, ZHANG L P, SHAN L J, et al. Joint distribution of the extreme rainfall and flood for the upper-middle reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin on Copula function. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015, 24(8):1425-1433.]
[18]郑江禹,张强,史培军,等.珠江流域多尺度极端降水时空特征及影响因子研究.地理科学, 2017, 37(2):283-291.[ZHENG J Y, ZHANG Q, SHI P J, et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation regimes and related driving factors in the Pearl River Basin. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2017, 37(2):283-291.]
[19] GU X H, ZHANG Q, SINGH V P, et al. Nonstationarity in timing of extreme precipitation across China and impact of tropical cyclones. Global and Planetary Change, 2017, 149:153-165.
[20] KHOUAKHI A, VILLARINI G, VECCHI G A. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to rainfall at the global scale. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(1):359-372.
[21]李双双,芦佳玉,延军平,等. 1970-2015年秦岭南北气温时空变化及其气候分界意义.地理学报, 2018, 73(1):13-24.[LI S S, LU J Y, YAN J P, et al. Spatiotemporal variability of temperature in northern and southern Qinling Mountains and its influence on climatic boundary. Acta Geographica Sinca, 2018, 73(1):13-24.]
[22] LI J P, ZENG Q C. A new monsoon index, its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation. Climatic&Environmental Research, 2005, 10(3):351-365.
[23] ANGéLil O, STONE D, WEHNER M, et al. An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(1):5-16.
[24] HAMED K H, RAO A R. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 1998, 204(1):182-196.
[25] ZHANG L J, QIAN Y F. Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003, 17(2):146-163.
[26]丁一汇,王绍武,郑景云,等.中国气候.北京:科学出版社, 2013.[DING Y H, WANG S W, ZHENG J Y, et al. Climate in China. Beijing:Science Press, 2013.]
[27]杨柳,赵俊虎,封国林.中国东部季风区夏季四类雨型的水汽输送特征及差异.大气科学, 2018, 42(1):81-95.[YANG L, ZHAO J H, FENG G L. Characteristics and differences of summertime moisture transport associated with four rainfall patterns over eastern China monsoon region. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 42(1):81-95.]
[28]邹梦,乔少博,吴永萍,等.热带印度洋—西太平洋水汽输送异常对中国东部夏季降水的影响.大气科学, 2017, 41(5):988-998.[ZOU M, QIAO S B, WU Y P, et al. Effects of anomalous water vapor transport from tropical Indian oceanwestern pacific on summer rainfall in eastern China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(5):988-998.]
[29]武文博,游庆龙,王岱,等.中国东部夏季极端降水事件及大气环流异常分析.气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(1):47-58.[WU W B, YOU Q L, WANG D, et al. Characteristics of extreme precipitation and associated anomalous circulations over eastern China during boreal summer. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(1):47-58.]
[30] LIU R, LIUS C, RALPH J C, et al. Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 32(8):1027-1037.
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