新疆冬季气温年际异常的主模态及其成因分析
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摘要
基于新疆1961—2016年89个观测站冬季平均气温经验正交分解的空间模态,讨论了与各空间模态及其相联系的北半球中高纬度环流特征,结果表明:新疆冬季平均气温的年际异常空间模态分为全区一致类、南北反相类、东西反相类,根据这三类空间模态的正负位相不同分别分为一致偏冷型、一致偏暖型、北冷南暖型、北暖南冷型、东冷西暖型和东暖西冷型等6个空间分布型。新疆冬季平均气温各空间分布型的环流影响因子既表现了极地和中纬度环流相互作用,也有纬圈方向的波列传播的影响。当北半球中纬度西风偏弱,中高纬度环流经向度加大,乌拉尔山地区的高压脊发展和东亚大槽偏深,50°N以南为负高度距平,新疆冬季平均气温一致偏低;反之则一致偏高。北冷南暖型在40°N以北的区域与一致偏冷型的环流特征基本类似,但在中亚至新疆40°N偏南的区域位势高度偏高;北暖南冷型出现时,乌拉尔山负高度距平和东亚大槽偏弱,新疆上空为浅脊控制,新疆南部受脊后的浅槽影响。东冷西暖型和东暖西冷型区别在于中纬度的500 hPa正高度距平中心的位置和700 hPa气流方向。北极涛动(AO)、区域西风指数、乌拉尔山关键区因子、欧亚纬向环流指数、西藏高原-1指数、西藏高原-2指数、斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型指数(SCA)、亚洲区极涡面积指数等8个气候指数都对新疆冬季平均气温产生了重要的影响。
Based on the observed temperature data at 89 meteorological stations and the NCEP-NCAR re-analysis data during the period from 1961 to 2016,this study investigates three major modes of winter temperature over Xinjiang,China through empirical orthogonal function(EOF) method,and the characteristics of associated mid-high latitudes atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.It can provide ideas and basis for climate prediction to discuss the possible causes of the abnormal winter temperature in Xinjiang.It reveals that the three major spatial modes of winter temperature in Xinjiang,which include the provincially consistent mode,anticlastic mode between the south and the north and anticlastic mode between the west and the east,could be divided further into 6 spatial distribution patterns as follows the uniformly relative cold(or warm) pattern,North being cold(or warm) and South being warm(or cold) pattern,and East being cold(or warm) and West being warm(or cold) pattern.Further analysis indicates that the atmospheric circulation impact factors on the distribution of the winter average temperature in Xinjiang included the polar and mid-latitude circulation interactions and the wave transmission from the latitude circles.The consistent cold(warm) pattern of winter temperature in Xinjiang was associated with the weakening(strengthening) west wind from the middle latitude in the northern hemisphere,and the strengthening(weakening) longitude circulation in the high latitude,the high pressure ridge development in the Ural Mountains,the deepening East Asia trough the East Asian Trough,the anomaly of negative height in south of 50°N.The difference between the pattern of cold East and warm West and the pattern of warm East and cold West lies in the mid-latitude 500 hPa positive anomaly center and the 700 hPa wind direction.The pattern of cold north and warm south is similar to the circulation feature of the consistent cold pattern in the northern region of 40°N,but higher in the southern region of 40°N from Central Asia to Xinjiang.The pattern of warm North and cold South pattern was associated with the weakening of Ural anomaly and the East Asian Deep Trough,and the control of shallow trough over Xinjiang and the impact of the shallow trough after the ridge in southern Xinjiang.This study revealed the indirect but important influencing factors on winter temperature in Xinjiang from 8 circulation indexes.The difference of the positive and negative phases of the AO index and the area index of the polar vortex in Asia can easily cause the regional variation of the average temperature in winter in Xinjiang,and the greater the absolute value,the more obvious the influence of dominance.When the Tibet Plateau-1 index and the Tibet Plateau-2 index are high,the winter mean temperature in southern Xinjiang tends to be higher.When the SCA index of the key area of Ural Mountains is large,the temperature in the north Xinjiang is easy to be low.When the Eurasian zonal circulation index and the regional westerly index are larger,the winter mean temperature in the western and northern regions of Xinjiang is apt to be higher.
Based on the observed temperature data at 89 meteorological stations and the NCEP-NCAR re-analysis data during the period from 1961 to 2016,this study investigates three major modes of winter temperature over Xinjiang,China through empirical orthogonal function(EOF) method,and the characteristics of associated mid-high latitudes atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.It can provide ideas and basis for climate prediction to discuss the possible causes of the abnormal winter temperature in Xinjiang.It reveals that the three major spatial modes of winter temperature in Xinjiang,which include the provincially consistent mode,anticlastic mode between the south and the north and anticlastic mode between the west and the east,could be divided further into 6 spatial distribution patterns as follows the uniformly relative cold(or warm) pattern,North being cold(or warm) and South being warm(or cold) pattern,and East being cold(or warm) and West being warm(or cold) pattern.Further analysis indicates that the atmospheric circulation impact factors on the distribution of the winter average temperature in Xinjiang included the polar and mid-latitude circulation interactions and the wave transmission from the latitude circles.The consistent cold(warm) pattern of winter temperature in Xinjiang was associated with the weakening(strengthening) west wind from the middle latitude in the northern hemisphere,and the strengthening(weakening) longitude circulation in the high latitude,the high pressure ridge development in the Ural Mountains,the deepening East Asia trough the East Asian Trough,the anomaly of negative height in south of 50°N.The difference between the pattern of cold East and warm West and the pattern of warm East and cold West lies in the mid-latitude 500 hPa positive anomaly center and the 700 hPa wind direction.The pattern of cold north and warm south is similar to the circulation feature of the consistent cold pattern in the northern region of 40°N,but higher in the southern region of 40°N from Central Asia to Xinjiang.The pattern of warm North and cold South pattern was associated with the weakening of Ural anomaly and the East Asian Deep Trough,and the control of shallow trough over Xinjiang and the impact of the shallow trough after the ridge in southern Xinjiang.This study revealed the indirect but important influencing factors on winter temperature in Xinjiang from 8 circulation indexes.The difference of the positive and negative phases of the AO index and the area index of the polar vortex in Asia can easily cause the regional variation of the average temperature in winter in Xinjiang,and the greater the absolute value,the more obvious the influence of dominance.When the Tibet Plateau-1 index and the Tibet Plateau-2 index are high,the winter mean temperature in southern Xinjiang tends to be higher.When the SCA index of the key area of Ural Mountains is large,the temperature in the north Xinjiang is easy to be low.When the Eurasian zonal circulation index and the regional westerly index are larger,the winter mean temperature in the western and northern regions of Xinjiang is apt to be higher.
引文
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[9] HUANG Ronghui,CHEN Jilong,HUANG Gang.Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(2):993-1023.
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[11] 丁一汇,柳艳菊,梁苏洁,等.东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J].气象学报,2014,72(5):935-852.[DING Yihui,LIU Yanju,LIANG Sujie,et al.Inerdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,72(5):835-852.]
[12] 龚道溢,王绍武.冬季西风环流指数的变率及其与北半球温度变化的关系研究[J].热带气象学报,2002,18(2):104-110.[GONG Daoyi,WANG Shaowu.Variability of the winter zonal index and its association with the northern hemispheric temperature changes[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2002,18(2):104-110.]
[13] 武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.[WU Bingyi,HUANG Ronghui.Effects of the extremes in the North Atlantic oscillation on East Asia winter monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1999,23(6):641-651.]
[14] 龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):559-568.[ GONG Daoyi,WANG Shaowu.Influence of Arctic oscillation on winter climate over China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(4):559-568.]
[15] 林振敏,施能.北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候[J].气象科技,2004,32(5):333-337.[LIN Zhenmin,SHI Neng.Characteristics of winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns in northern hemisphere and their effects on climate in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2004,32(5):333-337.]
[16] 陈文,康丽华.北极涛动与东亚冬季气候在年际尺度上的联系:准定常行星波的作用[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):863-870.[CHEN Wen,KANG Lihua.Linkage between the Arctic oscillation and winter climate over East Asia on the interannual timescale:Roles of quasi-stationary planetary waves[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(5):863-870.]
[17] 陈颖,李元鹏,辛渝,等.2008年初塔里木盆地低温阴雪过程的气候特征及影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(6):12-15.[CHEN Ying,LI Yuanpeng,XIN Yu,et al.Characters and impacts of low temperature and cloudy-snow process over Tarim Basin in early 2008[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2008,2(6):12-15.]
[18] 陈颖,江远安,毛炜峄,等.气候变化背景下新疆北部2009—2010年冬季雪灾[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):104-109.[CHEN Ying,JIANG Yuan’an,MAO Weiyi,et al.2009-2010 winter snow disaster in northern Xinjiang under global warming[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2011,7(2):104-109.]
[19] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[WEI Fengying.Diagnotic and predictive technology in modern climatologic statistics[M].Beijing: China Meteorological Press,1999.]
[20] 刘毓赟,陈文.北半球冬季欧亚遥相关型的变化特征及其对我国气候的影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):423-432.[LIU Yuyun,CHEN Wen.Variability of Eurasian teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere winter and its influences on the climate in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(2):423-432.]
[21] 徐婷,邵华,张弛.近32 a中亚地区气温时空格局分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(1):25-35.[XU Ting,SHAO Hua,ZHANG Chi.Temporal pattern analysis of air temperature change in Central Asia during 1980-2011[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(1):25-35.]
[2] 王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,等.近百年中国气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401.[WANG Shaowu,YE Jinlin,GONG Daoyi,et al.Constrction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1998,9(4):392-401.]
[3] 陈隆勋,邵永宁,张清芬,等.近四十年我国气候变化的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,1991,2(2):164-174.[CHEN Longxun,SHAO Yongning,ZHANG Qingfen,et al.Preliminary analysis of climateic change during the last 39 years in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1991,2(2):164-174.]
[4] 《新疆区域气候变化评估报告》编写委员会.新疆区域气候变化评估报告决策者摘要及执行摘要2012[M].北京:气象出版社,2013.[Xinjiang Regional Climate Change Assessment Report Compilation Committee.Xinjiang regional climate change assessment report summary for policymakers and executive summary 2012[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2013.]
[5] 丁一汇.全球气候变化中的物理问题[J].物理,2009,38(2):71-83.[DING Yihui.Physical problems in the global climate change[J].Physics,2009,38(2):71-83.]
[6] 侯亚红,杨修群,李刚.冬季西伯利亚高压变化特征及其与中国气温的关系[J].气象科技,2007,35(5):646-650.[HOU Yahong,YANG Xiuqun,LI Gang.Variation features of Siberian high and relation with winter temperature in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2007,35(5):646-650.]
[7] 季明霞,黄建平,王绍武,等.冬季中高纬地区阻塞高压活动及其气候影响[J].高原气象,2008,27(2):415-421.[JI Mingxia,HUANG Jianping,WANG Shaowu,et al.Winter blocking episodes and impact on climate over East Asia[J].Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(2):415-421.]
[8] 龚道溢,王绍武.西伯利亚高压的长期变化及全球变暖可能影响的研究[J].地理学报,1999,54(2):125-133.[GONG Daoyi,WANG SHaowu.Long-term variability of the Siberian high and the possible connection to global warming[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1999,54(2):125-133.]
[9] HUANG Ronghui,CHEN Jilong,HUANG Gang.Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(2):993-1023.
[10] 郭其蕴.东亚冬季风的变化与中国气温异常的关系[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(2):218-225.[GUO Qiyun.Relationship between the variations of East Asian winter monsoon and temperature anomalies in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1994,5(2):218-225.]
[11] 丁一汇,柳艳菊,梁苏洁,等.东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J].气象学报,2014,72(5):935-852.[DING Yihui,LIU Yanju,LIANG Sujie,et al.Inerdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,72(5):835-852.]
[12] 龚道溢,王绍武.冬季西风环流指数的变率及其与北半球温度变化的关系研究[J].热带气象学报,2002,18(2):104-110.[GONG Daoyi,WANG Shaowu.Variability of the winter zonal index and its association with the northern hemispheric temperature changes[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2002,18(2):104-110.]
[13] 武炳义,黄荣辉.冬季北大西洋涛动极端异常变化与东亚冬季风[J].大气科学,1999,23(6):641-651.[WU Bingyi,HUANG Ronghui.Effects of the extremes in the North Atlantic oscillation on East Asia winter monsoon[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1999,23(6):641-651.]
[14] 龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报,2003,58(4):559-568.[ GONG Daoyi,WANG Shaowu.Influence of Arctic oscillation on winter climate over China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(4):559-568.]
[15] 林振敏,施能.北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候[J].气象科技,2004,32(5):333-337.[LIN Zhenmin,SHI Neng.Characteristics of winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns in northern hemisphere and their effects on climate in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2004,32(5):333-337.]
[16] 陈文,康丽华.北极涛动与东亚冬季气候在年际尺度上的联系:准定常行星波的作用[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):863-870.[CHEN Wen,KANG Lihua.Linkage between the Arctic oscillation and winter climate over East Asia on the interannual timescale:Roles of quasi-stationary planetary waves[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(5):863-870.]
[17] 陈颖,李元鹏,辛渝,等.2008年初塔里木盆地低温阴雪过程的气候特征及影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(6):12-15.[CHEN Ying,LI Yuanpeng,XIN Yu,et al.Characters and impacts of low temperature and cloudy-snow process over Tarim Basin in early 2008[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2008,2(6):12-15.]
[18] 陈颖,江远安,毛炜峄,等.气候变化背景下新疆北部2009—2010年冬季雪灾[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):104-109.[CHEN Ying,JIANG Yuan’an,MAO Weiyi,et al.2009-2010 winter snow disaster in northern Xinjiang under global warming[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2011,7(2):104-109.]
[19] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[WEI Fengying.Diagnotic and predictive technology in modern climatologic statistics[M].Beijing: China Meteorological Press,1999.]
[20] 刘毓赟,陈文.北半球冬季欧亚遥相关型的变化特征及其对我国气候的影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):423-432.[LIU Yuyun,CHEN Wen.Variability of Eurasian teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere winter and its influences on the climate in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(2):423-432.]
[21] 徐婷,邵华,张弛.近32 a中亚地区气温时空格局分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(1):25-35.[XU Ting,SHAO Hua,ZHANG Chi.Temporal pattern analysis of air temperature change in Central Asia during 1980-2011[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(1):25-35.]
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