技术性贸易措施对我国数控系统产品出口“一带一路”国家的影响分析
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摘要
技术性贸易措施影响我国与"一带一路"国家的贸易畅通。我们用进口国通报的有关数控系统产品的技术性贸易措施的数量来衡量技术性贸易措施对我国数控系统产品出口的影响。基于固定效应、随机效应及系统GMM等方法,我们测量了2013—2017年"一带一路"国家通报的技术性贸易措施对我国数控系统产品出口的影响。固定效应的回归结果显示TBT通报数会扩大我国数控系统产品的出口额;随机效应的回归结果显示TBT通报数会抑制我国数控系统产品的出口量。通过加入数控系统产品的出口额和出口量的滞后值来设立动态面板模型,分别运用系统GMM回归,发现TBT通报数会抑制我国数控系统产品的出口额及出口量。最后提出减少技术性贸易措施对出口贸易影响的若干建议。
The unimpeded trade along the Belt and Road countries is affected by the technical barriers to trade. We use the number of technical barriers to trade related to numerical control system products imposed by the import countries to measure their influences on our exports of numerical control system products. Applying fixed effect, random effect, and system GMM methods, we calculate the impact of technical barriers to trade imposed by the Belt and Road countries during 2013 and 2017 on our exports. The results of fixed effect suggest the number of technical barriers to trade will expand the value of our exports.The results of random effect indicate the number of technical barriers to trade will decrease the volume of our exports. We set up a dynamic panel model via adding lagged values of the value and volume of our exports, and apply the system GMM method respectively. We find the number of technical barriers to trade will depress the value and volume of our exports. At last, we propose some advices to ease the negative impact of technical barriers to trade on our exports.
The unimpeded trade along the Belt and Road countries is affected by the technical barriers to trade. We use the number of technical barriers to trade related to numerical control system products imposed by the import countries to measure their influences on our exports of numerical control system products. Applying fixed effect, random effect, and system GMM methods, we calculate the impact of technical barriers to trade imposed by the Belt and Road countries during 2013 and 2017 on our exports. The results of fixed effect suggest the number of technical barriers to trade will expand the value of our exports.The results of random effect indicate the number of technical barriers to trade will decrease the volume of our exports. We set up a dynamic panel model via adding lagged values of the value and volume of our exports, and apply the system GMM method respectively. We find the number of technical barriers to trade will depress the value and volume of our exports. At last, we propose some advices to ease the negative impact of technical barriers to trade on our exports.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.中国技术性贸易措施年度报告(2017)[M].北京:中国质检出版社,2017.
[2]DISDIER A C,FONTAGNéL,MIMOUNI M.The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade:Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices,2008,(2):336-350.
[3]张秀娥,张波.技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易影响的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,(2):22-26.
[4]李富.“一带一路”国家技术贸易壁垒效应评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2018,(1):96-101.
[5]刘双芹,李芝.美国技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响--基于贸易引力模型的实证研究[J].工业技术经济,2016,(4):74-82.
[6]樊秀峰,郭嫚嫚,魏昀妍.技术性贸易壁垒对中国高新技术产品出口二元边际的影响--以“一带一路”沿线国家为例[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2019,(1):18-27.
[7]WOOD J,WU J,LI Y L,et al.TBT and SPS impacts on Korean exports to China:empirical analysis using the PPMLmethod[J].Asian-Pacific Economic Literature,2017,(2):96-114.
[8]BAHMANI-OSKOOEE M,HEGERTY S W.Exchange rate volatility and trade flows:a review article[J].Journal of Economic Studies,2007,(3):211-255.
[9]BAIER S L,BERGSTRAND J H.Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members'International Trade?[J].Journal of International Economics,2005,(1):72-95.
[10]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010.
[11]CHIT M M,RIZOV M,WILLENBOCKEL D.Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports:New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies[J].World Economy,2010,(2):239-263.
(1)样本中非WTO成员国有:阿尔及利亚、阿塞拜疆、埃塞俄比亚、巴勒斯坦、白俄罗斯、波黑、不丹、东帝汶、库克群岛、黎巴嫩、利比亚、密克罗尼西亚联邦、南苏丹、纽埃、塞尔维亚、苏丹、索马里、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗。
(2)传统的豪斯曼检验的p值为0.2262,接受随机效应,与前面结论相反。
(3)传统的豪斯曼检验p值为0.8897。
[2]DISDIER A C,FONTAGNéL,MIMOUNI M.The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade:Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices,2008,(2):336-350.
[3]张秀娥,张波.技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易影响的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,(2):22-26.
[4]李富.“一带一路”国家技术贸易壁垒效应评价[J].技术经济与管理研究,2018,(1):96-101.
[5]刘双芹,李芝.美国技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响--基于贸易引力模型的实证研究[J].工业技术经济,2016,(4):74-82.
[6]樊秀峰,郭嫚嫚,魏昀妍.技术性贸易壁垒对中国高新技术产品出口二元边际的影响--以“一带一路”沿线国家为例[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2019,(1):18-27.
[7]WOOD J,WU J,LI Y L,et al.TBT and SPS impacts on Korean exports to China:empirical analysis using the PPMLmethod[J].Asian-Pacific Economic Literature,2017,(2):96-114.
[8]BAHMANI-OSKOOEE M,HEGERTY S W.Exchange rate volatility and trade flows:a review article[J].Journal of Economic Studies,2007,(3):211-255.
[9]BAIER S L,BERGSTRAND J H.Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members'International Trade?[J].Journal of International Economics,2005,(1):72-95.
[10]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2010.
[11]CHIT M M,RIZOV M,WILLENBOCKEL D.Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports:New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies[J].World Economy,2010,(2):239-263.
(1)样本中非WTO成员国有:阿尔及利亚、阿塞拜疆、埃塞俄比亚、巴勒斯坦、白俄罗斯、波黑、不丹、东帝汶、库克群岛、黎巴嫩、利比亚、密克罗尼西亚联邦、南苏丹、纽埃、塞尔维亚、苏丹、索马里、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗。
(2)传统的豪斯曼检验的p值为0.2262,接受随机效应,与前面结论相反。
(3)传统的豪斯曼检验p值为0.8897。