博斯腾湖流域潜在蒸散发时空演变及归因分析
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摘要
运用博斯腾湖流域1970—2014年的气象站点数据及Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散发(ET0),对比分析了流域山区和平原区ET0的时空变化及对主要气象因子的不同影响。结果表明:(1)在年际尺度上,山区ET0在1970—2000年整体呈波动下降的趋势(P <0. 01),2000年开始,ET0呈现略微上升的趋势;平原区ET0在1970—1993年间以-77 mm·(10 a)-1的速率呈减小的趋势(P <0. 01),1993年之后逆转为以83. 8 mm·(10 a)-1的速率呈上升趋势(P <0. 01),平原区的变化明显强于山区。(2)季节上呈现夏季为流域ET0最高的季节,是年变化的主要贡献者;而变化趋势则表现为平原区春季和夏季ET0大于山区,秋季和冬季略小于山区。(3) ET0变化对净辐射和风速最为敏感,同时,山区净辐射和风速对ET0变化的贡献率最大,平原区影响ET0变化的主导因素是风速,风速对ET0的贡献率均超过50%。
Evapotranspiration is the most important part of the watershed hydrologic cycle. Analysis of the sensitivity of ET0 to meteorological factors is helpful to understand the water cycle process of the basin,and also is important to the optimal allocation of water resources. Based on the meteorological data of 9 meteorological stations in the Bosten Lake Basin,Xinjiang,China from 1970 to 2014,this study calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of potential evapotranspiration by using improved Penman-Monteith formula,and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,wind speed,net radiation,relative humidity,and vapor pressure were analyzed. In addition,this study calculated the contribution of major meteorological factors to ET0. The results showed as follows:( 1) At the interannual scale,ET0 in the mountainous region showed a significant reduction trend during the period from 1970 to 2000( P < 0. 01),but since2000,ET0 showed a slightly upward trend. ET0 in the plain region presented a significant decreasing trend( P <0. 01) at a rate of-77 mm·( 10 a)-1in the time period from 1970 to 1993,however,since 1993,the tendency was reversed to an upward tendency at a rate of 83. 8 mm·( 10 a)-1( P < 0. 01). The rangeability of ET0 in the plain oasis region was stronger than that in the mountainous areas.( 2) At the seasonal scale,ET0 was the highest in summer followed by the spring and autumn,and ET0 in winter was the least. ET0 reached the highest in June and lowest in Janaury at the monthly scale,and had a greater dispersion from May to August,which indicated that ET0 changed intensively in this period.( 3) Wind speed and net radiation were the most sensitive variable to ET0 in the Bosten Lake Basin,but the relative change rate of net radiation was small.( 4) The contribution of net radiation and wind speed on ET0 changes were the largest in the mountainous region; and the wind speed was the dominant factor in the plain,which contributed more than 50% to ET0. The analysis of the contribution of meteorological factors on potential evapotranspiration in Bosten Lake Basin can provide scientific basis for water resources allocation and downstream ecological restoration.
Evapotranspiration is the most important part of the watershed hydrologic cycle. Analysis of the sensitivity of ET0 to meteorological factors is helpful to understand the water cycle process of the basin,and also is important to the optimal allocation of water resources. Based on the meteorological data of 9 meteorological stations in the Bosten Lake Basin,Xinjiang,China from 1970 to 2014,this study calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of potential evapotranspiration by using improved Penman-Monteith formula,and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,wind speed,net radiation,relative humidity,and vapor pressure were analyzed. In addition,this study calculated the contribution of major meteorological factors to ET0. The results showed as follows:( 1) At the interannual scale,ET0 in the mountainous region showed a significant reduction trend during the period from 1970 to 2000( P < 0. 01),but since2000,ET0 showed a slightly upward trend. ET0 in the plain region presented a significant decreasing trend( P <0. 01) at a rate of-77 mm·( 10 a)-1in the time period from 1970 to 1993,however,since 1993,the tendency was reversed to an upward tendency at a rate of 83. 8 mm·( 10 a)-1( P < 0. 01). The rangeability of ET0 in the plain oasis region was stronger than that in the mountainous areas.( 2) At the seasonal scale,ET0 was the highest in summer followed by the spring and autumn,and ET0 in winter was the least. ET0 reached the highest in June and lowest in Janaury at the monthly scale,and had a greater dispersion from May to August,which indicated that ET0 changed intensively in this period.( 3) Wind speed and net radiation were the most sensitive variable to ET0 in the Bosten Lake Basin,but the relative change rate of net radiation was small.( 4) The contribution of net radiation and wind speed on ET0 changes were the largest in the mountainous region; and the wind speed was the dominant factor in the plain,which contributed more than 50% to ET0. The analysis of the contribution of meteorological factors on potential evapotranspiration in Bosten Lake Basin can provide scientific basis for water resources allocation and downstream ecological restoration.
引文
[1]丛振涛,倪广恒,杨大文,等.“蒸发悖论”在中国的规律分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(2):147-152.[CONG Zhentao,NI Guangheng,YANG Dawen,et al. Evaporation paradox in China[J]. Advances in Water Science,2008,19(2):147-152.]
[2] QIU X F,LIU C M,ZENG Y. Change of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(4):437-447.
[3]周金龙,姚斐.天山北坡平原区水面蒸发的实验研究[J].干旱区研究,1999,16(1):40-43.[ZHOU Jinlong,YAO Fei. An experimental study on the water surface evaporation in the plain area of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research,1999,16(1):40-43.]
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[5] PETERSON T C,GOLUBEV V S,GROISMAN P Y. Evaporation losing its strength[J]. Nature,1995,377(6551):687-688.
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[8]孙小舟,封志明,杨艳昭.西辽河流域1952年—2007年参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势[J].资源科学,2009,3l(3):479-484.[SUN Xiaozhou,FENG Zhiming,YANG Yanzhao. Change tendency of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xiliaohe Basin[J]. Resources Science,2009,3l(3):479-484.]
[9] GONG L B,XU C Y,CHEN D L,et al. Sensitivity of the PenmanMonteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang(Yangtze River)Basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,329(3-4):620-629.
[10] LI Zhi,CHEN Yaning,YANG Jing,et al. Potential evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2014,28(3):1025-1031.
[11]陈亚宁,杜强,陈跃滨.博斯腾湖流域水资源可持续利用研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.[CHEN Yaning,DU Qiang,CHEN Yuebing. Sustainable water use in the Bosten Lake Basin[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2013.]
[12]王水献,吴彬,杨鹏年,等.焉耆盆地绿洲灌区生态安全下的地下水埋深合理界定[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):422-430.[WANG Shuixian,WU Bin,YANG Pengnian,et al. Determination of the ecological groundwater depth considering ecological integrity over oasis irrigation areas in the Yanqi Basin[J]. Resources Science,2011,33(3):422-430.]
[13]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.[CHEN Yaning,LI Zhi,FAN Yuting,et al. Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(9):1295-1304.]
[14]刘昌明,张丹.中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):579-588.[LIU Changming,ZHANG Dan. Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological influencing factors in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):579-588.]
[15]郭慕萍,王志伟,秦爱民,等. 54年来中国西北地区降水量的变化[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(1):120-125.[GUO Muping,WANG Zhiwei,QIN Aimin,et al. Changes in precipitation in Northwest China over the last 54 Years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2009,26(1):120-125.]
[16]徐永明,赵巧华,巴雅尔,等.基于MODIS数据的博斯腾湖流域地表蒸散时空变化[J].地理科学,2012,32(11):1353-1357.[XU Yongming,ZHAO Qiaohua,BA Yaer,et al. Spatio-temporal variations of land surface evapotranspiration of Bosten Lake basin based on MODIS data[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(11):1353-1357.]
[17]新疆荒地资源综合考察队.博斯腾湖的咸化原因及其控制途径[J].地理学报,1982,37(2):144-153.[Investigation Group of Desert in Xinjiang. The reasons of salinization and its control treatment[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,1982,37(2):144-153.]
[18]赵景峰.中国新疆博斯腾湖的水盐收支及湖水循环[D].东京:东京海洋大学,2002.[ZHAO Jingfeng. Estimination of the water-salt budgets and simulation of the wind-induced water-currents in Lake-Bosten[D]. Tokyo:Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology,2002.]
[19] XU C Y,SINGH V P. Evaluation and generalization of temperaturebased methods for calculating evaporation[J]. Hydrolohical Processes,2001,15(2):305-319.
[20] MCCUEN R H. A sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation[J]. Water Resource Bulletin,1974,10(3):486-498.
[21] ZHENG H,ZHANG L,ZHU R,et al. Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwater of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):W00A19.
[22]梁丽乔,李丽娟,李九一,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5.[LIANG Liqiao,LI Lijuan,LI Jiuyi,et al. Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(5):1-5.]
[23]孙鹏,张强,陈晓宏等.潘阳湖流域水沙时空演变特征及其机理[J].地理学报,2010,65(7):828-840.[SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,CHENG Xiaohong,et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of sediment and runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin and underlying causes[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(7):828-840.]
[24] LI Hongjun,JIANG Zhihong,YANG Qing. Association of north Atlantic oscillations with Aksu River runoff in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Science,2009,19(1):12-24.
[25]杨青,雷加强,魏文寿,等.人工绿洲对夏季气候变化趋势的影响[J].生态学报,2004,24(12):2728-2734.[YANG Qing,LEI Jiaqiang,WEI Wenshou,et al. Effects of artificial oases on climate change trend[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2004,24(12):2728-2834.]
[26]胡和平,汤秋鸿,雷志栋,等.干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型——I模型结构[J].水科学进展,2004,15(2):140-145.[HU Heping,TANG Qiuhong,LEI Zhidong,et al. Runoff evaporation hydrological model for arid plain oasis:I The model structure[J]. Advances in Water Science,2004,15(2):140-145.]
[2] QIU X F,LIU C M,ZENG Y. Change of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(4):437-447.
[3]周金龙,姚斐.天山北坡平原区水面蒸发的实验研究[J].干旱区研究,1999,16(1):40-43.[ZHOU Jinlong,YAO Fei. An experimental study on the water surface evaporation in the plain area of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research,1999,16(1):40-43.]
[4] GAO G,CHEN D L,REN G Y,et al. Trend of potential evapotranspiration over China during 1956 to 2000[J]. Geographical Research,2006,25(3):378-387.
[5] PETERSON T C,GOLUBEV V S,GROISMAN P Y. Evaporation losing its strength[J]. Nature,1995,377(6551):687-688.
[6] ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,DIRK R,et al. Crop evaportranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56[R]. Fao,Rome,1998,300(9):Dos109.
[7]刘园,于颖.华北平原参考作物蒸散量变化特征及气候影响因素[J].生态学报,2010,30(4):923-932.[LIU Yuan,YU Ying. Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration and possible climatic factors in the North China Plain[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(4):923-932.]
[8]孙小舟,封志明,杨艳昭.西辽河流域1952年—2007年参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势[J].资源科学,2009,3l(3):479-484.[SUN Xiaozhou,FENG Zhiming,YANG Yanzhao. Change tendency of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xiliaohe Basin[J]. Resources Science,2009,3l(3):479-484.]
[9] GONG L B,XU C Y,CHEN D L,et al. Sensitivity of the PenmanMonteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang(Yangtze River)Basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,329(3-4):620-629.
[10] LI Zhi,CHEN Yaning,YANG Jing,et al. Potential evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2014,28(3):1025-1031.
[11]陈亚宁,杜强,陈跃滨.博斯腾湖流域水资源可持续利用研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.[CHEN Yaning,DU Qiang,CHEN Yuebing. Sustainable water use in the Bosten Lake Basin[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2013.]
[12]王水献,吴彬,杨鹏年,等.焉耆盆地绿洲灌区生态安全下的地下水埋深合理界定[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):422-430.[WANG Shuixian,WU Bin,YANG Pengnian,et al. Determination of the ecological groundwater depth considering ecological integrity over oasis irrigation areas in the Yanqi Basin[J]. Resources Science,2011,33(3):422-430.]
[13]陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.[CHEN Yaning,LI Zhi,FAN Yuting,et al. Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(9):1295-1304.]
[14]刘昌明,张丹.中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化特征分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):579-588.[LIU Changming,ZHANG Dan. Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological influencing factors in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(5):579-588.]
[15]郭慕萍,王志伟,秦爱民,等. 54年来中国西北地区降水量的变化[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(1):120-125.[GUO Muping,WANG Zhiwei,QIN Aimin,et al. Changes in precipitation in Northwest China over the last 54 Years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2009,26(1):120-125.]
[16]徐永明,赵巧华,巴雅尔,等.基于MODIS数据的博斯腾湖流域地表蒸散时空变化[J].地理科学,2012,32(11):1353-1357.[XU Yongming,ZHAO Qiaohua,BA Yaer,et al. Spatio-temporal variations of land surface evapotranspiration of Bosten Lake basin based on MODIS data[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(11):1353-1357.]
[17]新疆荒地资源综合考察队.博斯腾湖的咸化原因及其控制途径[J].地理学报,1982,37(2):144-153.[Investigation Group of Desert in Xinjiang. The reasons of salinization and its control treatment[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,1982,37(2):144-153.]
[18]赵景峰.中国新疆博斯腾湖的水盐收支及湖水循环[D].东京:东京海洋大学,2002.[ZHAO Jingfeng. Estimination of the water-salt budgets and simulation of the wind-induced water-currents in Lake-Bosten[D]. Tokyo:Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology,2002.]
[19] XU C Y,SINGH V P. Evaluation and generalization of temperaturebased methods for calculating evaporation[J]. Hydrolohical Processes,2001,15(2):305-319.
[20] MCCUEN R H. A sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation[J]. Water Resource Bulletin,1974,10(3):486-498.
[21] ZHENG H,ZHANG L,ZHU R,et al. Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwater of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Water Resources Research,2009,45(7):W00A19.
[22]梁丽乔,李丽娟,李九一,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5.[LIANG Liqiao,LI Lijuan,LI Jiuyi,et al. Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2008,24(5):1-5.]
[23]孙鹏,张强,陈晓宏等.潘阳湖流域水沙时空演变特征及其机理[J].地理学报,2010,65(7):828-840.[SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,CHENG Xiaohong,et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of sediment and runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin and underlying causes[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(7):828-840.]
[24] LI Hongjun,JIANG Zhihong,YANG Qing. Association of north Atlantic oscillations with Aksu River runoff in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Science,2009,19(1):12-24.
[25]杨青,雷加强,魏文寿,等.人工绿洲对夏季气候变化趋势的影响[J].生态学报,2004,24(12):2728-2734.[YANG Qing,LEI Jiaqiang,WEI Wenshou,et al. Effects of artificial oases on climate change trend[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2004,24(12):2728-2834.]
[26]胡和平,汤秋鸿,雷志栋,等.干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型——I模型结构[J].水科学进展,2004,15(2):140-145.[HU Heping,TANG Qiuhong,LEI Zhidong,et al. Runoff evaporation hydrological model for arid plain oasis:I The model structure[J]. Advances in Water Science,2004,15(2):140-145.]