厄尔尼诺对长江中下游地区夏季持续性降水结构的影响及其可能机理
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摘要
根据中国国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年2400多站的逐日降水观测数据,分析了厄尔尼诺对长江中下游地区夏季持续性降水结构的影响。发现长江中下游地区的降水主要以5d及以内的降水事件为主,其强度主要分布在4—24mm/d;5d以上降水所占比例相对较小,而其强度主要分布在12—24mm/d。其中,长江中下游地区夏季大于5d的降水事件(长持续性降水事件)所占比例和强度在长江以南地区要大于长江以北地区。同时,在厄尔尼诺的影响下,长江以南地区的降水结构从2—5d持续性降水事件(短持续性降水事件)和1d的降水事件(非持续性降水事件)向长持续性降水事件转变,且其强度增加。而长江以北地区,以湖北为主,降水结构存在从非持续性向短持续性降水事件转变的现象,短持续性降水事件的强度也略有增强。因此,厄尔尼诺使得长江中下游地区的降水事件更多地以持续性降水为主,不同持续性降水事件的强度加强。进一步分析发现厄尔尼诺次年西太平洋副热带高压西伸加强,与其相关的东南季风所输送的水汽也有所加强。同时,中高纬度阻塞高压环流形势稳定维持。受这些因子的共同作用,最终导致长江中下游地区夏季降水持续性延长和降水强度加强。而这将给长江中下游地区的农作物种植和经济发展等带来较严重的影响,使防洪、防涝工作面临严峻的挑战。
The impacts of El Nio on summer persistent precipitation structure in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYZR)are analysised based on daily gauge precipitation data collected at more than 2400 stations from 1961 to2016.Precipitation events are found to mainly persist for 1 to 5 days with intensity ranging from 4 to 24 mm/d,while the precipitation events persisting beyond 5 days are relatively less with intensity ranging from 12 to 24 mm/d.The frequency and intensity of long persistent events(LPE:>5 days)are larger to the south of the Yangtze River than to the north.Furthermore,the structure of persistent precipitation is found to change under the impact of El Nio.To the south of the MLRYZR,precipitation events have changed from short(SPE:2 to 5 days)and non-persistent events(NPE:1 day)to LPE,and the intensity of LPE enhences.To the north of the MLRYZR,precipitation events have changed from NPE to SPE,especially in Hubei province,and the intensity of SPE slightly increases.Hence,El Nio can enhence the persistence and intensity of precipitation events.Further analysis shows that El Nio can promote the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high,resulting in abundant water vapor transport from the northwest of the subtropical high to MLRYZR.Meanwhile,the block high remains stable in the middle and high latitudes.These mechanisms finally lead to enhancements in persistence and intensity of precipitation events,bringing serious influences on agriculture and economy in MLRYZR.
The impacts of El Nio on summer persistent precipitation structure in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYZR)are analysised based on daily gauge precipitation data collected at more than 2400 stations from 1961 to2016.Precipitation events are found to mainly persist for 1 to 5 days with intensity ranging from 4 to 24 mm/d,while the precipitation events persisting beyond 5 days are relatively less with intensity ranging from 12 to 24 mm/d.The frequency and intensity of long persistent events(LPE:>5 days)are larger to the south of the Yangtze River than to the north.Furthermore,the structure of persistent precipitation is found to change under the impact of El Nio.To the south of the MLRYZR,precipitation events have changed from short(SPE:2 to 5 days)and non-persistent events(NPE:1 day)to LPE,and the intensity of LPE enhences.To the north of the MLRYZR,precipitation events have changed from NPE to SPE,especially in Hubei province,and the intensity of SPE slightly increases.Hence,El Nio can enhence the persistence and intensity of precipitation events.Further analysis shows that El Nio can promote the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high,resulting in abundant water vapor transport from the northwest of the subtropical high to MLRYZR.Meanwhile,the block high remains stable in the middle and high latitudes.These mechanisms finally lead to enhancements in persistence and intensity of precipitation events,bringing serious influences on agriculture and economy in MLRYZR.
引文
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Chen W,Feng J,Wu R G.2013.Roles of ENSO and PDO in the link of the East Asian winter monsoon to the following summer monsoon.J Climate,26(2):622-635
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Karori M A,Li J P,Jin F F.2013.The asymmetric influence of the two types of El Ni珘no and La Ni珘na on summer rainfall over Southeast China.J Climate,26(13):4567-4582
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Li Y,Jin R H,Wang S G.2010.Possible relationship between EN-SO and blocking in key regions of Eurasia.J Trop Meteor,16(3):221-230
Petrova D,Koopman S J,Ballester J,et al.2016.Improving the long-lead predictability of El Ni珘no using a novel forecasting scheme based on a dynamic components model.Climate Dyn,48(3-4):1249-1276
Renwick J A.1998.ENSO-related variability in the frequency of South Pacific blocking.Mon Wea Rev,126(12):3117-3123
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Wang B,Zhang Q.2002.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection.Part II:How the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Ni珘no development.J Climate,15(22):3252-3265
Wang C E.2013.Impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols on clouds and precipitation:A review of recent progresses.Atmos Res,122(3):237-249
Wiedenmann J M,Lupo A R,Mokhov I I,et al.2002.The climatology of blocking anticyclones for the northern and southern Hemispheres:Block intensity as a diagnostic.J Climate,15(23):3459-3473
Wu Y J,Gough W A,Jiang T,et al.2006.The variation of floods in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and its teleconnection with El Ni珘no events.Adv Geosci,6(6):201-205
Yang J L,Liu Q Y,Xie S P,et al.2007.Impact of the Indian O-cean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon.Geophys Res Lett,34(2):L02708
Zhai P M,Yu R,Guo Y J,et al.2016.The strong El Ni珘no of2015/16and its dominant impacts on global and Chinas climate.Acta Meteor Sinica,2016,30(3):283-297
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al.2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China.J Climate,18(7):1096-1108
Zhang Q,Li J F,Singh V P,et al.2012.Changing structure of the precipitation process during 1960-2005in Xinjiang,China.Theor Appl Climatol,110(1-2):229-244
Zhang Q,Peng J T,Xu C Y,et al.2014.Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation regimes across Yangtze River Basin,China.Theor Appl Climatol,115(3-4):703-712
Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.1996.Impact of El Ni珘no on the East Asian monsoon:A diagnostic study of the86/87and91/92events.J Meteor Soc Japan Ser.II,74(1):49-62
Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.1999.A diagnostic study of the impact of El Ni珘no on the precipitation in China.Adv Atmos Sci,16(2):229-241
Zhang R H,Li T R,Wen M,et al.2015.Role of intraseasonal oscillation in asymmetric impacts of El Ni珘no and La Ni珘na on the rainfall over southern China in boreal winter.Climate Dyn,45(3-4):559-567
Zhang R H,Min Q Y,Su J Z.2017.Impact of El Ni珘no on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China:Role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone.Sci China Earth Sci,60(6):1124-1132
Zhang W J,Li H Y,Stuecker M F,et al.2016.A new understanding of El Ni珘nos impact over East Asia:Dominance of the ENSOcombination mode.J Climate,29(12):4347-4359
Zhao Y,Zhang H Q.2016.Impacts of SST Warming in tropical Indian Ocean on CMIP5model-projected summer rainfall changes over Central Asia.Climate Dyn,46(9-10):3223-3238
Zolina O,Simmer C,Gulev S K,et al.2010.Changing structure of European precipitation:longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls.Geophys Res Lett,37(6):L06704
张人禾.1999.El Ni珘no盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用.高原气象,18(4):567-574.Zhang RH.1999.The role of Indian summer monsoon water vapor transportation on the summer rainfall anomalies in the northern part of China during the El Ni珘no mature phase.Plateau Meteor,18(4):567-574(in Chinese)
中国气象局.2017.2016年中国气候公报.北京:中国气象局,1-52.China Meteorological Administration.2017.China Climate Bulletin 2016.Beijing:China Meteorological Administration,1-52(in Chinese)
Alberta T L,Colucci S J,Davenport J C.1991.Rapid 500-mb cyclogenesis and anticyclogenesis.Mon Wea Rev,119(5):1186-1204
Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.J Geophys Res Atmos,111(D5):D05109
Chen W,Feng J,Wu R G.2013.Roles of ENSO and PDO in the link of the East Asian winter monsoon to the following summer monsoon.J Climate,26(2):622-635
Chen Y,Zhai P M.2014a.Changing structure of wet periods across southwest China during 1961-2012.Climate Res,61(2):123-131
Chen Y,Zhai P M.2014b.Two types of typical circulation pattern for persistent extreme precipitation in Central-Eastern China.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,140(682):1467-1478
Cohen J.2016.Weather forecasting:El Ni珘no dons winter disguise as La Ni珘na.Nature,533(7602):179
Dai A G.2011.Drought under global warming:A review.Wiley Interdisc Rev Climate Change,2(1):45-65
Dai A G.2013.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models.Nat Climate Change,3(1):52-58
Huang R H,Chen W,Yang B L,et al.2004.Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle.Adv Atmos Sci,21(3):407-424
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471
Karori M A,Li J P,Jin F F.2013.The asymmetric influence of the two types of El Ni珘no and La Ni珘na on summer rainfall over Southeast China.J Climate,26(13):4567-4582
Key J R,Chan A C K.1999.Multidecadal global and regional trends in 1000 mb and 500 mb cyclone frequencies.Geophys Res Lett,26(14):2053-2056
Klein Tank A M G,K9nnen G P.2003.Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe,1946-99.JClimate,16(22):3665-3680
Lee J H,Julien P Y.2016.Teleconnections of the ENSO and South Korean precipitation patterns.J Hydrol,534:237-250
Li X,Meshgi A,Babovic V.2016.Spatio-temporal variation of wet and dry spell characteristics of tropical precipitation in Singapore and its association with ENSO.Int J Climatol,36(15):4831-4846
Li Y,Jin R H,Wang S G.2010.Possible relationship between EN-SO and blocking in key regions of Eurasia.J Trop Meteor,16(3):221-230
Petrova D,Koopman S J,Ballester J,et al.2016.Improving the long-lead predictability of El Ni珘no using a novel forecasting scheme based on a dynamic components model.Climate Dyn,48(3-4):1249-1276
Renwick J A.1998.ENSO-related variability in the frequency of South Pacific blocking.Mon Wea Rev,126(12):3117-3123
Renwick J A,Revell M J.1999.Blocking over the South Pacific and Rossby wave propagation.Mon Wea Rev,127(10):2233-2247
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H.2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?J Climate,13(9):1517-1536
Wang B,Zhang Q.2002.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection.Part II:How the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Ni珘no development.J Climate,15(22):3252-3265
Wang C E.2013.Impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols on clouds and precipitation:A review of recent progresses.Atmos Res,122(3):237-249
Wiedenmann J M,Lupo A R,Mokhov I I,et al.2002.The climatology of blocking anticyclones for the northern and southern Hemispheres:Block intensity as a diagnostic.J Climate,15(23):3459-3473
Wu Y J,Gough W A,Jiang T,et al.2006.The variation of floods in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and its teleconnection with El Ni珘no events.Adv Geosci,6(6):201-205
Yang J L,Liu Q Y,Xie S P,et al.2007.Impact of the Indian O-cean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon.Geophys Res Lett,34(2):L02708
Zhai P M,Yu R,Guo Y J,et al.2016.The strong El Ni珘no of2015/16and its dominant impacts on global and Chinas climate.Acta Meteor Sinica,2016,30(3):283-297
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al.2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China.J Climate,18(7):1096-1108
Zhang Q,Li J F,Singh V P,et al.2012.Changing structure of the precipitation process during 1960-2005in Xinjiang,China.Theor Appl Climatol,110(1-2):229-244
Zhang Q,Peng J T,Xu C Y,et al.2014.Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation regimes across Yangtze River Basin,China.Theor Appl Climatol,115(3-4):703-712
Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.1996.Impact of El Ni珘no on the East Asian monsoon:A diagnostic study of the86/87and91/92events.J Meteor Soc Japan Ser.II,74(1):49-62
Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.1999.A diagnostic study of the impact of El Ni珘no on the precipitation in China.Adv Atmos Sci,16(2):229-241
Zhang R H,Li T R,Wen M,et al.2015.Role of intraseasonal oscillation in asymmetric impacts of El Ni珘no and La Ni珘na on the rainfall over southern China in boreal winter.Climate Dyn,45(3-4):559-567
Zhang R H,Min Q Y,Su J Z.2017.Impact of El Ni珘no on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China:Role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone.Sci China Earth Sci,60(6):1124-1132
Zhang W J,Li H Y,Stuecker M F,et al.2016.A new understanding of El Ni珘nos impact over East Asia:Dominance of the ENSOcombination mode.J Climate,29(12):4347-4359
Zhao Y,Zhang H Q.2016.Impacts of SST Warming in tropical Indian Ocean on CMIP5model-projected summer rainfall changes over Central Asia.Climate Dyn,46(9-10):3223-3238
Zolina O,Simmer C,Gulev S K,et al.2010.Changing structure of European precipitation:longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls.Geophys Res Lett,37(6):L06704