联合GRACE和气象水文数据研究2010～2016年亚马孙平原水储量异常变化与极端气候和ENSO的关系
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摘要
利用GRACE时变重力场模型反演2009-07～2017-06期间亚马孙平原的水储量变化,在移除趋势和季节性周期信号后,计算得到其与ENSO指数之间具有较强的相关关系和一定的时延性,并从季节层面进行分析得到ENSO对亚马孙平原旱、雨两季的不同影响,表现为旱季受到ENSO显著影响而雨季受到的影响则较小。最后,结合水文数据分析指出,ENSO会通过影响降雨量进而影响相应区域的水储量变化,且该现象在流域内两次极端旱灾中有较为突出的表现。
Extreme weather events in the Amazon basin,which have occurred frequently in recent years,are generally considered to be associated with the abnormal change of rainfall,due to their strong correlation with each other.The occurrence of the El Nino/southern oscillation(ENSO)events are important factors leading to abnormal changes in rainfall.Because several extreme weather events since 2010 happened just after ENSO,it is very important to understand the impact of ENSO on the Amazon basin.Using GRACE gravity field solutions,the total water storage change(TWSC)in Amazon basin from July 2009 to April 2017 is estimated.The correlation between TWSC and ENSO index are proved to be strong with a certain time lag when trend and seasonal signals are removed.Then the different effects of ENSO on Amazon basin during dry and rainy seasons are analyzed.The results show that the dry season is significantly affected by ENSO while the rainy season is less affected.Finally,the results show that ENSO can affect TWSC in certain area by influencing the rainfall is found when combined with the hydroclimatic data analysis.This phenomenon is more prominent in the two extreme droughts in Amazon basin.
Extreme weather events in the Amazon basin,which have occurred frequently in recent years,are generally considered to be associated with the abnormal change of rainfall,due to their strong correlation with each other.The occurrence of the El Nino/southern oscillation(ENSO)events are important factors leading to abnormal changes in rainfall.Because several extreme weather events since 2010 happened just after ENSO,it is very important to understand the impact of ENSO on the Amazon basin.Using GRACE gravity field solutions,the total water storage change(TWSC)in Amazon basin from July 2009 to April 2017 is estimated.The correlation between TWSC and ENSO index are proved to be strong with a certain time lag when trend and seasonal signals are removed.Then the different effects of ENSO on Amazon basin during dry and rainy seasons are analyzed.The results show that the dry season is significantly affected by ENSO while the rainy season is less affected.Finally,the results show that ENSO can affect TWSC in certain area by influencing the rainfall is found when combined with the hydroclimatic data analysis.This phenomenon is more prominent in the two extreme droughts in Amazon basin.
引文
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[2] Long D,Scanlon B R,Longuevergne L,et al.GRACE Satellite Monitoring of Large Depletion in Water Storage in Response to the 2011Drought in Texas[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(13):3 395-3 401
[3] Ropelewski C F,Halpert M S.Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Ni1o/Southern Oscillation[J].Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(8):1 606-1 626
[4] Bookhagen B,Strecker M R. Modern Andean Rainfall Variation during ENSO Cycles and Its Impact on the Amazon Drainage Basin[A]//Amazonia:Landscape and Species Evolution:A Look into the Past[M].Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd,2011
[5] Bettadpur S.Assessment of GRACE Mission Performance and the RL05 Gravity Fields[C].Abstract G31C-02Fall Meeting,AGU,San Francisco,2012
[6] Bettadpur S.Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Level-2Gravity Field Product User Handbook[M].Cent For Space Res,Austin,Texas,2007
[7] Swenson S,Chambers D,Wahr J.Estimating Geocenter Variations from a Combination of GRACE and Ocean Model Output[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2008,113(B8):194-205
[8] Dai A G,Trenberth K E,Qian T T.A Global Data Set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002:Relationshipwith Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2004,5(6):1 117-1 130
[9] Rodell M,Houser P R,Jambor U E A,et al.The Global Land Data Assimilation System[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2004,85(3):381-394
[10]Ek M B,Mitchell K E,Lin Y,et al.Implementation of the Upgraded Noah Land-Surface Model in the NCEP Operational Mesoscale Eta Model[J].J Geophys Res,2003,108:8 851
[11]Phillips T,Nerem R S,Fox-Kemper B,et al.The Influence of ENSO on Global Terrestrial Water Storage Using GRACE[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39(16):L16 705