北极东北航线油船运输经济性分析
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摘要
针对对北极资源和市场供需分析,依据海冰环境和通航趋势,建立东北航线ARC6冰级油船运输模式,采用航线里程、单位航次成本和必要运费率等进行东北航线和北极-苏伊士航线油船运输经济性比较,以净现值和内部收益率等分析ARC6冰级油船的经济性,并展望东北航线前景。研究结果表明:东北航线航程缩短、全年航次增加,单位航次成本和必要运费率偏高,破冰护航船收费阻碍商业通航,ARC6冰级油船的期租租金在2. 4万美元/d以上,得出东北航线全年油船运输暂时没有经济性优势,但气温上升和商业活动的持续,东北航线的成本不断降低,长期来看东北航线具有可行性的结论。
The transport mode of the ARC6 grade oil tanker is established based on the analysis of resources in the Arctic region and the supply and demand in the China market. The economy of crude oil tanker using Arctic Northeast Sea Route(NSR) is compared with that of Arctic-Suez route according to the route mileage,unit voyage cost,Necessary Freight Rate(NFR). The economy of ARC6 grade ice oil tanker is discussed from the angle of Net Present Value and internal rate of return. The prospect of the NSR is predicted. The research shows that the NSR shortens voyage distance obviously,therefore,the year voyage number can increase,but the unit voyage cost and the NFR are higher; Icebreaker charges will obstruct commercial navigation and an ARC6 grade oil tanker rent must be more than 24 000 USD/d to get return on investment. The conclusion is that there is no advantage in economy for crude oil tanker using NSR for the time being. However,as the climate becomes even warmer and the development of the commercial activities may develop,the cost of using the NSR will likely go down,and the crude oil tanker using NSR may be feasible someday.
The transport mode of the ARC6 grade oil tanker is established based on the analysis of resources in the Arctic region and the supply and demand in the China market. The economy of crude oil tanker using Arctic Northeast Sea Route(NSR) is compared with that of Arctic-Suez route according to the route mileage,unit voyage cost,Necessary Freight Rate(NFR). The economy of ARC6 grade ice oil tanker is discussed from the angle of Net Present Value and internal rate of return. The prospect of the NSR is predicted. The research shows that the NSR shortens voyage distance obviously,therefore,the year voyage number can increase,but the unit voyage cost and the NFR are higher; Icebreaker charges will obstruct commercial navigation and an ARC6 grade oil tanker rent must be more than 24 000 USD/d to get return on investment. The conclusion is that there is no advantage in economy for crude oil tanker using NSR for the time being. However,as the climate becomes even warmer and the development of the commercial activities may develop,the cost of using the NSR will likely go down,and the crude oil tanker using NSR may be feasible someday.
引文
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[2]孟上,李明,田忠翔,等.北极东北航道海冰变化特征分析研究[J].海洋预报,2013,30(2):8-13.
[3]钱作勤,徐立,严新平,等.北极东北航道通航策略及经济性研究[J].极地研究,2015,27(2):203-211.
[4]王斌.北极东北航道石油运输分析[J].中国海事,2017(1):32-35.
[5]范厚明,朱慧,刘益迎.北极通航对中国原油进口海运的影响——兼论航运碳税的作用[J].国际贸易问题,2015(9):97-108.
[6] LINDSTAD H,BRIGHT R M,STRΦMMAN A H. EcoNomic Savings Linked to Future Arctic Shipping Trade are at Odds with Climate Change Mitigation[J]. Transport Polocy,2016(45):24-30.
[7]骆巧云,寿建敏.北极东北航道LNG运输经济性与前景分析[J].大连海事大学学报,2016,42(3):49-55.
[8]邹志强.北极航道对全球能源贸易格局的影响[J].南京政治学院学报,2014,30(1):75-80.
[9]张东江.北极航区分析及极区船舶总体性能研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2012:9-11.
[10]中华人民共和国海事局.北极航行指南(东北航道)2014[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2014:250-300.
[11]张晓,赵庆爱.对我国商船首航北极东北航道的回顾和展望[J].中国航海,2015,38(3):102-107.
[12]谢新连,滕亚辉,高峰,等.进口原油运输船型经济性分析[J].中国航海,2001,48(1):77-83.
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