一种地震应急响应级别判定方法
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摘要
破坏性地震发生后,相关部门根据地震应急预案启动地震应急响应,由于难以在第一时间得到准确和全面的灾情信息,因此支撑地震应急响应级别的判定因素有限。本文通过专家调查法,梳理出影响地震应急响应级别判定的关键因子,并对其赋予一定的权值,得到地震应急响应级别的阀值。当地震发生后,采用专家打分的形式计算出1个地震应急响应级别的判定值,通过判定值和阀值区间的关系,判定地震应急响应级别。最后,抽取了2011年以来云南境内发生的10次破坏性地震作为检验样本,结果证明该方法对应率较高,具有一定的适用性。
As soon as a destructive earthquake occurs, the earthquake emergency response needs to be taken by the government according to the emergency plan. Since it is very difficult for decision-makers to obtain accurate or overall disaster information in short time, it is not easy to determined the level of earthquake emergency response.To solve this problem, we use Delphi method to sort out some key factors which are important in determination of the emergency-response level, and then assign these factors with certain weights. In this study, we set up the threshold of each response level. When an earthquake occurs, we firstly calculate the evaluation values of the emergency-response level on the basis of judgement by experts. Then, after comparing the evaluation values with the threshold, we determine the response level. In verification of our method, we select 10 events of destructive earthquakes since 2011 in Yunnan province, and use our method to obtain theoretical levels of emergency response of these events. The levels determined by our method are in good agreement with the levels which have been taken in practice.
As soon as a destructive earthquake occurs, the earthquake emergency response needs to be taken by the government according to the emergency plan. Since it is very difficult for decision-makers to obtain accurate or overall disaster information in short time, it is not easy to determined the level of earthquake emergency response.To solve this problem, we use Delphi method to sort out some key factors which are important in determination of the emergency-response level, and then assign these factors with certain weights. In this study, we set up the threshold of each response level. When an earthquake occurs, we firstly calculate the evaluation values of the emergency-response level on the basis of judgement by experts. Then, after comparing the evaluation values with the threshold, we determine the response level. In verification of our method, we select 10 events of destructive earthquakes since 2011 in Yunnan province, and use our method to obtain theoretical levels of emergency response of these events. The levels determined by our method are in good agreement with the levels which have been taken in practice.
引文
白仙富,戴雨芡,余庆坤等,2015.地震滑坡危险性评估模型及初步应用.地震研究,38(2):301-312.
蔡俊,2011.我国应对破坏性地震的震后应急响应研究.上海:上海交通大学.
范开红,周志华,陈维锋,2017.四川地震应急准备与处置要点分析.震灾防御技术,12(4):956-965.
葛美玲,封志明,2009.中国人口分布的密度分级与重心曲线特征分析.地理学报,64(2):202-210.
洪海春,尤捷,陶小三等,2015.2014年云南鲁甸地震和景谷地震的震害对比研究.地震工程学报,37(4):1013-1022.
皇甫岗,苏有锦,张建国等,2014.新世纪滇缅交界大震活动研究.昆明:云南科技出版社.
贾娜,周一星,2006.中国城市人均GDP差异影响因素的分析.中国软科学,(8):109-118.
姜立新,帅向华,聂高众等,2012.地震应急指挥协同技术平台设计研究.震灾防御技术,7(3):294-302.
刘睿文,封志明,杨艳昭等,2010.基于人口集聚度的中国人口集疏格局.地理科学进展,29(10):1171-1177.
刘在涛,李洋,2010.通过玉树地震解析中国地震应急响应机制.中国应急救援,(5):18-21.
刘在涛,王栋梁,张维佳等,2011.基于贝叶斯判别分析的地震应急响应等级初判方法.地震,31(2):114-121.
徐国祥,2008.统计预测和决策(3版).上海:上海财经大学出版社.
云南省统计局,2016.云南统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社.
张彦琪,陈维锋,卢永坤等,2017.2014年云南3次M>6地震灾害特征对比分析.地震研究,40(1):144-152.
中国建筑科学研究院,2010.GB 50011-2010建筑抗震设计规范.北京:中国建筑工业出版社.
1国务院,2011.破坏性地震应急条例(2011年1月8日修正).
2国务院,2012.国家地震应急预案(2012年8月28日修订).
1国务院,2014.关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知.
1云南省地震局,2011-2017.5.0级以上破坏性地震灾害损失评估报告.
蔡俊,2011.我国应对破坏性地震的震后应急响应研究.上海:上海交通大学.
范开红,周志华,陈维锋,2017.四川地震应急准备与处置要点分析.震灾防御技术,12(4):956-965.
葛美玲,封志明,2009.中国人口分布的密度分级与重心曲线特征分析.地理学报,64(2):202-210.
洪海春,尤捷,陶小三等,2015.2014年云南鲁甸地震和景谷地震的震害对比研究.地震工程学报,37(4):1013-1022.
皇甫岗,苏有锦,张建国等,2014.新世纪滇缅交界大震活动研究.昆明:云南科技出版社.
贾娜,周一星,2006.中国城市人均GDP差异影响因素的分析.中国软科学,(8):109-118.
姜立新,帅向华,聂高众等,2012.地震应急指挥协同技术平台设计研究.震灾防御技术,7(3):294-302.
刘睿文,封志明,杨艳昭等,2010.基于人口集聚度的中国人口集疏格局.地理科学进展,29(10):1171-1177.
刘在涛,李洋,2010.通过玉树地震解析中国地震应急响应机制.中国应急救援,(5):18-21.
刘在涛,王栋梁,张维佳等,2011.基于贝叶斯判别分析的地震应急响应等级初判方法.地震,31(2):114-121.
徐国祥,2008.统计预测和决策(3版).上海:上海财经大学出版社.
云南省统计局,2016.云南统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社.
张彦琪,陈维锋,卢永坤等,2017.2014年云南3次M>6地震灾害特征对比分析.地震研究,40(1):144-152.
中国建筑科学研究院,2010.GB 50011-2010建筑抗震设计规范.北京:中国建筑工业出版社.
1国务院,2011.破坏性地震应急条例(2011年1月8日修正).
2国务院,2012.国家地震应急预案(2012年8月28日修订).
1国务院,2014.关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知.
1云南省地震局,2011-2017.5.0级以上破坏性地震灾害损失评估报告.