突发事故环境风险评价研究进展分析与展望
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摘要
随着时代的经济发展,我国突发性事故不断增加,事故的环境风险评价成为新的研究领域,成果众多。本文分别梳理了突发性事故与环境风险评价两种概念的国内外研究成果,进而引出对突发性事故的环境风险评价研究进展的概述与浅析,总结了相关方法,提出目前研究以单个项目为主,缺乏泛用性,或者以大水域等大范围为主,缺乏细节研究,难以推广等缺陷,并对未来研究作出展望,认为应向复合环境污染发展,向非化学因子研究发展,同时考察不同形式的污染对人体健康的影响,并加入生物层面,进一步优化研究模型。
With the economic developing more and more fast and the increase of emergency accidents in China, the environmental risk assessment of accidents has become the new research field, and the results of these are numerous. This paper reviews the domestic and international studies of emergent accidents and environmental risk assessment,and introduces the review and brief analysis of the development of environmental risk assessment of emergent accidents,for summarizing related methods. The paper also puts forward the shortcoming of those reserches,which is most present researches are mainly based on single project or large scale,lack of general use and detail research. In conclusion,the new researches should consider the compound pollution of the environment development, the chemical factors, and investigate the effects of different forms of pollution on human health, and add a biological level, with optimizing the research model.
With the economic developing more and more fast and the increase of emergency accidents in China, the environmental risk assessment of accidents has become the new research field, and the results of these are numerous. This paper reviews the domestic and international studies of emergent accidents and environmental risk assessment,and introduces the review and brief analysis of the development of environmental risk assessment of emergent accidents,for summarizing related methods. The paper also puts forward the shortcoming of those reserches,which is most present researches are mainly based on single project or large scale,lack of general use and detail research. In conclusion,the new researches should consider the compound pollution of the environment development, the chemical factors, and investigate the effects of different forms of pollution on human health, and add a biological level, with optimizing the research model.
引文
[1]杜喜臣.化工行业环境风险评价方法的研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.
[2]吴侃侃.海岸带区域战略决策的环境风险评价研究[D].厦门:厦门大学,2012.
[3]S.Contini,Risk Analysis in Evironmental Impaet Studies[J],“Evironmental Impact Assessment”(G Colomha ed.),ECSE,EEC,EAEC,1992(5):79~103.
[4]Jenkins L.Selecting scenarios for environmental disaster planning[J].General Information,2000,121(2):275-286.
[5]胡国华,夏军.风险分析的灰色-随机风险率方法研究[J].水利学报,2001,(04):1-6.
[6]曾光明,何理,黄国和等.河流水环境突发性与非突发性风险分析比较研究[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):13-15.
[7]Price J M,Johnson W R,Marshall C F,et al.Overview of the Oil Spill Risk Analysis(OSRA)Model for Environmental Impact Assessment[J].Spill Science&Technology Bulletin,2003,8(5-6):529-533.
[8]Bassem EL Zoghbi,Rafael Estevez.Modelling slow crack growth in ceramics and investigation of environmental effects[A].ICF13 Beijing、The International Congress on Fracture(ICF).13th International Conference on Fracture(ICF13)Abstract Book[C].ICF13Beijing、The International Congress on Fracture(ICF),2013,02.
[9]李如忠,钱家忠,汪家权.基于未确知模拟信息的河流水质风险评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005,27(l):62-66.
[10]王丽萍,周晓蔚,李继.饮用水源污染风险评价的模糊~随机模型研究[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008,48(9):69-72.
[11]Chirila E,Draghici C.Risk Assessment of Mixtures of Chemical Pollutants in the Environment[J].Nato Science for Peace&Security,2009(6):51-67.
[12]Hahn,R.W.Risks,Costs,and Lives Saved,Getting Better Results from Regulation[M].London:Oxford University Press,1990.
[13]Fedra.K.Integrated risk assessment and management:overview and state of the art[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,1998,(61):1-22.
[14]Balagopalan.M.Communication of health risk assessment by integrating geographic information system(GIS)with computer dispersion models.19th Annual ESRI international User Conference[M].San Diego.CA.ESRI,1999.
[15]Dent.A.,Fowler.D.Using GIS to study the health impact of air emission[J].Drug and Chemical technology,2000,23(1):161-178.
[16]Rehan Sadiqa,Tahir Husain A Fussy-based Methodology for An Aggregative Environmental Risk Assessment:A Case Study of Drilling Waste[J].Environmental Modelling and Software,2005,(20):33-46.
[17]C.Jelescu,C.Dima,C.Draghici.Case Study on Gas Station Enviromental Qualitative Risk Assessment.Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology.2009(6):335-344.
[18]彭王敏子.规划环评中环境风险评价方法的探究与实践[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[19]孙燕君,钱瑜,张玉超.蒙特卡洛分析在氯气泄漏事故环境风险评价中的应用研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,(11):2570-2577.
[20]张珂,刘仁志,张志娇,胡兰群,贾中富,卓玉侠.流域突发性水污染事故风险评价方法及其应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2014,(04):675-684.
[21]邓慧,姜文选.废弃物填埋场环境风险评价分析[J].环境卫生工程,2014,(02):18-21.
[22]陈小红,涂新军一个水质风险率计算的随机模型[J].环境科学学报,2000,20(3):290-293.
[23]Emerson S D,Nadeau J.A coastal perspective on security[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2003,104(13):1-13.
[24]张羽.城市水源地突发性水污染事件风险评价体系及方法的实证研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2006.
[25]金菊良,吴开亚,李如忠.环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数秘合模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(11):1257-1261+1266.
[26]G.Dura/E.Laszlo,B.Reizer,etal.Tentative Hazard Assessment of Industrial Facilities.Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology[J].2009(8):195-207.
[27]L.Simeonov.Environmental Epidemiology as a Method for Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution.Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology[J].2009(10):227-232.
[28]T.Molnar,G.Dura.Environmental Effect Assessment of Organic Pbt Compounds[J].Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology.2009(12):271-284.
[29]Choi K W,Lee J H W,Kwok K W H,et al.Integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment of the harbour area treatment scheme(HATS)in Hong Kong[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2009,43(10):3705-3711.
[30]A.J.D.Brito,C.A.V.Cavalcante,R.J.P.Ferreira,et al.Multicriteria risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines.Safety,Reliability and Risk Analysis:Theory,Methods and Applications,Vols 1-4.2009(6):1165-1172.
[31]邹培根.邻水区域化工投资项目突发性水污染风险与安全环保准入研究[D].镇江:江苏大学,2009.
[32]刘杨华.基于安全理论的突发性水污染事故环境风险源识别研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2011.
[33]王亚男,李磊.突发性环境污染事故风险的模糊综合评价[J].统计与决策,2011,(19):46-49.
[34]唐行鹏,刘宝玲,尤宏,李二平.流域突发性水污染事故风险分区方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,(01):276-280.
[35]马书明,张树深,郑洪波,匡文慧.跨界突发性大气污染防范及应急系统设计与实现[J].大连理工大学学报,2013,(01):24-28.
[36]张俊明,袁鹏,郭继香,许伟宁,宋永会.基于MATLAB模拟的石化企业蒸馏装置泄漏扩散环境风险分析[J].环境工程技术学报,2013,(03):259-265.
[37]冷朋波,王群利,王爱红,毛国传,马立科,朱晓卓.高斯烟羽扩散模型在化工装置突发煤气泄漏的环境健康风险评估中的应用[J].环境卫生学杂志,2013,(03):186-190.
[38]康利荥,纪文娟,徐景阳.基于MIKE11与EFDC模型的突发性水污染事故预测模拟研究[J].环境保护科学,2013,(02):29-33.
[2]吴侃侃.海岸带区域战略决策的环境风险评价研究[D].厦门:厦门大学,2012.
[3]S.Contini,Risk Analysis in Evironmental Impaet Studies[J],“Evironmental Impact Assessment”(G Colomha ed.),ECSE,EEC,EAEC,1992(5):79~103.
[4]Jenkins L.Selecting scenarios for environmental disaster planning[J].General Information,2000,121(2):275-286.
[5]胡国华,夏军.风险分析的灰色-随机风险率方法研究[J].水利学报,2001,(04):1-6.
[6]曾光明,何理,黄国和等.河流水环境突发性与非突发性风险分析比较研究[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):13-15.
[7]Price J M,Johnson W R,Marshall C F,et al.Overview of the Oil Spill Risk Analysis(OSRA)Model for Environmental Impact Assessment[J].Spill Science&Technology Bulletin,2003,8(5-6):529-533.
[8]Bassem EL Zoghbi,Rafael Estevez.Modelling slow crack growth in ceramics and investigation of environmental effects[A].ICF13 Beijing、The International Congress on Fracture(ICF).13th International Conference on Fracture(ICF13)Abstract Book[C].ICF13Beijing、The International Congress on Fracture(ICF),2013,02.
[9]李如忠,钱家忠,汪家权.基于未确知模拟信息的河流水质风险评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005,27(l):62-66.
[10]王丽萍,周晓蔚,李继.饮用水源污染风险评价的模糊~随机模型研究[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008,48(9):69-72.
[11]Chirila E,Draghici C.Risk Assessment of Mixtures of Chemical Pollutants in the Environment[J].Nato Science for Peace&Security,2009(6):51-67.
[12]Hahn,R.W.Risks,Costs,and Lives Saved,Getting Better Results from Regulation[M].London:Oxford University Press,1990.
[13]Fedra.K.Integrated risk assessment and management:overview and state of the art[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,1998,(61):1-22.
[14]Balagopalan.M.Communication of health risk assessment by integrating geographic information system(GIS)with computer dispersion models.19th Annual ESRI international User Conference[M].San Diego.CA.ESRI,1999.
[15]Dent.A.,Fowler.D.Using GIS to study the health impact of air emission[J].Drug and Chemical technology,2000,23(1):161-178.
[16]Rehan Sadiqa,Tahir Husain A Fussy-based Methodology for An Aggregative Environmental Risk Assessment:A Case Study of Drilling Waste[J].Environmental Modelling and Software,2005,(20):33-46.
[17]C.Jelescu,C.Dima,C.Draghici.Case Study on Gas Station Enviromental Qualitative Risk Assessment.Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology.2009(6):335-344.
[18]彭王敏子.规划环评中环境风险评价方法的探究与实践[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[19]孙燕君,钱瑜,张玉超.蒙特卡洛分析在氯气泄漏事故环境风险评价中的应用研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,(11):2570-2577.
[20]张珂,刘仁志,张志娇,胡兰群,贾中富,卓玉侠.流域突发性水污染事故风险评价方法及其应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2014,(04):675-684.
[21]邓慧,姜文选.废弃物填埋场环境风险评价分析[J].环境卫生工程,2014,(02):18-21.
[22]陈小红,涂新军一个水质风险率计算的随机模型[J].环境科学学报,2000,20(3):290-293.
[23]Emerson S D,Nadeau J.A coastal perspective on security[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2003,104(13):1-13.
[24]张羽.城市水源地突发性水污染事件风险评价体系及方法的实证研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2006.
[25]金菊良,吴开亚,李如忠.环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数秘合模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(11):1257-1261+1266.
[26]G.Dura/E.Laszlo,B.Reizer,etal.Tentative Hazard Assessment of Industrial Facilities.Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology[J].2009(8):195-207.
[27]L.Simeonov.Environmental Epidemiology as a Method for Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution.Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology[J].2009(10):227-232.
[28]T.Molnar,G.Dura.Environmental Effect Assessment of Organic Pbt Compounds[J].Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemical Pollution-Contemporary Methodology.2009(12):271-284.
[29]Choi K W,Lee J H W,Kwok K W H,et al.Integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment of the harbour area treatment scheme(HATS)in Hong Kong[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2009,43(10):3705-3711.
[30]A.J.D.Brito,C.A.V.Cavalcante,R.J.P.Ferreira,et al.Multicriteria risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines.Safety,Reliability and Risk Analysis:Theory,Methods and Applications,Vols 1-4.2009(6):1165-1172.
[31]邹培根.邻水区域化工投资项目突发性水污染风险与安全环保准入研究[D].镇江:江苏大学,2009.
[32]刘杨华.基于安全理论的突发性水污染事故环境风险源识别研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2011.
[33]王亚男,李磊.突发性环境污染事故风险的模糊综合评价[J].统计与决策,2011,(19):46-49.
[34]唐行鹏,刘宝玲,尤宏,李二平.流域突发性水污染事故风险分区方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,(01):276-280.
[35]马书明,张树深,郑洪波,匡文慧.跨界突发性大气污染防范及应急系统设计与实现[J].大连理工大学学报,2013,(01):24-28.
[36]张俊明,袁鹏,郭继香,许伟宁,宋永会.基于MATLAB模拟的石化企业蒸馏装置泄漏扩散环境风险分析[J].环境工程技术学报,2013,(03):259-265.
[37]冷朋波,王群利,王爱红,毛国传,马立科,朱晓卓.高斯烟羽扩散模型在化工装置突发煤气泄漏的环境健康风险评估中的应用[J].环境卫生学杂志,2013,(03):186-190.
[38]康利荥,纪文娟,徐景阳.基于MIKE11与EFDC模型的突发性水污染事故预测模拟研究[J].环境保护科学,2013,(02):29-33.
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