中国的城市化推进与雾霾治理
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摘要
本文利用卫星监测的夜间灯光数据构造的灯光复合指数和PM_(2.5)浓度分别表征城市化水平和雾霾污染程度,就城市化对中国雾霾污染的影响及其作用机制进行了实证考察。特别检验了紧凑集约型和规模扩张型两种城市化推进模式对雾霾污染的异质性影响。研究显示:就全国整体而言,城市化水平与雾霾污染之间并不存在显著的"倒U"型曲线关系,而是表现出明显的正向单调线性关系,表明城市化进程尚处于加剧雾霾污染的阶段,稳健性检验结果强化了这一结论;东部地区的城市化水平与雾霾污染之间存在显著的"倒U"型曲线关系,表明雾霾污染加剧并非城市化推进的必然结果而是其阶段性表现;紧凑集约型的城市化深度推进模式对雾霾污染具有显著的促降效应,而规模扩张型的城市化广度推进模式则不利于抑制雾霾污染;集聚效应和结构效应是城市化影响雾霾污染的主要途径。
Since the reform and opening up of China, rapid economic development has come at the cost of massive energy consumption and serious environmental pollution. In recent years, frequent air pollution has raised concerns among the public, government, and scholars. The haze pollution problem is especially acute in China's more urbanized regions. Hence, more attention should be paid to the potential effects of China's accelerated urbanization. Whether haze pollution is exacerbated in the process of urbanization is an important issue that warrants detailed investigation. However, prior studies have not provided clear empirical evidence or suggested mechanisms to explain this issue. Using provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2013, this paper constructs a composite index of night-light data and PM_(2.5) concentration from satellite monitoring to measure, respectively, the level of urbanization and degree of haze pollution. We examine the different influences of two kinds of urbanization promotion modes(i.e., compact intensive pattern and scale expansion pattern) on haze pollution. The results indicate that China's haze pollution has a significant spatial spillover effect. After controlling for this effect and the endogeneity problem, we find a significantly positive relationship between haze pollution and urbanization, rather than an inverted U-shaped curve relationship. This indicates that China's urbanization process is still exacerbating haze pollution. However, regional sample analyses indicate that there is a significant inverted U-shaped curve relationship in eastern China. This implies that the aggravation of haze pollution is a phased phenomenon with accelerated urbanization rather than an inevitable outcome of urbanization, and that haze pollution can decouple from urbanization under some conditions. Mechanism analyses show that the agglomeration effect and the structural effect are the two main transmission channels through which urbanization affects haze pollution, while the mediating effect of technical progress is not statistically significant. These findings have important policy implications for haze pollution abatement against the backdrop of China's accelerated urbanization. We advise the government to adhere to the principle of regional joint defense and control for haze pollution governance and give priority to compact cities, restricting the blind expansion of city scale. Generally, achieving the win-win of urbanization promotion and haze pollution reduction is a complex and systematic project. Our findings suggest that decoupling urbanization and haze pollution as soon as possible will require changing the current mode of extensive urbanization.The marginal contributions of this paper lie in the following four aspects. First, we build a novel and comprehensive indicator of urbanization based on global night-light data monitored by satellites because of the drawbacks(i.e., institutional deficiency and statistical error) of the more traditional urbanization measure of urban population proportion. Second, we take river length, wildfire activity, and birth rate as instrumental variables of urbanization to further control for the endogeneity problem and obtain robust results. Third, we identify the different impacts of two urbanization modes(i.e., compact intensive pattern and scale expansion pattern) on haze pollution. For the first time, we confirm that the compact expansion pattern is conducive to reducing haze pollution, while the scale expansion pattern has the opposite effect. Fourth, we examine the mechanism of urbanization affecting haze pollution using the mediating effect model.
Since the reform and opening up of China, rapid economic development has come at the cost of massive energy consumption and serious environmental pollution. In recent years, frequent air pollution has raised concerns among the public, government, and scholars. The haze pollution problem is especially acute in China's more urbanized regions. Hence, more attention should be paid to the potential effects of China's accelerated urbanization. Whether haze pollution is exacerbated in the process of urbanization is an important issue that warrants detailed investigation. However, prior studies have not provided clear empirical evidence or suggested mechanisms to explain this issue. Using provincial-level panel data from 1998 to 2013, this paper constructs a composite index of night-light data and PM_(2.5) concentration from satellite monitoring to measure, respectively, the level of urbanization and degree of haze pollution. We examine the different influences of two kinds of urbanization promotion modes(i.e., compact intensive pattern and scale expansion pattern) on haze pollution. The results indicate that China's haze pollution has a significant spatial spillover effect. After controlling for this effect and the endogeneity problem, we find a significantly positive relationship between haze pollution and urbanization, rather than an inverted U-shaped curve relationship. This indicates that China's urbanization process is still exacerbating haze pollution. However, regional sample analyses indicate that there is a significant inverted U-shaped curve relationship in eastern China. This implies that the aggravation of haze pollution is a phased phenomenon with accelerated urbanization rather than an inevitable outcome of urbanization, and that haze pollution can decouple from urbanization under some conditions. Mechanism analyses show that the agglomeration effect and the structural effect are the two main transmission channels through which urbanization affects haze pollution, while the mediating effect of technical progress is not statistically significant. These findings have important policy implications for haze pollution abatement against the backdrop of China's accelerated urbanization. We advise the government to adhere to the principle of regional joint defense and control for haze pollution governance and give priority to compact cities, restricting the blind expansion of city scale. Generally, achieving the win-win of urbanization promotion and haze pollution reduction is a complex and systematic project. Our findings suggest that decoupling urbanization and haze pollution as soon as possible will require changing the current mode of extensive urbanization.The marginal contributions of this paper lie in the following four aspects. First, we build a novel and comprehensive indicator of urbanization based on global night-light data monitored by satellites because of the drawbacks(i.e., institutional deficiency and statistical error) of the more traditional urbanization measure of urban population proportion. Second, we take river length, wildfire activity, and birth rate as instrumental variables of urbanization to further control for the endogeneity problem and obtain robust results. Third, we identify the different impacts of two urbanization modes(i.e., compact intensive pattern and scale expansion pattern) on haze pollution. For the first time, we confirm that the compact expansion pattern is conducive to reducing haze pollution, while the scale expansion pattern has the opposite effect. Fourth, we examine the mechanism of urbanization affecting haze pollution using the mediating effect model.
引文
陈晋、卓莉、史培军、一之濑俊明,2003:《基于DMSP/OLS数据的中国城市化过程研究》,《遥感学报》第3期。
陈诗一、陈登科,2018:《雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展》,《经济研究》第2期。
程开明、李金昌,2007:《紧凑城市与可持续发展的中国实证》,《财经研究》第10期。
高金龙、陈江龙、苏曦,2013:《中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述》,《地理科学进展》第5期。
国务院发展研究中心和世界银行联合课题组,2014:《中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化》,《管理世界》第4期。
郝江北,2014:《雾霾产生的原因及对策》,《宏观经济管理》第3期。
江曼琦、席强敏,2015:《中国主要城市化地区测度——基于人口集聚视角》,《中国社会科学》第8期。
阚大学、罗良文,2010:《我国城市化对能源强度的影响——基于空间计量经济学的分析》,《当代财经》第3期。
李强、陈宇琳、刘精明,2012:《中国城镇化“推进模式”研究》,《中国社会科学》第7期。
林伯强、刘希颖,2010:《中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略》,《经济研究》第8期。
刘沁萍、田洪阵、杨永春,2012:《基于GIS和遥感的中国城市分布于自然环境关系的定量研究》,《地理科学》第6期。
陆铭、陈钊、王永钦、章元、张晏、罗长远,2008:《中国的大国经济发展道路》,中国大百科全书出版社。
陆益龙,2012:《户籍:一种对中国城市化制度性的扭曲》,《探索与争鸣》第12期。
马磊,2010:《中国城市化与环境质量研究》,《中国人口科学》第2期。
倪鹏飞、颜银根、张安全,2014:《城市化滞后之谜:基于国际贸易的解释》,《中国社会科学》第7期。
邵帅、李欣、曹建华、杨莉莉,2016:《中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择》,《经济研究》第9期。
邵帅、杨莉莉、黄涛,2013:《能源回弹效应的理论模型与中国经验》,《经济研究》第2期。
邵帅、张可、豆建民,2019:《经济集聚的节能减排效应:理论与中国经验》,《管理世界》第1期。
汤维祺、吴力波、钱浩祺,2016:《从“污染天堂”到绿色增长》,《经济研究》第6期。
陶然、徐志刚,2005:《城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障》,《经济研究》第12期。
童玉芬、王莹莹,2014:《中国城市人口与雾霾:相互作用机制路径分析》,《北京社会科学》第5期。
王亚菲,2011:《城市化对资源消耗和污染排放的影响分析》,《城市发展研究》第3期。
王垚、王春华、洪俊杰、年猛,2015:《自然条件、行政等级与中国城市发展》,《管理世界》第1期。
吴振磊、朱楠,2014:《中国雾霾天气治理的城市化方式的转变》,《西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第2期。
殷淑燕、黄春长,2006:《论关中盆地古代城市选址与渭河水文和河道变迁的关系》,《陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第1期。
Andreoni, J., and A. Levinson, 2001, “The Simple Analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Journal of Public Economics, 80(2),269—286.
Baron, R. M., and D. A. Kenny, 1986, “The Moderator-mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations”, Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 51, 1173—1182.
Burton, E., 2000, “The Compact City: Just or Just Compact? A Preliminary Analysis”, Urban Studies,37, 1969—2001.
Davis, J. C., and J. V. Henderson, 2003, “Evidence on the Political Economy of the Urbanization Process”, Journal of Urban Economics, 53(1),98—125.
Dietz, T., and E. A. Rosa, 1994, “Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology”, Human Ecology Review, 2 (1), 277—300.
Glaeser, E. L., and M. E. Kahn, 2010, “The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development”, Journal of Urban Economics, 67(3), 404—418.
Grossman, G., and A. Krueger, 1995, “Economic Environment and the Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics,110 (2), 353—377.
Han, L., W. Zhou, W. Li, and L. Li, 2014, “Impact of Urbanization Level on Urban Air Quality: A Case of Fine Particles (PM2.5) in Chinese Cities”, Environmental Pollution,194, 163—170.
Harris, J., and M. Todaro, 1970, “Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-sector Analysis”, American Economic Review, 60(1), 126—142.
Huber, J., 2000, “Towards Industrial Ecology: Sustainable Development as a Concept of Ecological Modernization”, Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 2(4), 269—285.
Jacobi, P., M. Kjellen, G. McGranahan, J. Songsore, and C. Surjadi, 2010, The Citizens at Risk: From Urban Sanitation to Sustainable Cities, Routledge.
Liu, Z., C. He, Q. Zhang, Q. Huang, and Y. Yang, 2012, “Extracting the Dynamics of Urban Expansion in China Using DMSP-OLS Nighttime Light Data from 1992 to 2008”, Landscape and Urban Planning, 106 (1), 62—72.
Lu, M., and Z. Chen, 2006, “Urbanization, Urban-Biased Policies, and Urban-Rural Inequality in China, 1987—2001”, Chinese Economy,39(3), 42—63.
Parikh, J., and V. Shukla, 1995, “Urbanization, Energy Use and Greenhouse Effects in Economic Development: Results from a Cross-national Study of Developing Countries”, Global Environmental Change,5(2), 87—103.
Reid, J. S., R. Koppmann, T. F. Eck, and D. P. Eleuterio, 2005, “A Review of Biomass Burning Emissions Part II: Intensive Physical Properties of Biomass Burning Particles”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 5, 799—825.
Roodman, D., 2009, “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata”, Stata Journal, 9(1), 86—136.
Sadorsky, P., 2014, “The Effect of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in Emerging Economies”, Energy Economics, 41, 147—153.
Shehata, E. A. E., 2012, “GS2SLS: Stata Module to Estimate Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares Cross Sections Regression”,Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics.
Xu, B., and B. Lin, 2015, “How Industrialization and Urbanization Process Impacts on CO2 Emissions in China: Evidence from Nonparametric Additive Regression Models”, Energy Economics,48, 188—202.
(1)该变量单位为次/万平方公里,其数据最早可能年份为2001年,因而用于稳健性检验的样本时间跨度为2001—2013年。
(2)1998—2013年,东、中、西部地区的年均人口城市化率分别为54.33%、42.84%和39.66%。
陈诗一、陈登科,2018:《雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展》,《经济研究》第2期。
程开明、李金昌,2007:《紧凑城市与可持续发展的中国实证》,《财经研究》第10期。
高金龙、陈江龙、苏曦,2013:《中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述》,《地理科学进展》第5期。
国务院发展研究中心和世界银行联合课题组,2014:《中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化》,《管理世界》第4期。
郝江北,2014:《雾霾产生的原因及对策》,《宏观经济管理》第3期。
江曼琦、席强敏,2015:《中国主要城市化地区测度——基于人口集聚视角》,《中国社会科学》第8期。
阚大学、罗良文,2010:《我国城市化对能源强度的影响——基于空间计量经济学的分析》,《当代财经》第3期。
李强、陈宇琳、刘精明,2012:《中国城镇化“推进模式”研究》,《中国社会科学》第7期。
林伯强、刘希颖,2010:《中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略》,《经济研究》第8期。
刘沁萍、田洪阵、杨永春,2012:《基于GIS和遥感的中国城市分布于自然环境关系的定量研究》,《地理科学》第6期。
陆铭、陈钊、王永钦、章元、张晏、罗长远,2008:《中国的大国经济发展道路》,中国大百科全书出版社。
陆益龙,2012:《户籍:一种对中国城市化制度性的扭曲》,《探索与争鸣》第12期。
马磊,2010:《中国城市化与环境质量研究》,《中国人口科学》第2期。
倪鹏飞、颜银根、张安全,2014:《城市化滞后之谜:基于国际贸易的解释》,《中国社会科学》第7期。
邵帅、李欣、曹建华、杨莉莉,2016:《中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择》,《经济研究》第9期。
邵帅、杨莉莉、黄涛,2013:《能源回弹效应的理论模型与中国经验》,《经济研究》第2期。
邵帅、张可、豆建民,2019:《经济集聚的节能减排效应:理论与中国经验》,《管理世界》第1期。
汤维祺、吴力波、钱浩祺,2016:《从“污染天堂”到绿色增长》,《经济研究》第6期。
陶然、徐志刚,2005:《城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障》,《经济研究》第12期。
童玉芬、王莹莹,2014:《中国城市人口与雾霾:相互作用机制路径分析》,《北京社会科学》第5期。
王亚菲,2011:《城市化对资源消耗和污染排放的影响分析》,《城市发展研究》第3期。
王垚、王春华、洪俊杰、年猛,2015:《自然条件、行政等级与中国城市发展》,《管理世界》第1期。
吴振磊、朱楠,2014:《中国雾霾天气治理的城市化方式的转变》,《西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第2期。
殷淑燕、黄春长,2006:《论关中盆地古代城市选址与渭河水文和河道变迁的关系》,《陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第1期。
Andreoni, J., and A. Levinson, 2001, “The Simple Analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Journal of Public Economics, 80(2),269—286.
Baron, R. M., and D. A. Kenny, 1986, “The Moderator-mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic, and Statistical Considerations”, Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 51, 1173—1182.
Burton, E., 2000, “The Compact City: Just or Just Compact? A Preliminary Analysis”, Urban Studies,37, 1969—2001.
Davis, J. C., and J. V. Henderson, 2003, “Evidence on the Political Economy of the Urbanization Process”, Journal of Urban Economics, 53(1),98—125.
Dietz, T., and E. A. Rosa, 1994, “Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence and Technology”, Human Ecology Review, 2 (1), 277—300.
Glaeser, E. L., and M. E. Kahn, 2010, “The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development”, Journal of Urban Economics, 67(3), 404—418.
Grossman, G., and A. Krueger, 1995, “Economic Environment and the Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics,110 (2), 353—377.
Han, L., W. Zhou, W. Li, and L. Li, 2014, “Impact of Urbanization Level on Urban Air Quality: A Case of Fine Particles (PM2.5) in Chinese Cities”, Environmental Pollution,194, 163—170.
Harris, J., and M. Todaro, 1970, “Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-sector Analysis”, American Economic Review, 60(1), 126—142.
Huber, J., 2000, “Towards Industrial Ecology: Sustainable Development as a Concept of Ecological Modernization”, Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 2(4), 269—285.
Jacobi, P., M. Kjellen, G. McGranahan, J. Songsore, and C. Surjadi, 2010, The Citizens at Risk: From Urban Sanitation to Sustainable Cities, Routledge.
Liu, Z., C. He, Q. Zhang, Q. Huang, and Y. Yang, 2012, “Extracting the Dynamics of Urban Expansion in China Using DMSP-OLS Nighttime Light Data from 1992 to 2008”, Landscape and Urban Planning, 106 (1), 62—72.
Lu, M., and Z. Chen, 2006, “Urbanization, Urban-Biased Policies, and Urban-Rural Inequality in China, 1987—2001”, Chinese Economy,39(3), 42—63.
Parikh, J., and V. Shukla, 1995, “Urbanization, Energy Use and Greenhouse Effects in Economic Development: Results from a Cross-national Study of Developing Countries”, Global Environmental Change,5(2), 87—103.
Reid, J. S., R. Koppmann, T. F. Eck, and D. P. Eleuterio, 2005, “A Review of Biomass Burning Emissions Part II: Intensive Physical Properties of Biomass Burning Particles”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 5, 799—825.
Roodman, D., 2009, “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata”, Stata Journal, 9(1), 86—136.
Sadorsky, P., 2014, “The Effect of Urbanization on CO2 Emissions in Emerging Economies”, Energy Economics, 41, 147—153.
Shehata, E. A. E., 2012, “GS2SLS: Stata Module to Estimate Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares Cross Sections Regression”,Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics.
Xu, B., and B. Lin, 2015, “How Industrialization and Urbanization Process Impacts on CO2 Emissions in China: Evidence from Nonparametric Additive Regression Models”, Energy Economics,48, 188—202.
(1)该变量单位为次/万平方公里,其数据最早可能年份为2001年,因而用于稳健性检验的样本时间跨度为2001—2013年。
(2)1998—2013年,东、中、西部地区的年均人口城市化率分别为54.33%、42.84%和39.66%。
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