基于国家海洋治理和全球气候变化的我国海洋灾害防治
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摘要
为建立和完善现代化的海洋灾害防治体系,提高我国海洋治理和应对全球气候变化的能力,文章以全球治理和国家治理为背景,在明确致灾因子、承灾体、灾害以及灾害风险和管理等基本概念及其内涵的基础上,分析全球气候变化背景下我国海洋灾害及其风险的特征以及海洋灾害防治的关键性和基础性科学问题,并提出我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的建议。研究结果表明:在全球气候变化的影响下,我国沿海地区的海洋灾害风险复杂多变且有所提升;提出以群-环-域为主体的体系架构,研究全球气候变化与区域海洋的响应和反馈、全球气候变化背景下海洋灾害与风险的特征和规律以及综合海洋灾害风险评估和海洋灾害防治等问题;在我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的过程中,应加强科学研究以及技术和信息支撑、促进区域和全球联动联防以及提高全社会对海洋灾害的认知和防范水平。
In order to establish and improve modern marine disaster prevention system and improve China′s marine governance and ability of responding to global climate change,global governance and national governance were taken as the background in this paper,to analyze the characteristics of marine disasters and risks in China under the background of global climate change,on the basis of defining relevant concepts and connotations of hazard factors,hazard bearing body,disasters and the risk and management,etc.,as well as the key and basic scientific issues of marine disaster resistance and governance.Suggestions on the construction of marine disaster governance system in China were put forward.The results showed that,under the influence of global climate change,the risk of marine disasters in China′s coastal areas was complex and various and had been increasing.Systemic research architecture of group-ring-domain was proposed in the paper,which was committed to studies on the global climate change and the response and feedback of regional oceans,the characteristics and laws of marine disasters under the background of global climate change,as well as comprehensive marine disaster risk assessment and marine disaster governance.In the process of establishing marine disaster governance system in China,scientific research,technical and information support should be strengthened,to promote regional and global joint preventions,and improve the whole society′s awareness and prevention level of marine disasters.
In order to establish and improve modern marine disaster prevention system and improve China′s marine governance and ability of responding to global climate change,global governance and national governance were taken as the background in this paper,to analyze the characteristics of marine disasters and risks in China under the background of global climate change,on the basis of defining relevant concepts and connotations of hazard factors,hazard bearing body,disasters and the risk and management,etc.,as well as the key and basic scientific issues of marine disaster resistance and governance.Suggestions on the construction of marine disaster governance system in China were put forward.The results showed that,under the influence of global climate change,the risk of marine disasters in China′s coastal areas was complex and various and had been increasing.Systemic research architecture of group-ring-domain was proposed in the paper,which was committed to studies on the global climate change and the response and feedback of regional oceans,the characteristics and laws of marine disasters under the background of global climate change,as well as comprehensive marine disaster risk assessment and marine disaster governance.In the process of establishing marine disaster governance system in China,scientific research,technical and information support should be strengthened,to promote regional and global joint preventions,and improve the whole society′s awareness and prevention level of marine disasters.
引文
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[2] 郭建锦,郭建平.大数据背景下的国家治理能力建设研究[J].中国行政管理,2015,360(6):73-76.
[3] 刘贞晔.全球治理与国家治理的互动:思想渊源与现实反思[J].中国社会科学,2016(6):36-46.
[4] 许耀桐.习近平的国家治理现代化思想论析[J].上海行政学院学报,2014,15(4):17-22.
[5] 蔡拓.全球治理与国家治理:当代中国两大战略考量[J].中国社会科学,2016(6):5-14.
[6] 杜飞进.中国现代化的一个全新维度:论国家治理体系和治理能力现代化[J].社会科学研究,2014(5):37-53.
[7] 姚会彦.全球治理时代海洋危机的思考与对策分析[J].海洋开发与管理,2010,27(11):9-12.
[8] 刘大海,丁德文,邢文秀,等.关于国家海洋治理体系建设的探讨[J].海洋开发与管理,2014,31(12):1-4.
[9] 黄任望.全球海洋治理问题初探[J].海洋开发与管理,2014,31(3):48-56.
[10] 胡志勇.积极构建中国的国家海洋治理体系[J].太平洋学报,2018,26(4):15-24.
[11] IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basic contri-bution of working group 1to the fifth assessment report ofthe Intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cam-bridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[12] 秦大河.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[13] 国家海洋局.1989—2017年中国海洋灾害公报[Z].1990-2018.
[14] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕.21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋环境的气候变化与风暴灾害风险探析[J].海洋开发与管理,2017,34(5):67-75.
[15] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕.21世纪海上丝绸之路海表温度异常与气候变率的相关性初探[J].海洋开发与管理,2017,34(4):41-49.
[16] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕.西太平洋暖池水体振荡与赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常的关联性初探[J].海洋科学,2015,39(9):77-85.
[17] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕,张启龙.台湾以东黑潮热输送变异及可能的气候效应[J].海洋学报,2012,34(5):31-38.
[18] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕.南海海表温时空演变与南海夏季风爆发早晚相关性初探[J].海洋学报,2014,36(3):94-103.
[19] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕.中国大陆东部相对湿度变化与海陆热力差异的关联性初探[J].高原气象,2017,36(6):1587-1594.
[20] 崔野,王琪.关于中国参与全球海洋治理若干问题的思考[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2018(1):12-17.
[21] 袁沙,郭芳翠.全球海洋治理:主体合作的进化[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2018(1):45-65.