基于Mann-Kendall的中国近岸海域海洋生态环境承载力评价与预警

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英文篇名：Carrying Capacity Assessment and Warning for China Nearshore Marine Ecological Environment Based on Mann–Kendall 作者：贾立斌 ; 吴伟宏 ; 袁国华 英文作者：JIA Libin;WU Weihong;YUAN Guohua;Chinese Academy of Natural Resource Economics;Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land & Resources; 关键词：海洋生态环境 ; 承载力 ; Mann-Kendall ; 评价 ; 预警 英文关键词：marine ecological environment;;carrying capacity;;Mann-Kendall;;assessment;;warning 中文刊名：STJJ 英文刊名：Ecological Economy 机构：中国自然资源经济研究院;国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室; 出版日期：2019-02-01 出版单位：生态经济 年：2019 期：v.35;No.338 基金：国家重点研发专项“土地资源资产负债表编制与土地资源承载力评价技术与应用”(2016YFC0503501);; 原国土资源部部门预算项目重大专题“国土资源环境承载力评价顶层设计与成果集成应用研究” 语种：中文; 页：STJJ201902037 页数：7 CN：02 ISSN：53-1193/F 分类号：212-217+228

摘要

文章构建了海洋生态环境承载力评价与预警的指标体系。选取2001—2016年中国近岸海域的海洋生态环境监测数据,开展了海洋生态环境承载力评价。基于Mann-Kendall检验方法,分析各预警指标在2001—2016年时间序列上的变化趋势。根据评价结果和趋势判断,对海洋生态环境承载力进行了预警等级判定。结果显示:中国近岸海域海洋生态环境承载力的预警等级为蓝色轻警。在此基础上,通过综合分析,提出中国近岸海域海洋生态环境保护与建设的对策建议,即重视并推动海洋生态环境承载力理论与调查分析等基础性研究,建立健全流域环境和近岸海域综合治理的管理体制和运行机制,以及始终坚持生态保护优先、强化监管护航。
        This paper constructs an index system for carrying capacity assessment and monitoring for China near shore marine ecological environment. The paper selected the Marine eco-environmental monitoring data of China's coastal waters from 2001 to 2016, and evaluated the carrying capacity for China near shore marine ecological environment. Based on the Mann-Kendall test method, the paper analyzed the change trend of each monitoring index in the time series of 2001-2016. According to the evaluation result and change trend, the warning grade of carrying capacity for marine ecological environment was determined. The results display that: The warning level of marine eco-environmental capacity in China's coastal waters is blue light alert. The paper puts forward some suggestions: We should attach importance and promote fundamental research on the carrying capacity of marine ecological environment, including the theory and investigation; we should establish and improve the management system and operational mechanism for the integrated management of the river basin environment and the coastal waters, and we should always give top priority to ecological protection and strengthen supervision.

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