山地农业种植结构演变特征及其调控途径分析——以贵州省为例
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摘要
为分析山地农业种植结构的演变特征及其主要驱动因子,制定种植结构的调控途径,采用C-PCA耦合模型(典型主成分分析)对贵州省1949~2013年种植结构演变的15个驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:(1)贵州省1949~2013年种植结构逐渐向市场导向型转变,经济作物比重上升,粮食作物比重下降,粮食作物和经济作物产量分别以7.24%和2.95%的速率增长;(2)通过C-PCA耦合模型的贡献率得出种植结构演变的主要驱动因子为总人口、城市化水平、仓储运输业比重、年均气温、年降水量和农业人口比重,其对应累计贡献率达86.04%;(3)调控山地农业种植结构,不仅需要发展山地高效复合型农业,提高种植系统抗灾能力,还需借助农产品生产、加工、销售云平台实现农业的可持续发展,从而为山地农业经济的发展提供重要支撑。
In order to analyze the evolution characteristics of planting structure in mountainous area,the main driving factors of planting structure,and to formulate regulation pathways of planting structure,the C-PCA coupling model( typical principal component analysis) was used in this paper to analyze the 15 driving factors of plant structure evolution from 1949 to 2013 in Guizhou Province. The results showed that:( 1) The planting structure of 1949-2013 in Guizhou Province was gradually transformed to market oriented,with the proportion of economic crops increased and the proportion of grain crops decreased,and the growth rates of grain crops and economic crops were 7. 24% and 2. 95%,respectively;( 2) The contribution rate of C-PCA coupling model showed that the main driving factors of plant structure evolution are total population,urbanization level,storage and transportation proportion, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and agricultural population proportion,and their corresponding cumulative contribution rate is 86. 04%;( 3) To regulation the cropping structure in mountainous area,both high efficient agriculture,and large data and cloud platform are needed to realize the sustainable development of agriculture and provide important support for the development of agricultural economy in mountainous area.
In order to analyze the evolution characteristics of planting structure in mountainous area,the main driving factors of planting structure,and to formulate regulation pathways of planting structure,the C-PCA coupling model( typical principal component analysis) was used in this paper to analyze the 15 driving factors of plant structure evolution from 1949 to 2013 in Guizhou Province. The results showed that:( 1) The planting structure of 1949-2013 in Guizhou Province was gradually transformed to market oriented,with the proportion of economic crops increased and the proportion of grain crops decreased,and the growth rates of grain crops and economic crops were 7. 24% and 2. 95%,respectively;( 2) The contribution rate of C-PCA coupling model showed that the main driving factors of plant structure evolution are total population,urbanization level,storage and transportation proportion, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and agricultural population proportion,and their corresponding cumulative contribution rate is 86. 04%;( 3) To regulation the cropping structure in mountainous area,both high efficient agriculture,and large data and cloud platform are needed to realize the sustainable development of agriculture and provide important support for the development of agricultural economy in mountainous area.
引文
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[8]徐群,程毅.上海人口城市化进程与农业经济发展关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010(20):95-97.【XU Q,CHENG Y.Study on the relationship between population urbanization and agricultural economic development in Shanghai[J].Statistics&Decision,2010(20):95-97.】
[9]高小升.全球气候谈判影响下的世界农业发展前景[J].中国农村经济,2014(2):82-91.【GAO X S.World agricultural development prospects under the influence of global climate negotiations[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(2):82-91.】
[10]程叶青.国内外农业地域结构研究进展与前沿科学问题[J].经济地理,2009,29(8):1360-1364.【CHENG Y Q.Progress studies and frontier scientific issues on agriculture territorial structure at home and abroad[J].Economic Geography,2009,29(8):1360-1364.】
[11]齐爱荣,周忠学,刘欢.西安市城市化与都市农业发展耦合关系研究[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2133-2142.【QI A R,ZHOU Z X,LIU H.The coupling relationship between urbanization and urban agriculture development in Xi’an city[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(11):2133-2142.】
[12]宋晓媚,周忠学,王明.城市化过程中都市农业景观变化及其生态安全评价——以西安市为例[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(3):835-844.【SONG XIAOMEI,ZHOU ZHONGXUE,WANG MING.Evaluation of the change of urban agricultural landscape and its ecological security under urbanization:a case study in Xi'an City[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(3):835-844.】
[13]戴明宏,张军以,王腊春,等.西南岩溶小流域农业可持续发展优化模式研究[J].中国岩溶,2015,34(3):254-259.【Dai M H,Zhang J Y,Wang L C,et al.Optimum modes of sustainable agricultural development in karst small watersheds of southwestern China[J].Carsologica Sinica,2015,34(3):254-259.】
[14]蒋黎,崔凯.中国城市化、农业土地利用强度和空间格局的变化研究——基于东、中、西部县域面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2014,(1):56-64.【JIANG L,CUI K.Urbanization,agricultural land use intensity and spatial pattern change in China—Based on panel data in eastern,central and western counties[J]Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014,(1):56-64.】
[15]邓振镛,张强,刘德祥,等.气候变暖对甘肃种植业结构和农作物生长的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(4):627-632.【DENG Z Y,ZHANG Q,LIU D X,et al.Effects of Climate Warming on Cropping Structure and Crop Growth in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(4):627-632.】
[16]刘德祥,董安祥,梁东升,等.气候变暖对西北干旱区农作物种植结构的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):831-836.【LIU D X,DONG A X,LIANG D S,et al.Affect of Climate Warming on Crops Planting Structure in Arid Zone of Northwestern China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(5):831-836.】
[17]蔡波,陈昭玖,翁贞林.粮食主产区农村劳动力转移对农业及粮食生产影响的调研分析——以江西为例[J].农林经济管理学报,2008,7(4):50-53.【CAI B,CHEN Z J,WENG G.Investigation and analysis of the influence of rural labor transfer on agriculture and grain production in major grain producing areas—Taking Jiangxi as an example,[J].Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management,2008,7(4):50-53.】
[18]吴清华,李谷成,周晓时,等.基础设施、农业区位与种植业结构调整——基于1995—2013年省际面板数据的实证[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):25-32.【WU Q H,LI G C,ZHOU X S,et al.Infrastructure,agricultural location and cropping structure adjustment—An Empirical Study Based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2013[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015(3):25-32.】
[19]贵州师范大学地理研究所.贵州省地表自然形态信息数据量测研究[M].贵州科技出版社,2000.
[20]贵州省统计局.贵州统计年鉴.2014[M].中国统计出版社,2014.
[21]MAZURUSE P.Canonical correlation analysis[J].Journal of Financial Economic Policy,2014,6(2):179-196.
[22]BRAAK C J F K.Canonical correspondence analysis:a new eigenvector method for multivariate director gradient analysis[J].Ecology,1986,67:1167-1179.
[23]张金屯.植被与环境关系的分析Ⅱ:CCA和DCCA的限定排序[J].山西大学学报(自然科学版),1992,15(3):292-298.【ZHANG J C.Analysis of relationships between vegetation and its environmental variables.Ⅱ.CCA and DCCA constrained ordinations[J].Journal of Shanxi University,1992,15(3):292-298.】
[24]NG S L,SIN F S.A diatom model for inferring sea level change in the coastal water of Hong Kong[J].Journal of Palelimnology,2003,30(4):427-440.
[25]周松秀,田亚平,刘兰芳.南方丘陵区农业生态环境脆弱性的驱动力分析——以衡阳盆地为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):938-944.【ZHOU S X,TIAN Y P,LIU L.F.Analysis of Driving Forces of Agricultural Eco-environmental Vulnerability in the Hilly Area in Southern China:A Case Study in Hengyang Basin[J].Progress in Geography,2011,30(7):938-944.】
[26]朱健宁,吴群.耕地资源数量变化及其驱动力分析——以无锡市为例[J].土壤,2008,40(2):193-199.【ZHU J N,WU Q.Variation of Acreage of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces—A Case Study of Wuxi City[J].Soils,2008,40(2):193-199.】
[2]TANG J S,XIA R Y,YUAN X U,et al.Causes and countermeasures to drought in mountainous agricultural area in central Guangxi[J].Carsologica Sinica,2006,34(5):1417-1423.
[3]刘珍环,杨鹏,吴文斌,等.近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(5):840-851.【LIU Z,YANG P,WU W B,et al.Spatio-temporal changes in Chinese crop patterns over the past three decades[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(5):840-851.】
[4]周迪,程慧平.中国农业现代化发展水平时空格局及趋同演变[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,14(1):25-35.[ZHOU D,CHENG H P.Evolvement of Convergence and Spatial Patterns of Agricultural Modernization in China[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University,2015,14(1):25-35.】
[5]李泽鸣,魏占民,白燕英,等.内蒙古引黄灌区种植面积与种植结构的时空演变[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(2):348-354.【LI Z M,WEI Z M,BAI Y Y,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution of Planting Area and Planting Structure in the Irrigated Areas along the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia[J].Arid Zone Research.2014,31(2):348-354.】
[6]钱陈,史晋川.城市化、结构变动与农业发展——基于城乡两部门的动态一般均衡分析[J].经济学(季刊),2006,6(1):57-74.【QIAN C,SHI J C.Urbanization,Structural Change and Agricultural Development:A Dynamical General Equilibrium Model[J].China Economic Quarterly,2006,6(1):57-74.】
[7]赵亮.城市化进程中农业生产结构调整及发展方向[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):151-154.【ZHAO L.The adjustment and development of agricultural production structure in the process of urbanization[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2016,37(1):151-154.】
[8]徐群,程毅.上海人口城市化进程与农业经济发展关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010(20):95-97.【XU Q,CHENG Y.Study on the relationship between population urbanization and agricultural economic development in Shanghai[J].Statistics&Decision,2010(20):95-97.】
[9]高小升.全球气候谈判影响下的世界农业发展前景[J].中国农村经济,2014(2):82-91.【GAO X S.World agricultural development prospects under the influence of global climate negotiations[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014(2):82-91.】
[10]程叶青.国内外农业地域结构研究进展与前沿科学问题[J].经济地理,2009,29(8):1360-1364.【CHENG Y Q.Progress studies and frontier scientific issues on agriculture territorial structure at home and abroad[J].Economic Geography,2009,29(8):1360-1364.】
[11]齐爱荣,周忠学,刘欢.西安市城市化与都市农业发展耦合关系研究[J].地理研究,2013,32(11):2133-2142.【QI A R,ZHOU Z X,LIU H.The coupling relationship between urbanization and urban agriculture development in Xi’an city[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(11):2133-2142.】
[12]宋晓媚,周忠学,王明.城市化过程中都市农业景观变化及其生态安全评价——以西安市为例[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(3):835-844.【SONG XIAOMEI,ZHOU ZHONGXUE,WANG MING.Evaluation of the change of urban agricultural landscape and its ecological security under urbanization:a case study in Xi'an City[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(3):835-844.】
[13]戴明宏,张军以,王腊春,等.西南岩溶小流域农业可持续发展优化模式研究[J].中国岩溶,2015,34(3):254-259.【Dai M H,Zhang J Y,Wang L C,et al.Optimum modes of sustainable agricultural development in karst small watersheds of southwestern China[J].Carsologica Sinica,2015,34(3):254-259.】
[14]蒋黎,崔凯.中国城市化、农业土地利用强度和空间格局的变化研究——基于东、中、西部县域面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2014,(1):56-64.【JIANG L,CUI K.Urbanization,agricultural land use intensity and spatial pattern change in China—Based on panel data in eastern,central and western counties[J]Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2014,(1):56-64.】
[15]邓振镛,张强,刘德祥,等.气候变暖对甘肃种植业结构和农作物生长的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(4):627-632.【DENG Z Y,ZHANG Q,LIU D X,et al.Effects of Climate Warming on Cropping Structure and Crop Growth in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(4):627-632.】
[16]刘德祥,董安祥,梁东升,等.气候变暖对西北干旱区农作物种植结构的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):831-836.【LIU D X,DONG A X,LIANG D S,et al.Affect of Climate Warming on Crops Planting Structure in Arid Zone of Northwestern China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(5):831-836.】
[17]蔡波,陈昭玖,翁贞林.粮食主产区农村劳动力转移对农业及粮食生产影响的调研分析——以江西为例[J].农林经济管理学报,2008,7(4):50-53.【CAI B,CHEN Z J,WENG G.Investigation and analysis of the influence of rural labor transfer on agriculture and grain production in major grain producing areas—Taking Jiangxi as an example,[J].Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management,2008,7(4):50-53.】
[18]吴清华,李谷成,周晓时,等.基础设施、农业区位与种植业结构调整——基于1995—2013年省际面板数据的实证[J].农业技术经济,2015(3):25-32.【WU Q H,LI G C,ZHOU X S,et al.Infrastructure,agricultural location and cropping structure adjustment—An Empirical Study Based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2013[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015(3):25-32.】
[19]贵州师范大学地理研究所.贵州省地表自然形态信息数据量测研究[M].贵州科技出版社,2000.
[20]贵州省统计局.贵州统计年鉴.2014[M].中国统计出版社,2014.
[21]MAZURUSE P.Canonical correlation analysis[J].Journal of Financial Economic Policy,2014,6(2):179-196.
[22]BRAAK C J F K.Canonical correspondence analysis:a new eigenvector method for multivariate director gradient analysis[J].Ecology,1986,67:1167-1179.
[23]张金屯.植被与环境关系的分析Ⅱ:CCA和DCCA的限定排序[J].山西大学学报(自然科学版),1992,15(3):292-298.【ZHANG J C.Analysis of relationships between vegetation and its environmental variables.Ⅱ.CCA and DCCA constrained ordinations[J].Journal of Shanxi University,1992,15(3):292-298.】
[24]NG S L,SIN F S.A diatom model for inferring sea level change in the coastal water of Hong Kong[J].Journal of Palelimnology,2003,30(4):427-440.
[25]周松秀,田亚平,刘兰芳.南方丘陵区农业生态环境脆弱性的驱动力分析——以衡阳盆地为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):938-944.【ZHOU S X,TIAN Y P,LIU L.F.Analysis of Driving Forces of Agricultural Eco-environmental Vulnerability in the Hilly Area in Southern China:A Case Study in Hengyang Basin[J].Progress in Geography,2011,30(7):938-944.】
[26]朱健宁,吴群.耕地资源数量变化及其驱动力分析——以无锡市为例[J].土壤,2008,40(2):193-199.【ZHU J N,WU Q.Variation of Acreage of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces—A Case Study of Wuxi City[J].Soils,2008,40(2):193-199.】