中国OFDI对IFDI规模和质量的影响:理论机制与实证
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摘要
本文在分析中国OFDI影响IFDI规模和质量的汇率传导机制和结构传导机制的基础上,构建了由实际汇率、产业结构、IFDI规模和质量决定方程组成的联立方程组,采用2003—2013年间中国与98个国家(地区)的双边投资面板数据,运用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)进行估计。研究结果表明:中国OFDI的双重传导机制对其IFDI规模和质量有着显著正向影响;尤其对于资源丰富和技术先进的高收入东道国,中国OFDI的结构传导机制能显著提升IFDI质量;金融危机之后,随着中国以产业结构优化为导向的多元化OFDI战略的加快实施,结构传导机制成为中国提升IFDI质量的主要途径。因此,增强中国OFDI和国内产业结构升级的匹配程度,优化外资进入结构成为当前中国提升IFDI质量的重要政策选择。
This paper estimated simultaneous equations including real exchange rate,industrial structure,and quantity and quality of IFDI by using the three-stage least squares( 3SLS) with a panel database of bilateral investment covering 98 countries during 2003 to2013 based on respectively analyzing the exchange rate transmission mechanism and structure transmission mechanism of China's OFDI on quantity and quality of IFDI. What the results showed are as follows: The dual transmission mechanisms of China's OFDI have significant positive effects on quantity and quality of IFDI; Especially for high-income countries with abundant resource and advanced technology,the structure transmission mechanism of China's OFDI can obviously improve quality of IFDI; After the global financial crisis,the structure transmission mechanism of China's OFDI has become the main mode of improving quality of IFDI under the implementation of diversified OFDI strategies guided by industrial structure optimization. As a result,strengthening the matching degree of OFDI and domestic industrial structure upgrading,and optimizing the foreign capital structure should be China's important policy choices to improve IFDI quality.
This paper estimated simultaneous equations including real exchange rate,industrial structure,and quantity and quality of IFDI by using the three-stage least squares( 3SLS) with a panel database of bilateral investment covering 98 countries during 2003 to2013 based on respectively analyzing the exchange rate transmission mechanism and structure transmission mechanism of China's OFDI on quantity and quality of IFDI. What the results showed are as follows: The dual transmission mechanisms of China's OFDI have significant positive effects on quantity and quality of IFDI; Especially for high-income countries with abundant resource and advanced technology,the structure transmission mechanism of China's OFDI can obviously improve quality of IFDI; After the global financial crisis,the structure transmission mechanism of China's OFDI has become the main mode of improving quality of IFDI under the implementation of diversified OFDI strategies guided by industrial structure optimization. As a result,strengthening the matching degree of OFDI and domestic industrial structure upgrading,and optimizing the foreign capital structure should be China's important policy choices to improve IFDI quality.
引文
[1]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势——基于跨国投入—产出分析[J].经济研究,2015(9):4-16.
[2]戴金平,王晓天.中国的贸易、境外直接投资与实际汇率的动态关系分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,22(11):34-44.
[3]何蓉.外汇超额供给的原因及对人民币升值压力的解释[J].经济评论,2006(1):76-82.
[4]贾妮莎,韩永辉,邹建华.中国双向FDI的产业结构升级效应:理论机制与实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2014(11):109-120.
[5]揭水晶,吉生保,温晓慧. OFDI逆向技术溢出与我国技术进步——研究动态及展望[J].国际贸易问题,2013(8):161-169.
[6]童锦治,赵川,孙健.出口退税、贸易盈余和外汇储备的一般均衡分析与中国的实证[J].经济研究,2012(4):124-136.
[7]吴丽华,傅广敏.人民币汇率、短期资本与股价互动[J].经济研究,2014(11):72-86.
[8]王义中,金雪军.外商直接投资、实际汇率升值与政策选择——基于中国的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(8):78-89.
[9]王英,刘思峰.中国经济增长与对外开放度的灰色关联分析[J].对外经贸实务,2003(2):5-7.
[10]DUNNING J H. Trade,Location of Economic Activity and the MNE:A Search for a Eclectic Approach[J]. International Allocation of Economic Activity,1977(1023):203-205.
[11]DUNNING J H. Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries:Towards A Dynamic or Developmental Approach[J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1981,117(1):30-64.
[12]EDWARDS S,GRENNEST J. Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries:Concepts and Measurement[R].NBER Working Papers,1989.
[13]GHOSH S,REITZ S. Capital Flows,Financial Asset Prices and Real Financial Market Exchange Rate:A Case Study for An Emerging Market,India[J]. Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers,2012.
[14]VERNON R. International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle[J]. International Economics Policies&Their Theoretical Foundations,1966,8(4):307-324.
[15]KOJIMA K. Direct Foreign Investment:A Japanese Model of Multinational Business Operations[J]. London:Croom Helm,1978.
[16]TOLENTINO P E E. Technological Innovation and the Third World Multinational Corporations[M]. London:Routledge,1992.
[17]ELIA S,MARIOTTI I,PISCITELLO L. The Impact of Outward FDI on the Home Country's Labour Demand and Skill Composition[J]. International Business Review,2009,18(4):357-372.
[18]BITZER J,KEREKES M. Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology across Borders? New Evidence[J].Economics Letters,2008,100(3):355-358.
[19]CUSHMAN D O. Real Exchange Rate Risk,Expectations,and the Level of Direct Investment[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1985,67(2):297-308.
[20]FROOT K A,STEIN J C. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment:An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach[R]. NBER Working Papers,2004.
[21]KOSTELETOU N,LIARGOVAS P. Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate Interlinkages[J]. Open Economies Review,2000,11(2):135-148.
[22]KUMAR N. Globalization and the Quality of Foreign Direct Investment[M]. New Delhi:Oxford University Press,2002.
[23]YAO S J,WANG P,ZHANG J,OU J H. Dynamic Relationship between China's Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investments[J]. China Economic Review,2016,40(9):54-70.
(1)长期实际利率影响了外资企业的预期收益,是外资企业进行对华投资决策时的重要参考指标;共同语言、共同边界和共同贸易区协定则反映两国间社会文化相似性、地理区位临近度和经济联系紧密程度,也会影响东道国对华投资规模。
(1)异常样本点主要包括开曼群岛、英属维京群岛等避税港,以及与中国内地存在边界效应的香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区。
(1)当东道国石油资源和金属资源出口占比高于总体均值时,定义该国为资源丰富东道国,反之则为资源贫乏东道国。同理,当东道国技术人员占比或研发支出占比高于总体均值时,定义该国为技术先进东道国,反之则为技术落后东道国。
(1)经济区位划分标准为东道国是否是OECD国家,是即为高收入东道国,反之,则为低收入东道国。
[2]戴金平,王晓天.中国的贸易、境外直接投资与实际汇率的动态关系分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,22(11):34-44.
[3]何蓉.外汇超额供给的原因及对人民币升值压力的解释[J].经济评论,2006(1):76-82.
[4]贾妮莎,韩永辉,邹建华.中国双向FDI的产业结构升级效应:理论机制与实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2014(11):109-120.
[5]揭水晶,吉生保,温晓慧. OFDI逆向技术溢出与我国技术进步——研究动态及展望[J].国际贸易问题,2013(8):161-169.
[6]童锦治,赵川,孙健.出口退税、贸易盈余和外汇储备的一般均衡分析与中国的实证[J].经济研究,2012(4):124-136.
[7]吴丽华,傅广敏.人民币汇率、短期资本与股价互动[J].经济研究,2014(11):72-86.
[8]王义中,金雪军.外商直接投资、实际汇率升值与政策选择——基于中国的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(8):78-89.
[9]王英,刘思峰.中国经济增长与对外开放度的灰色关联分析[J].对外经贸实务,2003(2):5-7.
[10]DUNNING J H. Trade,Location of Economic Activity and the MNE:A Search for a Eclectic Approach[J]. International Allocation of Economic Activity,1977(1023):203-205.
[11]DUNNING J H. Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries:Towards A Dynamic or Developmental Approach[J]. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1981,117(1):30-64.
[12]EDWARDS S,GRENNEST J. Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries:Concepts and Measurement[R].NBER Working Papers,1989.
[13]GHOSH S,REITZ S. Capital Flows,Financial Asset Prices and Real Financial Market Exchange Rate:A Case Study for An Emerging Market,India[J]. Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers,2012.
[14]VERNON R. International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle[J]. International Economics Policies&Their Theoretical Foundations,1966,8(4):307-324.
[15]KOJIMA K. Direct Foreign Investment:A Japanese Model of Multinational Business Operations[J]. London:Croom Helm,1978.
[16]TOLENTINO P E E. Technological Innovation and the Third World Multinational Corporations[M]. London:Routledge,1992.
[17]ELIA S,MARIOTTI I,PISCITELLO L. The Impact of Outward FDI on the Home Country's Labour Demand and Skill Composition[J]. International Business Review,2009,18(4):357-372.
[18]BITZER J,KEREKES M. Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology across Borders? New Evidence[J].Economics Letters,2008,100(3):355-358.
[19]CUSHMAN D O. Real Exchange Rate Risk,Expectations,and the Level of Direct Investment[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,1985,67(2):297-308.
[20]FROOT K A,STEIN J C. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment:An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach[R]. NBER Working Papers,2004.
[21]KOSTELETOU N,LIARGOVAS P. Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate Interlinkages[J]. Open Economies Review,2000,11(2):135-148.
[22]KUMAR N. Globalization and the Quality of Foreign Direct Investment[M]. New Delhi:Oxford University Press,2002.
[23]YAO S J,WANG P,ZHANG J,OU J H. Dynamic Relationship between China's Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investments[J]. China Economic Review,2016,40(9):54-70.
(1)长期实际利率影响了外资企业的预期收益,是外资企业进行对华投资决策时的重要参考指标;共同语言、共同边界和共同贸易区协定则反映两国间社会文化相似性、地理区位临近度和经济联系紧密程度,也会影响东道国对华投资规模。
(1)异常样本点主要包括开曼群岛、英属维京群岛等避税港,以及与中国内地存在边界效应的香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区。
(1)当东道国石油资源和金属资源出口占比高于总体均值时,定义该国为资源丰富东道国,反之则为资源贫乏东道国。同理,当东道国技术人员占比或研发支出占比高于总体均值时,定义该国为技术先进东道国,反之则为技术落后东道国。
(1)经济区位划分标准为东道国是否是OECD国家,是即为高收入东道国,反之,则为低收入东道国。
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