市场化进程与对外直接投资的技术溢出效应
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摘要
本文扩展新增长理论,建立了全要素生产率(TFP)内生于对外直接投资(ODI)和市场化程度的理论模型。通过中国2003-2012年的省际面板数据,实证研究在母国市场化进程中ODI对TFP的溢出效应。为了分析技术溢出的传导途径,利用DEA-Malmquist指数将TFP分解为技术水平变化、纯技术效率变化和规模效率变化三要素,测算了ODI对TFP及其三要素的边际效应。结果表明:第一,ODI与市场化对TFP的影响均显著为正;第二,ODI推动了技术进步,降低了规模效率,对纯技术效率的影响不显著;第三,ODI与市场化对TFP的影响具有互补性,随着市场化程度的加深,ODI对技术水平和纯技术效率的提升作用超过了对规模效率的降低作用,因此TFP提高。
By expanding New Growth Theory,this paper establishes the theoretical model which makes TFP endogenously determined by ODI and marketization. Using China's province-level panel data during 2003-2012,we empirically analyze the spillover effect of ODI on TFP under the process of China's market-oriented transformation. In order to investigate the channels through which ODI influences TFP,we use the DEA-Malmquist index to decompose TFP into three elements: technology level change( TC),pure technology efficiency change( PE) and scale efficiency change( SE); and further calculate the marginal effect of ODI on TFP and its elements. The empirical results reveal that: first,ODI and marketization significantly and positively impact TFP; second,ODI promotes TC,reduces SE,and has no significant effect on PE; third,as for the impact on TFP,the relationship between ODI and marketization is complementary. In other words,with the deepening of marketization,the promoting effect of ODI on TC and PE exceeds the decreasing effect of ODI on SE,and further contributes the improvement of TFP.
By expanding New Growth Theory,this paper establishes the theoretical model which makes TFP endogenously determined by ODI and marketization. Using China's province-level panel data during 2003-2012,we empirically analyze the spillover effect of ODI on TFP under the process of China's market-oriented transformation. In order to investigate the channels through which ODI influences TFP,we use the DEA-Malmquist index to decompose TFP into three elements: technology level change( TC),pure technology efficiency change( PE) and scale efficiency change( SE); and further calculate the marginal effect of ODI on TFP and its elements. The empirical results reveal that: first,ODI and marketization significantly and positively impact TFP; second,ODI promotes TC,reduces SE,and has no significant effect on PE; third,as for the impact on TFP,the relationship between ODI and marketization is complementary. In other words,with the deepening of marketization,the promoting effect of ODI on TC and PE exceeds the decreasing effect of ODI on SE,and further contributes the improvement of TFP.
引文
[1]Buckley P J,Clegg L J,Cross A R,Liu X,Voss H,Zheng P.The determinants of Chinese overseas direct investment[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2007,38(4):499-518.
[2]Kolstad I,Wiig A.What determines Chinese outward FDI?[J].Journal of World Business,2012,47(1):26-34.
[3]Ramasamy B,Yeung M,Laforet S.China’s outward foreign direct investment:Location choice and firm ownership[J].Journal of World Business,2012,47(1):17-25.
[4]赵伟,古广东,何元庆.外向FDI与中国技术进步:机理分析与尝试性实证[J].管理世界,2006(7):53-60.Zhao Wei,Gu Guangdong,He Yuanqing.Outward FDI and China’s technology progress[J].Management World,2006(7):53-60.
[5]陈岩.中国对外投资逆向技术溢出效应实证研究:基于吸收能力的分析视角[J].中国软科学,2011(10):61-72.Chen Yan.An Empirical study on China’s ODI reverse technology spillover:An absorptive capacity perspective[J].China Soft Science,2011(10):61-72.
[6]沙文兵.东道国特征与中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出——基于跨国面板数据的经验研究[J].世界经济研究,2014(5):60-73.Sha Wenbing.Characteristics of host countries and reverse technology spillovers of China’s outward FDI:An empirical study based on multinational panel data[J].World Economy Study,2014(5):60-73.
[7]沈能,赵增耀.空间异质性假定下OFDI逆向技术溢出的门槛效应[J].科研管理,2013,34(12):1-7.Shen Neng,Zhao Zengyao.A study on the threshold effect of reverse technology spillovers from OFDI based on the spatial heterogeneity hypothesis[J].Science Research Management,2013,34(12):1-7.
[8]尹建华,周鑫悦.中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应经验研究——基于技术差距门槛视角[J].科研管理,2014,35(3):131-139.Yin Jianhua,Zhou Xinyue.Empirical research on reverse technology spillover effect in China’s outward FDI—From the perspective of technology gap threshold[J].Science Research Management,2014,35(3):131-139.
[9]鲁万波,常永瑞,王叶涛.中国对外直接投资、研发技术溢出与技术进步[J].科研管理,2015,36(3):38-48.Lu Wanbo,Chang Yongrui,Wang Yetao.Outward foreign direct investment,R&D spillover and technical progress in China[J].Science Research Management,2015,36(3):38-48.
[10]Miller S,Upadhyay M.The effects of openness,trade orientation and human capital on total factor productivity[J].Journal of Development Economics,2000,63(2):399-423.
[11]Kogut B.Technological capabilities and Japanese foreign direct investment in the United States[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991,73(3):401-413.
[12]Head C Keith,Ries J C.Offshore production and skill upgrading by Japanese firms[J].Journal of International Economics,2002,58(1):81-105.
[13]Sun L.,Fulginiti L.,Chen Y.Taiwanese industry competitiveness when outward FDI is defensive[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2010,21(4):365-377.
[14]盛丹,王永进.市场化,技术复杂度与中国省区的产业增长[J].世界经济,2011(6):26-47.Sheng Dan,Wang Yongjin.Marketization,technology complexity and industry growth of China’s provinces[J].The Journal of World Economy,2011(6):26-47.
[15]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.基础设施的外部性在中国的检验:1988—2007[J].经济研究,2010(3):4-15.Liu Shenglong,Hu Angang.Test on the externality of infrastructure in China:1988-2007[J].Economic Research Journal,2010(3):4-15.
[16]Allen F,Qian J,Qian M.Law,finance and economic growth in China[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2005,77(1):57-116.
[17]张宇.制度约束、外资依赖与FDI的技术溢出[J].管理世界,2009(9):14-23.Zhang Yu.The institutional constraint,the dependence on foreign capital and the technology spillover of foreign direct investments[J].Management World,2009(9):14-23.
[18]蒋殿春,张宇.经济转型与外商直接投资技术溢出效应[J].经济研究,2008(7):26-38.Jiang Dianchun,Zhang Yu.Institutional constraints on FDI productivity spillovers:The case of China[J].Economic Research Journal,2008(7):26-38.
[19]Fre R,Grosskopf S,Norris M,Zhang Z.Productivitygrowth,technical progress and efficiency changes in industrialized countries[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(1):69-82.
[20]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.Zhang Jun,Wu Guiying,Zhang Jipeng.The estimation of China’s provincial capital stock:1952-2000[J].Economic Research Journal,2004(10):35-44.
[21]Helpman E,Melitz M J,Yeaple S R.Export versus FDI with heterogeneous firms[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[22]Blundell R,Bond S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
(1)在我国ODI存量中,中央和地方所属的国有企业所占比重长期在60%以上。
(2)截至2016年,我国ODI存量中位居前三位的行业依次是:租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业,而制造业比重仅占5%左右。
(3)截至2016年,我国ODI存量中位居前三位的地区分别是中国香港、英属维尔京群岛、开曼群岛,都是典型的避税港。
[2]Kolstad I,Wiig A.What determines Chinese outward FDI?[J].Journal of World Business,2012,47(1):26-34.
[3]Ramasamy B,Yeung M,Laforet S.China’s outward foreign direct investment:Location choice and firm ownership[J].Journal of World Business,2012,47(1):17-25.
[4]赵伟,古广东,何元庆.外向FDI与中国技术进步:机理分析与尝试性实证[J].管理世界,2006(7):53-60.Zhao Wei,Gu Guangdong,He Yuanqing.Outward FDI and China’s technology progress[J].Management World,2006(7):53-60.
[5]陈岩.中国对外投资逆向技术溢出效应实证研究:基于吸收能力的分析视角[J].中国软科学,2011(10):61-72.Chen Yan.An Empirical study on China’s ODI reverse technology spillover:An absorptive capacity perspective[J].China Soft Science,2011(10):61-72.
[6]沙文兵.东道国特征与中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出——基于跨国面板数据的经验研究[J].世界经济研究,2014(5):60-73.Sha Wenbing.Characteristics of host countries and reverse technology spillovers of China’s outward FDI:An empirical study based on multinational panel data[J].World Economy Study,2014(5):60-73.
[7]沈能,赵增耀.空间异质性假定下OFDI逆向技术溢出的门槛效应[J].科研管理,2013,34(12):1-7.Shen Neng,Zhao Zengyao.A study on the threshold effect of reverse technology spillovers from OFDI based on the spatial heterogeneity hypothesis[J].Science Research Management,2013,34(12):1-7.
[8]尹建华,周鑫悦.中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应经验研究——基于技术差距门槛视角[J].科研管理,2014,35(3):131-139.Yin Jianhua,Zhou Xinyue.Empirical research on reverse technology spillover effect in China’s outward FDI—From the perspective of technology gap threshold[J].Science Research Management,2014,35(3):131-139.
[9]鲁万波,常永瑞,王叶涛.中国对外直接投资、研发技术溢出与技术进步[J].科研管理,2015,36(3):38-48.Lu Wanbo,Chang Yongrui,Wang Yetao.Outward foreign direct investment,R&D spillover and technical progress in China[J].Science Research Management,2015,36(3):38-48.
[10]Miller S,Upadhyay M.The effects of openness,trade orientation and human capital on total factor productivity[J].Journal of Development Economics,2000,63(2):399-423.
[11]Kogut B.Technological capabilities and Japanese foreign direct investment in the United States[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991,73(3):401-413.
[12]Head C Keith,Ries J C.Offshore production and skill upgrading by Japanese firms[J].Journal of International Economics,2002,58(1):81-105.
[13]Sun L.,Fulginiti L.,Chen Y.Taiwanese industry competitiveness when outward FDI is defensive[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2010,21(4):365-377.
[14]盛丹,王永进.市场化,技术复杂度与中国省区的产业增长[J].世界经济,2011(6):26-47.Sheng Dan,Wang Yongjin.Marketization,technology complexity and industry growth of China’s provinces[J].The Journal of World Economy,2011(6):26-47.
[15]刘生龙,胡鞍钢.基础设施的外部性在中国的检验:1988—2007[J].经济研究,2010(3):4-15.Liu Shenglong,Hu Angang.Test on the externality of infrastructure in China:1988-2007[J].Economic Research Journal,2010(3):4-15.
[16]Allen F,Qian J,Qian M.Law,finance and economic growth in China[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2005,77(1):57-116.
[17]张宇.制度约束、外资依赖与FDI的技术溢出[J].管理世界,2009(9):14-23.Zhang Yu.The institutional constraint,the dependence on foreign capital and the technology spillover of foreign direct investments[J].Management World,2009(9):14-23.
[18]蒋殿春,张宇.经济转型与外商直接投资技术溢出效应[J].经济研究,2008(7):26-38.Jiang Dianchun,Zhang Yu.Institutional constraints on FDI productivity spillovers:The case of China[J].Economic Research Journal,2008(7):26-38.
[19]Fre R,Grosskopf S,Norris M,Zhang Z.Productivitygrowth,technical progress and efficiency changes in industrialized countries[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(1):69-82.
[20]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.Zhang Jun,Wu Guiying,Zhang Jipeng.The estimation of China’s provincial capital stock:1952-2000[J].Economic Research Journal,2004(10):35-44.
[21]Helpman E,Melitz M J,Yeaple S R.Export versus FDI with heterogeneous firms[J].American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[22]Blundell R,Bond S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
(1)在我国ODI存量中,中央和地方所属的国有企业所占比重长期在60%以上。
(2)截至2016年,我国ODI存量中位居前三位的行业依次是:租赁和商务服务业、金融业、采矿业,而制造业比重仅占5%左右。
(3)截至2016年,我国ODI存量中位居前三位的地区分别是中国香港、英属维尔京群岛、开曼群岛,都是典型的避税港。
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